Jags vs Bills - Part 3

For all of the reasons Z presents as to why the Bills can win, one might guess there may be as many that would allow someone, in this case me, to support the argument that the Jags should not only win, but win by 9-9.5 points as prescribed by the bookmakers. One might think.

Before heading down that road, it very much surprised me when I saw Jax favored by as many points points when I first saw the line on Tuesday. I read today (Thur) that there was a line as low as 6.5 when it opened up, but most were at 7.5. Regardless, that's a pretty big variance between opening and today's, not uncommon but not normal either. Before checking a spread, like most, I guess beforehand what the number is going to be. Three to 3.5 points was my hunch fwtftw. Both teams are...meh. Decent. One at 10-6 in a weak division and with a weak schedule as has been pointed out, the other 9-7 with nothing too much to shout about either. Neither squad has any significant playoff experience within their roster or coaching staff. We all know of the parity that exists within the league. It is a common occurrence for a cellar dweller to beat a perennial powerhouse. Because of the parity, my NFL wagers are kept to a minimum. Betting is difficult to begin with but in the NFL, it's impossibly unpredictable. You see a spread like this one and think it's nuts. Anything more than 4 would have raised my eyebrow. But NINE? Most would think it's a no-brainer to bet on the Bills.Then you bet on the Bills thinking it's a lay-up and the Jags end up winning by 24. That's what kind of line this is - the "no-brainer boned in the ass line". Or is it?

Speaking of roads, this is a view from the backseat of my Bahamian taxi en route to the airport today...Three Stooges! On Video!

Let's take a look at common opponents - Cinci - Indy - NYJ

Cin 7 at Jax 23
BB 16 at Cin 20
Sure, the home game is worth about 3 points so we'll grant them that. We can agree that Cinci is no bueno though, no? The washed up QB that is Andy Dalton was held to 10 of 18 and 136 in North Florida. Zero Touchdowns. Of course, AJ Green was escorted off the field for committing an assault and battery against Jalen Ramsey but damn. Do they run the option there in Cinci?
(If you were curious, Dalton threw 2 pics, 1 TD and 22-38 for 338 yards in their win against the Bills)

Jax 27 at Indy 0   
Indy 7 at BB 13
Indy 10 at Jax 30
Advantage Jagoffville with an average margin of victory 3+ TD's versus 2 Field Goals.

Jax 20 at  NYJ 23
NYJ 12 at BB 21
BB 21 at NYJ 34
We'll call it a push.

If we take the Jags lesser productive of their two against Indy; and the Bills lesser of theirs against the NYJ, the cumulative scores are Jax 73 - Jax Opponents 40; and Buffalo 50 - Buffalo Opponents 61

Taking the better of the two: Jax 70 - Jax Opponents 30; and Buffalo Opponents 50 - Buffalo 39
Advantage - Jacksonville

Other quick stats provided by our friends at Reference.com
Rankings
Total offense Buff - 29th; 31st in Passing Yards; 27th in Passing TD's; 6th in Rushing Yards; 15th in Rushing TD

Total Defense Jax - 5th; 2nd in Total Yards allowed; 1st in Passing Yards allowed; 21st in Rushing Yards allowed; 6th in Rushing TD's allowed.

But all of these numbers mean diddly. Reason being, it's the Playoffs, game 1. The Bills just won a game to get into the tournament, a game they absolutely had to win to do so and on the road. They won the week prior to that, and 3 of the last 4. They've got the mojo and an uber-efficient QB that makes nary a miscue.

We've got a little bit of the opposite, losing the last 2 and....Bortles. He's not the worst quarterback in the league, but he can be sometimes. Except when it comes to being a stickman. Word is out in Jax - he likes to surf. The bars, that is! One of Blake's friends below...

This game is all about him & McCoy. Is Bortles playing to win or not to lose? He's got an immense amount of pressure on him. He holds our city on his shoulders. Does he feel it? And will McCoy's ankle be strong enough to allow him to take advantage of our weakness that is our running defense? I look forward to seeing the crowd and the energy they bring - it will be a far different environment than the norm and should negate much if not all of that negative mojo the Jags are carrying. Throw in the teal beer & food....watch out!

