Draft Over/Under

It's become fairly common for people to mock the mock drafts and other prediction based analysis of the NFL Draft by stating (correctly, for the most part) that very few, if any, people have watched enough of each individual draft prospect to have an accurate feel for what kind of player someone will be in the NFL. And you know what? I totally agree. If the NBA Draft is an inexact science, the NFL Draft is drunken horseshoes. Sure, some people are more skilled than others but nobody's got a perfect record and everybody has some embarrassing gaffes we can all point to at some point in their careers. With that said, I fucking love both the NFL and NBA Drafts and I love blathering on with my opinions on the players in these drafts even more. The ability to spew my opinion across a platform that reaches tens of people is why I signed a contract with G:TB (that and a free bottle of Jameson.../shakes fist at Rob) in the first place, so I'm certainly not going to miss out on a chance to do such on one of the biggest days on the sports dork calendar. Now that I've gotten that out of the way, here's my top 5 most overrated/underrated NFL Draft prospects: First Round Edition.

Overrated:

CJ Spiller: I love CJ Spiller. He's versatile, electric in the open field and as a good a receiver out of the backfield as you're going to find coming out of college. This is more a matter of where he'll be drafted than my evaluation of his abilities. He's going to end up going in the top 10-12 picks. You could make the case that that's too high for any running back. Much less one who isn't an every down back, hasn't shown a proclivity for picking up tough, inside yardage and isn't all that big or physical. I have no problem with Spiller going in the 20s but there's no way I think he's worth a top 10 pick.

Anthony Davis: I know little of Davis other than the bits and pieces of Rutgers games I watched over the past two years. However, I keep hearing the same things about him. Maturity issues. Weight issues. Lack of work ethic. Yeah, I'll pass on a highly talented yet unmotivated tackle if I'm drafting in the first round. If you remember Winston Justice, you might want to do the same, NFL GM.

Jason Pierre-Paul: Another physical freak. This one isn't supposed to be a head case though. He is, however, extremely raw, as he played just one season of major college football. On top of that, he wasn't all that productive. Just 6.5 sacks while playing in the Big East and on the opposite side of All-American George Selvie? Hmmmmmm. I'd be concerned about spending a 1st round pick on a pass rusher with those types of red flags. But, just in case that wasn't enough there's this: The last DE to play JUCO Football and then find success in the NFL was Leonard Little. So, if you draft Jason Pierre-Paul you're either drafting a bust who'll be out of the league in 3-4 years or a guy who's going to rack up DUIs and possibly kill someone.

Taylor Mays: This may be a stretch as it now seems as though Mays could possibly fall out of the first round, but I've driving the anti-Taylor Mays bandwagon for a couple of years now so I see no reason to hand over the reins on draft night. Mays has everything you could ever want in a safety...except for instincts and anticipation. Which, if all things are fairly equal, are the most important aspects of safety play. Here's what I want to know about my safeties: Can you anticipate what's coming and react quickly enough to stop it or minimize the damage? Nothing I've ever seen from Mays says he can do that consistently. Which might be why he left USC with only 2 career interceptions.

DeMaryius Thomas: A big, physical but extremely raw WR who played in a triple option scheme in college and (I'm guessing) didn't run the full menu of routes he'll be expected to in the NFL. I'm generally down on big WRS who excel due to their physical gifts in college and I never expect them to have much impact early in their careers (see: Kelly, Malcom or Thomas, Devin). The fact that Thomas played in a Georgia Tech offense that basically asked him to run go routes half the time makes me even more skeptical of the impact potential of him.

Underrated:

Eric Berry: I know, how can a consensus top 5-10 pick be underrated? Here's how: When teams that could use a safety aren't drafting him. Not because of a lack of need but because of an antiquated model that says you don't draft a safety high in the 1st round due to a lack of value at that spot. I understand the logic behind this, I just happen to disagree with it. Most experts will tell you that the NFL is now a passing league or "QB driven" and few, if any, will disagree with this notion. Doesn't that mean that the relative value of a game changing free safety has been enhanced by the overall direction of the league? I would certainly think so. Defenses, nay top defenses have been built around the talents of safeties like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu in the modern NFL. If you can get a player like Berry (who many project as an Ed Reed level impact safety) to man your back line for the next 10 years without overlooking another, more glaring need, why wouldn't you?

Kyle Wilson: A big, physical corner who's been a starter at a quality program for 3-4 years and who brings you an added dimension as a return man. In my opinion, Wilson is the second best corner in the draft behind Joe Haden. Some may point to the lower level of competition that Wilson faced in the WAC, but any fears about his ability to handle a higher level of athlete should've been put to rest by his stellar performance during the week of the Senior Bowl.

