Wednesday, February 06, 2013

Straight Fax Homie


Today is National Signing Day. Which means thousands of grown men have taken the day off work so they can monitor which 17 and 18 year old high school football players will fax (yes, they still use fax machines for this in 2013) a signed letter of intent to their favorite college. Thousands more grown men will spend most of their day at work monitoring these same activities via their computer. Many of these are successful, intelligent men. If this all sounds completely ridiculous to you, that's because it is. On the other hand, it's also understandable.

College Football has (over the last decade) become America's second most popular sport behind professional football (Translation: Americans like football. A lot.) and College Football is a sport where a team's success is largely determined by a University's ability to recruit, sign and develop the most talented high school football players in America. Millions (and increasingly billions) of dollars are at stake each National Signing Day. Many people do not like the attention paid to National Signing Day (or the seedy, slimy path that leads us to NSD) and I understand their reservations. Unfortunately for them, the popularity of college football recruiting isn't going anywhere. At least not for the foreseeable future. What was once something only die hard College Football fans followed has become an industry unto itself. With two nationally televised All-American games, four national recruiting websites that employ hundreds of people each and an untold number of magazines devoted exclusively to recruiting.

While recruiting is certainly an inexact science (Colin Kaepernick and his whopping total of one Division I scholarship offer come to mind), it's not as wild a guessing game as some would have you believe. Are there plenty of players who end up never coming close to fulfilling their potential each year? Absolutely. Just as there are many kids who far exceed their recruiting rankings and surpass many of their much more highly touted classmates on their school's depth charts.

Why's this? Because analysts are trying to project the next 3-5 years of an 18 year olds life. I couldn't have predicted my own collegiate career with any accuracy when I was 18 (For the record, I attended 3 different colleges in my first three years). Moreover, NFL teams with better background information, more game tape and sophisticated scouting departments regularly screw up their drafts. So it shouldn't come as a surprise that College Football recruiting is filled with "misses". Quite the opposite. With all that said, the recruiting rankings can be (and usually are) a great guide for which programs are moving in the right (or wrong) direction. Ole Miss is a great example this year. Somehow, Ole Miss is ranked in the top 15 recruiting classes in the nation this year, with a legitimate shot to land the nation's #1 overall player, #1 Offensive Lineman and #1 Wide Receiver. And Hugh Freeze would like you to shut the hell up about it, thank you very much.

Of course, the best example of recruiting rankings being a good guide for program success is current back to back BCS Champion, Alabama. Despite having a roster loaded to the gills with 4 and 5 star recruits, Nick Saban and his staff continually pull in recruiting classes in the top 2 or 3 in the country. No small feat considering that every other school is using the Tide's depth of talent to recruit against them. However, yet again, this year the Tide have pulled in either the #1 or #2 class in the country heading into today. How does Saban manage to convince kids to come to Tuscaloosa despite a roster filled with high school All-Americans? There are plenty of reasons: The program's continued success, the amount of Alabama players being drafted into the NFL, the deep pockets of Alabama's boosters (allegedly) and numerous others. Another key reason is that Saban has a proven track record of playing talented freshman when they're better than the upperclassmen at their position (Examples: Mark Ingram, Julio Jones, DJ Fluker, Amari Cooper and on and on). The best players want a chance to play, prove themselves and move onto to the NFL. Saban has proven to high school recruits that they can do just that under his watch Oh, and it also doesn't hurt that Alabama spends a shit ton of money on recruiting. Being able to bring a recruit into a place like this isn't bad either.


Now, if you look at the recruiting rankings I linked to above, you'll notice that many schools have commits from over 20+ kids. Which begs the question: If most of these guys are already committed then why is National Signing Day a big deal? Because these are 18 year old kids being wooed like NFL stars and, well, kids change their minds. Lots. Lots and lots. Just last year, a 5 star recruit named Dante Fowler, Jr. who had been committed to FSU for over a year decided on the night before National Signing Day that Florida was a better place for him. He surprised everyone and faxed his letter of intent to Gainesville the next morning. Fowler ended up being a major contributor as a freshman at Florida and will assuredly start as a true sophomore. And this sort of thing isn't an isolated case. It happens every year, all over the country and will happen multiple times tomorrow.

