Friday, October 17, 2008

G:TB's Week 7 NFL Picks - Rut Ro, Raggy


Tennessee @ Kansas City (+8)
Brodie Croyle is the quintessential Alabama quarterback - white, floppy-haired, dating a cheerleader, moderately talented, completely incapable of carrying a team. And as much as I love Brodie Croyle, he's as unqualified to be an NFL starting quarterback as Sarah Palin is to be President. Much like Jay Barker before him and John Parker Wilson over the next 3-4 years, Croyle is nothing so much as the NFL QB equivalent of a fair catch. By starting Croyle, the Chiefs are giving up. They're focusing on not getting anyone injured, and living the 'discretion is the better part of valor' credo until they can draft a real signal-caller next Spring. Tennessee wins this game by a lot more than 8.

Detroit @ Houston (-8.5)
The Detroit Lions are Washington Nationals awful. There’s really no need to have a write up about this game, but, if you must… Detroit is 2nd to last in the NFL in both Rushing and Passing defense. They are starting a minor league hockey player named Dan Orlovsky at QB whose rating sits firmly at 59.6 through 4 games (and was seen gloriously running out of the back of the endzone during a scramble last week like he had no idea what the white lines meant around the field). And the team just traded their best offensive weapon on Tuesday (who they mysteriously stopped using over the past 2 years). This will be ugly…Houston 31, Lions 6.

Jets (-3) at Oakland
Much has been said about the sad state of Al Davis’ 2008 Oakland Raiders. Most of it is negative. And some of it is true. The owner is morphing into the host of Tales from the Crypt, the interim coach is a loser, the QB is fat, the defensive coordinator looks like an extra in Sons of Anarchy, the kicker is a date rapist, etc. On the field, the team has performed poorly, still waiting for its two young offensive prospects to get it going on the field. Unfortunately, this isn’t the week that McFadden and Russell will get their groove back. They will struggle against a surprisingly stout Jets defense that plays well against the run (giving up 69 yards per game on the ground - clicks) and gets at the quarterback (18 sacks in 5 games). Look for the Jets D to pressure Russell into a couple bad picks this week. G:TB predicts that Jets safety Kerry Rhodes will get his first INT of the year this week as he snares an errant 50 yard bomb that Russell uncorks. Oakland will show why they’ve only scored 81 points in five games this year.

The match-up between the Jets offense and the Raiders defense also tilts in New York’s favor. Oakland has given up at least 24 points in each of their four losses, though it came against some formidable foes (SD, Denver, New Orleans, Buffalo). And they’ve given up an average of 130 yards on the ground in those games. The Jets new and improved blocking contingent, bolstered by Alan Faneca and Tony Richardson, should be able to create openings for Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.

The recipe for Jets success is to be balanced enough that their 83 year old QB doesn’t have to break a hip trying to make plays. After an ugly win last week over Cincy last week, the Jets will be focused and ready to feast on the underbelly of their schedule (home against Cincy, at Oakland, home against KC, at Buffalo, home against St. Louis). The Jets will score enough and defend enough to walk away unscathed. Prediction: Jets cover, winning 23-14.

Seattle @ Tampa Bay (-10.5)
The easiest money in the NFL is right here. Not in the actual game mind you, but in betting that the folks at NBC will show us an old team photo of the Packers featuring Jon Gruden and Mike Holgrem as Al Michaels discusses how much respect these two coaches have for one another. I swear to god, if I lived in Vegas I'd put my entire 401K on it. Unfortunately (or fortunately if you're my septum) I don't live in Vegas so I'll have to find some other ways to make that extra cash we all so desperately need right now. In somewhat related news, John Madden won't be broadcasting this game as he says he's too worn out and needs a week off from, you know, sitting on a luxury bus, eating Bloomin' Onions and working for 5 hours a week. While this story certainly passes the smell test, I have it on good authority that Madden's not coming to Tampa because he curb stomped a stripper at Mons last time he was in town because Monte Kiffin dared him too. Monte's a bit of a sadist you see. Everybody always wonders why he's never approached for a head coaching job. Well, that's easy. He has a trunk full of dead hookers (and Shaun King...don't ask) buried in his backyard. Its a massive cover up and people all over Tampa are in on it but, honestly, things much worse than this happen in Tampa on a weekly basis (Don't believe me? Have TJ send you some of the articles he sends me each week). Anyway, as for this game, I'm a bit weary about taking the Bucs when they're giving up so many points but its a rare home night game and Seneca Wallace is starting for the first time since he teamed with Hiawatha Jones (seriously) in the backfield at Iowa State. Tampa's going to score at least one defensive touchdown and Jeff Garcia will be just efficient enough to score another TD or two. Frankly, I'd be surprised if the Seahawks break double digits. Take the Bucs.

