Uncertainty at One Bills Drive

The Buffalo Bills fired their head coach and fellow Tribesman Sean McDermott on Monday.  I don't love this move for several reasons.

First, McDermott is a good head coach.  But much like the practice of law, being an NFL head coach is all about "what have you done for me lately."  Here's how McDermott compares to the best coaches over the last four years and their career Super Bowl records with the best in yellow:

McDermott is no Andy Reid or Nick Sirianni, but he compares favorably with everyone else over the last four years.  He made the playoffs with Tyrod Taylor and Nathan Peterman as his starting QBs for god's sake!  It isn't clear that anyone could do much better.  

Second, as with anything in life, a change can make things better or worse.  It was pretty ugly before McDermott arrived at One Bills Drive going back 30 years:

That's 17 consecutive years without making the playoffs.  From an AFC East perspective they finished in last place 8 times, in the bottom two 16 times, and went 24 years without winning the division.  That was not fun.  You know what was more fun?  Ninety-eight wins, eight playoff appearances and five division titles over nine years.  Will they do as well with Brian Daboll or Mike McCarthy or Klint Kubiak or Joe Brady?  For every Marv Levy or Sean McDermott there's a Mike Mularkey or a Chan Gailey.

Third, a bunch of things outside of McDermott's control cost them this game.  

zdaughter really got into football this season and plays a lot of Madden (which involves drubbing me mercilessly and talking smack about it).  At the end of the first half with 22 seconds left she said "They should run four verticals" and I said "No, they will take a knee."  They did not take a knee, which is on McDermott, but what happened after the snap is not on McDermott.

Allen should've thrown this away, or slid, or really done anything other than carry the ball like a loaf of bread.  McDermott didn't cause that fumble, or fail to recover it, or kick the FG for Denver.

I know that zdaughter is a real Bills fan because she woke up on Sunday still pissed off about the Brandon Cooks play.

Even this guy in a Celtics shirt says the Bills got ripped off and he brings the receipts with the same fact pattern but a different outcome in the Rams/Bears game.

Real Bills fans know that it isn't fair to besmirch someone based on another person's failures.

Fourth, there's no clear choice to replace McDermott.  

The last time I did one of these posts I talked about coaches with rings, or CWR.  No coach ever won a Super Bowl with two different teams despite the fact that there have been LIX (that's 59 for you math majors) opportunities to do so.  As a result I don't want a CWR so that rules out John Harbaugh (who isn't available), Mike Tomlin (who wants to take the year off and would require sending draft picks to the Steelers), and Mike McCarthy (who doesn't get me excited and probably wants to go home to Pittsburgh anyway).

The Pegulas' goal appears to be getting to the Super Bowl ASAP.  Only seven coaches reached the Super Bowl in their first year with a team:

• Don McCafferty with the 1970 Colts.  They won.  McCafferty was the Colts' offensive backfield coach in 1969.
• Red Miller with the 1977 Broncos.  They lost.  Miller was the Patriots' OL coach in 1976 (that's a crazy career upgrade by the way).
• George Seifert with the 1989 49ers.  They won (for the second year in a row) with a stacked roster including six Pro Bowlers, three first team All Pros, and the league MVP (and at least five future Hall of Famers).  Seifert was the Niners' DC in 1988.
• Bill Callahan with the 2002 Raiders.  This team was stacked with Rich Gannon (league MVP), Jerry Rice and Tim Brown, two first team All Pros on the offensive line, Rod Woodson, Charles Woodson, Bill Romanowski, and Sam Adams (the DT not the brewer).  Callahan was the Raiders' OC in 2001 and they lost to ...
• John Gruden with the 2002 Bucs.  He was the Raiders' HC in 2001.  This defense was one of the best ever with Warren Sapp, Simeon Rice, Ronde Barber, John Lynch, Derrick Brooks, and Booger McFarland.  Sapp, Barber, Lynch and Brooks are HOFers.
• Jim Caldwell with the 2009 Colts.  They lost.  Like Seifert, he was on the team's staff the prior year (assistant HC/QB coach) and he took over a stacked roster that won it all a few years previously including seven Pro Bowlers, three first team All Pros, and the league MVP (and at least two future Hall of Famers).
• Gary Kubiak with the 2015 Broncos.  They won thanks to arguably the league's best defense featuring five Pro Bowlers and one first team All Pro.  Peyton Manning's withered husk started 9 games going 7-2, completing 59.8% of his passes for 9 TD and 17 INT.  Brock Ostweiler chipped in 5 wins, 10 TD and 6 INT along the way.  Kubiak was Baltimore's OC in 2014 and he had a history with Denver as their backup QB in the 1980s.

So what's the best comp for this Bills team?  

The roster is not stacked--they do have three Pro Bowlers (Allen, James Cook, Dion Dawkins) but they have no speed at receiver, the defensive line has no one fearsome (despite spending lots of draft capital there), the defensive backs are shaky (despite spending lots of draft capital there) and always injured, two of their starting OL are free agents, and they will be more than $7.6m over the cap (due in not insignificant part to Allen's $56m cap hit, up from $36m this year).

The coaching staff has talent.  Bobby Babich put together the top pass defense (despite all the injuries) but the run defense was like a sieve.  Joe Brady would maintain Tribal continuity and he assembled a top five offense three years in a row.  But neither are as seasoned as Seifert or Callahan.

The closest match I can see is the 2002 Bucs--they were very good on one side of the ball--so I'm looking for a good head coach (or coordinator with head coaching experience) who didn't break through yet.   Looking closer at history, Gruden and Kubiak were offensive coaches who won Super Bowls as head coaches with dominant defenses so maybe the Bills need to hire someone who came up as a DC like Leslie Frazier (former Bills DC), Vic Fangio, or Steve Spagnuolo, but they're old as hell, so Vance Joseph, Robert Saleh, or Brian Flores.  For shits and giggles I'll give Anthony Campanile a shoutout because Fair Lawn and Don Bosco.

Ultimately though, they will probably hire Brian Daboll because Josh Allen loves him and that's as good a reason as any.  I don't love that hire (I watched him coach a lot of bad Giants losses) but I'll hope for the best.

zBouillabaise Returns

I have a few incomplete thoughts which I will stew together as zbouillabaise.

1. Fuck cancer.

My childhood BFF, whom several of you have met (including Danimal!), called me this week to share the good news that his mother appears to have beaten Stage 4 lung cancer through a combination of immunotherapy, chemotherapy, and surgery to remove 40% of her left lung.  Apparently she was cranky and bossing people around about an hour after she woke up from the procedure, which is to say she was fully back to normal.  She is an exceedingly tough person so her fortitude isn't a tremendous surprise, but still, fuck cancer.

2. Reading The Great Gatsby resulted in homework.

I recently read a post about a group of English professors who theorized that Jay Gatsby is Black.  I read The Great Gatsby in high school and saw Gatz about 14 years ago but I never heard this theory before, so I reread the book and I can see what they're getting at.  Alternatively, Gatsby is Jewish.  Or maybe both.  Also, I'm not convinced that Meyer Wolfsheim is really Jewish.  Anyway, I forgot that the book is only 150 pages long and that it's a damn good story.  And it's timely despite being 100 years old--the wealthy elite shit on the working man and blame his misfortune on the "others," and the working man gets violent at the others' expense.

