Roger Goodell is Still a Donkey

Almost seven years ago I wrote a post about Tom Brady's affection for tender balls (and Aaron Rodgers's preference for turgid balls) and the Deflategate fiasco.  I followed that up with another post comparing the NFL to Chotchkie's.  As an aside, I think I did a better job summarizing the situation than most other media outlets.  

You may recall that Roger Goodell suspended Tom Brady for four games by analogizing deflating balls to taking steroids.  The trial court judge scoffed at that comparison, writing that Goodell's punishment:

offers no scientific, empirical, or historical evidence of any comparability between Brady's alleged offense and steroid use.  Often, steroid use has to do with critical issues of health, injury, addiction, and peer pressure, among other factors.  See Steroid Policy at 1-2 (listing several factors related to the use of "Prohibited Substances," including "a number of physiological, psychological, orthopedic, reproductive, and other serious health problems, [such as] heart disease, liver cancer, musculoskeletal growth defects, strokes, and infertility"). None of these factors is (remotely) present here.

You know what is associated with serious health problems?  Covid-19.  So if a player violates the NFL's covid-19 policy, I would expect them to be suspended for at least one game because it's analogous to the league's steroid policy.

Predictably, Roger Goodell doesn't see it that way.  He fined Rodgers $14,650 for attending a Halloween party without being vaccinated.  The fact that Rodgers lied about his vaccination status didn't factor into the fine amount.  Rodgers makes $22,364,706 this year so the fine represents 0.0655% of his salary.

This makes perfect sense.  You let a little air out of a football, or "it is more probable than not" that you were "at least generally aware" that two baciagaloops let the air out of a football, and the league takes 25% of your pay.  If you help perpetuate a global plague that has killed over 750,000 Americans by refusing to take a free, safe, and effective vaccine or to wear a mask and avoid crowds, the league takes about seven hundredths of a percent of your salary.  

Player safety!  America's game!  Nice job Goodell.

via Gfycat

Make G:TB Great Again: A Bills Season Preview, Alternatively Titled Zut Alors, C'est le Football Américain!

While we're all eager to celebrate all things football, this year's opening Sunday falls on a somber anniversary. I hope you find the time to reflect on that day and everything you've been fortunate to experience since then.

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Now back to our regularly scheduled dipshittery.

Robert Mays beat me to the punch as to why the Bills will stink this year. In a nutshell, their defense lost Pro Bowler Marcell Dareus to rehab, first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to injuries, jawbreaker IK Enempkali to injury, Nigel Bradham to the Eagles, and Mario Williams to the team's general stupidity. And they cut Manny Lawson.

Accordingly, I am not optimistic that they will improve on last year's 8-8 record. In fact, here's how I see things unfolding weekly.

Most of these columns are self-explanatory, except for the "why" column, which I will explain.

"west coast" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's on the west coast. In the Pacific time zone, Buffalo is 16-36-1 all-time; 5-15 in their last twenty games; 2-9 since 2000; and 0-5 in their last five games. I see no reason for optimism in any of the road trips to Seattle (one of the best three teams in football with serious home field advantage), Oakland (everyone's favorite up-and-coming team), or LA (fearsome pass rush, Todd Gurley).

Running tally of losses: 3

"pats" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Pats. Against the Patriots, Buffalo is 4-28 since 2000; 2-18 in their last twenty games; and had a fifteen game losing streak from 2003 to 2010. The week 4 game will feature Jimmy Garappolo instead of Tom Brady, but Buffalo will lose anyway because it's at Gillette. In away games versus the Pats, the Bills are 20-36 all-time; 2-14 since 2000; 3-17 in their last 20 games; and had a twelve game losing streak from 2001 to 2013. Think about that last factoid--that span includes both of W's terms, all of Obama's first term and a year of his second term! I see no reason for optimism in these two games.

Running tally of losses: 5

"pitt" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, Buffalo is 8-13 all-time; 0-5 since 2000; 2-8 in their last ten games; and 1-8 all-time at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won 61 games in the past six years. By contrast, the Bills have won 59 games in the past nine seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Pittsburgh.

Running tally of losses: 6

"jets split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Jets because they are the Bills and Jets. Against the Jets, Buffalo is 17-15 since 2000 and 10-10 in their last twenty games. On the road against the Jets, the Bills are 27-28 all-time; 10-10 since 2000; and 8-12 in their last 20 games. Buffalo won the last five games in this series and the math makes it appear that this trend can't continue much longer.

Running tally of losses: 7

"fish split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Fish because they are the Bills and Fish. Against Miami, the Bills are 17-15 since 2000 and 12-8 in their last 20 games. In games played in Miami, the Bills are merely 17-32-1 all-time but 7-9 since 2000; 8-12 in their last 20 games; and 5-5 in their last ten games. Hence I predict a split. Miami will lose in Buffalo because the game will be played on December 24. I guarantee that the weather will be brutally cold (hence the "cold" in the "why" column) and will make the Floridians want to get back on the plane as soon as possible. Except for Jay Fiedler, they will also be unhappy that they have to travel western New York to play a game on Christmas Eve in a frozen wasteland of unemployment and alcoholism instead of celebrating the birth of the messiah with family and friends in beautiful south Florida.

