G:TB's Exhaustive(ing?)ly Wordy 2022 Men's World Cup Preview

On a quadrennial basis, people from around the globe find their way here, drawn by a desire for a deeply researched, fact-checked, impartial preview of the World Cup of men's soccer. Quickly disabused, they linger for a minute trying to figure out what exactly they've found. Most of them leave pretty hastily after that, but some stick around, confused, amused, and bemused. These are our people.

We've already spent time on the United States and its roster. Today we'll talk about the other teams and stories we're paying attention to, and we'll offer a dashed-off prediction or two.

Before we do that, though, a bit of a musing on the nature of sports and the cognitive dissonance necessary to enjoy this cycle's biggest sporting event on the planet. From the moment FIFA awarded this event to Qatar in 2010, the corruption associated with the decision was obvious and brazen. At the time, Qatar had one stadium capable of meeting FIFA standards for international competition, a severe lack of hotel and hospitality infrastructure, a miserable human rights record, and a predatory service economy model that gave employers near total power over migrant workers' lives. The Gulf nation did have something going for it: a metric fuckton of money and a willingness to spread it around.

According to some international observers, things have gotten better in Qatar for the 90% of its population that are not citizens. The kafala system of employer-based sponsorship for migrant workers has been relaxed (though not abandoned), and migrant workers have a bit more flexibility. It remains to be seen whether this is just a fig leaf or whether it's a lasting reform. We're not holding our breath, nor are the allegedly 6,500 migrant workers who have perished during Qatar's mad dash of construction.

Qatar has also publicly softened its position on the illegality of homosexuality. Publicly being the operative word there. Still, the United Kingdom's Foreign Secretary, James Cleverly went all 'don't say gay' in cautioning queer British fans about exercising discretion while attending the World Cup. Telling if typically understated line from The Guardian's story on the Secretary's remarks: "Cleverly said Qatar was willing to make compromises to allow people it would normally persecute [emphasis mine] to attend the tournament, which kicks off on 20 November.

We could go on. The simple fact of the matter is that the World Cup should never have been awarded to Qatar. It's been a cynically gross enterprise from the moment it was contemplated. (Once again, I commend to you the podcast World Corrupt for a deep dive that's entertaining, amusing, and also unsparing.) 

And yet, hundreds of millions of us are going to watch as much of it as we can - one more example of our willingness to compartmentalize to support the jerseys we love. FIFA knew we would, in the end.

It's times like these when I appreciate the players, fans, and administrators who at least acknowledge the charade before participating in it. Manchester United and Portugal's Bruno Fernandes said this weekend, "We know the surroundings of the World Cup, what has been in the past few weeks, past few months, about the people that have died on the construction of the stadiums. We are not happy about that at all. We want football to be for everyone, everyone has to be included and involved in a World Cup because a World Cup is the world. It's for everyone, it doesn't matter who. These kind of things I think should not happen at any time. But for a World Cup it's more than football, it's a party for fans, players, something that's a joy to watch, should be done in a better way."

The Danish national team's kit supplier, Hummel, designed muted kits with no visible logos, saying in part, “We don’t wish to be visible during a tournament that has cost thousands of people their lives. We support the Danish national team all the way, but that isn’t the same as supporting Qatar as a host nation. We believe that sport should bring people together. And when it doesn’t, we want to make a statement." Ironically, or perhaps not, the black version of the Danish kit has become one of the breakout top-sellers in the pre-Cup runup.

Fans across Germany's Bundesliga unveiled banners calling for a fan boycott of the games in Qatar over the weekend, as well. The elephant in the room ain't exactly hiding in the corner. We can hope, at least, that the world's most famous athletes may use their platforms over the coming month in a positive fashion.

I don't expect Lionel Messi to do that. Not that he's a bad guy, just that he's known for his shyness and preference to stay out of the limelight off the pitch. On it, he's in the twilight of one of the greatest careers the sport has ever known. 2022 will mark his fifth and surely final appearance at the sport's pinnacle event. La Albiceleste have never won a Cup with Messi in the squad, falling just short in 2014 in a finals loss to Germany. Messi finally got major hardware last year as Argentina won the 2021 Copa America. There will be a lot of sentimental backing for Argentina - they'll be a lot of fans' second-favorite squad, and at +550 they trail only Brazil (+400) in the oddsmakers' book.