I enjoyed the book (and the alternate theory of Gatsby's secret) so much that I contacted my high school English teacher (she's related to a friend) and we had a two and a half hour Z**m call about Gatsby, literature, and life in general.  She was my favorite teacher ever and it was great to reconnect.  She even gave me some reading assignments for our next call this afternoon.  So track down your favorite teacher and spend some quality time with them.

3. I am more optimistic about the Bills than ever before.

Or at least in a long time.  Going into the draft I told several Gheorghies that all I wanted to see them draft were cornerbacks and edge rushers.  My rationale is that it doesn't matter who the skill position players are on offense so long as they have Allen under center, and if you want to beat Mahomes you need to be able to get to him while only rushing four, and you need to cover everyone long enough for that four-man rush to get to him.  Beane largely listened to me, and they signed whatever is left of Joey Bosa (which I hope is significantly more than whatever was left of Von Miller over the past three seasons), so I am extremely optimistic going into the 2025 season.  Which means Allen gets hurt on the first snap.

4. Hell is other people.

I've said this here before.  This time it's less personal.  I've been plowing through Severance and pretty early on it reminded me of No Exit.  Then there's a scene in season 2 where a bizarre love triangle literally discusses who among them is going to hell.  Hopefully things will become clearer when I finish the season.  It's a great show, and you'll enjoy it even if you don't like existentialist references.  Check it out.

Divisional Round Final Day Filler

Our man Zed has something teed up for tomorrow, but it's been a few days, and I know y'all are dying to have a place to talk about this afternoon's gridiron action, so I'm here for you. 

In a way, this one's tied to Z, as well. 

I don't know why, but I seem to get a lot of things in my Twitter feed about the Buffalo Bills. In particular, about what terrific dudes Stefon Diggs and Josh Allen seem to be. There's a great piece here on the relationships the two players have with youngsters. 

Here's Diggs with five year-old Aydin Laborde. The pair's relationship started in preseason, shortly after Aydin's father had passed away. Diggs has made it a point to stay a part of Aydin's life.

Remember @StefonDiggs’ buddy Aydin?

Stef met up with him tonight for a special pregame moment. ❤️💙 #BillsMafia pic.twitter.com/FpC7vp6XDz

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2022

Allen has a similar relationship with Abbie McNett, who he met this summer as she was battling cancer. They got together last week, too.

.@JoshAllenQB met cancer warrior Abbie over the summer.

Abbie recently found out her tumor is gone, so Josh had her on-field pregame to celebrate.

We love every bit of this moment. ❤️💙 pic.twitter.com/pV7cYf2K5w

— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 18, 2022

That's the good stuff. 

My Hot Takes on the Bills and the Bills/Chiefs Game

1. Brian Daboll probably isn't a genius and he probably won't save whatever franchise he goes to.  This offense looks good because Josh Allen is phenomenal.
2. Leslie Frazier probably isn't a genius either.  The Bills played a bunch of offensively challenged teams this year (Jest twice, Fish twice, Jags, Texans, WFT, Panthers, Falcons) and the defense starts six first-round picks.  This helped him look good.  His defenses in Tampa were not good and he had a 39.8% win percentage as a head coach in Minnesota.  And he just gave up 45 yards and 3 points in 10 seconds to go to OT.
3. I miss Tre'Davious White.  No one can stop Tyreek Hill but White would've done better than Dane Jackson.
4. Why was Dane Jackson, the 239th pick in the 2020 draft, on Tyreek Hill?
5. Allen is a bad man.  When was the last time you saw a QB knock a defensive player out of the game?  But I don't think this is a good way to build a lengthy career.
6.  If they're going to continue to run designed rushing plays for Allen they should get a fullback.
7. At a minimum, they need to get a big thumping running back who can get 3 tough yards so that Allen doesn't always have to.  Guys like Leonard Fournette don't grow on trees but he was available for peanuts two years ago.  Guys like Alexander Mattison, D'Onta Foreman, Devontae Booker, Mark Ingram, Rex Burkhead and Carlos Hyde are always available.
8. The overtime rules are what they are.  Buffalo couldn't stop KC when they needed to.  If the Bills were playing the Colts or the Ravens it would've been different.  That said, the outcome feels somewhat inequitable, the fans want something else so the league should respond.  I have ideas.
• Make OT a 10 or 15 minute period.  Team with the most points wins.  If they're tied play another 10 or 15 minute period.
• Both teams get the ball once.  If they both score TD in their first possessions, the next team to score any points wins.
• Use the college OT system.
• Have a FG kick-off, moving back 5 yards at a time until someone misses.
• The head coaches wrestle Greco-Roman style at midfield.  First guy to pin the other advances.
• Each team designates one player to box at midfield.  First guy to knock out the other advances.
• Erect a cage at midfield and the punters have an MMA fight.  Winner advances.
• Each team designates one player to do the NY Times Mini.  Guy with the fastest time advances.
• A player is randomly chosen from each team.  Both have 15 minutes to complete as many questions as they can from the Analytical Reasoning section of an LSAT (which is also randomly selected from a book of ten practice tests).  Guy with the best score advances.  If they tie, the punters have a knife fight at midfield, first guy to draw blood advances.
9. Romo was probably right that Buffalo should've kicked off short of the endzone to run off some clock with 0:13 left.  I suspect, however, that McDermott did not want to be the second Bills coach to lose a playoff game on a kick return with no time left.
10. Only six punts, very few penalties, no gross injuries, receivers running free all over the place, QBs looking like superheroes, 5-5 combined on fourth down, lots and lots of points, defensive futility.  This is what the league wants.  

NFL Playoffs Open Thread

The NFL playoffs start today!  My beloved Bills kick off at 1:05 pm against the Colts.  Both zkids will be out of the house until 2:45 so I will be able to enjoy most of the game without being heckled for food or Robux.

I'm a little nervous.  Josh Allen played amazing football this year, but the last time he played in a playoff game he took at least 18 months off my life with this play:

via Gfycat

And I'm not being hyperbolic.  Apparently I made all sorts of loud crazy/angry noises, prompting zwoman to run into the room.  She found me on my knees, pulling my hair, with my face tomato red like our friend ED209.  I blacked out for a few seconds of that tantrum.  My cardiologist wasn't happy.

Hopefully Allen won't do stupid stuff like that today.

The other angst-inducing aspect of this game is the Frank Reich factor.  When I raised this issue to a few friends from high school, my boy Lumpy Kris, aka Willie Lump Lump, posited "Frank Reich should walk onto the field with his cock out!!! I'm Frank Reich, I own this place!"

The Colts are kinda vanilla, they don't do anything particularly well on offense but they average 28.2 points per game, good for ninth best in the league.  Their defense allows the tenth fewest points per game, so they're well balanced.  This might not be an easy game.  Hopefully Reich keeps his cock in his pants.

