Thursday, January 04, 2018

Jags vs Bills - Part 3

For all of the reasons Z presents as to why the Bills can win, one might guess there may be as many that would allow someone, in this case me, to support the argument that the Jags should not only win, but win by 9-9.5 points as prescribed by the bookmakers. One might think.

Before heading down that road, it very much surprised me when I saw Jax favored by as many points points when I first saw the line on Tuesday. I read today (Thur) that there was a line as low as 6.5 when it opened up, but most were at 7.5. Regardless, that's a pretty big variance between opening and today's, not uncommon but not normal either. Before checking a spread, like most, I guess beforehand what the number is going to be. Three to 3.5 points was my hunch fwtftw. Both teams are...meh. Decent. One at 10-6 in a weak division and with a weak schedule as has been pointed out, the other 9-7 with nothing too much to shout about either. Neither squad has any significant playoff experience within their roster or coaching staff. We all know of the parity that exists within the league. It is a common occurrence for a cellar dweller to beat a perennial powerhouse. Because of the parity, my NFL wagers are kept to a minimum. Betting is difficult to begin with but in the NFL, it's impossibly unpredictable. You see a spread like this one and think it's nuts. Anything more than 4 would have raised my eyebrow. But NINE? Most would think it's a no-brainer to bet on the Bills.Then you bet on the Bills thinking it's a lay-up and the Jags end up winning by 24. That's what kind of line this is - the "no-brainer boned in the ass line". Or is it?

Speaking of roads, this is a view from the backseat of my Bahamian taxi en route to the airport today...Three Stooges! On Video!

Let's take a look at common opponents - Cinci - Indy - NYJ

Cin 7 at Jax 23
BB 16 at Cin 20
Sure, the home game is worth about 3 points so we'll grant them that. We can agree that Cinci is no bueno though, no? The washed up QB that is Andy Dalton was held to 10 of 18 and 136 in North Florida. Zero Touchdowns. Of course, AJ Green was escorted off the field for committing an assault and battery against Jalen Ramsey but damn. Do they run the option there in Cinci?
(If you were curious, Dalton threw 2 pics, 1 TD and 22-38 for 338 yards in their win against the Bills)

Jax 27 at Indy 0   
Indy 7 at BB 13
Indy 10 at Jax 30
Advantage Jagoffville with an average margin of victory 3+ TD's versus 2 Field Goals.

Jax 20 at  NYJ 23
NYJ 12 at BB 21
BB 21 at NYJ 34
We'll call it a push.

If we take the Jags lesser productive of their two against Indy; and the Bills lesser of theirs against the NYJ, the cumulative scores are Jax 73 - Jax Opponents 40; and Buffalo 50 - Buffalo Opponents 61

Taking the better of the two: Jax 70 - Jax Opponents 30; and Buffalo Opponents 50 - Buffalo 39
Advantage - Jacksonville

Other quick stats provided by our friends at Reference.com
Rankings
Total offense Buff - 29th; 31st in Passing Yards; 27th in Passing TD's; 6th in Rushing Yards; 15th in Rushing TD

Total Defense Jax - 5th; 2nd in Total Yards allowed; 1st in Passing Yards allowed; 21st in Rushing Yards allowed; 6th in Rushing TD's allowed.

But all of these numbers mean diddly. Reason being, it's the Playoffs, game 1. The Bills just won a game to get into the tournament, a game they absolutely had to win to do so and on the road. They won the week prior to that, and 3 of the last 4. They've got the mojo and an uber-efficient QB that makes nary a miscue.

We've got a little bit of the opposite, losing the last 2 and....Bortles. He's not the worst quarterback in the league, but he can be sometimes. Except when it comes to being a stickman. Word is out in Jax - he likes to surf. The bars, that is! One of Blake's friends below...
This game is all about him & McCoy. Is Bortles playing to win or not to lose? He's got an immense amount of pressure on him. He holds our city on his shoulders. Does he feel it? And will McCoy's ankle be strong enough to allow him to take advantage of our weakness that is our running defense? I look forward to seeing the crowd and the energy they bring - it will be a far different environment than the norm and should negate much if not all of that negative mojo the Jags are carrying. Throw in the teal beer & food....watch out!

