********
Now back to our regularly scheduled dipshittery.
Robert Mays beat me to the punch as to why the Bills will stink this year. In a nutshell, their defense lost Pro Bowler Marcell Dareus to rehab, first and second round picks Shaq Lawson and Reggie Ragland to injuries, jawbreaker IK Enempkali to injury, Nigel Bradham to the Eagles, and Mario Williams to the team's general stupidity. And they cut Manny Lawson.
Accordingly, I am not optimistic that they will improve on last year's 8-8 record. In fact, here's how I see things unfolding weekly.
Most of these columns are self-explanatory, except for the "why" column, which I will explain.
"west coast" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's on the west coast. In the Pacific time zone, Buffalo is 16-36-1 all-time; 5-15 in their last twenty games; 2-9 since 2000; and 0-5 in their last five games. I see no reason for optimism in any of the road trips to Seattle (one of the best three teams in football with serious home field advantage), Oakland (everyone's favorite up-and-coming team), or LA (fearsome pass rush, Todd Gurley).
Running tally of losses: 3
"pats" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Pats. Against the Patriots, Buffalo is 4-28 since 2000; 2-18 in their last twenty games; and had a fifteen game losing streak from 2003 to 2010. The week 4 game will feature Jimmy Garappolo instead of Tom Brady, but Buffalo will lose anyway because it's at Gillette. In away games versus the Pats, the Bills are 20-36 all-time; 2-14 since 2000; 3-17 in their last 20 games; and had a twelve game losing streak from 2001 to 2013. Think about that last factoid--that span includes both of W's terms, all of Obama's first term and a year of his second term! I see no reason for optimism in these two games.
Running tally of losses: 5
"pitt" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against the Steelers. Against Pittsburgh, Buffalo is 8-13 all-time; 0-5 since 2000; 2-8 in their last ten games; and 1-8 all-time at Pittsburgh. The Steelers have won 61 games in the past six years. By contrast, the Bills have won 59 games in the past nine seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Pittsburgh.
Running tally of losses: 6
"jets split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Jets because they are the Bills and Jets. Against the Jets, Buffalo is 17-15 since 2000 and 10-10 in their last twenty games. On the road against the Jets, the Bills are 27-28 all-time; 10-10 since 2000; and 8-12 in their last 20 games. Buffalo won the last five games in this series and the math makes it appear that this trend can't continue much longer.
Running tally of losses: 7
"fish split" means that the Bills will split the series against the Fish because they are the Bills and Fish. Against Miami, the Bills are 17-15 since 2000 and 12-8 in their last 20 games. In games played in Miami, the Bills are merely 17-32-1 all-time but 7-9 since 2000; 8-12 in their last 20 games; and 5-5 in their last ten games. Hence I predict a split. Miami will lose in Buffalo because the game will be played on December 24. I guarantee that the weather will be brutally cold (hence the "cold" in the "why" column) and will make the Floridians want to get back on the plane as soon as possible. Except for Jay Fiedler, they will also be unhappy that they have to travel western New York to play a game on Christmas Eve in a frozen wasteland of unemployment and alcoholism instead of celebrating the birth of the messiah with family and friends in beautiful south Florida.
Running tally of losses: 8
"good team" means that the Bills will lose the game because it's against a good team. The Bengals made the playoffs five years running, with 52 wins over that span. By contrast, the Bills won 52 games over the past eight years and haven't made the playoffs in sixteen years. The Cardinals are no slouch either, with 34 wins and two playoff appearances over the past three seasons. I see no reason for optimism in an away game versus Cincy or any game against the Cardinals.
Running tally of losses: 10
I think they can beat the Niners at home and the Ravens in Baltimore because they are bad teams, even badder than the Bills. They'll beat Cleveland because Cleveland used all its mojo up with the Cavaliers. I have no idea why they'll beat Jacksonville, I guess I'm just not picking up what the Jaguars are putting down. Splits with the Jets and Fish account for the other two wins.
So the Bills will go 6-10. If I'm in a really optimistic mood I might convince myself that Buffalo can sweep the Jets and Dolphins. Thus even my most optimistic view is another 8-8 season.
I'm happier to hear, and even encourage, rosier predictions for the Bills in the comments. But I don't expect any.
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64 comments:
Re: preschool. Get used to it Zman. Raffles, bake sales, food drives and much much more.
In better news, we started Stranger Things. As good as advertised.
It appears that the Bills play Pittsburgh in Orchard Park, not Pittsburgh. I still think the Bills will lose.
sending good vibes your way, squeak. wish i could send good beer, too.
We started MR. Robot - 2 episodes in. It's not my wife's cup of tea yet but I think she'll come around. I've always enjoyed Slater, an underappreciated actor in my opinion.
Preparing for another wkd on the road so to speak as my son partakes in his first "big boy" out-of-town, multi-day swim meet down in Daytona - the soon to be renamed possibly "Lochte Classic". As humbly as I can say, he dominates his summer stuff. A 3rd or even a 2nd place finish is rare and disappointing for him including end of year County Championships. I'm looking forward to the competition and to see how he stacks up. One of these days I'll do an obnoxious post on his accomplishments.