Watch along with me and mock me in the comments.

The Twelve Days of Gheorghemas: Day Ten

On the tenth day of Gheorghemas, Big Gheorghe gave to me

Ten (plus) Buffalo wins
Nine Joyous Moments
Eight Hot (or Lukewarm) Takes

Seven Books For Reading

Six Footie Jerseys

Five musicians from San Antonio known as the Sir Douglas Quintet

A four-part Japanese life strategy (as told by our man in the OBX)

Three 80's Baseball Sports Looks

Too Many Entries,

and a Cameo That Will Go Down in History

It's a great time to be a Buffalo Bills fan, the best time in the past 21 years.  They won 11 games so far this year, and this is the first stretch of back-to-back 10-win seasons since 1998-1999.  It is also their first back-to-back playoff appearances since 1998-1999.  Almost as emotionally important, they haven't beaten the Patriots twice in one season since 1999, and it looks like they have a good shot at doing so on December 28.  

via GIPHY

Oh, they also won the AFC East for the first time since 1995.

via GIPHY

The offense has scored the 5th most points, accumulated the 6th most yards, and picked up the 6th most yards per play.  Josh Allen has the 4th most passing yards, the 6th most passing TD, the 7th best passer rating, and he's finally starting to play more like John Elway and less like John Elway with a lobotomy.  Stefon Diggs leads the league in receptions and has the 3rd most receiving yards.  Based on these numbers, it's no surprise that they have the 4nd best passing offense according to pro-football-reference.com's "expected points contributed" metric.  

via GIPHY

What is surprising is Josh Allen's progress over the last three seasons.  His passing yardage went from 2000 to 3000 to 4000 yards, his passing TD went from 10 to 20 to 30, and his completion percentage went from 53% to 58% to 69%.  The fact that he has the 6th best completion percentage blows my mind.  Also mind-blowing: his 26 career wins are the most of any Buffalo QB since Jim Kelly.

via GIPHY

The defense is middle of the road statistically for the season, but they've tightened up over the last 4-5 games.  Tre'Davious White is a badass (although I'd still rather have Patrick Mahomes with the 10th pick in the 2017 draft), and Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde are as good a safety tandem as any.  AJ Klein and Tremaine Edmunds are affirmatively good and Edmunds wears #49 (I love the new rules allowing LBs to wear numbers in the 40s).  They're a fun group to watch.

via GIPHY

The Bills are also fans of our Bite Me Randy Newman recurring bit, with a not insignificant number of their significant players being relatively short.  There's Devin Singletary (5'7"); Cole Beasley (5'8" and zson is getting his jersey for Gheorghemas, luckily no Gs in his name); Isaiah McKenzie (also 5'8"); Zack Moss (like me an ideal 69" tall); and Tre'Davious White, Taron Johnson, John Brown, and Andre Roberts (all 5'11").

via GIPHY

I'm really happy about the team's direction.  If your team fails to make the playoffs, root along with me for the Bills.  They might pull off a Gheorghemas miracle, they're a pretty Gheorghe crew.

via GIPHY

Yet Another Bills-Browns Preview

Yeah, I’m doing one of these again. The Bills play the Browns this weekend. This game will be their ninth matchup in the past thirteen years, in large part because they both perennially finish fourth in their respective divisions. Buffalo won four of the last five games. This one is particularly huge.

I knew the Bills would be 6-2 at this point. I think I said so in a comment but I’m too lazy to look. Their six wins came against five cans of corn (NYJ, NYG, CIN, MIA, WAS) and a mediocre Titans squad. I was sure they would win at least five of those games.

They have three more pushovers on the schedule: DEN, NYJ, and MIA. They also have a tough stretch in the middle of those three games: @DAL, BAL, @PIT, @NE. That’s four guaranteed losses. I know that Pittsburgh is not great this year but the Bills are 2-10 against the Steelers over the past 26.69 years with the last win coming in 1999, and they haven’t won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since 1975 when OJ Simpson ran for 227 yards.

via GIPHY

All of this means, as I expected, that the Bills need to beat the Browns this week to have a shot at 10-6 and a playoff berth.

Cleveland is favored by 2.5 to 3 points as I write this, so the bookies view Cleveland and Buffalo as a pretty even match despite their respective 2-6 and 6-2 records.

Everyone expected Cleveland to be good this year. They play a very soft schedule from here out, with only one game against a good team (Baltimore) after this week, including home against the Dolphins and two against the Bengals. The way my life works, the Browns will beat the Bills and build momentum to finish 10-6 or 9-7. Their win over the Bills will be the tiebreaker that gives Cleveland the 6 seed, keeping Buffalo out of the post-season.

via GIPHY

Final score: Bills 17 Browns 31

zBouillabaise Returns

I have a few random items floating around in my head that seem post-worthy but aren't substantial enough to warrant my typical overly-long treatment, so I'm doing another zbouillabaise post.

1. "Station Wagon" by Hector's Pets has been stuck in my head since I heard it on WFMU this weekend. I bought their lone album, "Pet-O-Feelia"--they're essentially a Ramones tribute band with a great fondness for doo-wop. The result is a lot of lo-fi garage rock with heavy guitar riffs and pulsating background vocals. It's fun.



2. Speaking of station wagons, there's some weird arbitrage going on at various Jaguar dealers. The XF Sportbrake is a 380 horsepower rocket sled masquerading as a station wagon. The MSRP starts at $71,000 and can balloon over $80,000 depending on how you option it up. There are a number of XF Sportbrakes available for at or under $60,000, including one for $53,000 in Houston and one for $58,000 in White Plains. I contacted the White Plains dealer about this one and two other Sportbrakes they had back in July. They still have two of the three on the lot. I'm not saying you should buy a Jaguar, but if you're like me and you like longroofs (looking at you Squeaky) and you're in the market for a new one, you can get a supercharged V6 Jaguar for the price of a turbocharged I4 Volvo V90. If not less--there is only one Caesium Blue XF Sportbrake for sale new in America right now (it's in Atlanta) and when I emailed the dealer for a price quote they responded within 4 minutes, then followed up 15 minutes later to remind me that the keys are out waiting for me to take a test drive. Simply put, no one wants these cars so you can find yourself some extremely good values and you might be able to gouge the dealers down even further. What this really means is that in two years the market for CPO Sportbrakes will be soft as hell. And who wouldn't want to get a good deal on this?

If only they made them in British Racing Green ...

3. Unrelated to station wagons, and perhaps the polar opposite of Hector's Pets, I've also been listing to Jungle's new album "For Ever." Unlike Hector's Pets' DIY sound, "For Ever" appears to have been Zaratsu polished to impossible smoothness. If I were a cynic I would say that the whole album is prefabricated for commercials advertising luxury goods and the closing credits of prestige TV. But I'm not so instead I'll say it sounds like a cross between electronica and Yacht Rock with some Lovage thrown in for good measure.



Maybe some Gnarls Barkley too.



