Friday, November 05, 2010

Bills/Bears Paradoxical Preview: van der Waals Forces Meet Port-A-Potty

As you likely remember from chemistry class, the phrase "van der Waals forces" refers to the sum of attractive and repulsive forces between molecules. van der Waals forces are considered weak.



As you likely remember from stadium parking lots and construction sites, a "Port-A-Potty" is a toilet in a plastic enclosure that is easily transported from one place to another. Port-A-Potties are considered movable.



With these key definitions in place, we can now turn to Sunday's Bills/Bears game. This matchup is a perfect storm of ugliness. The Bills are what I thought they would be - clueless on offense, terrible against the run, and sneaky bad against the pass - which is to say, I thought they would be an atrocious team and I was right.

Just like last year, the Bills are miserable against the run. The Bills allow a league-worst 188.7 rushing yards per game, 30 more than second-worst Denver (who gave up 328 yards in one game). The record for most rushing yards allowed in a 16 game season is 3228 by ... wait for it ... the 1978 Bills. The 2010 Bills are 210 yards off the pace to break their own record, but they have plenty of games left to make up the deficit.

The Bills have allowed the third-fewest total passing yards in the league, but this is totally misleading. They are tied with Dallas for fewest passing attempts against on the year; their turnstyle-esque front seven is too tempting to OC's so they run at it all day. Thus the Bills gave up few passing yards simply because no one bother to pass against them. A close look shows that the Bills allowed the third-most passing TD (15), have the highest percentage of passs attempts result in TD (7.8%), and have the fewest INT (1). Only 0.5% of the passes attempted against them resulted in a pick. The second-worst is 1.7%, a 3-fold increase. They have the highest adjusted passing yards per pass attempt in the league. They have a 49.1% DVOA against the pass, which is the worst in the league according to Football Outsiders.

So they they don't just suck against the run.

And like last year, the Bills are a balanced squad with almost equally meager prowess on offense, ranking a mere 27th in passing. The bright spot? They rank 15th in rushing, and thus are in the top half of the league! They are, however, mathematically 20 yards below the league average. Even the bright spots are dingy in Buffalo.

The Bills face the Bears this week in Orchard Park. Chicago has a stout run defense, allowing only 89.3 yards per game, so Fred Jackson and CJ Spiller have their work cut out for them (Spiller actually has no work cut out for him, he only gets 7 offensive touches per game (unlike Ines Sainz now that she avoids locker rooms), but I'll save that for another rant later this season - look Dave, foreshadowing!). Factor in Chicago's middle-of-the-pack passing defense and the Bears should be able to muffle the Buffalo offense.

The fun stuff will happen when Chicago has the ball. Chicago has the #29 overall offense. Buffalo has the #30 overall defense. Perhaps we will find out the answer to an ancient paradox. But in reverse.



Buffalo would make great goats as they give 110%: opponents have a collective 110.0 passer rating against the Bills. But the Bears have a collective 69.6 (sick) rating (thanks mostly to MLFG Todd Collins). Jay Cutler has a decent 84.4 rating, but he's thrown only 7 TD to 7 INT. The Bears have allowed 31 sacks through 7 games, worst in the league and 8 more than the second-worst Skins have allowed through 8 games. Buffalo has 11 sacks on the year, tied for 5th fewest. Chicago also has the 26th ranked rushing offense in terms of yards per game.

I have no idea what will come out of this morass of pigskin and horseshit. The Chicago offense is a force of van der Waalsian proportions. The Buffalo defense is so movable that Hemingway would call it a feast; I'll call it a Port-A-Potty.

I foresee a final score of 35-21 in favor of Chicago, with all three Buffalo TD scored on fumble returns.

98 comments:

Danimal said...

a fine review.
chicago favored by 3 w/an o/u of
40 1/2

mayhugh said...

Based on the 1.25 games I've watched of the Bears and the approximately 6 minutes I've seen of the Bills, I'm picking the Bills in a game that's not close. As Simmons would say Fitzpatrick makes the Bills downright frisky. And Jay Cutler is Jay Cutler.

TR said...

I just did the math and estimated I drink 1.875 gallons of coffee from Monday morning thru Friday afternoon.

Is that a good thing?

Danimal said...

That's a lot of Java. 3x more than me. Dr. Danimal would recommend cutting that in half and switching to water, if you were to ask him that is. That's still a shitload of coffee.

zman said...

Fitzpatrick is indeed frisky (fritzy?), but not frisky enough to overcome Chan Gailey I fear.

zman said...

Water is for pussies. I drink 1.25 gallons of coffee from Monday to Friday.

Danimal said...

trix are for kids

Marls said...

Mike Martz is a retard.



That is all.

zman said...

Speaking of which,

http://sports.espn.go.com/new-york/columns/story?columnist=oconnor_ian&id=5766026

Danimal said...

you guys going to get in on the zenyatta action tomorrow?

Geoff said...

I drink 1.25 gallons of coffee Monday thru Friday. Before having children, I drank less than half that.

Mark said...