Assuming a healthy Shady and a turnover ratio that is kept to -1 or better for the Jags (that's right, I'm considering a net -1 for us to be just fine), I like the Jags winning but the Bills covering. Shady rendered useless and that same -1 turnover margin, vaJJ by 9 and then some. Bortles playing like he has in his more recent games will make this a very close contest decided on the last possession.

Jacksonville 16
Buffalo 13

99 comments:

rob said...

go ahead, danimal

Whitney said...

I like this Point/Counterpoint. And fact-based, especially good in this new era of fact relegation and biased opinion promulgation.

Whitney said...

Snow Day 4 Day Weekend. Game on.

Mark said...

When we were in Jacksonville in November our fitness showed us a picture Blake took with their kids when they spotted him out at, wait for it, a bar. Apparently he was getting in to the Tequila. Not that there’s anything wrong with that.

rootsminer said...

I hear fitness tequila is all the rage.

I'm off tequila for life since high school. Too much cactus jack ruined it for me one fateful afternoon.

TR said...

My crippled kid will be at a neigbor’s house. My other will be at The Showman w/ the wife. If ET the house to myself for a few hours on a Friday night. This never ever happens. And I am on the wagon. Not sure what folks who don’t drink do. I guess I’ll be stripped to the waist, eating a block of cheese the size of a car battery.

Marls said...

I’m doing dry January as well and my in laws just arrived. FML.

Dave said...

i was on the wagon for the new year but the wagon got stuck in the snow so i got off last night. i'm still off the wagon right now . . . next week, when the roads clear, i'll get back on the wagon. it's not safe to be on it now.

zman said...

Fuck the wagon.

This is great work by Danimal, fka D-Train. HOWEVAH, I don't think the Colts and Bolts games are fair comps because Nathan Peterman started both; the Colts game was in a torrential blizzard; and the Bills played the Bolts in LA while the Jaguars played them in JAX. I agree that all hope is lost for Buffalo if McCoy doesn't play.

Whitney said...

No wagon no cry.

zman said...

I left my wagon in El Segundo.

rootsminer said...

I wish I'd bought me a half a pint and stayed in the wagon yard.

rob said...

shlara might be on to something. your w&m tribe is 3-0 in league play for the first time in 20 years, and solo first in the caa after a 90-65 ass-whipping of delaware in newark.

zman said...

Is it just me or is this whole Jon Gruden thing weird? He hasn't coached in about 8 years but the Raiders gave him a 10 year deal and they didn't even pretend to comply with the Rooney rule. Why are they so excited to get Gruden?

Whitney said...

The backstory of Super Bowl 37 makes this more compelling and make explain some of that, Z.

Whitney said...

Stop Wagon My Heart Around

zman said...

Ray's Automatic Wagon

rob said...

rock rootsy-mama like a wagon wheel

zman said...

Wagon Room
I Wagon Be Adored

Mark said...

Sorry to interrupt the wagon pyramid...

Gruden isn’t actually. Good coach. He won with Dungys players and then helped run the franchise into the ground after that. He benefits greatly from the personality he’s cultivated. Oakland is fucked.

And, I’m with Z. Fuck the wagon.

Danimal said...

I go wagon, after midnight.

Dukes on at noon today people. We look forward to your support.

zman said...

I wonder if Sloppy Steve is related to Seasick Steve? Or if he knows Lumpy Steve?

Marls said...

Make explain? Is that like “making fuck”?

Bezerker!

rob said...

i believe that's a violation, marls. you can't go back more than half the comment thread to mock someone's grammar/typing. had you taken a run at mark's finger-whipping from a few comments ago, we'd have allowed it.

rootsminer said...

Rob is wagon his finger at you marls.

TR said...

Watching Rocky w/ my cripple. Language doesn’t age well.

“I’m going on a date w/ Paulie’s sister.”

“I hear she’s retarded.”

“She’s not retarded. She’s shy.”

Shlara said...