Thanks, Rob.
The downside, we'll be missing the Packers (-5.5) Jags game....a bit of a downer.
GB favored by 5.5 over Jax...that's the smallest spread against a top tier opponent in 5 or 6 years. Until the Jags prove otherwise, I'd go with the favorite.
Rex is not a good coach, and he's likely to be worse w/ his werewolfian brother around.
I watched the first episode of Atlanta last night. It is very good. Don't be tardy to the party on that show.
I've been a Slater fan at least since Gleaming the Cube. For much of my youth I believed he was an awesome skateboarder.
And holy smokes is that record against the Patriots bad. If someone approached me on the street and asked me to guess their record during that time (unlikely but not theoretically impossible), I would have guessed the Bills won 10+. Why do I feel like they play the Pats tough?
Because you fell and hit your head? To be fair, there have been some close losses over the past 15 years. But plenty of lopsided losses as well. Lots of losses generally. Note that the streak includes two games against Matt Cassel.
http://pfref.com/tiny/QagX7
Also fun to look at:
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BradTo00/gamelog/?opp_id=buf
Also note that the 20 game cutoff was arbitrary for the Pats. Buffalo has 2 wins in their last 25 games vs. New England, and 3 in their last 31.
A lot to unpack here: Mr. Robot is great but definitely not for everyone. My wife liked not loved it so I moved into to season 2 without her.
Their is an ALF cameo in season 2 that's sure to please the Teej.
I've long been a Chrisitian Slater fan as well. Going back to the Gleaming the Cube/Pump Up the Volume days. My first movie theater make out happened during Gleaming the Cube.
I taped the first episode of Atlanta and am excited to watch when I return from Miami.
I think the Jags are being overrated. That defense is probably still not very good. That's my position until proven otherwise.
That scene in the abbey from The Name of the Rose though. Whew! That movie also had James Bond, Dar Adal, Clay Morrow AND Hellboy!
If you like CSI, NCIS, Law & Order, or any other show that clearly delineates good guys from bad guys; shows where each episode is a stand-alone event for which you need no context from previous episodes; and shows completely devoid of any ambiguity, then you will hate Mr. Robot. But if you don't like shwag TV then you'll love Mr. Robot.
Currently in the middle of one of the best meals I've had in some time. Alter in Wynwood. They can have all my money.
Greetings and salutations. Heathers was vintage Slater.
Coolest Slater?
Christian Slater
Kelly Slater
Slater from Dazed and Confused
Slater from GTB and Wheelhouse comments
A.C. Slater
John Slattery is cooler than all those mamalukes.
Sterling's Gold!!
Ulee's Gold?
(Puts grumpy old man hat on)
The 4th quarter of last night's NFL game was brutal to watch and reminds me why my interest in the NFL is fading. The sequence where they reviewed the Broncos' catch on the 1-yd line took forever. I like watching the game, but hate hearing analysts say the same thing over and over again while watching a replay 20 times. This "you have to get the call right" line of thinking is crap. Human error is fine. Just keep the shit moving so the game isn't 3.5 hours long.
Later, I heard Collinsworth dissect the play where Cam got drilled in the head, but grounded the ball b/c he didn't throw it past the line of scrimmage. They actually had a replay w/ red grid lines to show the tackle box and the line of scrimmage. And we actually have the color commentator giving his $0.02 on this stuff. We have moved so far from the actual game itself. I don't know or care if Cam moved outside of the left ass-cheek of the left tackle before he threw. I just want to watch a football game.
Players are still getting drilled in the head left and right. The rules are becoming so complex and farcical that the game dialogue is veering into a preposterous discussion.
(Takes grumpy old man hat off)
I watched some tennis instead of football, then dug into a bottle of Michter's rye for back-to-back viewings of Narcos and Mr. Robot (I'm a few episodes behind). I do not regret this decision. Once I'm out of my Narcos/Mr. Robot/House of Cards/The Night Of backlog I'll turn my attention to Thursday night football.
I didn't watch a single snap. I ate a great meal, hit up a clothing/shoe store pop up. Then met some friends for drinks at a cool bar in Wynwood. I have zero regrets about these decisions. The NFL is becoming more boring by the year. I'll still watch (we all will) but it feels less and less like appointment viewing each year.
Kelly is the best Slater. Brevard County!
I watched last night's game on twitter, as I often seem to do these days when it comes to live sporting events
I only watched the 4th qtr of the game b/c I had a 14.5 hr workday. Maybe I was in a salty mood. And I'm trying to abstain from the sauce for a bit. That probably didn't help.
Berman is doing play-by-play again for the late MNF game, so go back-back-back-back-back-back to your DVR and set record.
I ate Chicken Vindaloo at my desk last night. One of the worst all-time "eat at your desk late at night" foods you can consume. It's very messy and spicy as hell and takes up your whole deal w/ rice and a plate. It's so spicy you feel the burn on the way in and on the way out.
Rookie mistake by me. I'll just get a wrap next time.
Hit Seamless and get matter paneer from Chola. Or just do the right thing and get Naya.
Z- I hope you're enjoying Joey Badass on season 2 of Mr. Robot. It gets better.