4. You know those "Little Trees" air fresheners that you hang from the rear view mirror so your car don't smell? The company that makes those trees sued Bob Ross's estate for trademark infringement because they sell "Happy Trees" and "Happy Little Trees" air fresheners that allegedly look confusingly similar to the "Little Trees" air fresheners. I love Bob Ross as much as the next guy (well maybe not as much as Teedge) and I want to take his side but this is pretty egregious.

5. My beloved Buffalo Bills are on pace to score 184 points and to give up 624 points. That's a -440 point differential. Only seven teams have scored less than 184 points in 16 games. Only two teams have ever allowed more than 500 points (the 2008 Lions with 517 and the 1981 Colts with 533). So the Bills might be historically bad on both sides of the ball, and they're currently on pace to be the worst defense ever by 91 points. Since the merger, no team has had a point differential worse than -287 (the 1976 Buccaneers). A -440 point differential would be unfathomably bad. But we might have to fathom it--here's the rest of Buffalo's schedule: @MIN, @GB, TEN, @HOU, @IND, NE, CHI, @NYJ, BYE, JAX, @MIA, NYJ, DET, @NE, MIA. Not a lot of gimmes on that slate.

6. What part of the Constitutiom says that the President can’t appoint a Supreme Court Justice during an election year, but he or she can make such an appointment while being an unindicted co-conspirator for a federal crime?

Jags vs Bills - Part 3

For all of the reasons Z presents as to why the Bills can win, one might guess there may be as many that would allow someone, in this case me, to support the argument that the Jags should not only win, but win by 9-9.5 points as prescribed by the bookmakers. One might think.

Before heading down that road, it very much surprised me when I saw Jax favored by as many points points when I first saw the line on Tuesday. I read today (Thur) that there was a line as low as 6.5 when it opened up, but most were at 7.5. Regardless, that's a pretty big variance between opening and today's, not uncommon but not normal either. Before checking a spread, like most, I guess beforehand what the number is going to be. Three to 3.5 points was my hunch fwtftw. Both teams are...meh. Decent. One at 10-6 in a weak division and with a weak schedule as has been pointed out, the other 9-7 with nothing too much to shout about either. Neither squad has any significant playoff experience within their roster or coaching staff. We all know of the parity that exists within the league. It is a common occurrence for a cellar dweller to beat a perennial powerhouse. Because of the parity, my NFL wagers are kept to a minimum. Betting is difficult to begin with but in the NFL, it's impossibly unpredictable. You see a spread like this one and think it's nuts. Anything more than 4 would have raised my eyebrow. But NINE? Most would think it's a no-brainer to bet on the Bills.Then you bet on the Bills thinking it's a lay-up and the Jags end up winning by 24. That's what kind of line this is - the "no-brainer boned in the ass line". Or is it?

Speaking of roads, this is a view from the backseat of my Bahamian taxi en route to the airport today...Three Stooges! On Video!

Let's take a look at common opponents - Cinci - Indy - NYJ

Cin 7 at Jax 23
BB 16 at Cin 20
Sure, the home game is worth about 3 points so we'll grant them that. We can agree that Cinci is no bueno though, no? The washed up QB that is Andy Dalton was held to 10 of 18 and 136 in North Florida. Zero Touchdowns. Of course, AJ Green was escorted off the field for committing an assault and battery against Jalen Ramsey but damn. Do they run the option there in Cinci?
(If you were curious, Dalton threw 2 pics, 1 TD and 22-38 for 338 yards in their win against the Bills)

Jax 27 at Indy 0   
Indy 7 at BB 13
Indy 10 at Jax 30
Advantage Jagoffville with an average margin of victory 3+ TD's versus 2 Field Goals.

Jax 20 at  NYJ 23
NYJ 12 at BB 21
BB 21 at NYJ 34
We'll call it a push.

If we take the Jags lesser productive of their two against Indy; and the Bills lesser of theirs against the NYJ, the cumulative scores are Jax 73 - Jax Opponents 40; and Buffalo 50 - Buffalo Opponents 61

Taking the better of the two: Jax 70 - Jax Opponents 30; and Buffalo Opponents 50 - Buffalo 39
Advantage - Jacksonville

Other quick stats provided by our friends at Reference.com
Rankings
Total offense Buff - 29th; 31st in Passing Yards; 27th in Passing TD's; 6th in Rushing Yards; 15th in Rushing TD

Total Defense Jax - 5th; 2nd in Total Yards allowed; 1st in Passing Yards allowed; 21st in Rushing Yards allowed; 6th in Rushing TD's allowed.

But all of these numbers mean diddly. Reason being, it's the Playoffs, game 1. The Bills just won a game to get into the tournament, a game they absolutely had to win to do so and on the road. They won the week prior to that, and 3 of the last 4. They've got the mojo and an uber-efficient QB that makes nary a miscue.

We've got a little bit of the opposite, losing the last 2 and....Bortles. He's not the worst quarterback in the league, but he can be sometimes. Except when it comes to being a stickman. Word is out in Jax - he likes to surf. The bars, that is! One of Blake's friends below...

This game is all about him & McCoy. Is Bortles playing to win or not to lose? He's got an immense amount of pressure on him. He holds our city on his shoulders. Does he feel it? And will McCoy's ankle be strong enough to allow him to take advantage of our weakness that is our running defense? I look forward to seeing the crowd and the energy they bring - it will be a far different environment than the norm and should negate much if not all of that negative mojo the Jags are carrying. Throw in the teal beer & food....watch out!

Assuming a healthy Shady and a turnover ratio that is kept to -1 or better for the Jags (that's right, I'm considering a net -1 for us to be just fine), I like the Jags winning but the Bills covering. Shady rendered useless and that same -1 turnover margin, vaJJ by 9 and then some. Bortles playing like he has in his more recent games will make this a very close contest decided on the last possession.

Jacksonville 16
Buffalo 13

So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 2

While the rest of you are hunkering down for the snowstorm I've been mining the depths of pro-football-reference.com to prove that Jacksonville's defense is overrated. Here's a list of the QBs they played:

- Tom Savage with Deshaun Watson in relief in week 1
- Marcus Mariota (twice)
- Joe Flacco and Ryan Mallett
- Josh McCown
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Jared Goff
- Jacoby Brissett (twice)
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- DeShone Kizer
- Blaine Gabbert
- Russell Wilson
- TJ Yates
- Jimmy Garoppolo

Aside from Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson (all three made the Pro Bowl) this is not a particularly distinguished list. At least six of those guys are bad, McCown is a journeyman/replacement level player, and the jury is still out on Mariota, Watson, Goff, and Garoppolo (although the last three admittedly look pretty good). Dalton and Flacco are probably washed up and past their primes.

In the running game they were ranked 21st in yardage and 26th in yards per carry. Not too impressive.

via GIPHY

They absolutely smothered the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Texans, holding them all under 200 yards of total offense. But those teams were at or towards the bottom of the league in terms of yardage. Yes, they picked off Big Ben five times and made him contemplate retirement in his post-game press conference, but he still threw for over 300 yards.

