Friday, September 26, 2008

G:TB's Week 4 NFL Picks

We were winless last week. Therefore I am not allowed to write any more than what you just read:

San Francisco @ New Orleans (-6)
You buying the 2-1 49ers? Yeah, neither am I. Wins over Seattle and Detroit are about as impressive as Sarah Palin’s resume. New Orleans’ defense is less intimidating than Barney Frank in a tutu, but the Saints’ scoring side more than makes up for it. Despite the fact that Sean Payton’s visor makes him look for all the world like Jamie Kennedy in Malibu’s Most Wanted, the fact is the dude can coach up some offense. Mike Nolan looks suspiciously like John Boehner, right down to the store-bought tan, and us average betting fools simply can’t trust a guy that looks like that. SAINTS and the points, because Lord help me, if I go 0-3 I’m putting a steady diet of Frankie Goes to Hollywood on repeat here at G:TB.

Here’s some genyoowine Big Easy listening to get you in the mood. (rob, before you have a hissy fit, embedding has been disabled on this video, so all you get is a link)

As a bonus five-star lock in honor of our friends at the Wheelhouse, bet your bailout windfall on Alabama over Georgia Saturday night. Yes, that pick looks like a whole mess of homerrific wishful thinking on the face of it (again with the bailout talk, sheesh), but Alabama’s interior linemen are better than Georgia’s on both sides of the ball. And you can take that to the bank.

Arizona Cardinals (+1.5) at New York Jets
There’s an article in today’s NY Times that shows a very human and flattering side of Cardinals’ QB Kurt Warner. His kids are well-behaved, conscientious and religious, and the family preaches good manners and regularly pays for dinners for strangers in restaurants. And his wife no longer has a flat-top. It paints the portrait of a guy who’s very comfortable with where he’s at and what he’s done.

That said, this ain’t a church meeting. It’s the NFL. That stands for Not Favre Long, which is how long Brett will struggle in 2008. Arizona is going to be in for a rude awakening on Sunday. Look for the Jets to finally get some pressure on Arizona, who’ve given up 2-3 sacks per game. The sun will clear in the swamps of Jersey, Warner will fumble a couple times, Sean Ellis and Calvin Pace will make some plays and Thomas Jones will have a good day. Also, there will be two official friends of G:TB at the game to root root root for the home team. They share a first name, a passion for the Jets, loud voices and a love of processed meats. Take the Jets to cover.

Minnesota at Tennessee (-2.5)
When people talk about Minnesota, they mention a dominant defense and a lack of quality QB play. Well, this Sunday won’t be any different. Their defense will stop the run and their QB will suck hind teet. The difference is their opponent has an equally stifling defense (allowing less than 10 pts a game, and holding standouts such as Andre Johnson and TJ Hoosierdaddy to less than 30 yards apiece), but has a QB that was NEVER a 1000 to 1 favorite against a padded wall and ended up a loser (Hello Gustopher). There is a zero percent chance Frerotte strolls into Tennessee and comes out a winner. Titans win 16-10. And yes, take the under if you are so inclined.

Philadelphia (+3) at Chicago
Here’s something you may not know – the Bears have the 5th WORST pass defense in the league right now. The last thing they need is a team that throws the ball 40 times a game. Combine that with a banged up Westbrook, and it sounds like McNabb better get the icy hot shoulder wrap ready. The Philly D also appeared to learn a few things from the Dallas debacle (or maybe Dallas is just that good, don’t know) about getting to the quarterback – as evident by the 9-sack tar-and-feathering of Big Ben last weekend. We don’t see Kyle Orton finding any answers either...Philly wins 24-13 as the NFC East continues its domination.

