G:TB's Week 4 NFL Picks

We were winless last week. Therefore I am not allowed to write any more than what you just read:

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-6)
You buying the 2-1 49ers? Yeah, neither am I. Wins over Seattle and Detroit are about as impressive as Sarah Palin’s resume. New Orleans’ defense is less intimidating than Barney Frank in a tutu, but the Saints’ scoring side more than makes up for it. Despite the fact that Sean Payton’s visor makes him look for all the world like Jamie Kennedy in Malibu’s Most Wanted, the fact is the dude can coach up some offense. Mike Nolan looks suspiciously like John Boehner, right down to the store-bought tan, and us average betting fools simply can’t trust a guy that looks like that. SAINTS and the points, because Lord help me, if I go 0-3 I’m putting a steady diet of Frankie Goes to Hollywood on repeat here at G:TB.

Here’s some genyoowine Big Easy listening to get you in the mood. (rob, before you have a hissy fit, embedding has been disabled on this video, so all you get is a link)

As a bonus five-star lock in honor of our friends at the Wheelhouse, bet your bailout windfall on Alabama over Georgia Saturday night. Yes, that pick looks like a whole mess of homerrific wishful thinking on the face of it (again with the bailout talk, sheesh), but Alabama’s interior linemen are better than Georgia’s on both sides of the ball. And you can take that to the bank.

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at New York Jets
There’s an article in today’s NY Times that shows a very human and flattering side of Cardinals’ QB Kurt Warner. His kids are well-behaved, conscientious and religious, and the family preaches good manners and regularly pays for dinners for strangers in restaurants. And his wife no longer has a flat-top. It paints the portrait of a guy who’s very comfortable with where he’s at and what he’s done.

That said, this ain’t a church meeting. It’s the NFL. That stands for Not Favre Long, which is how long Brett will struggle in 2008. Arizona is going to be in for a rude awakening on Sunday. Look for the Jets to finally get some pressure on Arizona, who’ve given up 2-3 sacks per game. The sun will clear in the swamps of Jersey, Warner will fumble a couple times, Sean Ellis and Calvin Pace will make some plays and Thomas Jones will have a good day. Also, there will be two official friends of G:TB at the game to root root root for the home team. They share a first name, a passion for the Jets, loud voices and a love of processed meats. Take the Jets to cover.

Minnesota at Tennessee (-2.5)
When people talk about Minnesota, they mention a dominant defense and a lack of quality QB play. Well, this Sunday won’t be any different. Their defense will stop the run and their QB will suck hind teet. The difference is their opponent has an equally stifling defense (allowing less than 10 pts a game, and holding standouts such as Andre Johnson and TJ Hoosierdaddy to less than 30 yards apiece), but has a QB that was NEVER a 1000 to 1 favorite against a padded wall and ended up a loser (Hello Gustopher). There is a zero percent chance Frerotte strolls into Tennessee and comes out a winner. Titans win 16-10. And yes, take the under if you are so inclined.

Philadelphia (+3) at Chicago
Here’s something you may not know – the Bears have the 5th WORST pass defense in the league right now. The last thing they need is a team that throws the ball 40 times a game. Combine that with a banged up Westbrook, and it sounds like McNabb better get the icy hot shoulder wrap ready. The Philly D also appeared to learn a few things from the Dallas debacle (or maybe Dallas is just that good, don’t know) about getting to the quarterback – as evident by the 9-sack tar-and-feathering of Big Ben last weekend. We don’t see Kyle Orton finding any answers either...Philly wins 24-13 as the NFC East continues its domination.

San Diego (-7) @ Oakland
Have you ever sat down and watched JaMarcus Russell try and run the Raiders' offense? Its like watching Greg try and stop one of his impromptu drunken nosebleeds. There's no real direction, things get messy really quickly and eventually you just wanna throw up. The man is an absolute mess under center. He doesn't read defenses well (never has), displays little to no touch on his short and intermediate throws and is as inaccurate a passer as you'll see at this level. Honestly, the biggest upset in Oakland isn't that Lane Kiffin still has a job, but that the Dolphins were the first team to heavily employ the Wildcat package in their offense. (Which brings up something I've been thinking about...Is JaMarcus Russell the Bizarro Chad Pennington? Think about it, one has all the intangibles you want in a QB with little to none of the physical skills while the other has every conceivable physicall attribute you could desire in a QB but combines that with low mental acuity for the position as well as a, umm, subpar work ethic).

On the other hand, Phillip Rivers is starting to look like the savvy, smart QB he was at NC State while also having more weapons at his disposal than ever before. I'd expect the San Diego's offense to continue to play at the high level they've established since the 2nd half of their first game. However, I also expect San Diego's defense (2 ints, at least, book it) and Darren Sproles to supply the offense with steady diet of good field position and opportunites to score. See, what I'm saying here is this one won't be close. Chargers...big.