Yardbird in Miami is fanfuckingtastic. Best fried chicken I've ever had and largest bourbon selection (including 10 and 20 year Pappy) I've seen in some time. I'm full. And a little drunk.
Best fried chicken ever? Ever-ever?
Best I've ever had but I've never been to Gus's Fried Chicken in Memphis.
And I saw what you did there, Z.
nice work, zman. i hope things work out for you and buffalo goes 8-8
just got a sentence up. as usual, it's brilliant.
channel z!
At tonight's "welcome to kindergarten" picnic zson grabbed a woman's ass. Not another kid's ass, a grown woman's ass. He can get away with it now but not forever.
But he can get away with it now.
Louisville is up on the Cuse 28-7 with 4 min left in the 1st. Their qb, Lamar Jackson, is quite good having helped his team rack up 280 yards of offense thus far. And I don't think it's bc SU is terrible....they don't seem that incompetent at all. Louisville is nice. I know that will make the Petrino fans happy.
Speaking of Bobby, did anyone by chance hear Musberger's Petrino quip during last week's game? It was a dandy, referencing his motorcycling capabilities.
I did hear it, Danimal. It was pretty great. Musberger slipped it in at the back end of some Petrino praise. Changed the tenor of the the whole thing.
Lamar Jackson is stud. McElwain almost flipped him right after he got the Florida job (Jackson is a Miami kid). He's up there with CJ Spiller on my "what if" list of Florida recruits.
Z, that did not fly for a grown teej at crystal city restaurant. At 30. Get ur kid in line.
344 passing and 140 rushing for Lamar. In the first half.
Next week's Louisville-FSU game might be the most talented QB matchup of the CFB season.
I am, once again, stuffed after an indulgent meal in Miami. Also, my B to B- Spanish is being put to the test by my Miami area Uber drivers.
411 yards passing and 199 yards rushing for Lamar Jackson. That's good, right?
Muy Bueno.
If he had gained one more yard he would have been the first ever with a 400/200 game. Okay...I'm done with the Lamar love fest for now.
One of many reasons I'm too scared to buy a classic car.
http://www.roadandtrack.com/car-culture/buying-maintenance/a30734/porsche-993-values/?mag=rdt&list=nl_rdt_news&src=nl&date=091016
insanely hot today for an all day soccer tournament, so i am bringing our tent canopy thing. of course, there's also supposed to be thunderstorms so it's definitely going to get airborne and kill a child (hopefully an opposing player).
Does it come with a bag like your beach umbrella? If so have fun packing it up in the rain!
Um, what just happened with Central Mich? I changed the channel when OK St threw it away on 4th down with 0:00 left? Was there a grounding call? So mad I flipped the channel.
mark, my nephew is working security at the swamp today. it's his first gator game.
I'm guessing he's enjoying himself. I'm sure he's hot as hell but The Swamp is a great place to be when the offense is clicking.
I'm also guessing Mayhugh figured out what happened in the Ok State. Crazy. And apparently should've never happened. Who cares. That's what the Pokes get for being in a game with Central Michigan that late.
canopy bag packs up rather easily. really fucking hot out there, but i'm in a/c now after much coaching.
i am drinking a troeg's nimble giant. 16 oz, 9% alcohol, and i'm totally dehydrated, so it's the equivalent of one billion beers.
i asked him if he's getting to watch any of the game, and he replied, 'kinda, but mostly i'm just dealing with drunks'.
Sounds about right. Your nephew needs a new job so he can truly enjoy game days.
Just completed a Hamilton/neighborhood block party double dip. Also completely dehydrated.
between the over-earnest flag-waving, the racist dogwhistling, the attempts by politicians and folks of all stripes to one-up each other to prove their patriotism, and the fucking sadness that still, after all these years, lays over the day like a lead weight, tomorrow's gonna be just spectacularly awesome on social media. i may take the day off.
Uh, Rob, u posted that at the exact time I tweeted that tomorrow will be the worst day ever on Twitter dot com
yes. i'm glad that we can share the brain again, now that you've completed your graduate schooling.
holy shit, dude. what you just posted.
World championship of darts is on One World Sports. Great announcers win awesome dart jargon.
So two questions:
If you were going to church (or some other religious institution) tomorrow, what would you expect as remembrance of the day 15 years ago?
And if you had Gronk on your Fantasy team and now know his status, what would you do?!
what i would expect would depend on the congregation, but what i'd want is something low key, with an allowance for personal reflection.
Talde is a great restaurant in Brooklyn and Jersey City that we've eaten at on our last two trips to NY. They've opened a spot in Miami. Just finished a late dinner. So good. I can't endorse the pretzel port chive dumplings enough.
Catching up...
Chicken vindaloo. Best referenced here. Which leads you here.
Rob/TJ/then Rob again just spelled out my thoughts exactly on a remembrance. Several of us gheorghies got hit hard by 9/11. I won't like anyone using its reference for political currency. As for the pulpit, trying to find forgiveness may fall on deaf ears, but clinging to venom rots your pancreas.
No love for the local Slater? Come on...
eagerly anticipating 'fuck that's good: gtb edition' post from mark.
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