By contrast, the Bills faced Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers--that's four games against Pro Bowlers. They also played Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, the last two league MVPs, and Alex Smith who led the league in QB rating. That's seven games against good QBs and partially explains their 20th ranking in passing yardage. Impressively, they allowed the second-fewest TD and had the sixth-most INT. They are not intimidated by Blake Bortles.

via GIPHY

Ultimately I think the Jaguars defense makes its money via takeaways--they had 33 this year, second most in the NFL. Their 21 INTs were also second in the league, although it's hard to say how impressive this is given the level of QBs they played. Notably, Buffalo turned the ball over 16 times on offense, the sixth fewest in the league. Tyrod Taylor threw only 4 INT and led the league in INT % at 0.95%. So each team's strengths play into the other's. Van der Waals forces and all that.

I can easily see Bortles throwing three picks while the Bills play a clean game, with Buffalo winning 17-13. I can also see Bortles attempting 15 passes with Leonard Fournette getting 35 carries for 150 yards and the Bills going three-and-out every possession, with Jacksonville winning 13-7. Either way I say take the under (right now it's at 39.5 to 40) and the points (Bills are getting 9).

But in my heart I'm taking the Bills. After all, you gotta have faith.

via GIPHY

And if you're really lucky I'll tell you why the intangibles cut in Buffalo's favor.

So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 1

I think the Bills can win in Jacksonville on Sunday and this post is the first of at least one posts explaining why. I think the Jaguars's offensive stats were over-inflated by a soft schedule, and I think Blake Bortles isn't very good. As a result the Jags could easily get knocked out of the playoffs early.

The Jags were 1-2 against playoff teams this year. Here's how Bortles did in those games:

Those are affirmatively bad stats. He averaged 0.33 TD, 1.67 INT, and 159 yards per game with a 52.4% completion percentage in three games against playoff teams.

The Jags were 4-3 against teams with winning records. Bortles still wasn't very good in those games:

He averaged 1.3 TD, 1.1 INT, and 215 yards with a 58.4% completion percentage in games against teams with winning records. That isn't an impressive QB stat line in 2017.

So why did the Jaguars score the fifth most points this season? Because they played five games against the three worst scoring defenses in the league. Bortles looked absolutely decent in those games:

He threw no picks and completed 66% of his passes, which is great, but he averaged only 1.6 TD and 249 yards in those games.

To put it another way, Bortles lost a passing duel to Blaine Gabbert.

Sure, Buffalo's defense is nothing to brag about and it gave up a league-high 22 TD (I see you Leonard Fournette). But Bortles is so bad that I think the Bills can stack the box against the run without too many concerns.

via GIPHY

If you're lucky I'll explain why Jacksonville's defense is overrated too.

A Bills/Browns Review, Alternately Titled "A Tale of Two Shitties"

Some might say we've been mercifully spared, while others might say mercilessly denied, another of my Bills/Browns previews because the Bills and Browns finished third and fourth in their divisions, respectively, in 2016 (as opposed to their usual last-place finishes that produce this herpetic matchup). As a result I wrote this Bills/Browns review, to review some of the awful decisions they've made.

My friend Mark is a Dolphins fan and he has a theory about the NFL draft: take a quarterback every year, and if you don't have a good one take the best one you can get in the first round, even if you have to trade up. In his view, amassing piles of draft picks like the Patriots do is great only if you have a good quarterback like the Patriots do. This opinion reflects the harsh reality that it's almost impossible to win a Super Bowl with even an average quarterback. Thus having great depth in the defensive backfield and tremendous special teams specialists does you little good unless you have a real stud under center.

Mark is further of the view that you know if a QB is a bust after two years. If so, move on. He's fine with rolling the dice on a high draft pick and moving on quickly if the player is a bust, so long as this risk is taken at the QB position. In his view, a complete bust is better than winding up with a guy like Ryan Tannehill because it's easy to move on from a bust. If you move on from Ryan Tannehill you could wind up with a total bust or even worse, Jay Cutler, so you're stuck with mediocrity for a number of years until the coach gets fired and a new regime comes in and cleans house.

The Browns highlight the flaws in Mark's theory. I'll explain. Here are the names of people who have thrown ten or more passes in a game for the Browns since 2012:

Cody Kessler
DeShone Kizer
Kevin Hogan
Robert Griffin
Josh McCown
Charlie Whitehurst
Austin Davis
Johnny Manziel
Brian Hoyer
Jason Campbell
Brandon Weeden
Thaddeus Lewis
Colt McCoy

Factory of sadness indeed. Here are the names of some QBs the Browns chose not to draft since 2012:

Deshaun Watson (they traded this pick to Houston, then took DeShone Kizer later)
Carson Wentz (they traded this pick to Philadelphia, then took Cody Kessler later)
Dak Prescott (they took Cody Kessler the round before)
Derek Carr (they took Johnny Manziel the round before)
Jimmy Garoppolo (again, they took Johnny Manziel the round before)
Russell Wilson (they took Brandon Weeden two rounds before)
Kirk Cousins (again, they took Bradon Weeden three rounds before)

To be fair, every team in the league passed on Prescott, Garoppolo, Wilson and Cousins ... and the Browns drafted Weeden, Manziel, Kessler and Kizer so they seem to be following Mark's theory. But the theory works best if the folks making the picks aren't completely asleep at the wheel. But even a blind squirrel can manage to bust a nut once every six drafts, right?

It is well established that I'm an idiot. However, when the Bills traded back from #10 in this year's draft I said "Did the Bills just do something that makes sense? Wow." and then "Although I would've been excited for them to get Deshaun Watson." He was tremendous in college and he's looked great so far this year. It didn't require piercing insight to recognize that Watson had yoodge upside--did you see the National Championship game?

Further, when the R**skins drafted Robert Griffin they also drafted Kirk Cousins. These picks worked out (compared to the situation in Cleveland at least). Would it have killed the Browns to take Weeden AND Cousins or Kessler AND Prescott? It's not like they're using their picks wisely and drafting well at other positions.

Seriously, the Browns suck at drafting all over the field. Here's the top 25 players the Browns drafted since 2012 ranked by career average value:

You know you're bad at drafting when the third-best player you've taken in the last six years is Trent Richardson. Who the hell is Mitchell Schwartz, other than the best Browns draftee of the past six years? I would've assumed he was a CPA, anesthesiologist, maybe a securities litigator. Turns out he's a Kansas City Chief! He went to KC last year and turned in his best career season to date in terms of AV. Typical Browns. Note that eight of these top 25 aren't in the the NFL anymore. That's not good.

All this is to say: the Browns realize that they don't have a QB, they realize that they need a QB, and they're actively drafting QB's, but they're either too dumb or too shook or too cheap or some combination thereof to draft a QB early in the first round. They need to talk to Mark. He hasn't said this, but I think his theory demonstrates the problem with advanced metrics that focus too much on "draft capital." Having all 32 picks in the seventh round might add up to a lot of "draft capital," but none of those players are likely to make your team better. At some point you have to take your balls out of your purse and spend a bunch of capital on a highly rated quaterback.

