A Bills Draft Preview and Review, Alternatively Titled "A Confederacy of Dunces"

The NFL draft kicks off tonight and despite my well-documented lack of college football knowledge I, perhaps predictably, present a few thoughts on what the Bills will do. Note that I'm the same idiot who joked that they would take AJ Green but wanted them to take Nick Fairley.

I had an email exchange with Teedge and Work Jerry that went like this:

Teedge: Buddy nix gonna f**k this up
Work Jerry: yup
zman: Was that ever a question?
Teedge: nope

We all reached this conclusion based on the following data, i.e., Buddy Nix's picks since he joined the Bills in 2009:

								Misc				Rushing			Receiving
Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk
2012	1	10	Stephon Gilmore	CB	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	1	4							1
2012	2	41	Cordy Glenn	T	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	1	6
2012	3	69	T.J. Graham	WR	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	1	3	1	5	0	31	322	1
2012	4	105	Nigel Bradham	OLB	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	1	5
2012	4	124	Ron Brooks	CB	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	0	1
2012	5	144	Zebrie Sanders	T	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	0	0
2012	5	147	Tank Carder	ILB	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	0	1
2012	6	178	Mark Asper	G	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	0	0
2012	7	251	John Potter	K	BUF	2012	2012	0	0	0	0
2011	1	3	Marcell Dareus	DT	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	2	14								11.0
2011	2	34	Aaron Williams	DB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	1	5							1
2011	3	68	Kelvin Sheppard	LB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	2	10								2.0
2011	4	100	Da'Norris Searcy	DB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	3							1
2011	4	122	Chris Hairston	OL	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	8
2011	5	133	Johnny White	RB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	0	20	72	0	1	-3	0
2011	6	169	Chris White	LB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	1
2011	7	206	Justin Rogers	DB	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	2							2
2011	7	245	Michael Jasper	DT	BUF	2011	2011	0	0	0	0
2010	1	9	C.J. Spiller	RB	BUF	2010	2012	0	0	1	21	388	2088	10	106	885	5
2010	2	41	Torell Troup	DT	BUF	2010	2012	0	0	0	2
2010	3	72	Alex Carrington	DE	BUF	2010	2012	0	0	0	5								4.0
2010	4	107	Marcus Easley	WR	BUF	2011	2012	0	0	0	0
2010	5	140	Ed Wang	T	BUF	2010	2010	0	0	0	0
2010	6	178	Arthur Moats	LB	BUF	2010	2012	0	0	0	5								5.0
2010	6	192	Danny Batten	DE	BUF	2011	2011	0	0	0	2								0.5
2010	7	209	Levi Brown	QB	BUF	2010	2010	0	0	0	0
2010	7	216	Kyle Calloway	T	BUF			0	0	0
2009	1	11	Aaron Maybin	DE	BUF	2009	2012	0	0	0	6								6.0
2009	1	28	Eric Wood	C	BUF	2009	2012	0	0	4	17
2009	2	42	Jairus Byrd	DB	BUF	2009	2012	0	1	4	29							18	2.0
								Misc				Rushing			Receiving
Year	Rnd	Pick	Player	Pos	Tm	From	To	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk
2009	2	51	Andy Levitre	G	BUF	2009	2012	0	0	4	24
2009	4	121	Shawn Nelson	TE	BUF	2009	2010	0	0	1	3				20	181	1
2009	5	147	Nic Harris	LB	BUF	2010	2010	0	0	0	3								1.5
2009	6	183	Cary Harris	DB	BUF	2009	2010	0	0	0	1							2
2009	7	220	Ellis Lankster	DB	BUF	2009	2012	0	0	0	4							2	1.0

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

This bountiful harvest yielded only one Pro Bowl pick and only six players with a career AV in double digits. More importantly, only 5 out of these 37 players have been starters for more than one season, and 20 of them (54%!!) have started fewer than 5 games. This is remarkable given the fact that the Bills have been bad to quite bad over this span so it shouldn't be too hard to replace the incumbent starters. Instead they continue to misfire in the draft (and free agency, but that's another post) and start the same old dreck.

