Wednesday, January 03, 2018

So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 1

I think the Bills can win in Jacksonville on Sunday and this post is the first of at least one posts explaining why. I think the Jaguars's offensive stats were over-inflated by a soft schedule, and I think Blake Bortles isn't very good. As a result the Jags could easily get knocked out of the playoffs early.

The Jags were 1-2 against playoff teams this year. Here's how Bortles did in those games:


Those are affirmatively bad stats. He averaged 0.33 TD, 1.67 INT, and 159 yards per game with a 52.4% completion percentage in three games against playoff teams.

The Jags were 4-3 against teams with winning records. Bortles still wasn't very good in those games:


He averaged 1.3 TD, 1.1 INT, and 215 yards with a 58.4% completion percentage in games against teams with winning records. That isn't an impressive QB stat line in 2017.

So why did the Jaguars score the fifth most points this season? Because they played five games against the three worst scoring defenses in the league. Bortles looked absolutely decent in those games:


He threw no picks and completed 66% of his passes, which is great, but he averaged only 1.6 TD and 249 yards in those games.

To put it another way, Bortles lost a passing duel to Blaine Gabbert.

Sure, Buffalo's defense is nothing to brag about and it gave up a league-high 22 TD (I see you Leonard Fournette). But Bortles is so bad that I think the Bills can stack the box against the run without too many concerns.

via GIPHY


If you're lucky I'll explain why Jacksonville's defense is overrated too.

21 comments:

Marls said...

I am extremely excited about watching this game. Mainly because my in laws are coming into town this weekend and it will give me an excuse to avoid them.

zman said...

Before my in-laws moved closer to us they would come for 6 to 9 hour visits. I used to get so much more yard work done back then.

It's great to see the GOP's young guard taking the baton from their elder statesmen--eighty-three-year-old Orrin Hatch will not run again, opening the door for seventy-year-old Mitt Romney to become a Senator. At what point will "running the 2002 Olympics" stop being one of his leading credentials? He ran Massachusetts for four years and implemented Romneycare for god's sake. Oh wait, those aren't credentials as far as Republicans are concerned.

Mark said...

Lovely day here in Florida. Torrential rain and 49 degrees with temps expected to drop as the day continues.

rob said...

i worry for shlara. her irrational exuberance for this year's wrens can only lead to heartbreak.

that said, our boys are now #1 in the nation in 3-point fg%, effective fg%, and true shooting percentage, #2 in the nation in free throw %, and #3 in the nation in overall fg%. connor burchfield and matt milon are #1/2 in the nation in true shooting % and both in the top 10 in 3-point fg%. nathan knight is #16 in player efficiency rating. there's enough sample size to state fairly confidently that we're one of the top offensive teams in the country.

and our next three games are extremely winnable contests against conference minnows, so there's reason to hope/expect us to be 5-0 in the league.

i wonder how we're going to fuck it up.

Whitney said...

Don't wonder at all. We will have cold nights shooting to match the mid-Atlantic weather and that will be that.

Squeaky said...

I'd kill for rain and 49 right now. It's been 8 straight days under 15 degrees and some of those were below 0. It's finally going to get above 20 today but we are slated for a foot of snow tomorrow then back into single digits for two days. Yeah, winter.

It's so cold, we are running a space heater, during the day, in the garage so pipes don't freeze.

EbirT Og.

zman said...

My pipes are warm and of a bigger diameter than yours, and thus they work! Fluid flows through them freely whenever I want!

Mark said...

I’m sure that you’d love temperatures in the 40s, Squeak. But I live in south central Florida. It’s not supposed to be this cold during the day. And honestly, I can deal wit the cold. It’s the 30-40 mph winds and rain that’s getting to me.

Squeaky said...

Zman, you wait. As you get older your pipes will shrivel up too. So enjoy you fluidity and diameter while you can.

I don't mind the cold to a point but -10 back to back is no fun.

Mark, stay dry as much as you can.

Whitney said...

Dealin wit da cold in South Central. Word.
My folks are bitching in Sarasota. Not what they are used to, either.

Meanwhile, Norfolk is slated to be a recipient of this "bomb cyclone" weather event. Sounds super fun.

rootsminer said...

I'm pumped for the Bilguars matchup now too.

And wondering if that procedure the urologist did back in June affected my kitchen - had a pipe freeze yesterday morning that usually doesn't.

zman said...

I saw Mrs. TR in the drop-off line at school today with Little TR in the urethra wheelchair. I've seen her look happier.

Whitney said...

Everyone's waiting for the Bill-Jag-off!

Mark said...

It snowed in Tallahassee today. You northern folks are fucked.

Dave said...

go bills! also, go no school tomorrow! it's going to be tough to keep on with my "less drinking" new year's resolution . . . obviously, the universe wants me to have a couple of beers.

Whitney said...

Listen to the universe, Dave. If you don’t, there could be repercussions.

Whitney said...

Where I work almost never closes because we need to be a resource for the people with disabilities and their families. Closed tomorrow. This could be a big’un.

Squeaky said...

Our town schools hardly ever closes for snow. And they just cancelled school an hour ago. The 12-16" range is slowly creeping closer and closer to our part of Mass.

Squeaky said...

My brother who lives in Charleston, SC sent me a picture showing all the major highways and local bridges closed. Got to be fun down there without enough plows to move the snow.

Mark said...

Charleston’s got to be a shitshow from the pictures I saw. I came to the same conclusion as Dave. It’s not snowing and work is canceled tomorrow but it’s the coldest night here in 4 years so I figure I’m supposed to have a Bourbon.

Unrelated: Jayson Tatum is ridiculously skilled for a player his size and age.

Whitney said...

I’ve been quite good about my intake of bad food and drink since October. Tonight we break from pattern.