103 comments:

Rhymenocerous said...

Each of the first four picks is us taking the favorite playing against a bad team. There's no way we'll get more than 2 of these right. A couple of these doggies are gonna show something. There's too much parity for this NOT to happen.

I think Seattle may not suck as much as predicted against. Nothing personal against you Bucs fans out there, but I'm not remotely sold on them. Gruden, Griese and Garcia? Gay Guys Galore.

rob said...

but with the exception of the hawks, the bad teams are awesomely bad.

TJ said...

Seattle is awful. So is Detroit. And St. Louis. And Cincy. And Cleveland.

Rhymenocerous said...

Cleveland just beat the defending world champs. And Detroit almost (shoulda) won last week. Tennessee struggles to score and Houston has one win. Parity, parity, parity folks.

I still say G:TB won't do better than split those first four picks (Tampa, Jets, Tennessee, Houston). I'll bet ten smackers against any/all who thinks we'll get three of those four picks right.

Who's up for some red hot second derivative action?

Greg said...

I'm in for some red-hot derivative action. I say at least three of the gheorghian picks come through.

Also, that picture sums up both Teej and Jamie perfectly: surprised and smug.

TJ said...

I refuse to root for rob...

Zoltan said...

Can we please get some oversight for rhymnocervan's newly created market?

rob said...

wait, what did i do to you?

TJ said...

Root for the Red Sox.

rob said...

well, yeah, there's that

Rhymenocerous said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Rhymenocerous said...

The bet is this:

If 3 of these 4 teams cover (Jets -3, Houston -8.5, Tampa -10.5, Tennessee -8), I lose. If not, I win.

Who else wants in? I will mail an Alex Hamilton if I lose. I pay on my bets (unlike my dues).

Mark said...

Didn't Greg say he'd take the bet?

As for the Bucs, I think I've made it clear that I don't think they're remotely close to good offensively and that Gruden frustrates me to no end. HOWEVA, the defense is still really talented and Kiffin feasts on bad QBs. Whether its Seneca or Chaz Frye, the Bucs are going to turn Seattle over multiple times.

Zoltan said...

Manny rocks:

“I want to thank the fans for their great support. I think it was a great trade,” he said regarding the July 31 deal that got him out of Boston. “I just want to go home and spend some time with my family. I want to see who is the highest bidder. Gas is up and so am I.”

http://news.bostonherald.com/sports/baseball/other_mlb/view/2008_10_17_Manny_Ramirez_packs_up__stays_mum/

rob said...

guarantee he gets more than $20m/season for at least 3 years after his work in los angeles. just hope it ain't in the bronx.

Zoltan said...

I would love to see Manny in pinstripes. This is, of course, a decision made with my heart and not my head. He is one of a handful of Red Sox that I actually like. Would he have to shave off the braids?

Whitney said...

Statements (interrogative) like Zoltan's last one make fellows a couple of generations older than we shake their heads ruefully and wonder for the future.

Geoff said...

Whitney, enough with the McCain bashing...

rob said...

if anyone cares, marah is playing an acoustic show at jammin' java in vienna on november 16.

if you don't, please carry on with the comedy.

Whitney said...

Doesn't matter how old I get (enough already, Mark), doesn't matter that I know how his name is pronounced . . . seeing "Yanks' Wang" on ESPN.com still makes me chuckle like Beavis most every time.

TJ said...

Greg Robinson, 8-33 as Syracuse coach. That's a kickass .195 winning percentage.

Whitney said...

TJ, you've got a mind like a calculator.

Or maybe you've got a calculator like a calculator.

rob said...

nice to see the tribe whip delaware in newark, even if the hens are a little down this year.

rob said...

alabama's trailing for the first time all season. that's pretty remarkable.

rob said...

that's a little more drama than i'd hoped for against ole miss, especially up 21 at the half.

Geoff said...

My favorite park of the Sox game so far has been Steve Harvey's witty one-liners.

rob said...

tbs may well need to call in the georgia national guard to make sure the building doesn't get overrun with lunatic sox fans tonight. this is an all-time gaffe.

oh, and bj upton is a beast among men.

rob said...

chip caray: "you haven't missed much"

fuck off and die, assface.

rob said...

texas really good or mizzou vastly overrated?

Rhymenocerous said...

Please please please tell me Colt McCoy's sister is at least 18.

Rhymenocerous said...