Even when Buddy hits the mark he manages to screw it up long-term. For instance, Andy Levitre was a nice find in the second round and helped solidify a shaky offensive line. Nix let him go in free agency. CJ Spiller is a great player but the Bills already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch so they didn't need a running back. The Bills took Lynch with the 12th pick in 2007. When Nix drafted Spiller, Lynch was 24 years old and had two 1000 yard seasons and a Pro Bowl trip under his belt. Nix traded Lynch to Seattle after 4 weeks of the 2010 season and got back picks in the 4th and 5th rounds. Those picks became Chris Hairston (part-time starter at LT and RT) and Tank Carder (awesomely named LB who never made the Bills' roster), respectively.

Lynch has, of course, gone on to be one of league's the three best running backs over the past two seasons. Seriously, look:

		Games		Rushing					Receiving					Total Yds
Player	Tm	G	GS	Att	Yds	Y/A	TD	Y/G	Rec	Yds	Y/R	TD	Y/G	TotOff	YScm	APYd	RtY
Adrian Peterson	MIN	28	28	556	3067	5.52	24	109.5	58	356	6.14	2	12.7	3067	3423	3423	0
Marshawn Lynch	SEA	31	29	600	2794	4.66	23	90.1	51	408	8.00	2	13.2	2794	3202	3202	0
Arian Foster	HTX	29	28	629	2648	4.21	25	91.3	93	834	8.97	4	28.8	2648	3482	3482	0
Ray Rice	RAV	32	32	548	2507	4.57	21	78.3	137	1182	8.63	4	36.9	2508	3689	3689	0
Frank Gore	SFO	32	31	540	2425	4.49	16	75.8	45	348	7.73	1	10.9	2425	2773	2773	0
Chris Johnson	OTI	32	31	538	2290	4.26	10	71.6	93	650	6.99	0	20.3	2290	2940	2940	0
Steven Jackson	RAM	31	30	517	2187	4.23	9	70.5	80	654	8.18	1	21.1	2187	2841	2841	0
LeSean McCoy	PHI	27	27	473	2149	4.54	19	79.6	102	688	6.75	6	25.5	2149	2837	2837	0
Michael Turner	ATL	32	30	523	2140	4.09	21	66.9	36	296	8.22	1	9.3	2140	2436	2436	0
Shonn Greene	NYJ	32	28	529	2117	4.00	14	66.2	49	362	7.39	0	11.3	2117	2479	2479	0
Matt Forte	CHI	27	27	451	2091	4.64	8	77.4	96	830	8.65	2	30.7	2091	2921	2921	0
Reggie Bush	MIA	31	31	443	2072	4.68	12	66.8	78	588	7.54	3	19.0	2072	2660	2712	52
Maurice Jones-Drew	JAX	22	21	429	2020	4.71	9	91.8	57	460	8.07	4	20.9	2020	2480	2484	4

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

Second most rushing yards, third most rushing TD, fourth most all-purpose yards, and more receiving yards than AP! Maybe this explosion of productivity is due entirely to Seattle's system or supporting cast. Maybe the trade served as a kick in the ass to Lynch when he realized his value was only two mid-to-late draft picks. No matter how you rationalize this, it's really tough to watch your team draft a RB #12, suck for three years, then draft another RB at #9 and give up on the other highly drafted RB in return for very little so that the abandoned RB can go on and tear up the league.

Even the Marcell Dareus pick is starting to look a little suspect. Dareus is a nice player for sure, but take a look at who they passed on when they took him:

