Thursday, March 01, 2018

This Week in Wrenball: "This is William & Mary's Year" (!) (?) (!)

In the early years of this blog, long-lost internet friend Wheelhouse Jerry dubbed us Futile Superfans for our quixotic obsession with William & Mary basketball. We proudly wore that moniker, a marker of our hope in the face of overwhelming contrary evidence.

Justin Pierce, next year's CAA POY
Sometime around 2008, a tiny fissure opened in the clouds, and the futility was washed away by the smallest glimpse of real possibility. W&M first made a CAA Tournament final in an absurdly improbable way, then made another, and still two more, the latter pair in line with growing expectations.

We chronicled the evolution of those expectations in this space as the Tribe backed up its 2008 trip to the tournament final with a more confident run in 2010. That team fell short against regular season champions ODU, but scored an NIT bid, and nearly beat North Carolina. Then, in 2014, those expectations led to perhaps the most gutting loss we superfans have ever experienced.

I wrote this at the end of our story about that last-second loss to Delaware:

"It's a simple game.

So why does it hurt so much?"

Just one year later, FOG:TB Jerry Beach had occasion to ask a similar question after W&M won one of the most entertaining sporting contests I've ever seen live, defeating Hofstra on a double-overtime buzzer beater to advance to the finals. That W&M lost its fourth title game in eight seasons was a bitter pill covered with the spoonful of sugar that remains that semifinal.

I was prepared, as the Tribe closed out a surprisingly successful regular season with an 11-7 conference record (18-11 overall), to be satisfied. In quarterfinal opponent Towson, we face a team that's physically tougher and far more athletic, and used those attributes to drub the Tribe twice this season. In the unlikely event we win that game, we'd likely face top-seeded Charleston. With Nathan Knight, Justin Pierce, and Matt Milon all just sophomores, I was ready to mentally close the book on 2017-18, accept our tournament fate, and retire to blogfight another day.

That's when this happened:


Ken Pomeroy, the guru of modern collegiate hoops statistical analysis, ground up his pile of bones and entrails, added a dash of SAS-based voodoo, decided W&M was a 7% longshot to win the CAA Tournament...and saw the future.

The same W&M that's last in the CAA (and 343rd nationally) in defensive efficiency. That can't stop my mother from getting to the rim. That allows opponents to shoot 48.9% from the field (55.6% from inside the arc). Those guys.

I don't exactly know what KenPom's divinations revealed to him. Was it David Cohn's school-record assist total, or down-the-stretch efficiency. Was it the fact that five different W&M rotation players shoot better than 40% from three, that the only one that doesn't is Nathan Knight, who leads the squad in scoring and offensive efficiency, that Connor Burchfield's .522 long-ball percentage led the nation, that all five W&M starters average double figures in scoring, and each of them is capable of dropping 20 on any given evening? Was it the Tribe's best in America three-point and free throw shooting, or Justin Pierce's emergence as That Guy?

Or was it just fucking karma?

Either way, if Ken Pomeroy is in, then, well, maybe we shouldn't argue.

W&M versus Towson at 2:30 on Sunday for a quarter of the marbles. KenPom knows what time it is.

27 comments:

zman said...

In my limited experience, your mother knows her way around the rim.

Danimal said...

hey-ooooo!!!! right out of the gate is The. Z. Man!!!!!!

I was devastated to learn yesterday that a meeting I would most typically be present for between a potential client and our company included Hoover from Animal House. Hoover is the Pres of the board of this particular club out in L.A. Devastated.

T.J. said...

Is 343rd nationally in defensive efficiency bad?

rob said...

there are worse

Whitney said...

7.1%??? No chance that we are 0.2 percentage points less likely??

TR said...

71 is the new 69! At least it was back in ‘95.

zman said...

But not 67.

Whitney said...

So after all the chatter for months, is anyone actually going to Charleston for the tournament?

It was far more conducive for GTBers to attend when it was in Richmond year after year. The irony, of course, is that we bitched that they were essentially home games for VCU (and UofR before that). Now that there are no more Richmond schools in the conference, they moved the tourney to Charleston... home of the current #1 seed. Neat.

rob said...

the current plan is to wait to see if the tribe makes the final and then descend en masse

rootsminer said...

I just went to pay a speeding ticket, and the guy next to me at the clerk's office was a told he had to pay $6900 to proceed with his appeal. I looked at him and said "nice". He didn't seem enthused.

Shlara said...

If we make the finals, I’m flying down to Charleston on Tuesday

rob said...

just had a twitter interaction with ken pomeroy. i think this might be destiny.

mr kq said...

It's allwayyys bittersweet.

Dave said...

hey gheorghies!

early time counts because i started drinking at 4

Whitney said...

Marls is gonna bring the hammer down on you, Dave.

rob said...

schools are closed, as are the federal government and my office, on account of ~69mph wind gusts here in the dmv. batten down the hatches, lads and lasses, winter's coming.

zman said...

According to zson it's Dr. Seuss's birthday. So happy birthday Dr. Seuss.

rob said...

it's also the birthday of a gheorghie who's a seuss-like creature

rob said...

nathan knight named second-team all-caa, david cohn and justin pierce named third-team. and now you know.

zman said...

"IF YOU DON’T HAVE STEEL, YOU DON’T HAVE A COUNTRY!"

Is that a reference to George the Animal or Remington?

Shlara said...

Just landed at DCA in these winds
Sub-optimal flying experience

zman said...

Interestingly, the US is the world's largest buyer of steel. So it makes total sense that we want steel to be more expensive, right?

Whitney said...

I was just driving on the bridge part of the Monitor-Merrimac Bridge Tunnel. A Wal-Mart 18-wheeler in the right lane went up on his right 9 wheels due to way high winds, and if he went over, he was tumbling into the water. I was right behind him. I was dead certain he was going over.

I froze and cursed and wondered what I would have to do to rescue him from his inverted truck submerging into the whitecapped waves. Thank the lord he came back down on all 18 wheels. Be safe out there, people.

Marls said...

Happy Birthday Dave you early “Hey Gheorghies” schmuck.

Stay safe in the wind VA Gheorghies. May the wind always be at your back as long as it’s not your own.

Danimal said...

Robbie - your Old 97's playing near mi case on 4/22 at a pretty cool venue - Ponte Vedra Concert Hall (an old church). Anyone interested?

Whitney said...

Squeaky, you okay up there?

TR said...

NJ Transit is giving me a special kinda shit sandwich this evening. And I don’t really drink anymore. How do normal folks handle stress?