Water is for pussies? Well then...meow. I drink a lot of water. Probably 3-4x more than anything else. Don't drink coffee. Never have.

Igor said...

Love that album, Danimal. Too bad Sting is such a douche. They could have tripled their discography.

Mark said...

Now that I'm thinking about it I think my liquid consumption breaks down like this:

Water
Beer
Soda
Milk
Whiskey

That's it. That's the list.

T.J. said...

I drink a minimum of one venti a day from the sbux in the base of our bldg...and it's usually two a day.

I've already consumed 6 to 9 cups of java today...

T.J. said...

zman, those are some excellent labels for the post. can't wait to use the John Vander Wall tag again.

T.J. said...

rob, in that LeBron ad, are those really the fellas from the More Than A Game documentary talking in his ear? I really think it is...

Lumpy said...

TJ careful w/ the chicory down their- it'll turn your teeth brown and tear your stomach up

Igor said...

Did I miss the comments where Teejay told us what bars and restaurants he's been hanging out in New Orleans, or has this been another "hole up and spend the per diem on Spanctravision" trip?

T.J. said...

I've been nowhere assfuck because I'm working. I'll be sure to send you private emails letting you know how awesome your recommendations were and how great you are.

I really need a beer...

T.J. said...

HOWEVAH, tonight I will finally be escaping this convention center area and hitting the Garden District, so maybe I finally will enjoy a night in this shithole of a town.

T.J. said...

Had a few Abita Andy Gators last night, not sure if you beer aficionados have had this one. It was damn good...and packs a nice punch.

Danimal said...

igor, funny enough the album is what the horse is named after...the owner of the horse, Jerry Moss, was the "M" in A&M Records...this has been today's episode of....Now You Know

Danimal said...

the teej - you schlepping from that shithole that is the convention center or a hotel? are people actually buyin what you're sellin?

Whitney said...

Have had the Abita Amber, Turbodog and Purple Haze. Prefer the Amber. Will have to try to Andy Gator.

None of the Abitas would ordinarily rank all that high, but it's from New Orleans, so they seem better.

Stay away from the muffaletta down there, Teej. If you know what I mean.

Danimal said...

no muffaletta too toughaletta
he dive at five, or beerthirty

T.J. said...

Bourbon Street Bush?

zman said...

Get up on it.

http://us.movember.com/?home

TR said...

Whitney!!!

Danimal said...

as i just told geoff on that twitter machine, there's a pretty decent article on ovechkin in gq this month. robert gibbs too.

zman said...

I might have to get Mark a bottle of booze of his choosing. GFK on Twitter is like Christmas every day.

Mark said...

Peace to the Gods, Zman. Peace to the Gods.

zman said...

Make sure your foot game is official. A bitch don't like you to step to her acting like you trying to bag her with your shoes all bent up.

T.J. said...

Zman is on twitter?

zman said...

No. But you can look at tweets using the innertoobs.

T.J. said...

I have escaped the French Quarter. Avenue Pub is a good joint.

rob said...

erdeh time!

rob said...

i got all this 'cause i'm faaast

rob said...

i really like joakim noah's game

Mark said...

Nice to have you in the club, Rob.

Danimal said...

Just learned at a neighborhood shindig that Dwight Howard's newborn lives around the corner. A secret up until a week or so ago. He apparently is here often. We will become pals for sure. Will have him on gtb shortly.

Mark said...

Nice. You'll be able to teach Dwight some post moves.

T.J. said...

Ah yes, Joakim Noah, the star of my fantasy team last year...good times.

Mark said...

Buzz is up early and raging with the tweets this morning.

rob said...

the teej's bolton wanderers looking top notch

T.J. said...

Whit, should I grab you some vinyl from Peaches Records?

T.J. said...

Add Stanley cafe, a block from Cafe du Monde, to the list of good NOLA stops for breakfast.

TR said...

I watched the first half of Michael Bolton-Spurs. Score was 1-0 at the half. Clearly I missed nothing.

TR said...

It will be funny when TCU beats Utah and still gets shut out of the BCS by a one-loss Bama team.

Mark said...

Teej, don't know if you heard but Lil Waynecis out of jail and back in NOLA. Holla at him, I'm sure he'll show you a good time.

Squeaky said...

Son is asleep. Watching UofM verse Illinois basketball game.31-31 at the half. These teams need a little defense.

Mark said...

Had to work an event this morning. So, I walk in the house, turn on TV and Gators immediately block a punt and return it for a TD. Up 41-0. I should miss the 1st half more often.

Danimal said...

huge pot of all-world chili on the stove...extremely cold brewdawg...cold day down here in fla. have ingredients for 2nd go-around w/bourbon milk punch...keep ya posted. have gained 9 lbs in 60 days.

Mark said...

It is indeed a bit chilly down here today. All the more reason to drink some whiskey.

And, you heard it here first, Shariff Floyd is a monster and will be an All-American DT in two years. The best of a very, very talented group of freshman defensive players at Florida.

Shlara said...

Danimal--is your neighbor the chick from Basketball Wives?

Marls said...