Buffalo's recent history highlights the potential merits of Mark's theory--you are never going to get a good QB unless you draft one (except for the Saints with Drew Brees, which must still piss off Charger fans). Here's a list of alleged humans that threw 10 or more passes for the Bills since 2012:

Tyrod Taylor
Cardale Jones
EJ Manuel
Kyle Orton
Jeff Tuel
Thaddeus Lewis (overlap!)
Ryan Fitzpatrick

Not exactly a beauty pageant. Unlike Cleveland, the Bills don't seem to feel any need to address this deficiency. Here's who they've drafted at QB since 2012:

Nathan Peterman
Cardale Jones
EJ Manuel

It's as if they're completely ignoring the position. Like the Browns they suck at drafting too:

Ten of their top 25 picks from the last six drafts are out of the league. Awful.

More remarkable, in my view, was their recent move to trade Marcell Dareus to Jacksonville for a sixth round pick. Much is made of the Bills' long-running failure to reach the postseason. What makes this particularly painful is that they haven't completely bottomed out (unlike the Browns) so they're typically good enough to get 6-7 wins and don't draft at the top of the board. Dareus, however, was the third pick of the 2011 draft and he played well for Buffalo. Getting only a sixth round pick for him is painful. You know what's really painful though? This:

Buffalo could've had any of these players on their team today other than Cam Newton or Von Miller. Instead they have a future sixth round pick. How's that for effective use of draft capital?! But I guess it isn't much more frustrating than this:

Buffalo could've stayed at 9, drafted Odell Beckham Jr. (or anyone else on this list except for Blake Bortles), and still had a first round pick in 2015. Instead they traded up for Sammy Watkins who they later traded for EJ Gaines and a 2nd round pick.

The one thing that remains constant is the Browns seem destined to win no more than four games, while the Bills are a near-lock to win six or seven. Which is particularly galling given that the Bills' personnel decisions make it appear that they're tanking. They can't even tank right!

I foresee the Browns having a top-three pick in April, while the Bills will have their own pick (figure somewhere around 14-16) and the Chiefs' (figure somewhere around 28-29). The Bills will trade both picks and Tyrod Taylor to the Browns for their pick, then draft a nose tackle. The Browns will draft QBs with both of the Bills' picks and both will suck. Whoever picks one or two spots after the Bills will get a Pro Bowl caliber QB. Neither team will hire Mark, but maybe they should.

Make G:TB Great Again: A Bills Season Preview, Alternatively Titled Zut Alors, C'est le Football Américain!

While we're all eager to celebrate all things football, this year's opening Sunday falls on a somber anniversary. I hope you find the time to reflect on that day and everything you've been fortunate to experience since then.

********

Now back to our regularly scheduled dipshittery.

Robert Mays beat me to the punch as to why the Bills will stink this year. In a nutshell, their defense lost Pro Bowler Marcell Dareus to rehab, first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to injuries, jawbreaker IK Enempkali to injury, Nigel Bradham to the Eagles, and Mario Williams to the team's general stupidity. And they cut Manny Lawson.

Accordingly, I am not optimistic that they will improve on last year's 8-8 record. In fact, here's how I see things unfolding weekly.

Most of these columns are self-explanatory, except for the "why" column, which I will explain.

"west coast" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's on the west coast. In the Pacific time zone, Buffalo is 16-36-1 all-time; 5-15 in their last twenty games; 2-9 since 2000; and 0-5 in their last five games. I see no reason for optimism in any of the road trips to Seattle (one of the best three teams in football with serious home field advantage), Oakland (everyone's favorite up-and-coming team), or LA (fearsome pass rush, Todd Gurley).

Running tally of losses: 3

"pats" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Pats. Against the Patriots, Buffalo is 4-28 since 2000; 2-18 in their last twenty games; and had a fifteen game losing streak from 2003 to 2010. The week 4 game will feature Jimmy Garappolo instead of Tom Brady, but Buffalo will lose anyway because it's at Gillette. In away games versus the Pats, the Bills are 20-36 all-time; 2-14 since 2000; 3-17 in their last 20 games; and had a twelve game losing streak from 2001 to 2013. Think about that last factoid--that span includes both of W's terms, all of Obama's first term and a year of his second term! I see no reason for optimism in these two games.

Running tally of losses: 5

"pitt" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, Buffalo is 8-13 all-time; 0-5 since 2000; 2-8 in their last ten games; and 1-8 all-time at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won 61 games in the past six years. By contrast, the Bills have won 59 games in the past nine seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Pittsburgh.

Running tally of losses: 6

"jets split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Jets because they are the Bills and Jets. Against the Jets, Buffalo is 17-15 since 2000 and 10-10 in their last twenty games. On the road against the Jets, the Bills are 27-28 all-time; 10-10 since 2000; and 8-12 in their last 20 games. Buffalo won the last five games in this series and the math makes it appear that this trend can't continue much longer.

Running tally of losses: 7

"fish split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Fish because they are the Bills and Fish. Against Miami, the Bills are 17-15 since 2000 and 12-8 in their last 20 games. In games played in Miami, the Bills are merely 17-32-1 all-time but 7-9 since 2000; 8-12 in their last 20 games; and 5-5 in their last ten games. Hence I predict a split. Miami will lose in Buffalo because the game will be played on December 24. I guarantee that the weather will be brutally cold (hence the "cold" in the "why" column) and will make the Floridians want to get back on the plane as soon as possible. Except for Jay Fiedler, they will also be unhappy that they have to travel western New York to play a game on Christmas Eve in a frozen wasteland of unemployment and alcoholism instead of celebrating the birth of the messiah with family and friends in beautiful south Florida.

Running tally of losses: 8

"good team" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against a good team. The Bengals made the playoffs five years running, with 52 wins over that span. By contrast, the Bills won 52 games over the past eight years and haven't made the playoffs in sixteen years. The Cardinals are no slouch either, with 34 wins and two playoff appearances over the past three seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Cincy or any game against the Cardinals.

Running tally of losses: 10

I think they can beat the Niners at home and the Ravens in Baltimore because they are bad teams, even badder than the Bills. They'll beat Cleveland because Cleveland used all its mojo up with the Cavaliers. I have no idea why they'll beat Jacksonville, I guess I'm just not picking up what the Jaguars are putting down. Splits with the Jets and Fish account for the other two wins.

So the Bills will go 6-10. If I'm in a really optimistic mood I might convince myself that Buffalo can sweep the Jets and Dolphins. Thus even my most optimistic view is another 8-8 season.

I'm happier to hear, and even encourage, rosier predictions for the Bills in the comments. But I don't expect any.

Here's what I think about Rex Ryan.

There is an inordinately optimistic number of Bills fans. Some might call them naive while others might select the word moronic, but for reasons I do not understand there are tons of the-glass-is-half-full persuasion on message boards like Two Bills Drive. Here are search results relating to EJ Manuel in April 2013. Comparisons to Warren Moon. To a better version of Daunte Culpepper. To a "grown-ass man." The headliner from the best first day of a draft since John Butler. Anyone who watched college football knew Manuel was ... limited. Despite our comments here at G:TB, Bills fans were positive.

