Thursday, April 25, 2013

A Bills Draft Preview and Review, Alternatively Titled "A Confederacy of Dunces"

The NFL draft kicks off tonight and despite my well-documented lack of college football knowledge I, perhaps predictably, present a few thoughts on what the Bills will do. Note that I'm the same idiot who joked that they would take AJ Green but wanted them to take Nick Fairley.

I had an email exchange with Teedge and Work Jerry that went like this:

Teedge: Buddy nix gonna f**k this up
Work Jerry: yup
zman: Was that ever a question?
Teedge: nope

We all reached this conclusion based on the following data, i.e., Buddy Nix's picks since he joined the Bills in 2009:

Misc Rushing Receiving
Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk
2012 1 10 Stephon Gilmore CB BUF 2012 2012 0 0 1 4 1
2012 2 41 Cordy Glenn T BUF 2012 2012 0 0 1 6
2012 3 69 T.J. Graham WR BUF 2012 2012 0 0 1 3 1 5 0 31 322 1
2012 4 105 Nigel Bradham OLB BUF 2012 2012 0 0 1 5
2012 4 124 Ron Brooks CB BUF 2012 2012 0 0 0 1
2012 5 144 Zebrie Sanders T BUF 2012 2012 0 0 0 0
2012 5 147 Tank Carder ILB BUF 2012 2012 0 0 0 1
2012 6 178 Mark Asper G BUF 2012 2012 0 0 0 0
2012 7 251 John Potter K BUF 2012 2012 0 0 0 0
2011 1 3 Marcell Dareus DT BUF 2011 2012 0 0 2 14 11.0
2011 2 34 Aaron Williams DB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 1 5 1
2011 3 68 Kelvin Sheppard LB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 2 10 2.0
2011 4 100 Da'Norris Searcy DB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 3 1
2011 4 122 Chris Hairston OL BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 8
2011 5 133 Johnny White RB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 0 20 72 0 1 -3 0
2011 6 169 Chris White LB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 1
2011 7 206 Justin Rogers DB BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 2 2
2011 7 245 Michael Jasper DT BUF 2011 2011 0 0 0 0
2010 1 9 C.J. Spiller RB BUF 2010 2012 0 0 1 21 388 2088 10 106 885 5
2010 2 41 Torell Troup DT BUF 2010 2012 0 0 0 2
2010 3 72 Alex Carrington DE BUF 2010 2012 0 0 0 5 4.0
2010 4 107 Marcus Easley WR BUF 2011 2012 0 0 0 0
2010 5 140 Ed Wang T BUF 2010 2010 0 0 0 0
2010 6 178 Arthur Moats LB BUF 2010 2012 0 0 0 5 5.0
2010 6 192 Danny Batten DE BUF 2011 2011 0 0 0 2 0.5
2010 7 209 Levi Brown QB BUF 2010 2010 0 0 0 0
2010 7 216 Kyle Calloway T BUF 0 0 0
2009 1 11 Aaron Maybin DE BUF 2009 2012 0 0 0 6 6.0
2009 1 28 Eric Wood C BUF 2009 2012 0 0 4 17
2009 2 42 Jairus Byrd DB BUF 2009 2012 0 1 4 29 18 2.0
Misc Rushing Receiving
Year Rnd Pick Player Pos Tm From To AP1 PB St CarAV Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk
2009 2 51 Andy Levitre G BUF 2009 2012 0 0 4 24
2009 4 121 Shawn Nelson TE BUF 2009 2010 0 0 1 3 20 181 1
2009 5 147 Nic Harris LB BUF 2010 2010 0 0 0 3 1.5
2009 6 183 Cary Harris DB BUF 2009 2010 0 0 0 1 2
2009 7 220 Ellis Lankster DB BUF 2009 2012 0 0 0 4 2 1.0
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

This bountiful harvest yielded only one Pro Bowl pick and only six players with a career AV in double digits. More importantly, only 5 out of these 37 players have been starters for more than one season, and 20 of them (54%!!) have started fewer than 5 games. This is remarkable given the fact that the Bills have been bad to quite bad over this span so it shouldn't be too hard to replace the incumbent starters. Instead they continue to misfire in the draft (and free agency, but that's another post) and start the same old dreck.

