- The Fightin' Wrens have perplexed friend and foe this season, showing substantial promise and confounding ineptitude, often within the same game.
- W&M's 3-8 conference record is good for a 9th-place tie with Hofstra (6th place among the 7 teams eligible for the CAA Tournament), and places the Tribe a full 2.5 games behind 5th-place-among-eligibles Drexel with five games to play. This isn't very good.
- Given both 1. and 2. above, we agree that W&M will finish either 6th or 7th among eligible teams;
The format of the abbreviated 2013 CAA Tournament means that the 6/7 seeds play the 3/2 seeds in the first round, avoiding the top-seeded Northeastern Huskies, who are clearly the class of the conference, until the finals. At the moment, the 2/3 line is being contested by Delaware, James Madison, and George Mason, all of whom are flawed teams that a hot Tribe squad is entirely capable of beating. (Ignore for the moment that fact that we're 0-3 against that trio this season. It's misleading in that it doesn't fit my narrative.)
Tribe coach Tony Shaver has demonstrated repeatedly his ability to get a team ready for the CAA Tournament, and this is one is his most talented, if not his deepest. Shaver's got four weeks and seven games to figure out why this squad has periodic lapses in concentration and solve its most pressing problem. If he does, the Tribe's chances are as good as anyone's in Richmond.
Tonight marks the first of a four-games-in-eight days stretch that'll tell us a lot about whether Shaver's grokked his team's curious character. Three of those four are in Williamsburg, where W&M is 6-3 this season, and all save one are against mediocre opponents.
That one is this evening, as the aforementioned Northeastern Huskies travel from snowbound Boston. NU is 16-8, 11-1 in the CAA, and has shown a propensity for making plays when it matters most. Sort of the bizarro Tribe in that regard. W&M took the Huskies to double overtime in Boston in late January before falling, 95-91.
At this point, we are what our record says we are. But it says here that we don't necessarily need to stay that way. Lotta ball left. (Yeah, we're bringing that hoary chestnut back. Nothing else seems to have worked this season.)