This is awesome

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/01/04/sports/basketball/philadelphia-sixers-song.html?emc=edit_th_20180105&nl=todaysheadlines&nlid=59612748

Mark said...

I finished season 3 of Mr. Robot last night. That show is brilliant.

Whitney said...

Trump tweeted that he is a “very stable genius.’

Not that secret of a secret: anyone who says that isn’t either.

Mark said...

I’m wearing a purple Orlando City shirt, Dan. So I guess that counts as support.

rob said...

those are dope. i tried to find one when we were in orlando in november, but failed.

Mark said...

NDSU’s QB is named Easton Stick? That’s an all timer.

Danimal said...

Appreciate ya Mark.

Mark said...

I’m surprised you couldn’t find an Orlando City shirt, Rob. Probably because you were at Disney which is essentially a city unto itself (and actually much closer to Kissimmee). Would’ve thought they were at least selling some at the airport though.

Danimal said...

I’m finding Dry January to be a bigger challenge today than in th 8 hours of airport time I had this week.

Whitney said...

Dukes stumbling early. Plenty of time left, but Dan, get on the horn and give your boys an earful.

rob said...

there's a soccer store in downtown disney, and they had a shitload of barca and real madrid gear, but no purple orlando city joints. it was weird.

Danimal said...

Right you are Whit. They are beating themselves as we are all prone to do. It’s how they clean themselves up at halftime that will be key.

rob said...

danimal talking about beating himself and cleaning himself. the jokes write themselves.

Whitney said...

I think that was his joke.

Danimal said...

Right as rain Whit!

rootsminer said...

I'm listening to dukes and watching uva - unc hoops. This hunter kid for uva just there down a nasty baseline dunk.

rob said...

carry on

Whitney said...

Madison is in position to strike. Need to not F it up again.

Danimal said...

Fucking drops!!!

Whitney said...

JMU receivers can’t catch a damn thing. Terrible.

Danimal said...

Nail biter. Jmu doesn’t deserve to win this, unless of course they do.

Whitney said...

It comes to this!

NDSU D is tough

Danimal said...

And Jmu o-line not seemingly.

Whitney said...

Sorry, Danimal. This could be a bad football weekend in your house if Jax doesn’t come through.

Danimal said...

Stop it.

zman said...

Anyone else spend the past five hours working on a pinewood derby car? Miraculously I still have all my fingers and thumbs.

Shlara said...

March flights from DCA to Charleston are about $125
Just sayin'

rob said...

start searching airbnb, but look for a place where whitney can have his own room. 'cause that dude snores.

Whitney said...

So do you, but only elves can hear it

Marls said...

Sorry Rob. I just couldn’t pass up the Bezerker reference.

rob said...

we'll allow it, timmy

Whitney said...

Umm, that’s “Berserker,” Tim

rob said...

well, we would've allowed it

Mark said...

Two (very different) BBQ legends opened restaurants in Charleston last year so I want to go simply for that. Hanging with you old losers is a nice bonus though.

Marls said...

All of you can go make fuck.

zman said...

With the Mutumbo?

mayhugh said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Whitney said...

Mayhugh’s comment has been removed by his brand new offspring. Which is taking all his time and sanity but is making him happy. That is all.

Mark said...

This just in: Andy Reid is still Andy Reid.

rob said...

floridudes, need recommendations for cool, non-clusterfucky florida destinations for spreak break purposes.

Danimal said...

Non-clusterfucky in Florida over Spring Break?

rob said...

yes, well, that’s why i consulted the experts

TR said...

Robby - Sanibel/Captiva is a no-brainer. Done it 4x w/ the family. Fly to Fort Myers, rent a car and drive 50 minutes. Calm waters, lots of fishing, kayaking, shelling, etc.

Danimal said...

There you go. Anna Mara Island also nice....within an hour of Tampa. Awesome beaches, pretty affordable, not far from some Spring training squads either.

Danimal said...

Maria

rob said...

tr, any recs for specific places to stay in sanibel/captiva?

Mark said...