Messi's the headliner for me, which really isn't a stretch. But there are some other players I'll be watching, for various reasons. Here's one story from each of the eight groups that has my attention:

Group A

Sadio Mané, Senegal

Mané is at once among the game's elite players and its most humble. The Bayern Munich forward, late of Liverpool, famously donates a significant portion of his income to charitable causes in his home country. After being photographed in 2020 carrying a cracked iPhone, he responded to a question about it by saying, "Why would I want ten Ferraris, 20 diamond watches, or two planes? What will these objects do for me and for the world? I was hungry, and I had to work in the field; I survived hard times, played football barefooted, I did not have an education and many other things, but today with what I earn thanks to football, I can help my people."

Mané was injured in Bayern's final pre-Cup match, which puts my $10 bet on Senegal at +9000 in some jeopardy. But my Senegal Mané jersey arrived this week, which I think should bring good luck to one of the game's great dudes.

Group B

Mehdi Taremi, Iran

In the Western world, there's been a ton of focus on the English-speaking combatants in this group. England, Wales, and the U.S. are the story. Iran has been an afterthought. But Team Melli are coached by the legendary Carlos Queiroz and led in attack by Taremi, who's been tearing it up for Porto, with six goals in 12 Portuguese Premeira League matches and five in five in the Champions League as Porto earned passage to the knockout rounds.

The Iranian team will also be worth watching for their actions in support of dissidents in their homeland. Several players have already been vocally supportive of antigovernment protestors, even as the Iranian government cracks down. Doing so at a World Cup would be an act of significant bravery.

Group C

Hirving "Chucky" Lozano, Mexico

Lozano is arguably Mexico's most accomplished player. He's a fixture in the starting XI for Serie A-leading Napoli, having scored three and assisted three in 14 contests. The winger is in the prime of his career, and so long as he's not torturing the U.S., I can root for him to do good things for El Tri.

Group D

Christian Eriksen, Denmark

This is one of the tournament's most remarkable on-field stories. On June 12, 2020, Denmark's talismanic midfielder suffered cardiac arrest on the pitch during a UEFA Championships match against Finland and nearly died. The video from that day is difficult to watch, and his teammates' agony wrenching. On-site medical personnel did incredible work to save him, but his footballing career was widely thought to be over.

Instead, Eriksen returned to competition, first with Brentford in the Premier League and now with Manchester United. At the same time, he rejoined the Danish men's national team and helped lead them to the World Cup. He'll be one of the feel-good stories of the tournament, but don't let that obscure the Danes' real chance to make a run.

Group E

Rodri, Spain

This dude is criminally underrated. All he does is staunchly and steadfastly hold the middle for Manchester City while the team's formidable attacking talent marauds into the opponent's final third. I like Spain to make a deep run, and for all the press other players will get, Rodri is the steel.

Group F

Alphonso Davies, Canada

Oh! Canada! Our neighbors to the north are one of the surprise stories of this cycle, qualifying for the World Cup for the first time since 1986 and topping CONCACAF to boot. Davies is clearly their best player, and may well be the best left back in the world at the moment. The Bayern Munich star has been nursing a right hamstring injury, and any chance the Maple Leafs have of advancing out of their group hinges on his health. 

Davies missed Canada's last few qualifying matches, which gave the world an opportunity to see him rooting for his compatriots - start at 1:50, watch for a few minutes. Think this doesn't mean anything to these wealthy men?:

Group G

Aleksandar Mitrovic, Serbia

In Fulham, the fans sing "Mitro's on fire" when the big Serb tallies for the Whites. He's become a club legend after banging in 43 goals in 46 appearances in all competitions last year as Fulham earned promotion to the Premier League. He followed that up by scoring nine in 12 matches this season, good for fourth in the league. 

Mitrovic is vital to Serbia's chances in Qatar. He's scored 14 goals in 15 matches over the past two years for The Eagles. Of cautionary note for Fulham fans, he enters the World Cup with a nagging ankle injury that's kept him out of the lineup for a few weeks. Serbia coach Dragan Stojkovic has said he plans to use Mitro even if he's not at full strength. Like most Fulham fans, I'll be watching Serbia's matches with my fingers well crossed.

Group H

Son Heung-Min, South Korea

Continuing the theme of injured stars, Tottenham's pacy winger took an elbow to the face ten days ago and suffered a broken cheekbone. He intends to play, and if he's effective, South Korea can be dangerous. And boy do I hope he plays. Our love for Sonny has been well-established. He's one of the world's most joyous athletes.

