Friday, September 26, 2014

Week 5- Time to Get Right

I've got a question for the assembled masses (few?). Should I start going by Kid 1&2 or Mr. 33%? One of those should work as that's been my output in this space every weekend of the College Football season thus far. You could call this regression to the mean but I'd argue that this is far worse. It's a combination of terrible prognostication and a little bit of bad luck. The theme, either way you spin it, is that I've been terrible this season. That's okay though. I'm just listening to this on a loop while I make these picks.



Baylor (-21) at Iowa State- Baylor is this year's version of Oregon for me. I'm going to take them to cover until the prove me wrong. They're an offensive machine. Art Briles has an offense that many, many QBs can put up absurd numbers in. When he has a QB as talented as Bryce Petty it's hardly even fair. Iowa State is a solid team and they play well at home. I expect the Cyclones to keep it close in the first half before the  Baylor offensive onslaught ultimately proves to be too much to withstand. Baylor.

Duke ( +7) at Miami- Duke is good. Really good. They've blown out every team they've faced so far this season and were they not Duke they'd be favored here. But they are Duke and the general public can't get wrap their mind around Duke being a formidable football program. For shit's sake, they were only favored by 13 over Kansas AT HOME earlier this season. KANSAS!! This is all about perception. The public still thinks of Miami as a power program (they haven't been since Larry Coker was running the program into the ground) and of Duke as a school near the point of giving up on football altogether. Miami's at home but they have little to no home field advantage. Take Duke to win outright.

Colorado State (+9.5) at Boston College- Boston College's win over USC earlier this season ranks as the biggest upset of the College Football year thus far. It's also skewed the perception of the Fighting Addazzios. BC can run the ball as well as anyone (Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy is in the top 10 nationally in rushing) but they struggle mightily in the pass game. They barely even try to throw the ball much of the time. Last week, BC struggled through the first 3 quarters with a Maine team that has lost to Bryant (your guess is as good as mine) this season. Colorado State is a program on the rise under former Alabama Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain and they boast a stable of talented tailbacks playing behind an experienced offensive line. If you like passing you probably won't enjoy this matchup. If you like money, take the Rams and the points.

Hopefully no one out there in GTB land is taking our picks and trying to convert them into money. If so, you’re in the hole. Danimal is sitting at .500 and Mark at 4-8. Gambling is all about patience. The longer you stick with it and the more you bet, it’s bound to turn around for you. So take this week’s picks and double down. Just don’t tell your wife.

Northwestern +11 at Penn State
If someone told you a month ago that Penn State has a legitimate chance of winning the Big Ten, you’d think they were a bit squirrely. ‘Tis true though. They have a pretty good shot at it. Granted, the Big 10 is the new ECAC. Sure they’ve got Michigan State left on the schedule, but no one else considering what Michigan and Ohio State have become. With an extremely tough running D (6th in the country) against a bad to very bad running offense (106th), I have to say I was bit perplexed with the line. But whatever. Look for PSU’s QB Christian Hackenberger to break all sorts of hand-off records today to win by more than 11, 38-14.
Lions

Colorado State +9.5 at Boston College
Don’t look now but TYLER MURPHY! And the Iggles from BC are 3-1. I say it’s all smoke and mirrors. And word has it that former Saban/Bama OC Jim McElwain, head ball coach of the Rams from Colorado State, has a good program in the makings. They’ve got enough weapons on the offense (they throw it a lot) to keep this close and quite possibly pull out a win. But who the fuck really knows? I don’t. Come on Rams. Let’s cover that spread.
Rammers

Arkansas +9.5 vs Texas A&M (in Dallas)
The hogs lost to Auburn in their first game of the season – props to both AD’s (A-Dees Nuts) for that move by the way. Ballsy.  Winning the next 3 against no one special and putting up about 50-somethin a game. At 4-0, A&M hasn’t been tested and that includes the South Carolina contest. This is likely our game of the day on Saturday, or so I hope. The key for Arkansas will be ball control/time of possession. They have two beastly backs who average about 8 yards per carry and 100’ish per game. That’s right, 2! Their D which is quite good, will obviously need to stop them a few times too which hasn’t been easy for other squads. But they'll do it.
Soooo-eyyyyy!!!! HOGS!

39 comments:

Danimal said...

Justin Rose is the new Ian Poulter the differences being wins golf tournaments and is likeable. 12 under in 16 holes....21 birdies between them. Out of this world.

mr kq said...

Electrifying display. But our rookies get us to down 1! Need at least a half in last 4ball match.

mayhugh said...

Have not seen a minute of them play, but I guess Reed and Speith are playing out of their tits?

Danimal said...

Reed and spieth won 4&3 as did furyk and mahan. Fowler and JW were about to go up 2 just 10 seconds ago befoure Poulter (literally after nbc did a quick profile on him) chipped one in from behind a bunker. Fowler lining up putt to halve the hole. He makes it.

Danimal said...

That chip in really hurt....the euros cheeringhad been limited to one match...they are engaged now = Poulter histrionics will = more made putts.
We cannot afford less than a half here.

Danimal said...