You can’t go wrong with any of those west coast islands. Also add in Longboat and Siesta Keys. On the east coast/south Florida tip, Delray Beach is highly underrated.

Mark said...

Also, St. Pete is pretty cool if you want to have the beach thing while also being able to hit some museums and other low key attractions. Unlike most people I actually like Tampa (specifically South Tampa) but St. Pete is far better.

TR said...

South Seas Resort in Captiva is very popular w/ families in our town. It's very nice and you can get a golf cart to cruise around the grounds. We haven't stayed there. May be pricey. Tween Waters Inn is another place in Captiva that is a little more budget-friendly. They have kayak/paddle rentals right there, a nice pool, and a beautiful beach 100 yds away, but my wife thought the rooms were dumpy.

We had a bad experience at one place in Sanibel during our second trip there (Casa Ybel). I would not stay there. I think you can probably do homeway or vrbo to find a nice beachfront condo. You'll want a rental car there to day-trip around, hit a supermarket and go to restaurants.

Mark said...

My wife is on the wagon for most of January. Which sucks because now I’m the only person who is drunk on the couch on the weekend nights.

Mark said...

I got low key angry at the beginning of TR’s comment. “Popular w/ families in our town”. These fucking northerners who shit on Florida talk about the best places to hang out in Florida. FOH.

We hate tourists far more than they know.

I like TR though.

TR said...

Mark needs to get on the wagon

zman said...

I'm going to Amelia Island for spring break on Danimal' recommendation. Did I err?

T.J. said...

We were in Amelia Island last February and enjoyed it. Ate several fantastic meals.

TR said...

I have heard some folks rave about Sea Island, GA. It has been described as a high-end Hilton Head. Makes it too nice for my Persian Polack ass, but maybe not too nice for you all. It's south of Savannah and near Jacksonville. Not sure what Spring Break weather will be.

rob said...

i looked at sea island earlier. even with the new tax rates, i still don't make it into that bracket.

Mark said...

My pen makes it far too easy to smoke.

Mark said...

W&M Football getting a lot of love from NBC.

Marls said...

Lots of love.

Unfortunately the photo did not include Klammer.

Whitney said...

Or Jerry.

Mark said...

Rob- my family and I rented an enormous place on Tybee Island for May. Tybee, St. sim is and all those near Savannah islands are a good option.

Mark said...

And Amelia Island is lovely. Don’t fret, Z.

TR said...

Was Roark there, or did he fall off the bleacher, roll around the floor for five minutes, and then get up and jog back onto his spot on the bleacher?

zman said...

Twas more of a joke than a concern. D'mal wouldn't steer me wrong. Unless the Jaguars are involved.

Whitney said...

Still can’t figure out for whom I’m rooting in this Rams Falcons game.

Mark said...

Impressive game by Atlanta.

Mark said...

Impressive throw by Matt Ryan. Nice core strength.

Shlara said...

Rob, I'm already ahead of you on the AirBnB research
Found a place in N Charleston that sleeps 10 and includes access to something called the Mixson Club

Also Giannis Ante-greek name is really, really good

zman said...

"Yeah I'm going to Charleston for a W&M basketball game. No, I'm staying in an air bnb with a woman I met on the internet. No it's not like that. Mark will be there! Wait that doesn't help I met him on the internet. Whitney will be there! Wait that doesn't help. TJ will be there! You like TJ!"

rob said...

dave chappelle is a truth-telling genius. stable, too.

TR said...

Eagles will be getting points at home next week against the Dirty Birds. I would not feel good about this game if I were a Philly fan.

T.J. said...

zwoman knows what’s up

Danimal said...

I forgot about the North Florida recs for Rob. Sorry Rob.
Sea Island resort has been a client for 20 years. It is one the nicest non-winter family and golf destinations in the country and may be the nicest. It is expensive. I would rec to all to give it a try with your spouse if ever conveniently able to for a couple of nights.
Amelia will be near top of list for non-clusterfuckery in our fair state during that time.
The disclaimer I give as I did for Z, the ocean will be pretty nippy in March. Manageable, but serious shrinkage which of course won’t be a problem for you.