Friday, October 24, 2008

G:TB's Week 8 NFL Picks

At this point you would think we weren't even trying...

Buffalo @ Miami (+1.5)
This is dumb. Really dumb. I'm about to pick a road favorite to cover against a team that drilled New England and San Diego this season. Stupid, stupid, stupid. Somebody stop me. Wait, New England and San Diego are shadows of themselves for a number of reasons in 2008? The Dolphins lost by two touchdowns to Joe Flacco at home last week? Trent Edwards leads the AFC in completion percentage, is second in passer rating, and has only thrown two picks? Ah, fuck it. I like the Bills.

Arizona @ Carolina (-4.5)
Last time the Cardinals flew East for some hot pigskin action, they were beaten by the Redskins and annihilated by the Jets in successive weeks. Western teams in the Eastern time zone this season are 0-fer. Carolina just took the Saints' lunch money. It'll take more than Anquan Boldin's Steve Austin impersonation to carry the Cards over the Panthers in Charlotte. Gimme some Carolina, and load it up with plenty of sauce.

Atlanta (+9) at Philadelphia
G:TB is drunk on Matty Ice and feels that this 4-2 Falcons squad is not getting its due against the 3-3 Eagles. Much has been said about the strength of the NFC East, but that is a classic example of pundits trying to craft a story too early in the season. Philadelphia has been up and down all year, but remain overhyped because of their one quality win against the Steelers. Atlanta has a couple decent wins this year, on the road against Green Bay and home against Chicago.

Both teams are coming off bye weeks heading into this game. Falcons fans will enjoy the efforts of a rested John "Hamstrings of Porcelain" Abraham. The Eagles will have a somewhat healed Bryant Westbrook ready to go, but he will likely still be less than 100%. Another key item - Eagles fans may be less cruel than normal if their Phillies hold a lead going into Sunday. That means less battery dodging will be needed by Michael Turner and Rowdy Roddy White.

We think this game is much closer than the spread indicates. The Falcons may not win, but they should keep it close. Take the Falcons

Tampa Bay @ Dallas (-2)
I'm not quite sure why I keep picking Bucs games. I mean, I don't have very good luck with them and I've already admitted that my fandom precludes me from seeing things as clearly as I would if I was picking, say, the Carolina-Arizona game. But, with that said, I've been busy today with work, a fantasy draft and discussing fashion with Geoff and TJ in a chat room this afternoon, so I might as well stick to what I know if I want to get this thing finished in time for TJ.

It's been well documented that Dallas is a hot mess. When you're starting a QB who's 40+ and thats not even among your 3 biggest problems, well, you're in a heap of shit. Seriously, want to know how old Brad Johnson is? He was the starting QB for the home team in the first ever college football game I ever attended. I turned 31 two weeks ago, if that gives you any idea how long ago that was. Now listen, I love Brad Johnson...he won the Bucs a Super Bowl, but I have a hard time believing that he's going to carry the Cowboys to victory in this one all by his lonesome. That said, I also have a hard time seeing the Bucs putting up a ton of points against a Dallas front seven that should constantly pressure Jeff Garcia. Additionally, Garcia's noodle arm and the lack of playmakers on the outside for Tampa make it highly unlikely that the Bucs will be able to burn the inexperienced Dallas secondary enough times to make the Cowboys defense stop what promises to be a constant barrage of exotic blitzes (Are exotic blitzes from Asia, or some small Cental American country? What makes them so exotic?). Honestly, this game is probably going to suck. Even if you're a Tampa fan (Greg) you might want to have another game as your primary viewing option come Sunday. I dont want to do this, but I'll take the Cowboys.

35 comments:

rob said...

what the hell were you doing commenting somewhere other than gtb? that kind of market fragmentation is killing our bottom line.

Zoltan said...

While searching PubMed for work I stumbled across an article on beer goggles. Apparently men develop beer goggles even when they haven't had enough beer to truly be goggling. At least I think that's what this means.

AIMS: The present study tested whether suboptimal priming (which may be defined as 'under viewing conditions rendering conscious identification highly improbable') with alcohol-related stimuli would activate existing expectancies about alcohol's effects on sexual desire. It was predicted that alcohol cues, relative to non-alcohol cues, would activate expectancies of alcohol's aphrodisiac properties. We hypothesized that for men, stronger expectancies in this regard would predict an increased tendency to judge women as sexually attractive following the alcohol primes. DESIGN: Two experimental studies manipulated cue (alcohol versus control) and rating dimension (attractiveness versus intelligence). Self-reported alcohol expectancies of sexual desire were assessed approximately 1 month prior to the study. Study 2 assessed additional expectancy content domains. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Study 1 comprised 82 undergraduate males and study 2 78 undergraduate males. Studies were conducted at the University of Missouri-Columbia, Columbia, Missouri, USA. INTERVENTIONS: In both experiments, male participants were suboptimally primed with either alcohol-related or control words. Following this priming, they were presented with a series of photographs of young women and asked to either rate their attractiveness or their intelligence. FINDINGS AND CONCLUSIONS: In both studies, a three-way interaction between cue, rating dimension and alcohol expectancies was found. Within the attractiveness rating condition a two-way interaction was found, indicating that in this condition, stronger expectancies that alcohol increases sexual desire predicted higher attractiveness ratings after suboptimal exposure to alcohol primes. No effects emerged in the intelligence rating condition. Discussion centers on implications for sexual risk-taking as well as a range of other non-consumptive behaviors.