Running tally of losses: 8

"good team" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against a good team. The Bengals made the playoffs five years running, with 52 wins over that span. By contrast, the Bills won 52 games over the past eight years and haven't made the playoffs in sixteen years. The Cardinals are no slouch either, with 34 wins and two playoff appearances over the past three seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Cincy or any game against the Cardinals.

Running tally of losses: 10

I think they can beat the Niners at home and the Ravens in Baltimore because they are bad teams, even badder than the Bills. They'll beat Cleveland because Cleveland used all its mojo up with the Cavaliers. I have no idea why they'll beat Jacksonville, I guess I'm just not picking up what the Jaguars are putting down. Splits with the Jets and Fish account for the other two wins.

So the Bills will go 6-10. If I'm in a really optimistic mood I might convince myself that Buffalo can sweep the Jets and Dolphins. Thus even my most optimistic view is another 8-8 season.

I'm happier to hear, and even encourage, rosier predictions for the Bills in the comments. But I don't expect any.

Your 2030 Super Cup Champions

While we've seen the numbers in black and white, and the trend's been unavoidable, it's still hard for the older observers among us to believe that the 2030 American Rugby Football Union (ARFU) Super Cup got higher ratings than the NFL's Super Bowl LXIV. More than 115 million viewers watched as Denver Barbarians wing Oz Hightower scored a last-minute try to cap a thrilling comeback and beat Old Blue of New York, 20-18 in last week's Super Cup match.

As recently as the early 2010s, rugby was an afterthought in American sports, something played by collegians and small handfuls of old-timers chasing past glory and a great party. But the long-germinating seeds of the NFL's decline took root in early 2013 when a UCLA study found signs of chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) in living retired professional football players. On the heels of several high-profile suicides by retired NFL players like Junior Seau and in the midst of a number of lawsuits by former players, the UCLA study triggered a national debate about football and our tolerance for violence as entertainment. The Atlantic columnist Ta-Nehisi Coates wrote presciently at the time,

This is when you start thinking about football and an existential crisis. I don't know what the adults will do. But you tell a parent that their kid has a five percent chance of developing crippling brain damage through playing a sport, and you will see the end of Pop Warner and probably the end of high school football. Colleges would likely follow. (How common are college boxing teams these days?)

After that, I don't know how pro football can stand for long.

Baltimore safety Bernard Pollard put a player's face on Coates' argument before Super Bowl XLVII, predicting that the NFL would be out of existence within 30 years. He was unavailable for comment after the game as a result of the concussion he suffered during his team's 31-20 loss to the San Francisco 49ers.

If the UCLA study was a significant public relations blow for the NFL, the 2015 legal ruling awarding $1.2 billion in damages to the families of players injured during their careers was an economic gutpunch. Shortly thereafter, the league outlawed high tackles, ironically borrowing a rule from rugby, but the NFL's popularity would never again reach its 2012 peak.

While the NFL struggled with the obvious tension between its celebration of violent hits and claims to emphasize player safety (in one particularly memorable juxtaposition, the league fined Pittsburgh Steeler James Harrison $75,000 for a 2010 hit on Cleveland's Mohamed Massaquoi - and then sold pictures of the hit on its website), rugby began to grow steadily. International and college sevens matches made for compelling television, and the 2016 Rio Olympics were a significant stage for the game - enough so that the ARFU was founded shortly after the Games, with eight teams in traditional rugby hotbeds like San Francisco, New York, and Boston.

By 2022, the NFL had experienced six consecutive years of ratings declines, which hurt the league significantly as it negotiated new television deals with its broadcast partners. At the same time, the ARFU inked its first national television contract, with NBC Sports Network signing to broadcast a Match of the Week and the entire playoffs.

Though President Barack Obama talked about football's need to address its concussion issue as far back as 2013, the tragic on-field death of USC wide receiver Torey Butler in 2025 spurred a theretofore slow-moving Congress into action. Led by Massachusetts Senator Tom Brady, a bipartisan effort in both chambers resulted in significant new player safety and equipment rules for football at all levels. Decried by hard-liners as the Mark Kelsoization of the game, the legislation stopped short of banning the sport, but had a material impact on how it was played.

Two years later, the NFL awarded a new television contract to TNT and Apple after no major networks bid on the package. Meanwhile, ESPN joined NBC Sports Network as a broadcast partner for the ARFU, which increased to 16 teams. All of the rugby league's games were now televised nationally.

In  2028, Jonathan James, the top pick in NFL draft, spurned the league to sign with the ARFU Dallas Harlequins. The Cal grad starred at running back for the Bears' gridiron squad while doing double duty as a wing on their national champion rugby squad.

Just this year, in a move rumored for some time, the NFL contracted to 24 teams while the ARFU expanded to 20. Commissioner Tim Tebow (and quite a story his ascension was, to be sure) is rumored to be in talks with the upstart American Rugby League to develop a hybrid football/rugby game to compete with the ARFU.

And now, we see ARFU ratings exceed those of the NFL for the first time. We still like our violence, it seems, but we're increasingly unwilling to let it come at such cost. Like boxing before it, American football seems destined to decline slowly, but absolutely surely, until it becomes a quaintly barbaric anachronism.

It was fun while it lasted, though.