Now that I've read the back posts, I have to say I'm 100% against Mr. Zoltan's claim that Manny as a Yank is a good thing. There are already enough aging stiffs signed in 2009. Between Matsui, Damon and Posada, we have enough big money committed to guys who are aging and/or terrible at defense.

I hope to Jesus that they make a run at Peavy, though. But it sounds like he wants to stay in the NL and has a no-trade clause. I would take him over fat CC in a heartbeat.

TJ said...

I fucking hate the Red Sox.

Rhymenocerous said...

So the Tribe has righted the ship, huh? They may sniff the playoffs this year, even if they lose to JMU. If they go 8-3 and have a 6-2 conference record, they may make a run at the post-season.

Rhymenocerous said...

Youklis looks like a man-fisting leather gay.

rob said...

and if loving him is wrong, i don't want to be right.

somebody pick a 5th game before i finish this bottle of wine and do something stupid.

Rhymenocerous said...

Giants cover at home against the Niners. Happy Rob?

Sneaky good TV right now is LSU-USC on the WWL. My boy Stevey Garcia has a chance to cement himself as a big Cock.

rob said...

very happy, thank you.

rob said...

appy state/ga southern in a typical 1-aa barnburner.

rob said...

is there a worse bcs conference team than washington state?

TJ said...

The Fighting Willinghams?

rob said...

not even close.

TJ said...

Indiana?

rob said...

wazzu's been outscored 297-66 by their 7 division 1 opponents. indiana's bad, but not that bad.

rob said...

teej - you get to hate the sox for at least one more day in 2008.

rob said...

kelly pavlik seems to be in a bit of a pickle.

rob said...

joba, joba, joba. the sox winning is no excuse for disregarding the laws of the land. somebody take teejay's keys.

http://www.newsday.com/sports/ny-spjoba1019,0,4582570.story

Prasopchok said...

Make your notebook fast

Make your notebook fast.
http://ccnotebooktips.blogspot.com/

TJ said...

Looks like I might be skipping the entire World Series again this year...

TJ said...

Rhymo and Jerry both took the Giants, in the comments...and split on the Jets game. G:TB has the Favres...

Mark said...

If you dont think I tried to look up Colt McCoy's sister , well, you dont know me very well.

Also, after Rhyme-O decided to chide everyone for taking a favorite playing against a bad team, he took the Giants at home over the 49ers. I dont blame him, but I do find it interesting after he made such a fuss about how wrong all the picks were going to be.

Finally, its nice to see Mizzou get their shit handed to them. They're as soft as Chase Daniel's gut. Also, I'm a little tired of everybody telling me how much better the Big 12 is in comparison to the SEC. Just because you play more entertaining football doesn't make you better.

Mark said...

Kind of a big night in the Tampa area this evening.

Mark said...

Remember how Cam Cameron told Miami fans that one of the reasons the Dolphins selected Tedd Ginn was because of his versatility? Well, Ginn currently doesnt return kicks or punts for the Dolphins. Oh yeah, he's also the third receiver behind undrafted free agents Davone Bess and Greg Camarillo.

Well done.

Mark said...

Dallas down 21-7 already. Yep, thats a nice way to start a Sunday.

Mark said...

The announcers in this Miami-Baltimore game don't seem to understand what constitutes the Wildcat package. At least 3 times they've talked about Chad Pennington running the Wildcat. Ummm, no fellas...thats just a normal offensive set.

Mark said...

Is Rob napping so he can stay up for tonight's Game 7? Is TJ hanging out with the homeless guy from in front of his office?

I'm lonely over here.

TJ said...

Hi Mark!

Trent Edwards is 14 of 15 right now.

TJ said...

I hate the Red Sox so very very much, but you know god damn well they're winning this game tonight.

Rhymenocerous said...

My Giants pick was done at the stroke of midnight, on orders of Napoleon. It was the first unpicked line I saw that I had a thought on.

And the Giants are winning by 7 at the half (spread was 6). Clearly, I'm clairvoyant.

Mark said...

Hey Teej!

You're right about the Sox, my Dad and I had that conversation a few minutes ago.

And seriously, there's a lot going on in Tampa-St. Pete tonight. Numerous strip clubs will probably only be 3/4 full.

Mark said...

Why do we all let somebody the size of a 5th grader boss us around?

TJ said...

I really hope you all get to see Chad Pennington's pick six...it was vintage Chaz.

Mark said...

I did, and it was.

By the way, if having cable give you Giants-49ers and Phins-Ravens as your two 1 pm games on a Sunday doesn't make you order DirectTV, no amount of Jimmy Kimmel is going to either.

TJ said...

We work at Redskins Park?

TJ said...