Assuming a healthy Shady and a turnover ratio that is kept to -1 or better for the Jags (that's right, I'm considering a net -1 for us to be just fine), I like the Jags winning but the Bills covering. Shady rendered useless and that same -1 turnover margin, vaJJ by 9 and then some. Bortles playing like he has in his more recent games will make this a very close contest decided on the last possession.

Jacksonville 16
Buffalo 13

So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 2

While the rest of you are hunkering down for the snowstorm I've been mining the depths of pro-football-reference.com to prove that Jacksonville's defense is overrated. Here's a list of the QBs they played:

- Tom Savage with Deshaun Watson in relief in week 1
- Marcus Mariota (twice)
- Joe Flacco and Ryan Mallett
- Josh McCown
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Jared Goff
- Jacoby Brissett (twice)
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- DeShone Kizer
- Blaine Gabbert
- Russell Wilson
- TJ Yates
- Jimmy Garoppolo

Aside from Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson (all three made the Pro Bowl) this is not a particularly distinguished list. At least six of those guys are bad, McCown is a journeyman/replacement level player, and the jury is still out on Mariota, Watson, Goff, and Garoppolo (although the last three admittedly look pretty good). Dalton and Flacco are probably washed up and past their primes.

In the running game they were ranked 21st in yardage and 26th in yards per carry. Not too impressive.

via GIPHY

They absolutely smothered the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Texans, holding them all under 200 yards of total offense. But those teams were at or towards the bottom of the league in terms of yardage. Yes, they picked off Big Ben five times and made him contemplate retirement in his post-game press conference, but he still threw for over 300 yards.

By contrast, the Bills faced Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers--that's four games against Pro Bowlers. They also played Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, the last two league MVPs, and Alex Smith who led the league in QB rating. That's seven games against good QBs and partially explains their 20th ranking in passing yardage. Impressively, they allowed the second-fewest TD and had the sixth-most INT. They are not intimidated by Blake Bortles.

via GIPHY

Ultimately I think the Jaguars defense makes its money via takeaways--they had 33 this year, second most in the NFL. Their 21 INTs were also second in the league, although it's hard to say how impressive this is given the level of QBs they played. Notably, Buffalo turned the ball over 16 times on offense, the sixth fewest in the league. Tyrod Taylor threw only 4 INT and led the league in INT % at 0.95%. So each team's strengths play into the other's. Van der Waals forces and all that.

I can easily see Bortles throwing three picks while the Bills play a clean game, with Buffalo winning 17-13. I can also see Bortles attempting 15 passes with Leonard Fournette getting 35 carries for 150 yards and the Bills going three-and-out every possession, with Jacksonville winning 13-7. Either way I say take the under (right now it's at 39.5 to 40) and the points (Bills are getting 9).

But in my heart I'm taking the Bills. After all, you gotta have faith.

via GIPHY

And if you're really lucky I'll tell you why the intangibles cut in Buffalo's favor.

So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 1

I think the Bills can win in Jacksonville on Sunday and this post is the first of at least one posts explaining why. I think the Jaguars's offensive stats were over-inflated by a soft schedule, and I think Blake Bortles isn't very good. As a result the Jags could easily get knocked out of the playoffs early.

The Jags were 1-2 against playoff teams this year. Here's how Bortles did in those games:

Those are affirmatively bad stats. He averaged 0.33 TD, 1.67 INT, and 159 yards per game with a 52.4% completion percentage in three games against playoff teams.

The Jags were 4-3 against teams with winning records. Bortles still wasn't very good in those games:

He averaged 1.3 TD, 1.1 INT, and 215 yards with a 58.4% completion percentage in games against teams with winning records. That isn't an impressive QB stat line in 2017.

So why did the Jaguars score the fifth most points this season? Because they played five games against the three worst scoring defenses in the league. Bortles looked absolutely decent in those games:

He threw no picks and completed 66% of his passes, which is great, but he averaged only 1.6 TD and 249 yards in those games.

To put it another way, Bortles lost a passing duel to Blaine Gabbert.

Sure, Buffalo's defense is nothing to brag about and it gave up a league-high 22 TD (I see you Leonard Fournette). But Bortles is so bad that I think the Bills can stack the box against the run without too many concerns.

via GIPHY

If you're lucky I'll explain why Jacksonville's defense is overrated too.