If you're still reading at this point, you probably should reconsider your life choices. I'm unemployed and don't have anything better to do with my time. What's your excuse?

But since you're still here, we'll go out in a blaze of glory with predictions about the way the tournament will play out. These are informed, to a degree, but I'll be lying if I didn't cop to at least a little bit of sentimentality. If the goons at FIFA force us to watch a tournament hosted by a repressive regime at a time of year that compromises player health, at least the scriptwriters can offer us some escapist fantasy.

Group A

1. Netherlands

2. Senegal

3. Ecuador

4. Qatar

Some of that wishful thinking right off the bat, in the guise of my wagering interest in Senegal. They're a strong side, though, having won the most recent African Cup of Nations. In Chelsea's Edouard Mendy they have a keeper capable of carrying a team. 

Group B

1. England

2. USA

3. Wales

4. Iran

Don't be surprised with any order in this group. Yes, England are the strongest side on paper, but their recent international form has been dreadful. I do truly believe that the U.S. are more talented than Wales - the two countries' opening match is so vital to both.

Group C

1. Argentina

2. Poland

3. Mexico

4. Saudi Arabia

Argentina have not lost in 35 consecutive international matches. Hard to see that streak ending in the group stage. Poland have a history of flameouts in big tournaments, but Mexico's in a bit of disarray. The Saudis suck.

Group D

1. France

2. Denmark

3. Tunisia

4. Australia

Top two could easily flip here - Denmark beat France twice recently in UEFA Nations League play, and the French are without N'Golo Kante and Paul Pogba. But to be the man, you gotta beat the man.

Group E

1. Spain

2. Germany

3. Japan

4. Costa Rica

Been a weird year or two for the Germans. They have not clicked with the mechanical precision one is accustomed to from Der Mannschaft. One would be wise to remember England legend Gary Lineker's description of soccer, though: "Football is a simple game. Twenty-two men chase a ball for 90 minutes and at the end, the Germans always win." Japan could surprise a bunch of folks in this group. Costa Rica, though, I feel pretty good about that prediction.

Group F

1. Belgium

2. Canada

3. Croatia

4. Morocco

We are admittedly out over our skis here. Canada making it to the knockouts would be an upset, but John Herdman's team is much younger where it counts than either Belgium or Croatia, which could make a difference in a year where players are coming into the World Cup having played a lot of soccer.

Group G

1. Brazil

2. Serbia

3. Switzerland

4. Cameroon

The Brazilians are absolutely loaded. They should skate through. The second slot is a dogfight, and Serbia's got some dogs.

Group H

1. Ghana

2. Uruguay

3. Portugal

4. South Korea

This is an unabashed pick against Portugal, because I despise Cristiano Ronaldo and his preening me-first mien. The team is old, too, so it could go down this way. Ghana winning would be an upset, but it's long past time for an African nation to boss something.

Round of 16

Netherlands over U.S.A. - we're not good enough to beat the Oranje

Argentina over Denmark - this will be an awesome match for a neutral to watch

Spain over Canada - see above, only replace Oranje with Spaniards

Brazil over Uruguay - tricky one for the Seleção against their CONMEBOL rivals

Senegal over England - boom

France over Poland - Euro on Euro violence

Belgium over Germany - the Red Devils have the best player in the world right now in Kevin de Bruyne

Ghana over Serbia - he's reaaaching again, Mom

Quarterfinals

Argentina over Netherlands - gonna be a cracker, this

Spain over Brazil - Rodri makes the difference

Senegal over France - Mané cutting a swath through European competition and making Senegal the first ever African side to make the World Cup semifinals

Belgium over Ghana - dream dies for the other African quarterfinalist

Semifinals

Argentina over Spain

Belgium over Senegal

Final

Argentina over Belgium, and Messi walks off the international stage the unquestioned GOAT. Sentimental, for sure. Plausible, also that.

The World Cup kicks off a week from yesterday with homestanding Qatar taking on Ecuador at 11:00 am Eastern. Matches will be played at 5:00, 8:00, 11:00, and 2:00 Eastern, a mostly-friendly set of viewing windows. The U.S. takes on Wales to get its Cup started a week from today at 2:00 EDT. 

I believe that we will win. At least once.