So, the Chieves...not so good, eh?

Mark said...

I'm so very confused by TJ's Redskins Park comment.

TJ said...

"Why do we all let somebody the size of a 5th grader boss us around?"

Does that help?

Mark said...

Yes...that clears it up nicely.

TJ said...

So basically, if you're playing a home NFC South game, you blow divisional opponents out?

TJ said...

Phillip Rivers showing zero field vision...

TJ said...

By the way, that safety just now in Ginats game...a great moment in gambling...

TJ said...

I'm a terrible gambler, as we've mentioned often, but I had a 6-2 start to the day in the Miramax pool, and I sure would enjoy the Skins scoring another TD.

rob said...

leadership, boys. it's called leadership. i'm a straight shooter with upper management written all over me.

rob said...

the incompetence at quarterback in this jets/raiders game is redefining the position.

Mark said...

Peter Gibbons you are not, Rob.

TJ said...

The 4pm games did not go so well for me.

rob said...

mark, talk to me. what's cadillac's role gonna be when he returns?

Mark said...

Just got back from a little dinner and drinks action. As for Caddy, I'm not so sure. The Bucs have a lot of options in the backfield. I'd like to see him assume Dunn's role but Gruden has a hard on for him so I doubt that happens. I'm hopeful they'll slowly work him back in the rotation and give him 8or so carries a game and use him in the screen game as way to get him in space where his cutback style is very effective. Honestly, I have no fucking clue.

TJ said...

Oh boy, Dickie V in the front row...

rob said...

rocco baldelli, baybee. paisano, ptper. fuuuuuck.

Mark said...

Okay, after doing what Rob wanted (what else is new), I've got a few observations after the first ahlf of this game:

- Cris Collinsworth is wearing his cell phone on his hip right now. First time I've seen that in the booth. I imagine he's waiting for a call from his weed dealer.

- Earnest Graham is second in the NFL in yards per carry. Of course, he's averaging less than 12 carries a game. I'll never understand why the Bucs refuse to use him more.

- If Jeff Garcia loses his job to Brian Griese for anything other than an injury or being caught blowing Jeremy Truebllod in the bathroom stall then Gruden should be sent to a mental hospital.

-Finally, I'm wondering if Rhyme still thinks Seattle doesn't suck, or if he's too drunk to care since his Jets lost to fucking Oakland and managed a grand total of 13 points today.

Mark said...

One more thing:

Last week I talked about how the Bucs don't even have enough dynamic offensive playmakers to run the Wildcat. Well, tonight they ran it...with Warrick Dunn at QB and Graham running the jet sweep. Struck fear in the hearts of defensive coordinators all across the NFC South, I'm sure.

Mark said...

Strike 'em out, throw 'em out...dagger.

rob said...

yup. papi's not papi right now, and i think that was ball 4. lotta ball left.

Mark said...

I never realized how much balding was going on with Pedroia until these past couple of weeks. Good thing he's a hell of a player because he ain't got much going for him otherwise.

TJ said...

Go Rays

Mark said...

Is there a way I can get Cris Collinsworth to announce every football game my favorite teams are involved in? Because that would be awesome.

rob said...

vitale has as good a chance as varitek of getting a hit there.

Mark said...

Dickie V's got a nice compact swing.

Mark said...

Hey look at that, the Bucs aren't going to cover. Fuck...and Rhyme...I'm sorry.

rob said...

i feel these rays fans' anguish. this shit is wrenching, even if you've seen it before. the first time, it's ungodly so.

rob said...

man, giant huevos on david price. tho i'm not sure drew went around. as usual, tbs is right there with the replay.

Mark said...

Well, Hello David Price.

rob said...

jason bartlett just exhaled.

and drew did go around.

rob said...

wait. do the rays have cheerleaders? that's horrible.

rob said...

ump with the makeup call after bay should have been out.

rob said...

that's a tough team tampa's got. took a lot of guts to win that game.

Mark said...

Even Rob would have to admit that this Rays team is tough to root against.

Mark said...

And there you go. Thanks, Rob.

rob said...

yeah, can't really begrudge them that win. they earned it. except jonny gomes. i hate that cocksucker.

rob said...

pretty sweet crowd surf by upton there.

Zoltan said...

Grant Greenberg is live at Kenmore Square surrounded by cops prepared for a riot. There is just one fat crying Masshole there with them. Otherwise it's just Grant and some cops on horses who are now heading back to the stables.

I can't wait to go to work tomorrow.

rob said...

wow, that's a powerfully douchebaggy post. well done.

Zoltan said...

Douchebaggery is one of the few things I do well. Thanks for noticing.