Wednesday, August 31, 2011

Fun with Statistics

On Football Eve, we thought it appropriate to revisit one of our more controversial, if brilliant, prognostications. Way back in April, when the lockout was the talk of the land and labor lawyers got more screen time than John Clayton's ponytail, I told you that Greg McElroy would be a better pro than Cam Newton.

And while I hate to say I told you so, with a substantial sample size to evaluate, the facts seem incontrovertible. McElroy's completed 33 of 53 passes for 306 yards and 2 touchdowns, good for a 90.6 passer rating. Meanwhile, Newton's only connected on 21 of 52 attempts for 275 yards and no scores. His 57.8 rating hovers right around the JaMarcus Line.

Normally reticent Jets coach Rex Ryan was effusive in his praise of his rookie signal-caller after a hard-fought loss to the Texans. “I like McElroy,” Ryan said. “It looked like for a minute to me we were trying to find out how tough that kid was, and I think we found out.” McElroy was sacked 5 times in the game.

Newton, meanwhile, has some work to do, according to ESPN blogger Christopher Harris. "Cam Newton's preseason performance against the Cincinnati Bengals last Thursday was a quart of sour milk with a spoonful of sugar sprinkled in," wrote Harris, describing Newton's performance against the Bengals as "a series of misreads and poor throws".

We're not quite ready to call this one yet, but with a number of precincts reporting, our peerless record of fearless forecasting seems to be intact.

18 comments:

zman said...

This post needs some box and whisker charts.

Whitney said...

Rob, it's a bit of a stretch to use the word "incontrovertible" during the NFL preseason. Also, a caveat that one QB is on a playoff-caliber team and one QB is on a team that finished dead last in 2010 is only fair.

Not that you're wrong, or that anyone around here doubted you when you first said it. I'd just let this one simmer a bit before claiming victory. There's still plenty of meat on that bone. You take this home, throw it in a pot, add some broth, a potato . . . baby, you've got a stew going.

T.J. said...

College football starts tonight. Kind of.

rob said...

russell wilson, baby!

Whitney said...

Local sportswriter Bob Molinaro sees your college football opening and pees all over it.

Some highlights...

"the pros have it all over the college product"

"The NFL leads off with a showdown between the past two Super Bowl champions, while college ball serves up Oregon vs. LSU, a couple of schools currently under investigation for breaking NCAA rules."

"College fans talk all the time about how their favorite game is superior to the NFL because of its great traditions and rituals. From what I can tell, 'tradition' means that the powerhouse college teams build their success on the principle of skirting or mutilating the rules. 'Rituals' refer to the time-honored practice of scouring the landscape for the weakest possible opening-day nonconference opponent, and a few more after that.'

"The schedule means too much in big-time college football. Everybody understands this, yet the sport goes merrily on its way rewarding teams that feast on low-protein diets."

"Inside the football echo chamber, there will be the usual griping again this season about the BCS and the need for playoffs, as if we've never heard that before. Meanwhile, conference musical chairs have made a mockery of college sports. The Big Ten starts the season with 12 teams after Nebraska left the Big 12, which now is down to 10 teams. And if that's not silly enough, wait until next season when Texas Christian University joins the Big East."

"The approach of another NFL season creates sparks, while the kickoff to the college game produces a familiar odor."


Hey, Bob, news flash... college football doesn't have a 4-week preseason to get their engines revved. And since any one loss means far more than in the NFL, for decades now programs are reluctant to schedule marquee opponents early. It's almost as if you haven't been writing the same sports column for going on 40 years...

Sorry, I cannot mask my disdain for his work.

rob said...

good ol' molly

zman said...

No one skirts or mutilates the rules in the NFL. Just ask Belichick's cameraman or Shawne Merriman's pharmacist.

Dave said...

my basement is bone dry!

Whitney said...

So is your creative blogbank lately. Come on, we count on you and the Teej for irreverence here.

rob said...

summer dave isn't

T.J. said...

I might have some useless afternoon filler for us...

rob said...

what happened to television month?

Marls said...

This post is incontrovertably racist.

T.J. said...

That's the filler, dummy.

rob said...

gtbers will be happy to know that robbie hummel has one more year of eligibility. his knees may only have a few weeks.

rob said...

marls, it's auburnist. biiiig difference.

TR said...

McElroy has looked pretty good so far. I will be at the game tonight. Looks like McElroy will go the distance tonight, with Sanchez resting and Brunell injured.

I'll be scouting how good a job Vick does feigning interest from the sideline. Will be a good warm-up for his first injury in mid-October.

TR said...

McElroy has looked pretty good so far. I will be at the game tonight. Looks like McElroy will go the distance tonight, with Sanchez resting and Brunell injured.

I'll be scouting how good a job Vick does feigning interest from the sideline. Will be a good warm-up for his first injury in mid-October.