Even when Buddy hits the mark he manages to screw it up long-term. For instance, Andy Levitre was a nice find in the second round and helped solidify a shaky offensive line. Nix let him go in free agency. CJ Spiller is a great player but the Bills already had Fred Jackson and Marshawn Lynch so they didn't need a running back. The Bills took Lynch with the 12th pick in 2007. When Nix drafted Spiller, Lynch was 24 years old and had two 1000 yard seasons and a Pro Bowl trip under his belt. Nix traded Lynch to Seattle after 4 weeks of the 2010 season and got back picks in the 4th and 5th rounds. Those picks became Chris Hairston (part-time starter at LT and RT) and Tank Carder (awesomely named LB who never made the Bills' roster), respectively.

Lynch has, of course, gone on to be one of league's the three best running backs over the past two seasons. Seriously, look:

Games Rushing Receiving Total Yds
Player Tm G GS Att Yds Y/A TD Y/G Rec Yds Y/R TD Y/G TotOff YScm APYd RtY
Adrian Peterson MIN 28 28 556 3067 5.52 24 109.5 58 356 6.14 2 12.7 3067 3423 3423 0
Marshawn Lynch SEA 31 29 600 2794 4.66 23 90.1 51 408 8.00 2 13.2 2794 3202 3202 0
Arian Foster HTX 29 28 629 2648 4.21 25 91.3 93 834 8.97 4 28.8 2648 3482 3482 0
Ray Rice RAV 32 32 548 2507 4.57 21 78.3 137 1182 8.63 4 36.9 2508 3689 3689 0
Frank Gore SFO 32 31 540 2425 4.49 16 75.8 45 348 7.73 1 10.9 2425 2773 2773 0
Chris Johnson OTI 32 31 538 2290 4.26 10 71.6 93 650 6.99 0 20.3 2290 2940 2940 0
Steven Jackson RAM 31 30 517 2187 4.23 9 70.5 80 654 8.18 1 21.1 2187 2841 2841 0
LeSean McCoy PHI 27 27 473 2149 4.54 19 79.6 102 688 6.75 6 25.5 2149 2837 2837 0
Michael Turner ATL 32 30 523 2140 4.09 21 66.9 36 296 8.22 1 9.3 2140 2436 2436 0
Shonn Greene NYJ 32 28 529 2117 4.00 14 66.2 49 362 7.39 0 11.3 2117 2479 2479 0
Matt Forte CHI 27 27 451 2091 4.64 8 77.4 96 830 8.65 2 30.7 2091 2921 2921 0
Reggie Bush MIA 31 31 443 2072 4.68 12 66.8 78 588 7.54 3 19.0 2072 2660 2712 52
Maurice Jones-Drew JAX 22 21 429 2020 4.71 9 91.8 57 460 8.07 4 20.9 2020 2480 2484 4
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

Second most rushing yards, third most rushing TD, fourth most all-purpose yards, and more receiving yards than AP! Maybe this explosion of productivity is due entirely to Seattle's system or supporting cast. Maybe the trade served as a kick in the ass to Lynch when he realized his value was only two mid-to-late draft picks. No matter how you rationalize this, it's really tough to watch your team draft a RB #12, suck for three years, then draft another RB at #9 and give up on the other highly drafted RB in return for very little so that the abandoned RB can go on and tear up the league.

Even the Marcell Dareus pick is starting to look a little suspect. Dareus is a nice player for sure, but take a look at who they passed on when they took him:

Misc Games Passing Rushing Receiving
Pick Player Pos Tm AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
1 Cam Newton QB CAR 0 0 2 33 32 32 13-19-0 590 1002 7920 40 29 253 1447 22 1 33 0 Auburn
2 Von Miller LB DEN 0 1 2 28 31 31 1 30.0 Texas A&M
3 Marcell Dareus DT BUF 0 0 2 14 32 31 11.0 Alabama
4 A.J. Green WR CIN 0 1 2 22 31 31 9 91 0 162 2407 18 Georgia
5 Patrick Peterson CB ARI 1 1 2 33 32 32 3 13 0 4 10 0 9 1.0 LSU
6 Julio Jones WR ATL 0 0 2 22 29 27 12 86 0 133 2157 18 Alabama
7 Aldon Smith DE SFO 0 0 1 18 32 16 1 33.5 Missouri
8 Jake Locker QB TEN 0 0 1 8 16 11 4-7-0 211 380 2718 14 11 49 347 2 Washington
9 Tyron Smith T DAL 0 0 2 16 31 31 USC
10 Blaine Gabbert QB JAX 0 0 2 7 25 24 5-19-0 372 691 3876 21 17 66 154 0 Missouri
11 J.J. Watt DE HOU 0 0 2 30 32 31 26.0 Wisconsin
12 Christian Ponder QB MIN 0 0 2 16 27 26 12-14-0 458 774 4788 31 25 88 472 2 1 -15 0 Florida St.
13 Nick Fairley DT DET 0 0 0 6 23 7 6.5 Auburn
14 Robert Quinn DE STL 0 0 1 9 31 15 15.5 North Carolina
15 Mike Pouncey OL MIA 0 0 2 12 32 32 Central Florida
16 Ryan Kerrigan DE WAS 0 0 2 14 32 32 2 16.0 Purdue
17 Nate Solder OL NWE 0 0 2 20 32 29 Colorado
18 Corey Liuget DT SDG 0 0 2 13 31 29 8.0 East. Illinois
19 Prince Amukamara CB NYG 0 0 1 5 20 11 2 Nebraska
20 Adrian Clayborn DL TAM 0 0 1 6 19 19 7.5 Iowa
21 Phil Taylor DL CLE 0 0 1 12 24 23 5.0 Baylor
22 Anthony Castonzo OL IND 0 0 2 11 27 27 Boston Col.
23 Danny Watkins OL PHI 0 0 1 8 23 18 Baylor
24 Cameron Jordan DE NOR 0 0 2 14 32 31 9.0 California
25 James Carpenter OL SEA 0 0 0 6 16 16 Alabama
26 Jonathan Baldwin WR KAN 0 0 0 4 26 9 41 579 2 Pittsburgh
27 Jimmy Smith CB BAL 0 0 0 3 24 5 2 Colorado
28 Mark Ingram RB NOR 0 0 0 8 26 9 278 1076 10 17 75 0 Alabama
29 Gabe Carimi OL CHI 0 0 1 6 18 16 Wisc-Eau Claire
30 Muhammad Wilkerson DT NYJ 0 0 2 19 32 31 8.0 Temple
Misc Games Passing Rushing Receiving
Pick Player Pos Tm AP1 PB St CarAV G GS QBrec Cmp Att Yds TD Int Att Yds TD Rec Yds TD Int Sk College/Univ
31 Cameron Heyward DT PIT 0 0 0 4 31 0 2.5 Ohio St.
32 Derek Sherrod OL GNB 0 0 0 1 5 0 Mississippi St.
Provided by Pro-Football-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/24/2013.

There was a lot of D-line talent in that round drafted after Dareus (Smith, Watt, Wilkerson) and studs like Peterson, Green, Jones, and Solder. Luckily the Bills had Ryan Fitzpatrick so they didn't need to waste a pick on Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick, who both went in the second round.

Continuing with their same theme since 1996, this year the Bills are again in need of a QB. Good QB's have appeared lately after round 1 (Dalton, Kaepernick, Russell Wilson) and I understand that Ryan Nassib could very well be available for to the Bills to pick at 41. Bills fans who like to argue with other Bills fans on Bills fans messageboards like Nassib because he went to Syracuse, which is geographically near Buffalo and thus is something of a known commodity because he was frequently on TV in western NY. Of course, JP Losman and Todd Collins were frequently on TV in western NY but that doesn't mean they were good fits for the Bills. New Bills coach Doug Marrone was Nassib's coach at Syracuse so he's seen lots of Nassib on TV too. And it honestly makes some sense for a rookie QB to play for his college coach--this has to help accelerate his learning.

The Bills need O-linemen and this draft is apparently chock full of them. They also need linebackers but apparently there aren't many in this draft. So in a perfect world (or at least my imagined perfect world) they would take a massive offensive lineman from the SEC like DJ Fluker or Chance Warmack at #8, then Nassib at #41 if he's available. If Nassib isn't there, take the best LB/QB/OL available and roll Kevin Kolb out there for a year.

In the real world, I expect Nix to draft Nassib at #8 and a WR at #41 (like Cordouroy Patterson from Tennessee, if he's available). It would be funny to joke that he'll then take Mike Glennon in the 3rd but Buddy really might do that despite signing Kolb and Tavaris Jackson.

45 comments:

Danimal said...

That is Jags'esque....maybe worse.

If watching Morning Joe at moment, you should know that Brian Sullivan is a Winchesterian of the Virginia type. Jwhs class of '89...one of many shining lights from the Apple Capital.

jerome said...

yup.

Jerry said...

Maybin was a really horrendous pick, but he did look good with his shirt off in that picture that was circulating before the draft.

I really have no idea how good most of these non-skill position guys are because it's tough watching Bills games. I'd assume "not that good" is a fair assessment.