And it turns out they were wrong.



I think this bodes well for the Bills' future because unlike drafting EJ, I am relatively enthused about Rex Ryan while folks on Bills message boards seem displeased. Many in the tri-state area also panned the hire including Mike Francesa who concluded that Ryan is a bad coach because he isn't as good as "Paaaahcells." Here's why I'm all in.

1. The Bills didn't put themselves in this position.

As you may recall, the Bills didn't fire their previous coach, he resigned. Perhaps the Billsiest thing that could possibly happen, their head coach literally quit on the team to become the O-line coach for the 4-12 Jaguars. So it's not like the Bills put themselves in the position of needing to hire a new coach, their old coach did it to them suddenly and unexpectedly. They needed to make lemonade out of lemons and I think they did.

FYI, here's what a google image search for buffalo lemonade dredges up:

I think I got chlamydia just from looking at that picture.

2. There wasn't anyone out there clearly better.

I ask everyone who shat upon this hiring to suggest someone better. When making such a list the natural starting point would be available coaches with rings ("CWR"). There are a fair number of CWR out there but none would fit. Bill Parcells and Jimmy Johnson have multiple rings but they are old and have no reason to stand on a frozen Buffalo sideline at this point in their lives. Ditto Dick Vermeil, Joe Gibbs, and George Seifert.

Gruden, Cowher, Dungy, and Billick have cushy TV gigs that they aren't giving up.

CWR Mike Shanahan is available but after what he did in Washington I don't think he's a legitimate option anymore. I have no idea where Holmgren and Switzer are, but I think they're equally illegitimate now too.

All the other CWR I can think of already have coaching jobs with better teams.

The next place to look would be recently fired head coaches. That would be Rex, Mike Smith, Dennis Allen, Tony Sparano, and Marc Trestman. Not exactly a stocked vineyard. John Fox wasn't fired yet when the Bills hired Rex and I'm not particularly enamored with him anyway. I think there was never a doubt that Jim Harbaugh was going to Michigan so he doesn't count either.

That leaves all the popular coordinators and I don't buy into any of them. Adam Gase would be a bad hire. Denver ran the same offense that Peyton Manning had in Indy so it's not like Gase came up with the system. Instead, he has one of the best QBs of all time directing the system he used for 17 years and probably is just as much the OC as Gase. If anything, Peyton should be in line for a HC job somewhere.

Dan Quinn runs a high school system in Seattle. They're successful because Seattle has an insanely talented defense. Quinn was born in Morristown NJ and he coached at William & Mary so I ought to like him, but sitting here today I can't tell if he's a good coach or if he just lucked into a remarkably talented team at the right time.

People were excited about Darrel Bevell but then he did this:



Todd Bowles got some love in the media but clearly he's nuts. He hired Chan Gailey to be his offensive coordinator. Terrible.

Now if Buffalo got a guy like Urban Meyer or Gus Malzahn or some other genius from the college ranks I might be more excited. But of course for every Pete Carroll or Jimmy Johnson you have a Chan Gailey or a Doug Marrone. College coaches are by no means a sure bet.

In light of the foregoing, Rex is the least of multiple evils.

3. An offensive coach won't solve this team's problems.

I've heard myriad people say that the Bills should've hired an offensive coach. Not that Rex isn't offensive--he is from a behavioral perspective--but an offensive coach can't solve this team's problems.

This was the first winning season for the Bills since 2004. From 2004 to 2014 the Bills had four head coaches and one interim head coach. Three of those four were offensively minded. Here's how they did:

Two above average years with respect to points but otherwise all of these offenses stunk. Probably because the offensive players stunk. Much like Buffalo's current stinky QB situation. Simply put, no one can make this team into a scoring machine with the current personnel.

To illustrate my point, here are the various rankings of Brian Billick's teams. (Click on the image to make it bigger.)

Completely devoid of context, you would think that Billick was an offensive genius from 1994 to 1998, at which point he hit his head and became offensively inept but simultaneously transformed into a defensive mastermind. But you know that isn't the case--he had one of the best offenses of all time in Minnesota and one of the best defenses of all time in Baltimore. The players make the coach. Even the great Bill Belichick is 47-49 without Tom Brady (including his 11-5 season with Matt Cassel).

A really good offensive game-planner like Bruce "Kangol Kid" Arians might be able to eke an extra win or two out of this offense, but he already has a job.

4. Rex can make Buffalo's defense historically good.

Buffalo's defense was really really good last year. I think Rex can make it historically good in at least two ways.

First, he's one of if not the best defensive minds in the game. With the talent on the roster, including former defensive ROY Kiko Alonso who missed all of last year dude to injury, Rexy should be able to scheme up some nasty shit.

Second, I think he'll be very good at recruiting players. For example, Darrelle Revis is a free agent and I wouldn't be surprised if he would like to reunite with Rex. It's hard to get people to come to Buffalo. A guy like Rex provides a reason.

Sure, the offense will probably suck largely due to the QB situation, but Ryan went to the AFC Championship Game with Mark Sanchez ... twice!

The Bills were handed a bit of a shit sandwich when their coach spontaneously walked away from the team. Facing an unexpected coaching vacancy in a market with sexier options for head coaching opportunities, they hired someone with previous head coaching experience and success in the playoffs who is also considered to be a defensive genius who could make the most of the team's outstanding defensive personnel. If Rex is worth one or two more wins than Marrone, which I think is probably the case, then Buffalo might actually get a playoff game for the first time since the Clinton administration.

I like to complain ... a lot, about everything including the Bills. But I can't complain about this outcome.

zman's Annual Bills/Browns Preview, Alternatively Titled "Why do I keep doing this to myself?"

This is the seventh Bills/Browns game in eight years and my fourth preview of these usually meaningless games. I say "usually meaningless" because these teams always finish at the bottom of their divisions, hence the annual matchups, but this year both teams are above 0.500 and the Browns are legitimate playoff contenders. The Browns have won four of the last six meetings and I suspect they'll win again on Sunday.



That said, these teams are remarkably similar, at first blush. The Bills have scored 238 points and allowed 207 (good for +31) while Cleveland has scored 242 points and allowed 219 (+23). Both teams have young first-round QB's riding the pine behind old journeymen. They rank 6th and 9th (clicks!) in terms of lowest turnover percentage, and they rank 16th and 17th in terms of highest scoring percentage. That said, they arrive at the same place via different routes.

The Bills get most of their offensive work done through short efficient passes and avoiding INTs. They've attempted the 13th most passes but have the 6th fewest yards per attempt. But that's ok with me because they're only 1 TD behind the league average and only four teams have a lower INT%. The running game is a bit of an afterthought--only five teams have fewer rush attempts and they all suck (ATL, JAX, TEN, TB, OAK) so they're probably stuck playing catch-up all the time and thus passing. The Bills have only 5 rushing TD; only four teams have fewer (PIT, SD, OAK, and TB all have 4 rushing TD). They finally got a RB over the 300 yard mark for the season last week (Boobie Dixon) and no one has more than 80 carries after eleven games. For the first time in forever their rush defense is good, ranking eighth, second, and tenth in rushing yards, rushing TD, and rushing yards/attempt, respectively. They also lead the league with 46 sacks, good for a 10.5% sack percentage which is almost two full points more than the next best team (Philly).