For those who care, Tribe wins. Playoffs here we come.

mayhugh said...

Roll Tribe. And thank you Michigan and Illinois. That was a lot of fun.

Danimal said...

shlara - i don't think so and i'm pretty sure she's not married. she has another boy, at least 12. this has been pretty hush hush down here...she keeps a very low profile minus the porsche and jag in a neighborhood of toyotas and nissans.

mayhugh said...

It's early, but LSU is a lot more excited to play football today than Bama.

Mark said...

Of course they're excited Mayhugh, Jerry's in the house.

FSU and Carolina are trading punches nicely early on, which is nice since Utah shit the bed and lost TV2 status a while ago.

Danimal said...

bourbon 'n milk cocktail - review #2 - better w/the whole milk...also mixed in a shaker this time...still not there though. honey needs to be nuked prior. half'n half may be the way to go. or, just forget about all of this and get a half gallon and egg nog and mix w/bourbon.

T.J. said...

Igor, dinner at Bistro Daisy in an hour...followed by Cooter Brown's.

This city ain't so bad after all (you ain't so bad, you ain't so bad).

T.J. said...

And the Wow Cafe and Wingery is helping us start the day...waitresses in tight ref outfits. It's bayou Hooters.

mayhugh said...

Is there any doubt Les Miles is going to go for this? Why burn the 2nd timeout?

mayhugh said...

Ok, that was a great 4th and 1 call.

Danimal said...

i want a tiger blazer like that dude had on...rewind it...he's in the student section...very groovy

a 3rd, final, and quick review of the bourbon milk COCKtail - i recommend it -it's an egg nog lite...nuke the honey prior, MEASURE the pours...it's a "mood" drink but if in the mood, i give it 3 french hens out of 4

touchdown tigers!

Danimal said...

if you didn't see the zenyatta race, you need to.

Mark said...

Looks like Jerry picked a he'll of a night to be in Baton Rouge. And TJ should be in for a greater than usual evening in NOLA. Color me jealous.

Mark said...

Oh, and FSU lost on a FG that went wide right? Awesome, just awesome.

Danimal said...

3 nights now in nola...glad i'm not the teej's liver

Lumpy said...

Inspired by danimals enthusiam for milk punch I tried one. Wish I had read the nuke the honey comment first. Aside from that- Had all the ingredients but nothing to measure the bourbon to milk ratio.

Decided to use a baby bottle. Worked like a charm

Pretty sure I'm getting father of the year

Lumpy said...

Mrs lumpy decided to make another round. This time nuking the honey.

Huge difference she's fishin danimal!

Cocks game is a disappointment

T.J. said...

Jer didn't go this weekend...we might go to Ole Miss/LSU.

Mark said...

Bad move by Jeremetrius. Baton Rouge would've been epic tonight. I'm sure NOLA isn't disappointing though.

T.J. said...

Absinthe as a post-dinner drink...at Cooter's now...22 oz Andy Gator in hand.

T.J. said...

Soooo, the fightin' spurriers aint so fightin', eh?

rob said...

it appears that i'm very glad to have a full day of fathering activities followed by dinner at my friend's restaurant. only saw about 5 minutes of the bama loss. tcu/oregon, anyone?

T.J. said...

Kansas was down 45-17 and won? Didn't those dudes have the worst loss of the year in week 1 or 2? Wtf (as the kids and danimal say)?

rob said...

navy scored 76? kansas state is beating texas by 39? the hell is happening out there?

T.J. said...

Igor, just got all the American icons on the wall right at Cooter Brown's...trying to steal the Mickey Mantle on the way out.

Lumpy said...

Tj the ariz stanford game is boring. How bout some live bloggin from a craps table at harrahs?

T.J. said...

I think it would be funny if a NASCAR driver lost tomorrow and got euthanized.

rob said...

teej, get the nola philly to go. you can thank me later.

rob said...

sorry, denny, we're gonna have to put you down

rob said...

igor, dumb n' dumber on tbs. again.

T.J. said...

The code please, Mr. Tikagi.

The code.

Lumpy said...

Old people while slow and dangerous behind the wheel can still serve a purpose

rob said...

robbie russell, stalwart for real salt lake

T.J. said...

A-Ha, Take on Me...one of the best videos of all time...

And now I've lost all your interest...

mayhugh said...

The best thing about the time change? Definitely has to be waking up early enough to watch Johnny 5 become New York's first robotic citizen.

Danimal said...

the feeling of changing someone's life for the better....well, that's why i do what i do. godspeed lumpy.

T.J. said...

#5 Alive! No disassemble!

Marls said...

Marathon sunday here in NYC. One of the more underrated drinking days in America. I think i may start the day with the aforementioned bourbon milk.

T.J. said...

TJ's head hurts some...

Marls said...

Who holds back the electric car?
Who makes Steve Gutenberg a star?
We do! We do!

T.J. said...

Simpsons stonecutters ref?

Marls said...

Made sense until I realized Mayhugh was watching short circuit 2 which Gutenberg apparently turned down.

T.J. said...

Marls and Mayhugh, new post up...