				Misc				Games		Passing						Rushing			Receiving
Pick	Player	Pos	Tm	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
1	Cam Newton	QB	CAR	0	0	2	33	32	32	13-19-0	590	1002	7920	40	29	253	1447	22	1	33	0			Auburn
2	Von Miller	LB	DEN	0	1	2	28	31	31													1	30.0	Texas A&M
3	Marcell Dareus	DT	BUF	0	0	2	14	32	31														11.0	Alabama
4	A.J. Green	WR	CIN	0	1	2	22	31	31							9	91	0	162	2407	18			Georgia
5	Patrick Peterson	CB	ARI	1	1	2	33	32	32							3	13	0	4	10	0	9	1.0	LSU
6	Julio Jones	WR	ATL	0	0	2	22	29	27							12	86	0	133	2157	18			Alabama
7	Aldon Smith	DE	SFO	0	0	1	18	32	16													1	33.5	Missouri
8	Jake Locker	QB	TEN	0	0	1	8	16	11	4-7-0	211	380	2718	14	11	49	347	2						Washington
9	Tyron Smith	T	DAL	0	0	2	16	31	31															USC
10	Blaine Gabbert	QB	JAX	0	0	2	7	25	24	5-19-0	372	691	3876	21	17	66	154	0						Missouri
11	J.J. Watt	DE	HOU	0	0	2	30	32	31														26.0	Wisconsin
12	Christian Ponder	QB	MIN	0	0	2	16	27	26	12-14-0	458	774	4788	31	25	88	472	2	1	-15	0			Florida St.
13	Nick Fairley	DT	DET	0	0	0	6	23	7														6.5	Auburn
14	Robert Quinn	DE	STL	0	0	1	9	31	15														15.5	North Carolina
15	Mike Pouncey	OL	MIA	0	0	2	12	32	32															Central Florida
16	Ryan Kerrigan	DE	WAS	0	0	2	14	32	32													2	16.0	Purdue
17	Nate Solder	OL	NWE	0	0	2	20	32	29															Colorado
18	Corey Liuget	DT	SDG	0	0	2	13	31	29														8.0	East. Illinois
19	Prince Amukamara	CB	NYG	0	0	1	5	20	11													2		Nebraska
20	Adrian Clayborn	DL	TAM	0	0	1	6	19	19														7.5	Iowa
21	Phil Taylor	DL	CLE	0	0	1	12	24	23														5.0	Baylor
22	Anthony Castonzo	OL	IND	0	0	2	11	27	27															Boston Col.
23	Danny Watkins	OL	PHI	0	0	1	8	23	18															Baylor
24	Cameron Jordan	DE	NOR	0	0	2	14	32	31														9.0	California
25	James Carpenter	OL	SEA	0	0	0	6	16	16															Alabama
26	Jonathan Baldwin	WR	KAN	0	0	0	4	26	9										41	579	2			Pittsburgh
27	Jimmy Smith	CB	BAL	0	0	0	3	24	5													2		Colorado
28	Mark Ingram	RB	NOR	0	0	0	8	26	9							278	1076	10	17	75	0			Alabama
29	Gabe Carimi	OL	CHI	0	0	1	6	18	16															Wisc-Eau Claire
30	Muhammad Wilkerson	DT	NYJ	0	0	2	19	32	31														8.0	Temple
				Misc				Games		Passing						Rushing			Receiving
Pick	Player	Pos	Tm	AP1	PB	St	CarAV	G	GS	QBrec	Cmp	Att	Yds	TD	Int	Att	Yds	TD	Rec	Yds	TD	Int	Sk	College/Univ
31	Cameron Heyward	DT	PIT	0	0	0	4	31	0														2.5	Ohio St.
32	Derek Sherrod	OL	GNB	0	0	0	1	5	0															Mississippi St.

Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

There was a lot of D-line talent in that round drafted after Dareus (Smith, Watt, Wilkerson) and studs like Peterson, Green, Jones, and Solder. Luckily the Bills had Ryan Fitzpatrick so they didn't need to waste a pick on Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick, who both went in the second round.

Continuing with their same theme since 1996, this year the Bills are again in need of a QB. Good QB's have appeared lately after round 1 (Dalton, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson) and I understand that Ryan Nassib could very well be available for to the Bills to pick at 41. Bills fans who like to argue with other Bills fans on Bills fans messageboards like Nassib because he went to Syracuse, which is geographically near Buffalo and thus is something of a known commodity because he was frequently on TV in western NY. Of course, JP Losman and Todd Collins were frequently on TV in western NY but that doesn't mean they were good fits for the Bills. New Bills coach Doug Marrone was Nassib's coach at Syracuse so he's seen lots of Nassib on TV too. And it honestly makes some sense for a rookie QB to play for his college coach--this has to help accelerate his learning.

The Bills need O-linemen and this draft is apparently chock full of them. They also need linebackers but apparently there aren't many in this draft. So in a perfect world (or at least my imagined perfect world) they would take a massive offensive lineman from the SEC like DJ Fluker or Chance Warmack at #8, then Nassib at #41 if he's available. If Nassib isn't there, take the best LB/QB/OL available and roll Kevin Kolb out there for a year.

In the real world, I expect Nix to draft Nassib at #8 and a WR at #41 (like Cordouroy Patterson from Tennessee, if he's available). It would be funny to joke that he'll then take Mike Glennon in the 3rd but Buddy really might do that despite signing Kolb and Tavaris Jackson.