Did I take off work? No. Most of Florida's class is taken care of (barring any last second defections). Will I spend more time checking things on Twitter than I do working today? Most likely.

Also, one thing to keep in mind when you hear people bemoaning the circus created by the announcements of these kids today. Sometimes, a kid does something really original to announce his commitment.


And sometimes that same kid will get arrested for felony possession of a firearm and be thrown off the team in less than a year. Keep today in perspective, folks. (Also, don't tweet at recruits...dummy)

31 comments:

Jerry said...

Simultaneously overrated and underrated. And incredible day.

Mark said...

I really enjoy today. Non-stop updates, kids flipping, fax machines down (FSU). Good times.

Jerry said...

Hats.

Mark said...

Fred's got HATS!

Greg said...

This is how I imagine all the Ole Miss recruits experience NSD:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SRH-Ywpz1_I

Mark said...

One of the underrated aspects of NSD is commits getting the name of their college wrong, like say 'The University of Ole Miss'.

Greg said...

ICE TO SEE YOU

rob said...

it's a lot, lot nicer in orlando today than it is in leesburg. i'm starting to understand why people come here in the winter.

rob said...

usa/honduras world cup qualifier at 4:00. get some. klinsmann starting a very attacking side. fun.

Dave said...

nice post mark, but could use a bit more footage of michelle jenneke.

Whitney said...

Okay, peeps, question for you. At the 11th hour, I have been asked to fly to Grand Rapids, Michigan tomorrow morning and hand-deliver a package to a customer. Flights coming back east after I have the meeting are few, far between, and late -- might need to stay over.

Here's the interesting wrinkle. I'll have a rental car, as I will need to drive to Whitehall, MI. I don't necessarily have to stay within the Grand Rapids area. I could be in one of a few other cities within a few hours and enjoy myself. Might as well have some fun since I am taking one for the team.

(Relatively) nearby cities:
Detroit
Ann Arbor
Lansing
Kalamazoo
South Bend
Toledo
Fort Wayne
Chicago

Obviously one of those rises to the top automatically. But I turn to you, good friends, for advice. Any suggestions?

Whitney said...

Of course, it looks like heavy snow there, so that may limit things.

Mark said...

Chicago. After that, I say Ann Arbor.

Also, Lane Kiffin has had 9 commits de-commit over the past two months and two today. Ha!

Mark said...

Rob...there is a Leesburg about 30 minutes north of Orlando. In case you get home sick.

Danimal said...

chicago. or you could seek out an insurance convention at one of the local grand rapids hotels. those look like fun.
rob. welcome to florida. i'm in north carolina though.

Whitney said...

McGuire still in Chi-town? Amy other chums?

Greg said...

Morris or Pierre?

zman said...

Brock's.

zman said...

By that I meant Broka.

T.J. said...

two things that suck:
- food poisoning
- and the Tribe's 2nd half defense tonight

T.J. said...

Wiz defeat Knicks at Verizon, place seemed to be 80 percent NY fans

I'm just ignoring the Tribe result

rob said...

tribe, man. shoot 50+ percent from 3, compete on the boards, give up 51 points in a half. lose. again. marls is a dope.

rob said...

we'll probably still qualify for the world cup, but it'll be closer than it needs to be. klinsmannnnnn!!!

Danimal said...

Yes...mcguire still there but w child. An early hi gheorghies but started at 5. Pinehurst nc.

Danimal said...

hi gheorghies.

Danimal said...

where did whitney end up?

Danimal said...

rob, who did they lose to?

Whitney said...

On a plane headed for Chicago. Going to drive into the snow of that M-state to drop the case, then back to Chi-town. Will fly back tonight unless something intriguing develops.

rob said...

is this a blues brothers remake of some sort?

Squeaky said...

This is for the 420 crowd. New e-cig.

Did Whit make it out of Chi-town?

Whitney said...

Just crossed into the Mitten State!