Like most (if not all) of you, I've entered the bracket. And like my occasional attempts to play the lottery, I'm well aware that I won't win. As I've said before, the entertainment value inherent in thinking about what I'd do with lottery winnings makes the $5 investment well worth it. In the case of the Billion Dollar Bracket, it doesn't even cost anything. Why wouldn't I give it a (long, long, long) shot?
No, I'm not going to win. Neither are you. But I'm intrigued by a thought experiment that the Quicken/Yahoo bracket contest has provoked. I first saw it on Andy Glockner's Twitter feed (@andyglockner), but it's seen broad play since. As Glockner contemplated it:
As the mathematically inclined in our midst would tell us, a 60% chance at the $1B yields an expected value of $600 million. Rationally, we know that $600m > $25m, which suggests that we should choose to roll the dice.
I'm here to tell you that 90% of Americans would take the bird in hand. I'm one of them. $25 million is life-changing, I'm-never-working-another-day-at-something-I-don't-love, set-my-family-up-for-generations money. (Even if it's actually only $13 million post-tax, you could put blow $3m on hookers and booze and still sock $10m away to earn $500k a year in interest with relative ease.) Different people obviously have different thresholds - I've got simple tastes, as you know.
Choosing to take the risk on on the big payday (even assuming a $1m consolation prize) yields a 40% chance of spending the rest of your life wondering what might have been. The psychological impact of that seems a heavy burden. But so does the regret that would follow if your team won the final game, which would mean you essentially made a $575m mistake.
I guess for me, at some point, enough is enough. Call it a $575m stress-reduction premium. And give me my money.
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I think that's an overly conservative hooker budget.
And playing the " What's your cash-out number?" game is always very fun. I've said that I would retire, buy a house near a beach, drive a convertible and coach high school soccer. (and enrich hookers, of course)
Funny, TR, I was thinking the hooker/booze number was high. Of course, tastes vary. I'm gonna run some numbers on that.
So there's a 48% tax bracket? wtf?
I'd take the dough, for sure. I'd guess that the # of people that would do the same would be closer to between 96-98%.
I'd take the $25 M, grow my beard out to absurd lengths and never talk to any of you schlubs again.
Like you said, you have to pay to play the lottery. For this, a free shot at a trillion million to one odds is still a free shot.
Taking away all of its fake drama and contrived moments, I always found the gameshow Deal or No Deal to be a fascinating social experiment. Nearly every contestant went for more suitcases when they had six figures (or close to) in hand by way of an "offer". It really demonstrated the optimism (or lack of risk aversion) of much of society (assuming the contestants were representative thereof).
I would take the $25M (and probably considerably less). Of course, I would probably just take the proceeds and invest them conservatively. Maybe let the wife buy new drapes for the master bedroom.
here's another question: if you're an investor, how much would you offer someone to give you his/her perfect entry with one game remaining? in theory, anything less than $600m would yield a positive expected return.
I would require $690 million.
hahahaha....Mayhugh said "drapes"
I always wondered how/if choices would differ if Deal/No Deal was not produced in front of a live audience and broadcast on television. In other words, how often was the choice to go for more cash due to peer pressure?
What about the show "Tough Choices"? You can "make out with your mom" OR you can lick the cow's ass?
Rob - easy peazy - you structure contingencies into the offer. E.g. X amount of money if the bracket stays perfect and Y amount regardless. I would make Y relatively low and I think I'd be willing to split to give the person a slightly greater amount if the thing pays off. Perhaps it's not maximizing your potential return, but it's maximizing your chances of getting to yes.
would you rather eat a pile of poop that tasted like chocolate ice cream, or a pile of chocolate ice cream that tasted like poop?
You guys watch Deal Or No Deal? How old are you? Don't you have cable?
I'm sure nobody wants/cares to hear me bitch about Florida's bracket draw but I'm thoroughly annoyed they drew Kansas at the 2 seed in their region. Easily the highest ceiling of the 2 seeds this year. Would've preferred any of the others, in this order: Nova, Michigan, Wisconsin.
glockner's in the process of doing a bracket selection alternative on twitter that assumes each team gets to choose its slot in the field. teams are ranked 1-68, and they pick their slot in order. top four seeds get one chance to 'block' another team's selection. it's a pretty cool idea.
I was under the impression there would be no math.
Chevy!
And how 'bout them Red Devils!? They needed a 3-goal win today (sorta) to advance, and Moyes gave the lineup a much-needed tune-up.
At least we fans have something to look forward to this Spring.
tr, you'd do my job as a hobby? that's hysterical.
i would take the 25 million and NOT coach high school soccer. practice and home games are fun but away games are torturous. the bus is loud, smelly and induces nausea.
i am trying an interesting experiment tonight. i took my kids snowboarding today, but i'm still going to play wednesday night hoops. i predict an injury but i'm still going. really stupid.
I just booked my tickets for Africa this July: Kenya, Zanzibar & Kilimanjaro. Very excited
that's really cool. i'm pretty tight with kenya's ambassador to the u.s. let me know if there's anything you need .
can't wait until Greg, Elwood and Jake return from their exclusive three year tour of Europe, Scandinavia and the sub continent...
oh the stories they'll tell
Who's got an 11 or 12 that's going to win two games? Nebraska? Talk to me Goose.
tennessee
of course, if the vols get shut out in this play-in game, that might not be a good pick
Umm Tennessee might want to score 1 basket in this first game to get that run going.
Mr. Wendal.
I can't say enough bad things about my Apple Airport Express. It's complete shite. It can't even function as a doorstop because it's too flimsy.
tournament filler posted
oh yeah, I'd take the 25M in a heartbeat
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