San Diego (-7) @ Oakland
Have you ever sat down and watched JaMarcus Russell try and run the Raiders' offense? Its like watching Greg try and stop one of his impromptu drunken nosebleeds. There's no real direction, things get messy really quickly and eventually you just wanna throw up. The man is an absolute mess under center. He doesn't read defenses well (never has), displays little to no touch on his short and intermediate throws and is as inaccurate a passer as you'll see at this level. Honestly, the biggest upset in Oakland isn't that Lane Kiffin still has a job, but that the Dolphins were the first team to heavily employ the Wildcat package in their offense. (Which brings up something I've been thinking about...Is JaMarcus Russell the Bizarro Chad Pennington? Think about it, one has all the intangibles you want in a QB with little to none of the physical skills while the other has every conceivable physicall attribute you could desire in a QB but combines that with low mental acuity for the position as well as a, umm, subpar work ethic).

On the other hand, Phillip Rivers is starting to look like the savvy, smart QB he was at NC State while also having more weapons at his disposal than ever before. I'd expect the San Diego's offense to continue to play at the high level they've established since the 2nd half of their first game. However, I also expect San Diego's defense (2 ints, at least, book it) and Darren Sproles to supply the offense with steady diet of good field position and opportunites to score. See, what I'm saying here is this one won't be close. Chargers...big.

24 comments:

Dennis said...

G:TB is gonna get at least 4 this week. I feel it in my loins.

TJ said...

Dude, you might have what Denzel got in Ricochet.

rob said...

that bears 5th-worst pass defense thing is significantly impacted by the fact that brian griese threw 67 times last sunday because the bucs couldn't run the ball. just sayin.

TJ said...

Oh boy, its Stephen A vs Skip on 1st and 10...shoot me now.

Jerry said...

Booo...the Jets...Mike Bossy....Al Arbah...

TJ said...

Can we get periodic updates from what I'm sure will be an entertaining Jets tailgate?

Geoff said...

Mike Nolan and John Boehner do not look alike.

Mark said...

Where's my pick TJ? You already to drunk to post it? God, I hate you.

Geoff said...

Friday after 11am...pretty safe to assume TJ's had a couple...

Marlin said...

While I do love me the processed meats, my NFL rooting interests lie with the NY Football Giants.

That said, I cannot pass up the chance to hang out in a parking lot in NJ with 80K of my fellow long islanders and rhymo.

Boo

TJ said...

MOTHER F'ING FISH STICKS!!!!!

rob said...

the state of the uva football program really breaks my heart.

and how does tommy bowden still have a job?

TJ said...

Johan Santana stepping up freaking huge for Whit's Mets today.

TJ said...

Should we send a neighbor to check on Mark?

rob said...

no kidding. ole miss? in gainesville? on a blocked pat? dagger.

rob said...

i'm gonna be testing my tivo aversion tonight - anniversary dinner with the wife. i'll miss at least the first half of the bama/uga game. i'm an idiot.

rob said...

auburn's "offense" is hard to watch.

Mark said...

I'm okay...I guess. Florida looked like sloppy shit today and in no way deserved to win that game, but I was really thinking they had a shot (and they did) until the very end. Fuck. Me.

Do you realize Florida is 1-3 in its last 4 meetings with Ole Miss?

Over the years Florida has lost a number of games to bad SEC West teams, but for some reason I had next week versus Arkansas as the possible slip up game. Shows what the fuck I know.

Somehow, losing to crazy ass Houston Nutt makes it worse. As Vitas said, "we lost this ashole?"
Yes, yes we did.

rob said...

those wheelhousers knew what they were doing not letting me pick the bama game. roll tide.

Mark said...

Hey Rob! Go to hell...no...that was mean. Thanks to you and Bama for easing the pain a little by stomping UGA. Between that and the fine ladies down at Lido's Cabaret, I think I'm just about over that Florida/Ole Miss game.

TJ said...

56 points eh? Not too shabby.

And I am very impressed by the Skins right now.

TJ said...

According to the new poster I saw on the metro this morning, the DC Dept of Health actually lists "cough into your sleeve" as one of their tips for preventing the flu. Seems like sound medical advice.

And, with me not picking, looks like we went 4-1 this week. Sounds about right.

TJ said...

It has just been brought to my attention that the Raiders attempted a 76 yard FG yesterday.

That. is. awesome.

amanda young said...

Wow! Such an impressive performance by Stephen A. that was awesome. amanda vanderpool model