Tomorrow, third-seeded William & Mary (18-11, 10-6 in the CAA) takes on sixth-seeded College of Charleston (14-17, 6-10) in the first round of the 2014 CAA Basketball Tournament. If you're looking for a prediction, you've probably come to the wrong spot. In the first place, we're not really known for the "accuracy" of our "prognostication". And more importantly, this game is a complete crapshoot, dependent almost entirely on one thing:
How well will William & Mary shoot the ball?
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| Rebound! |
On the other side of the ball, W&M doesn't rebound (last in the CAA in Reb%) nor defend (worst defensive points-per-possession in the league) particularly well.
Meanwhile, Charleston is the CAA's best defensive team, and second in the league in Reb%. The Cougars are also reasonably awful on offense, near the bottom of the conference in most measures. The two teams are funhouse mirror images.
In the first meeting between the two teams this season, W&M rode a sizzling second-half shooting performance to a 74-63 home win. The Tribe shot 55.1% from the floor, and 53.8% from long-distance to overcome a nine-point halftime deficit.
The second game was more slaughterhouse than funhouse. The Tribe shot 37.3% from the floor (2-16 from deep), got outrebounded, 36-18, and let the Cougars (who, as we know, are for shit on offense) hit on 64.2% of their shots (80%(!) in the second half, when C of C scored 51 points). Charleston won, 87-54, in what turned out to be the most lopsided result in CAA play this season.
And so I submit to you once again, this game comes down to W&M's ability to put the biscuit in the basket. I have no way to know how to predict that variable.
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| Canyon's Small for a D-1 Player |
Both teams are reasonably balanced - Charleston has seven players that average between 6.9 and 12.2 points per game, while four Wrens post double-figure points.
Charleston's a little bit loose with the ball, turning it over 25% more often than their opponents, but W&M's not the kind of team that creates a lot of pressure. At the same time, the Tribe won't likely beat themselves with mistakes - they average a reasonably low 10.4 turnovers/game.
So it comes down to this. If the Tribe makes a high percentage of their shots, they'll win. We've mentioned that, right?
We won't spend any time on the elephant over there in the corner wearing the NCAA Tournament banner. W&M's the third seed, winners of 18 games, with as much offensive talent as any team in the CAA. In a league where fully half of all regular-season games were decided by seven points or fewer, there isn't a team in the bunch that couldn't get hot enough to win three in a row. (Hofstra and UNCW ain't winning four in a row, but still.)
It's a simple game.
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37 comments:
mark, thornton is a junior. only the third first-team all-caa player in tribe history. first since 2004.
My mistake. Still impressive. Another question: Is the award that Rusthoven won the CAA equivalent of the Lady Bing Trophy?
it is. tribesmen have won four of the last five of those.
I saw your boy the VCU Octopus set the A10 steals record last night.
yep - barring injury, he's gonna shatter the ncaa record next year.
Florida's bringing in 11 juniors for recruiting visits this weekend as part of the Kentucky game. One of those juniors is Alonzo Mourning's kid. Already 6'9".
This isn't great for team chemistry, I'd guess.
http://www.tallahassee.com/article/20140307/NEWS/140307007
I was a little worried about the fan turnout for Florida-Kentucky game tomorrow because its Spring Break but reports are that students are already camping out for tickets. Sometimes I forget UF is full of nerds now.
weber has 284 career steals. the ncaa record is 385 (give you $2 if you can name the lead swiper. the top two, actually, are from the same college.)
vcu has at least 2 more games this year (a-10 tourney, ncaa tourney), and more likely 3-4. at 3.5 steals/game, let's give him a conservative 5 to end the year at 289.
at his pace, he'll need 27 games next year to break the record.
rob, are you quoting yourself in the opening line?
US MNT hosting Nigeria in Jax this June - mini-summit?
Can I do some bitching/crying in search of some sympathy? Ok. Am recovering from my calf injury nicely. Ran 4 easy on wed...no probs. Today, I sneezed and tweaked the eff out of my back which stems from minor herniated disc diagnosed last year. You read that correctly - I sneezed. Can't stand up straight. Just received anti-inflammatory and steroid shots which typically get me 5-6 mos of good mo-jo. Something feels different about this one though, and not good different.
i am, dave. that's impressive recall.
and danimal, i bet mark's got some medicinal remedies.
Danimal- that sucks about your back. I'd be interested in hitting up US-Nigeria in Jax.
Speaking of Jacksonville. Wonder why the Jaguars are so bad. Well, this might have something to do with it. They currently only have one player left on their roster from the 2007-2010 drafts. That's impressive front office incompetence.
it's almost like Ernie Grunfeld is the GM of the Jags
gene smith, former gm - where is he now? my guess is he's running someone's banana stand, maybe.
telling ya though - time to buy jags stock is right now. who wants on the j train?! whoo whoo!
A friend was working in Africa and was living in a tent in Nigeria at one point. He brought a girl back to his tent and when he pulled out a condom she said "What's that?" Turns out she had never SEEN a condom before, let alone used one. He did some quick mental calculations and asked the girl to leave his tent.
i wonder if she'll be at the game.
"Worst in CAA at rebounding" doesn't quite tell the story. The team is 324th in the country at rebounding, out of (I think) 315 schools.
The Nicks circa 1990 would outrebound the Tribe. Maybe Dave alone.
I can commiserate, Danimal. I had my second cortisone shot in two years on my shoulder two weeks ago. And I've had five calf strains in the last two months in my right calf/Achilles. Wine is helping at the moment.
Zman's surgery scar takes the cake. He should post that photo as a post. It's pretty gnarly.
whichever team picks up darren sproles is my new favorite squad. unless it's a team i don't like.
tribe favored by 1.5 tomorrow night. i've got no idea what will happen, except to say that this one scares the shit out of me. on the flip side, w&m is undefeated when the teej and i are in the building this season.
Sproles to the R**skins. Time is a flat circle.
you just blew my mind, z. boom.
A wide-eyed can't sleep hi Gheorghies. Watching shark tank. Anyone see that tonight? Very cool bicycle light system invented by a really smart cat.
And t.r.... You've quite possibly had one calf strain that hasn't fully recovered, I would guess. Have you had a doc check it out?
On the back front (see what I did there) I went from a 2 out of 10 to a 6 or 7 with a shot of toradol and a steroid. I followed t.r.s prescription of wine and added a couple of percocets for good measure. Slept for some. And now...here I am! Hi.
there's pretty much no funnier phrase in the english language than "the nicks circa 1990."
also, cat just made machaca meat for tacos. this sounds very familiar to me. did the baja bean company serve machaca burritos (once again, talking circa 1990).
Danimal may be on to something b/c the "let it rest for five days then plow back into regular activities" treatment has failed. Four times in a row. Maybe my stubborn Polish carcass will learn one of these days.
i snapped a small muscle in my calf a few years ago playing soccer and it took forever to heal. you never know when it's better. swim and bike and do lame stuff for a few weeks and then test it in something low impact. also, get one of those hard giant roller things, they help a lot with warm up and stretching, especially if you hate to stretch.
there's almost nothing better than chocolate milk after strenuous physical exertion. and that's...one to grow on.
Meathead at the gym rocking the zip up hoodie half zipped up. With no shirt underneath. Laundry day, I guess.
Rob's right. Former Gator Jack Youngblood has a chocolate milk commercial that runs around here making the same point. And Jack Youngblood is a Bawse.
If The Donald does not make changes to course set up next year no one will come.
How many syllables are in the word squirrel?
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