As I noted previously, the Browns have the lowest completion percentage in the league--55.6%, tied with the Jets and almost three full percentage points below the #30 team. But they have average more yards per completion than any other team--14.0 yards, which is 1.1 yards more than the #2 team (the Tennessee Inbreds). I guess this means that the Browns go for broke in the passing game and swing for the fences every time Brian Hoyer drops back. So it's odd that they have only 11 passing TD, 29th in the NFL. They do, however, have the second most rushing attempts and rushing TD, so maybe their plan is to throw bombs to get to the goal line and then pound it in from there. Or maybe they grind it out for the most part, occasionally taking deep shots down the field and being successful about half the time. Unfortunately for Buffalo, Josh Gordon returned to Cleveland's lineup last week after serving a 10 game suspension. In case you don't watch much of the NFL, Josh Gordon is really good at football, particularly the aforementioned "deep shots" aspect of football.



Cleveland's defense is stout against the pass (ranking ninth, eight, and first in passing yards, passing TD, and INT, respectively) and willowy against the run (ranking twenty-ninth, seventeenth, and twenty-eight in rushing yards, rushing TD, and rushing yards/attempt, respectively).

So on paper this should be a good matchup with both teams' strengths countered by the other's strengths. Ultimately though all of the previous comparing and contrasting was useless. Josh Gordon's return throws all those numbers out the window and Cleveland's offense will take a leap forward and will be too much for the Bills to handle. Further, Cleveland hasn't allowed more than 24 points in seven weeks (and only twice all season) while Buffalo has scored more than 24 points only three times all year and two of those games were against the Jets so they don't really count.



Plus if Buffalo wins this week then they have a good shot at winning eight games (the eighth win being Oakland in week 16) and that simply can't happen.

Final score: Browns 17, Bills 11

Because Teedge Suggested It ...

I commented on tonight's Bills game yesterday thinking yesterday was today. Teedge noted that yesterday was yesterday, not today, and suggested that I write about today's game. So I wrote this last night, which as I sit here typing is actually today, but not the same today as the today in which the Bills play the Dolphins.

Just as yesterday and today are confusingly the same, so too are these AFC East squadrons. Both teams are 5-4 coming off close painful losses which were preceded by major blowouts. The Bills and Fins are ranked #20 and #21 respectively in passing offense which is somewhat surprising given that only a handful of teams in the league jettison their current QB in favor of Kyle Orton or Ryan Tannehill (I'm looking at you Houston, Tampa, St. Louis, NYJ and Tennessee!). They are below league average in yards per attempt, yards per completion, yards per game, and TD percentage. Surprisingly, both teams are above league average in INT % and QB rating. And they're pretty close to each other in all of these metrics.

At a more granular level their passing offenses consist of one good receiver and a bunch of dreck. Sammy Watkins has played very well for a rookie WR and the Bills win whenever he goes over 100 yards. (Parenthetically, I think the standard for young WR needs to be adjusted. It seems like preposterously dominant young WR are suddenly ubiquitous. Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffrey, Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, and Keenan Allen have all entered the league since 2010. Either this is a golden age of wide receivers or the rule changes have thrown everything out of whack.) Watkins has 617 yards so far; the second closest Buffalo receiver has 346. The gap twixt Sammy and the rest of the team would be about five yards bigger but for this play.



Meanwhile, Mike Wallace carries the receiving load for Miami with 519 yards. The next closest Dolphin has 354 yards.

I think both players are held back by their QB situations. If you're going to mortgage your future to trade up for, or pay $60 million to acquire, a great WR, you should make sure your QB is at least serviceable. The Bills apparently realized this a few weeks after the draft so they ran out and gave $10 million to Orton who at the time was retired.

The jury is still out on Tannehill and I'm not buying just yet, he's too spotty to rely on long term.

The similarities continue on defense--Miami is ranked #4 and Buffalo is #7. Paradoxically, a team named after an aquatic mammal is absolutely deadly against airborne attack, allowing only 210.8 passing yards per game (second best in the league). The Bills allow 224.6 passing yards per game, seventh best in the league. And they sit at third and fourth in terms of lowest opposing QB rating.

And both teams are stout against the run. Actually, let me rephrase ... after years of pissing and moaning about Buffalo's run defense, I'm delighted to report that they've allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards so far this year! At only 3.7 yards per carry, they are the seventh best team in this regard! No slouch either, Miami is tenth and eleventh in these categories.

So what does all this mean? A Bills loss, in all likelihood. Here's why. After this game they have the following schedule: NYJ, CLE, @DEN, GB, @OAK, @NE. They will doubtlessly lose the Denver, Green Bay, and New England games. I expect them to beat the Jets at home and Oakland (even though they have to fly across the country to do it). That's 7 wins and 7 losses. Buffalo is clearly prohibited from being over 0.500 for the season (haven't done so since they went 9-7 in 2004) so they have to have to lose two more games, which would be Cleveland and this Miami game. It's fate.

Further, Buffalo's running game is in shambles. Only 10 teams have fewer rushing yards and only nine teams average fewer yards per carry. Fred Jackson is back but gingerly, leaving Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon to carry/fumble most of the load. As an aside, whenever I hear "boobie" I think Hey Ma.



Meanwhile, only seven teams have more rushing yards than Miami and only four teams average more yards per carry.

Adding to my concerns is that Orton hasn't thrown a pick since October 19 so he's due, probably for a plurality of INTs. And Tannehill plays well in alternating weeks, putting up triple-digit QB ratings and >8 yards/attempt one week followed by ratings in the low eighties the next. He rating was 81.8 in last week's loss so I expect about 275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, a completion percentage hovering around 70% and maybe a rushing TD too.

Final score: Buffalo 17 Miami 31

Special bonus image--I couldn't figure out how to work this in but it's too good to ignore.

Another Reason to Root for the Seahawks

As a general rule, the team with the most Bills loses the Super Bowl. For example, the Bills lost every Super Bowl in which they appeared. Gale Gilbert rode the pine in four Buffalo Super Bowls, then lost a fifth consecutive SB with the Chargers (and the Niners team that beat them had no former Bills). Former Bill Don Beebe won a SB with the Packers, but the Patriots team he beat had former Bill Monty Brown and three future Bills: Drew Bledsoe, Lawyer Milloy, and Sam Gash.

Former Bill Marshawn Lynch seeks to buck this trend this weekend. Here's what he had to say at Media Day:



You have to love and appreciate a guy who refers to himself in the third person, stating "Beast Mode luh an' appreciate that" upon learning that Marshall Faulk respects his game. Throwing in a "Yez lawd!" at the end only makes him that much more lovable and appreciable. As does stuff like this.