Rhymenocerous said...

So the drunkest guy still on the world wide web tomorrow night will make the 5th NFL pick? I would classify that idea as strong, to very strong.

Mark said...

Rob...we were participating in an NBA Fantasy draft and it was so fun (or we were so bored)that Geoff, Jerry, TJ and myself stuck around and extra 15 minutes to talk about all kinds of neat things. Good times, and you missed it.

Mark said...

This is why I'll never win any Father of the Year (or live-in boyfriend of the year) awards:

My girlfriend and her daughter are going to see High School Musical 3 tonight. I'm going to the grand opening of my friends clothing store (which is located in a nice part of town littered with bars) which features an open bar. By the way, I don't feel remotely bad about this.

rob said...

i will be escorting 8 7 year-old girls to a screening of high school musical 3 on sunday afternoon, fresh off a day full of carousing in the bacchanal that is williamsburg, va with whitney, teejay, and others of considerable ill repute. the dichotomy is painful to consider, as is the hangover that's sure to be in my near future.

Mark said...

Texas Tech just scored on their second play from scrimmage in Lawrence. This should be fun.

And, I may not be taking an entire girl scout troop to the movies tomorrow (See, I enjoy this thing called the NFL...Rob) but I will be taking some young ladies to the local fair this evening instead of watching college football. Somebody get to work on my plaque...

Rhymenocerous said...

I have my own entry tonight in the "the missus has my balls in her purse" contest. I'm going to my wife's high school anniversary, and I'm apparently the only "significant other" going with the folks my wife still keeps in touch with. I get to leave at 6:30 for the event, meaning I'll miss the end of every 3:30 game and all of the 8 PM starts. I will know about 6 folks in a crowd of 150, and I am the designated driver. Yeesh...

At least we get Texas Tech in an early game...

Zoltan said...

If they have a dance floor and you want to leave early, just repeat your pledge auction routine. I guarantee you'll be able to leave right after that. You might even make it home in time to see the 8:00 kickoff if you get an early start to your dancing.

I'm full of good advice like this, so much so that I'm thinking of writing a book titled "Zoltan's Tips for Managing a Happy Marriage."

TJ said...

Happy Homecoming Donkeys.

TJ said...

Whoa...what the hell is going on in this OU/KSU game?

Mark said...

So...this Jeff Demps kid...pretty fast, huh?

Mark said...

Also, I don't want to jump to any conclusions but it looks like this Jarrett Lee kid might have a little Chris Rix in him. And, to be clear thats not a compliment.

Mark said...

Wow...this matchup of the Big Ten's top two teams is...um...something worth having on in the background while I drink?

TJ said...

For the love of Christ someone pick the fifth game...and it aint gonna be me or rob.

Mark said...

I'll make a pick in the morning.

TJ said...

Um, that's the first game rob picked...

Mark said...

I dont know what you are talking about TJ. I haven't made a pick yet...but I will...Giants beat the Steelers on the road.

TJ said...

Oh you are a crafty one...

Mark said...

Trick-er-ation...

TJ said...

I eagerly await rob's review of High School Musical 3.

Mark said...

I can have my gf give you her review while you wait on Rob.

TJ said...

Hey, here's an idea: show more commercials for the Stiffler/Paul Rudd movie "Role Models". Please. I haven't seen enough yet.

Mark said...

The Bucs just got screwed out of a halftime lead by the refs courtesy of 4 penalties (including 2 illegal contact and one personal foul penalty) in the half's last 45 seconds.

I hate the fucking Cowboys and I hate their fans, who managed to boo Brad Johnson every time he threw an incomplete pass in the second quarter.

TJ said...

So nice of the Jets to keep the criminally incompetent Chiefs in the game.

TJ said...

Coach Billick, his name is Santana Moss, not Santonio Moss. Stop calling him Santonio.

Zoltan said...

Saaaaaved by zeeeerooooo!

Mark said...

Saved by zero! Saved by zero!

Rhymenocerous said...

The mood at the Meadowlands as the crowd shuffled out was similar to the feeling you'd have if you went for a colonoscopy and found out everything was okay. The net result was positive, but what you had to endure for 3 hours was anything but pleasant.

At least the Bills shat the bed and set up the least exciting November matchup for a division lead that the NFL has seen in a long time.

Rhymenocerous said...

Watching Eli convert to Toomer on 4th and 6 from the Steelers 35, I realize how much I wish Tom Coughlin was the decision maker for my favorite team. Say what you want about his tactics, but he believes in his squad.

Mangini should learn that lesson. After he finds his neck.

Mark said...

That was quite gutsy.

Whitney said...

Don Denkinger has his place in history for a single call, but the umpiring crew of the 2008 World Series appears to be inking itself into the record books as the worst of all time.

TJ said...

It appears that we went 2-3 again this week.

Rhymenocerous said...

I can partially blame my bad pick on the horrendous botched punt call. The officials raped the Falcons.

Joe Blanton is fat.

TJ said...

Iwamura playing like a Japanese Dan Uggla in the field tonight.