Week 5- Time to Get Right

I've got a question for the assembled masses (few?). Should I start going by Kid 1&2 or Mr. 33%? One of those should work as that's been my output in this space every weekend of the College Football season thus far. You could call this regression to the mean but I'd argue that this is far worse. It's a combination of terrible prognostication and a little bit of bad luck. The theme, either way you spin it, is that I've been terrible this season. That's okay though. I'm just listening to this on a loop while I make these picks.



Baylor (-21) at Iowa State- Baylor is this year's version of Oregon for me. I'm going to take them to cover until the prove me wrong. They're an offensive machine. Art Briles has an offense that many, many QBs can put up absurd numbers in. When he has a QB as talented as Bryce Petty it's hardly even fair. Iowa State is a solid team and they play well at home. I expect the Cyclones to keep it close in the first half before the  Baylor offensive onslaught ultimately proves to be too much to withstand. Baylor.

Duke ( +7) at Miami- Duke is good. Really good. They've blown out every team they've faced so far this season and were they not Duke they'd be favored here. But they are Duke and the general public can't get wrap their mind around Duke being a formidable football program. For shit's sake, they were only favored by 13 over Kansas AT HOME earlier this season. KANSAS!! This is all about perception. The public still thinks of Miami as a power program (they haven't been since Larry Coker was running the program into the ground) and of Duke as a school near the point of giving up on football altogether. Miami's at home but they have little to no home field advantage. Take Duke to win outright.

Colorado State (+9.5) at Boston College- Boston College's win over USC earlier this season ranks as the biggest upset of the College Football year thus far. It's also skewed the perception of the Fighting Addazzios. BC can run the ball as well as anyone (Florida transfer QB Tyler Murphy is in the top 10 nationally in rushing) but they struggle mightily in the pass game. They barely even try to throw the ball much of the time. Last week, BC struggled through the first 3 quarters with a Maine team that has lost to Bryant (your guess is as good as mine) this season. Colorado State is a program on the rise under former Alabama Offensive Coordinator Jim McElwain and they boast a stable of talented tailbacks playing behind an experienced offensive line. If you like passing you probably won't enjoy this matchup. If you like money, take the Rams and the points.

Hopefully no one out there in GTB land is taking our picks and trying to convert them into money. If so, you’re in the hole. Danimal is sitting at .500 and Mark at 4-8. Gambling is all about patience. The longer you stick with it and the more you bet, it’s bound to turn around for you. So take this week’s picks and double down. Just don’t tell your wife.

Northwestern +11 at Penn State
If someone told you a month ago that Penn State has a legitimate chance of winning the Big Ten, you’d think they were a bit squirrely. ‘Tis true though. They have a pretty good shot at it. Granted, the Big 10 is the new ECAC. Sure they’ve got Michigan State left on the schedule, but no one else considering what Michigan and Ohio State have become. With an extremely tough running D (6^th in the country) against a bad to very bad running offense (106^th), I have to say I was bit perplexed with the line. But whatever. Look for PSU’s QB Christian Hackenberger to break all sorts of hand-off records today to win by more than 11, 38-14.
Lions

Colorado State +9.5 at Boston College
Don’t look now but TYLER MURPHY! And the Iggles from BC are 3-1. I say it’s all smoke and mirrors. And word has it that former Saban/Bama OC Jim McElwain, head ball coach of the Rams from Colorado State, has a good program in the makings. They’ve got enough weapons on the offense (they throw it a lot) to keep this close and quite possibly pull out a win. But who the fuck really knows? I don’t. Come on Rams. Let’s cover that spread.
Rammers

Arkansas +9.5 vs Texas A&M (in Dallas)
The hogs lost to Auburn in their first game of the season – props to both AD’s (A-Dees Nuts) for that move by the way. Ballsy.  Winning the next 3 against no one special and putting up about 50-somethin a game. At 4-0, A&M hasn’t been tested and that includes the South Carolina contest. This is likely our game of the day on Saturday, or so I hope. The key for Arkansas will be ball control/time of possession. They have two beastly backs who average about 8 yards per carry and 100’ish per game. That’s right, 2! Their D which is quite good, will obviously need to stop them a few times too which hasn’t been easy for other squads. But they'll do it.
Soooo-eyyyyy!!!! HOGS!