Maurkice Pouncey: Arguably the most versatile O-Lineman in this year's draft (It's either he or Trent Williams). A starter since day one of his freshman year at Florida. Team leader, great character and plays with a nasty streak. He was never a secret to me, even going back to high school (he and his twin brother were arguably the biggest impact recruits in the state of Florida as seniors in high school) but I remember when I first knew he'd be a 1st rounder. His freshman year, he played LSU All-American (and eventual top 5 pick) Glenn Dorsey in Baton Rouge all night long with only occasional help, and he fought him to a stalemate. Think about how impressive that is for a true freshman guard (He played both center and guard at UF). Pouncey will play 10-12 years and make at least 6 Pro Bowls. Mark it down.

Brandon Graham: Call him the anti-Vernon Gholston. His measurables don't wow anyone but he was always around the ball in college and led the nation in TFL last year. The he went out and destroyed everybody he went up against at the Senior Bowl. Maybe not a high impact DE/LB but one who will give you 100% on every play, will maintain responsibilities in the run and pass game while still managing to rack up 9-12 sacks a year.


Jerry Hughes: Another guy who won't blow you away with his size/speed ratio but also another guy who was extremely productive in college (led nation in sacks). Hughes plays well in space, so he projects well as a 3-4 LB. While I'm no D-Line expert, I believe that sack production (much like rebounding in basketball) is one thing that almost always transfers from college to the pros. If Hughes is available in the late 1st round, you grab him. His name doesn't hurt either.

Now, since I'm the resident expert on all things University of Florida here at G:TB, I figured I'd include my brief thoughts on the (many) Gators who figured to be drafted over the next 3 days.

Tim Tebow: Look at Jerry's analysis here. I concur with nearly all of it.

Joe Haden: Best corner in the draft. Physical, fast, great character and work ethic and still fairly new to the position, so there's still a lot of upside here.

Carlos Dunlap: When was the last time a player dropped from a sure fire top 10 pick in December to a fringe second rounder by draft time? I can't recall a drop like this in all my years of draft watching. Dunlap had effort issues at times at Florida and (in the interviews I've seen) doesn't come off as a "high motor" kind of guy but dude's a freak of the highest order and was pretty damn productive at Florida over the last two seasons. His DUI during the week of the SEC Championship game certainly has a lot to do with his precipitous drop but this seems extreme considering that was his first ever transgression that we know of. If he's properly motivated by this, somebody's getting a steal and if I needed a pass rusher late in round 1, I'd look long and hard at Dunlap.

Aaron Hernandez: Another guy who was going to be a first round pick in December who's slipped into Round 2. However, this has less do to with the player than the overall depth of this draft. Hernandez is a player who will be a huge asset in the passing game (both as a TE and an H-Back) provided that he's drafted by a team that will be creative with him. Ultimately, as a fan, I'd like to see a team like Philadelphia, Tennessee, Green Bay, or even Arizona get him.

Jermaine Cunningham: A bit of an unsung hero for Florida over the past few years due to a combination of his quiet consistency and lack of explosive plays. He rarely overwhelmed you but he was always creating pressure and involved. I think he can play in space a bit and could be valuable for a 3-4 team. However, I'd like to see him go to a team that values speed on defense like Indy or New Orleans.

Brandon Spikes: It's no secret, I love Brandon Spikes. He was a warrior at Florida while being a versatile and impactful defender. However, he's timed out as much slower than most had expected. The stopwatch says that Spikes isn't a MLB which, not surprisingly, has caused his stock to plummet. Here's my take: Spikes was most effective at Florida in the 'Joker' package where he played as a standup DE and either rushed or dropped into coverage (where he's better than he gets credit for). Spikes' future is as a LB in a 3-4 system. If he's drafted by a 3-4 team he'll not only make a roster but eventually become a starter.

Major Wright: Big hitter, questionable (imo) instincts in the passing game. He timed out much, much faster than most Florida observers imagined he would and, consequently, is sitting higher on draft boards (2nd/3rd round) than most originally thought. I like Major Wright and will never, ever forget this hit but I'm not sold on him as an NFL Safety.

Riley Cooper: Big, fast, physical...and that's just with the ladies. Thank you, thank you. I'll be here all week. Seriously though, the guy's been through half the co-eds in Gainesville. He's a big WR with good hands and lots of toughness. He's still pretty raw but he's got the type of upside you want if you're taking a WR in rounds 3-5.

One last thing: My super sleeper is Linval Joseph. He's a massive DT from East Carolina and a Gainesville native. He nearly went to Florida but had his offer rescinded at the last minute. In high school he was just a big, fat kid with tons of athleticism. In fact, Florida wasn't sure if they wanted him as an OL or DL. Eventually, he ended up at ECU and changed his body while increasing his athleticism. He could project for either a 3-4 or a 4-3 and he's not going to last thru round 2. Place your bets accordingly.