Thursday, November 13, 2014

Because Teedge Suggested It ...

I commented on tonight's Bills game yesterday thinking yesterday was today. Teedge noted that yesterday was yesterday, not today, and suggested that I write about today's game. So I wrote this last night, which as I sit here typing is actually today, but not the same today as the today in which the Bills play the Dolphins.

Just as yesterday and today are confusingly the same, so too are these AFC East squadrons. Both teams are 5-4 coming off close painful losses which were preceded by major blowouts. The Bills and Fins are ranked #20 and #21 respectively in passing offense which is somewhat surprising given that only a handful of teams in the league jettison their current QB in favor of Kyle Orton or Ryan Tannehill (I'm looking at you Houston, Tampa, St. Louis, NYJ and Tennessee!). They are below league average in yards per attempt, yards per completion, yards per game, and TD percentage. Surprisingly, both teams are above league average in INT % and QB rating. And they're pretty close to each other in all of these metrics.

At a more granular level their passing offenses consist of one good receiver and a bunch of dreck. Sammy Watkins has played very well for a rookie WR and the Bills win whenever he goes over 100 yards. (Parenthetically, I think the standard for young WR needs to be adjusted. It seems like preposterously dominant young WR are suddenly ubiquitous. Demaryius Thomas, AJ Green, Julio Jones, Dez Bryant, Alshon Jeffrey, Antonio Brown, Randall Cobb, Eric Decker, and Keenan Allen have all entered the league since 2010. Either this is a golden age of wide receivers or the rule changes have thrown everything out of whack.) Watkins has 617 yards so far; the second closest Buffalo receiver has 346. The gap twixt Sammy and the rest of the team would be about five yards bigger but for this play.

sammy watkins

Meanwhile, Mike Wallace carries the receiving load for Miami with 519 yards. The next closest Dolphin has 354 yards.

I think both players are held back by their QB situations. If you're going to mortgage your future to trade up for, or pay $60 million to acquire, a great WR, you should make sure your QB is at least serviceable. The Bills apparently realized this a few weeks after the draft so they ran out and gave $10 million to Orton who at the time was retired.


The jury is still out on Tannehill and I'm not buying just yet, he's too spotty to rely on long term.


The similarities continue on defense--Miami is ranked #4 and Buffalo is #7. Paradoxically, a team named after an aquatic mammal is absolutely deadly against airborne attack, allowing only 210.8 passing yards per game (second best in the league). The Bills allow 224.6 passing yards per game, seventh best in the league. And they sit at third and fourth in terms of lowest opposing QB rating.

And both teams are stout against the run. Actually, let me rephrase ... after years of pissing and moaning about Buffalo's run defense, I'm delighted to report that they've allowed the eighth fewest rushing yards so far this year! At only 3.7 yards per carry, they are the seventh best team in this regard! No slouch either, Miami is tenth and eleventh in these categories.


So what does all this mean? A Bills loss, in all likelihood. Here's why. After this game they have the following schedule: NYJ, CLE, @DEN, GB, @OAK, @NE. They will doubtlessly lose the Denver, Green Bay, and New England games. I expect them to beat the Jets at home and Oakland (even though they have to fly across the country to do it). That's 7 wins and 7 losses. Buffalo is clearly prohibited from being over 0.500 for the season (haven't done so since they went 9-7 in 2004) so they have to have to lose two more games, which would be Cleveland and this Miami game. It's fate.

Further, Buffalo's running game is in shambles. Only 10 teams have fewer rushing yards and only nine teams average fewer yards per carry. Fred Jackson is back but gingerly, leaving Bryce Brown and Boobie Dixon to carry/fumble most of the load. As an aside, whenever I hear "boobie" I think Hey Ma.



Meanwhile, only seven teams have more rushing yards than Miami and only four teams average more yards per carry.

Adding to my concerns is that Orton hasn't thrown a pick since October 19 so he's due, probably for a plurality of INTs. And Tannehill plays well in alternating weeks, putting up triple-digit QB ratings and >8 yards/attempt one week followed by ratings in the low eighties the next. He rating was 81.8 in last week's loss so I expect about 275 yards, 2 TD, 0 INT, a completion percentage hovering around 70% and maybe a rushing TD too.

Final score: Buffalo 17 Miami 31

Special bonus image--I couldn't figure out how to work this in but it's too good to ignore.

47 comments:

Danimal said...

who has the time and desire to go back and look at z's previous bills' analysiseses to determine his record? z? anyone?
and it's a nice analysis. mark and I could learn something with this. could, but won't. bills getting 5.5 this evening and the o/u is 42.5.

zman said...