Correction....Reed and Spieth won 5 & 3. I don't have an issue w watson sitting those guys yesterday. They are playing again this afternoon...helpful to have a half day off in this thing. Now if they had gotten their ass kicked today I would say otherwise.

Danimal said...

Keegan and phil sitting all day. That is interesting. Aren't they undefeated?

Marls said...

Oh Ricky....

Danimal said...

Oh Ricky, again. And Jimmy. Our boys are leaking oil.

mr kq said...

You can see the pressure on their faces. I'd soil myself.

Danimal said...

Nice one Ricky! Short-term redemption.

mr kq said...

Oh Ricky you're so fine.

rob said...

furyk and mahan know this match counts, right?

rob said...

ryan clark talked shit about the tribe in the wapo today. not cool.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/redskins/for-the-washington-redskins-a-rude-awakening/2014/09/26/02ea7dce-45a5-11e4-b437-1a7368204804_story.html

TR said...

To anybody w/ kids in kindergarten or younger, do not by any means encourage cub scouts. My first grader just got into it and it sucks mega-balls. A 7-830 pm event Thursday night, followed by another one last night. We sat around a campfire in the mulch pit recycling area in our town (Zman knows the place) and watched nerdy aspiring eagle scouts do skits and lead us in song. The worst part is the parents who are REALLY into it. It's the worst.

And I didn't see any parents surreptitiously imbibing from flasks.

TR said...

To anybody w/ kids in kindergarten or younger, do not by any means encourage cub scouts. My first grader just got into it and it sucks mega-balls. A 7-830 pm event Thursday night, followed by another one last night. We sat around a campfire in the mulch pit recycling area in our town (Zman knows the place) and watched nerdy aspiring eagle scouts do skits and lead us in song. The worst part is the parents who are REALLY into it. It's the worst.

And I didn't see any parents surreptitiously imbibing from flasks.

TR said...

That's how bad it is. It merits two comments.

zman said...

I always hope to see mulchface at the mulch pit but I never do.

The scouts would be cooler if they could tone down the paramilitary and religious aspects. Community service is obviously worthwhile. Singing and marching in uniform isn't, particularly when you're seven.

Mark said...

I suspect my Dad felt the same way about Cub Scouts. It was the only activity he allowed me to quit midstream. I always had to stick out my commitment until years end with things. When I said I wanted to quit Cub Scouts? Sure thing buddy!

Danimal said...

I second what he tr said. We went to two pow wows this month and I gotta tell ya, I was dreading it as was my wife. Our boy was only kinda committed, plus his fall baseball practices take place on the same night as cun scouts. We gave him the choice....he chose baseball. Otherwise we'd be selling popcorn at the grocery store today, as in he and his mom. But still.
Fuck. That.

Whitney said...

Girl Scout cookies >>>>>>>>>> Boy Scout popcorn

Marls said...

Ahhhh, the cun scouts. Hacking through through the bush on a journey of exploration.

TR said...

How bout you take it down a notch, Marls? It ain't even 1 o'clock yet?

TR said...

Rooney's red card earlier today is some classic old school Rooney, as in "if I'm in a foul mood, I may just violently kick you from behind while the ball is eight feet away."

Mark said...

Georgia's defense is awful. Like Jeff Driskel level awful.

mr kq said...

A mate of mine in England is feeling quite confident, apparently, based on the note he sent in a group thread:

"If USA come back and win from here I will drive two fingers up my arse to the knuckle."


Mark said...

I haven't checked Gator twitter because I'm drinking at a bar but I'm fairly sure everyone is as sad that we lost Jacoby Brissett as I am.

rob said...

michigan's getting (big) housed by minnesota in ann arbor. brady hoke's gonna get a lot of free time to polish up that chris farley impression, and soon.

Mark said...

NC State has a tailback named Shadrach. I think we all approve of that.

rob said...

i have a great deal of disdain for florida state

zman said...

I wish I named Kemba Shadrach instead.

Mark said...

Florida State will keep winning all year because the ACC is trash but they're a good bet not to cover most games at this point. Classic championship hangover season.

And I hate them so much.

Donna said...

Shadrach, Meshach, Abendigo - best biblical names of all!! Always ask extra credit question on OT Exam with those as answer! Sorry--my bible nerd self felt the need to share. I HATE FSU too and especially their jackass QB!!

rob said...

i, for one, appreciate the juxtaposition of biblical scholarship and fsu hate. the good lord himself really doesn't much like the 'noles.

rob said...

tribe scored a 51-yard touchdown with 30 seconds left to tie stony brook, won it in overtime. still alive for the college football tournament.

rob said...

our boys had a pretty good week. at least 4-2, with mark having a chance to go 3-0. glad i bet my paycheck.

rob said...

mr kq - took the team to the public house this evening. food is killer, beer list is really good, too. wookey jack, arrogant bastard, green flash on tap and a whole lot of stuff for non-hopheads, too. place was packed, service was good. hope they keep up the early momentum.

mr kq said...

Hi Rob. Thinking wings and a Green Flash tmro with my youngest. Will let u know.

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