That "AV" field would probably be a useful starting point for doing a league-wide draft comparison though.

I think Tank Carder is still in the league, although probably as a special teams guy. So there's that.

Mark said...

I enjoyed Corduroy Patterson. Thanks for that.

Danimal said...

hines ward will be one of this year's ironman celeb participants at kona. this wkd he is racing in his first olympic down at st. anthony's in tampa, a great race that danimal took part in last year. a change due to what happened in boston - only clear bags allowed in transition area. have to believe that will be the standard going forward at all events.

T.J. said...

this is a fun read:
http://www.sbnation.com/nfl/2013/4/24/4260996/nfl-draft-2013-scouting-the-scouts

T.J. said...

i like when daminal uses third person

Danimal said...

danimal enjoys using the 3rd person

T.J. said...

"Luckily the Bills had Ryan Fitzpatrick so they didn't need to waste a pick on Andy Dalton or Colin Kaepernick, who both went in the second round."

You just feel the zman's pain when he writes prose like that.

Mark said...

Oh man, can you imagine Kaepernick and Spiller running some read option? Sorry, Zman.

zman said...

QB wisdom from Nix!

http://espn.go.com/nfl/draft2013/story/_/id/9211442/2013-nfl-draft-buffalo-bills-gm-buddy-nix-hopes-land-franchise-quarterback

Danimal said...

Was unaware of this Ansah story. Love him.

T.J. said...

about time for both the Bills and Jets to fuck up this draft...

T.J. said...

holy shit, are the Bills trading down and perhaps doing this properly? we shall see

T.J. said...

fucking Rams are going to take Tavon Austin one pick before Jets, and now NY will probably do something stupid as fuck like draft a shitty QB

T.J. said...

Jets trade Revis, draft Alabama's Milliner to replace him. This is going to end poorly, I know it.

rob said...

jet fans, u mad at st louis?

rob said...

milliner's a great talent with a body that's got more wear and tear than clarence's. could be a real pecker wrecker.

T.J. said...

still time for Jets to kick me square in the nuts and take one of these donk QBs. or Te'o.

T.J. said...

Jets second pick...meh.

T.J. said...

hahahahahaha did Buffalo really just take E.J. Manuel???? hahahahahahaha

T.J. said...

BiLOLs

Danimal said...

WowZers.

zman said...

VY 2.0?

zman said...

NFL.com has him rated at 68.7, which rounds frattily, but is projected to be a 4th rounder.

zman said...

He is 6'5" and weighs 240. Clarence's twin brother?

Danimal said...

Yeah but those #s don't mean anything

zman said...

They could have any QB in the draft. So they took Eedge.

Mark said...

I'm sorry, Z. So very sorry.

zman said...

Buddy Nix works for Bill Belichick.

T.J. said...

zman and the Eeej?

rob said...

buffalo traded up to get manuel at 16? that's just...i mean...good thing z and dumbarton née work jerry enjoy alcohol

zman said...

zsister-in-law is a bills fan to and she asks "why do we always suck?"

zman said...

They traded down. Silver lining.

rob said...

ah, much better

zman said...

I'd rather have Tavon Austin with the #8 pick.

rob said...

indeed. more teams should have players that are roughly my size.

zman said...

Getting passed over by Marrone will put the stinkeye on Nassib causing him to plummet. The Pats will take him in the 4th. He won't play until his second year, when Muhammad Wlkerson perforates Tom Brady's lung on a hard but clean hit. Nassib will come in and tear up the league for a decade, winning multiple SB and marrying and exotic underpants model. Brady will be traded to the Bills once his lung heals.

rob said...

jarvis jones to the stillers oughta scare some quarterbacks

zman said...

Xavier Rhodes prefers the handshake to dap.

zman said...

Also from NFL.com on the Eej:

NFL COMPARISON Blaine Gabbert

Mark said...

Matt Elam was born to be a Raven. This is only kind if a compliment.

Dave said...

hi gheorghies!

TR said...

Naive Jets fas don't realize that the team is unabashedly tanking the 2014 season to make a run at one of the stud QBs in the 2014 draft. Souts are talking about at least 4 first-round prospects.

Load up on defense, let Garrard/Sanchez's performance spell the demise of Sexy Rexy, clean house with the coaching staff and get a QB.

We needed a guard badly to try to be able to run the ball competently against 8/9 man boxes all year. With that said, I would get a Crimson boner if we got Eddie Lacey at 39.

zman said...

A Harvard Crimson boner?