I'm likely oh-fer-sixty-nine.

I forgot to add that Miami has allowed only 47 points in the last 4 games. I'll call that 12 per game.

Buffalo has scored 17 or fewer points in 5 of their last 7 (the outliers being 43 against the hapless Jest and 22 at home against the Pats).

This doesn't bode well for Buffalo.

T.J. said...

bravo, sir

Mark said...

Shlara- to your question about a GTB road trip for Tribe-Gators. I brought it up to Rob a while back but he had bidness plans and shut me down.

Danimal said...

since 8:35 am that line has moved (on my site anyway) to bills +4 and an o/u of 41.5
since z all but guaranteed the under, a wager has been placed. thanks for the free money. gambling is so easy.

zman said...

I predicted 48 points scored, which I guess is a guarantee under 41.5.

T.J. said...

rob started a side business:
http://www.savingssquirrel.com/

Clarence said...

I know it's not pronounced like that, but I think he should be called "Business" Rasual Butler.

Clarence said...

And that cat tat is horrible. I race right by it.

Mark said...

Second time that tattoo has been featured on G:TB, I believe.

Shlara said...

Rob--we could have road trip without you!
Especially since its 35 degrees and sleeting in NoVA--sunny Gator country would be lovely.

And, did anyone else see Michele Roberts comments today (new NBA union chief) Deadspin's analysis of her comments and Silver's response is pretty good

rob said...

someone needs to talk me out of betting way too much money on florida state -2 @ miami

rob said...

also, sources tell me that the tribe coaching staff isn't thrilled with the squad's cohesion or toughness. tomorrow might be a bit ugly.

zman said...

That's some inspired red zone offense right there.

zman said...

The kid from American Beauty now does anonymous Lexus ads?

TR said...

Wes Bentley is in Interstellar as well.

I just had an "Oh yeah! I did eat corn yesterday." Moment on the commode. Never gets old.

zman said...

Is Wes Bentley the kid from Star Trek?

zman said...

I hate 47 yard FG attempts.

zman said...

Bryce Brown on a fly route? Really? Marrone truly is an offensive genius.

Marls said...

To be fair, that route was pretty fly.

Mark said...

Bad Habit by the Kooks is quite the toe tapper.

Mark said...

Rob- I'm not here to talk you out of anything but Vegas isn't dumb and FSU is 1-8 ATS so far this season.

KQ said...

can someone please do a mashup of that cat ass tattoo and kim kardashian's magazine cover?

Mark said...

Must be nice to play football at FSU http://nyti.ms/1x1XE4Q

rootsminer said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
zman said...

Where's the link?

rootsminer said...

Hiya Gheorghies. If you like to spend your Friday nights listening to old timey radio, check out this link and click the listen live button. Show is at 8pm tonight.

I'll be doing some radio acting, and our jug band will do a skit where my wife throws out my home brew because my monkey got into it. Should be a good time, if you're into that sort of thing.

rootsminer said...

Sorry Z. My html skills are rusty. It's there now.

Danimal said...

I like me some Kooks.
And FSU - I can't be surprised right?
Almost beer thirty.

Mark said...

Rob- Florida-W&M line is 18.5. Ill be taking the Tribe.

rob said...

god bless you, mark

zman said...

Rootsy, was the the monkey and the engineer? Or the monkey in the window?

rootsminer said...

Tune in to find out. Tonight at eight.

rob said...

well teased, rootsy

zman said...

Like my Johnson.

Mark said...

Glad I forgot to actually place my Tribe wager. Y'all couldn't even break 50?

zman said...

Rootsy pon de mike!

rob said...

we're gonna need some time to gel, mark. don't judge us.

rob said...

my top 10 songs post is up to about 5000 words. dumbest idea ever.

rob said...

just looked at the box score. tribe played that game without two starters. point guard (schlotman) and best defensive forward/rebounder (tarpey) both out with injuries. that result isn't great, but it's easy to explain.

Mark said...

I was at the local church's fall festival with the family tonight so I didn't see any of the game. I assume the Tribe looked like poop.

Mark said...

You're supposed to give us that info ahead of time, Rob.

rob said...

i knew they were questionable - didn't know for sure they wouldn't start.

TR said...

There is what appears to be an 11 y/o white boy playing for Louisville this year.

Mark said...

I saw that too. I flipped back and immediately thought Louisville had blown the game open and had brought in the walk ons.

rootsminer said...

Z, you tuned in? Cool.

zman said...

Yes. I didn't know you could act.