Gheorghasbord: Election Season

Easing into this content machine thing with a handful of early, research-free observations about last night's midterm elections.

First, and most joyously, Fettermaaaaaaan! We've been publicly in the tank for Pennsylvania's unconventional Lieutenant Governor since precisely two years ago today. We were one of the first major outlets to endorse him in his race for the Senate seat opened up by the retirement of Republican Pat Toomey. And despite suffering a stroke during the race and a corresponding halting performance in the lone debate against New Jersey's own Mehmet Oz, Fetterman won election fairly comfortably. His campaign made it a point to visit every county in Pennsylvania, and ran a social-savvy operation that hammered his opponent's opportunism and lack of understanding of the needs of most of the commonwealth's citizens. This was the result that most mattered to me, and I'm excited to see what Fetterman brings to Washington. I'm afraid the stroke likely means I won't get my Fetterman for President tattoo.

Which brings us to another one to watch. Wes Moore easily won Maryland's gubernatorial race, with nearly 60% of the vote. One the one hand, beating a Nazi who gleefully supported That Fucking Guy's election denial isn't that significant an achievement. On the other, a 44 year-old black dude with a funny name (Wesley Watende Omari Moore) now has a national platform and a background that includes combat leadership (in Afghanistan), community service (Moore ran a foundation dedicated to alleviating challenges caused by poverty in New York City), government service (as a White House Fellow working for Condoleeza Rice), and corporate success (as an investment banker). Moore's C.V. doesn't exactly parallel that of the 44th President, but he's a telegenic and charismatic young black guy with an immigrant parent (his mother is Jamaican). You can be damn sure the media will start making some comparisons.

If we're to move beyond the nation's seemingly hopeless and intractable division, the kids are gonna have to take the reins. The average age of the members of the House of Representatives at the beginning of this term was 58.4. Which ain't all that representative. Enter Generation Z, for the first time ever an a national level, with 25 year-old Maxwell Frost winning election in Florida's 10th Congressional District (in and around Orlando). Frost is Puerto Rican/Cuban, and has a long (for his age) history of fighting gun violence, calling his cohort the "mass shooting generation". He was the national organizing director for March for Our Lives. While observers will know that I support Frost's politics, I think it's vital that young folks from all political persuasions gain more access to the levers of power.

If you think the House skews old, lemme tell you about the Senate. At the start of the 117th Congress, the upper chamber's members averaged 63 years of age. And yesterday, the second-oldest of those Senators was reelected. Chuck Grassley, who won his closest reelection campaign ever, will be 95 years old when his term expires. As will Dianne Feinstein, subject to more than a few whispers about losing several miles off her fastball. The President will turn 80 next November. God bless all of these septa/octogenarians for their service, and how 'bout you let somebodies else take a turn? 

In other disappointing news, the oleaginous J.D. Vance won a Senate seat in Ohio over the righteous Tim Ryan. Despite the GOP's significant structural advantages in the state and the national Democratic Party's refusal to give Ryan anything other than token support, Vance's margin will wind up around 6%. If the Dems had done anything to support Ryan, who'd be a terrific Senator, instead of burning piles of cash supporting longshot candidates in Florida, Texas, Georgia, and elsewhere, they might've had a chance in this one. Dems gonna Dem.

Come ON, Adam Frisch!

From oleaginous to odious, a bit of good news that might get even better as vote tallies are finalized: it's possible and even likely that Kari Lake (AZ governor), Lauren Boebert (CO 3rd), and Sarah Palin (AK at-large) will go down to defeat. All three are vocal Trumpists and election deniers, and Lake in particular is a dangerous combination of attractive, charismatic, and willing to say absolutely anything to gain power. It also appears that election deniers pursuing Secretary of State roles in key swing states like Arizona and Nevada will go down to defeat. 

At the moment, it appears possible that Democratic candidates will win Senate races in Arizona (Mark Kelly) and Nevada (Catherine Cortez Masto), though the latter is very much a toss-up. If the D's win those races, it'll guarantee they'll retain control of the Senate. If not, Georgia will become the center of the political universe. Incumbent Raphael Warnock has a slight lead over human bobblehead Herschel Walker, but it doesn't seem likely that Warnock will break the 50% threshold necessary to avoid a runoff (Libertarian Chase Oliver is hovering around 2%). If Warnock fails to clear that bar, the election heads to a mano a loco mano showdown in December. Warnock won his seat in the first place in a special runoff election in 2020 against Kelly Loeffler. 

Alabama and Vermont sent their first women to the Senate and House, respectively. Massachusetts elected an openly lesbian women to the Governor's office, a first in American politics. Moore became just the third African-American governor in American history (and ain't that a fucking shame on all of us). Abortion rights won massive victories in places expected (Vermont) and less so (Kentucky). More states legalized recreational marijuana. It was a decent night for progressives, despite some setbacks. 

The GOP will retake control of the House, but by a much smaller margin than many anticipated before the election. Most pundits won't acknowledge this, but Biden's Democratic Party had one of the best midterm election performances in history. A combination of voters highly motivated by the Supreme Court's Dobbs decision overturning Roe v. Wade and independents turned off by the GOP's continuing embrace of our freak-ass former President* turned a potential red wave into a gentle tide. The fever didn't break, but the firewalls seem to have held. For now.