Monday, October 27, 2014

If Not Now, When? If Not Us, Who? Or Is It Whom?

In March, gutted, we posted this:

"But W&M has made three finals in seven years after a recent history devoid even of hope. We're brutally disappointed today, but there will be a tomorrow. As Tony Shaver said last night, "The thing I get angry about is people trying to define whether or not you made the NCAA Tournament as whether you had a good year. If our goal is to make the NCAA Tournament, we can move into a conference that has the same academic restrictions we have. We choose to play at a higher level. I think that's admirable to be honest. We're not going to let the NCAA Tournament define our team." (We're grateful to Defiantly Dutch for finding us that quote.)

In 2003, the New York Yankees came from behind to beat the Boston Red Sox in Game 7 of the American League Championship Series on an Aaron Boone walkoff homerun. That's the worst I ever felt after a sporting event. Second worst, I guess. But one year later, that pain was long forgotten."

Today, on the cusp of a new season, hope's eternal wellspring is renewed, and we're a few short months away from one year later. Time will tell whether we're Kevin Millar or Charlie Brown. (I've asked TJ to frost his tips, Millar-style, to bring the Wrens luck. Still awaiting his answer.)

Hoping to give a few more fan bases that look.
I've spent the last few days trying to figure out a unique angle on this campaign, but the dominant storyline is so obvious as to be unavoidable. There's only one angle. The greatest player in W&M history plays his last season in green and gold. Last March, Marcus Thornton was a quarter of an inch from sending the Tribe to its first NCAA Tournament ever. This season is about him.

Thornton begins his senior season with 1,519 points, best in school history over the first three seasons of a player's career. He trails Chet Giermak, W&M's all-time top scorer, by 532. While it's not a foregone conclusion, Thornton scored 599 points last year, so Giermak's mark is in sight. Thornton also enters the season second in Tribe history with 223 made three-pointers, trailing David Schneider's knuckling jumper by 55. Marcus is also in the top 5 among returning NCAA Division 1 players in career threes.

Beyond the numbers, though, Thornton's the most electric player ever to wear a Tribe uniform, a gym rat who's added a new dimension to his game in each of his seasons in Williamsburg. When we checked in on him this summer, his even-keeled, no drama demeanor was augmented with a bit of an edge, a hardness in the final minutes of a decidedly informal game that we'd only seen glimpses of before. As one of only two seniors on what's suddenly a very young Tribe team, Thornton's going to be called on to lead in a very different way.

The CAA's beat writers tapped Thornton as the league's preseason Player of the Year, while picking the Tribe to finish second behind Northeastern. Though last year's conference Rookie of the Year, Omar Prewitt, joined Thornton on the all-league first team, and Tony Shaver's team is just one year removed from a 20-win season and a CAA finals appearance, there are those that question such lofty expectations. W&M lost six seniors, including career 1,000-point scorers Tim Rusthoven and Brandon Britt, and athletic wing Kyle Gaillard.

All hands on deck on defense around the rim this season.
Despite Thornton's reassuring presence, there's no escaping the fact that this will be a very different flock of Wrens than the one we've watched grow up over the past few seasons. W&M has a roster with excellent size - no eligible player is listed as shorter than 6'4". Ironically, with all that height, the team's biggest question mark will be the frontcourt. 6'9" junior Sean Sheldon averaged 3.4 points and 3.0 boards a game backing up Rusthoven last season, and while he's added muscle (and adopted a Rusthoven-esque longer hairstyle), he'll be hard-pressed to match the departed center's production. Senior Tom Schalk and redshirt freshman Jack Whitman fill out (in a manner of speaking) W&M's interior options. Deep, we ain't.

The size and skill of the guards and wings on Shaver's roster, though, offer the veteran coach a fascinating menu of potential options. The projected opening-day lineup pairs 6'4" redshirt freshman Michael Schlotman with Thornton in the back court, while 6'6" soph wing Prewitt, and hard-working 6'5" junior Terry Tarpey join Sheldon along the front line. 6'6" freshman Oliver Tot is a long-armed, strong guard with international experience, having played for the Slovakian men's national team. 6'5" guard Daniel Dixon blossomed as a defensive stopper and occasional scorer during his freshman season. 6'8" freshman wing Paul Rowley needs to gain weight and learn to create his own shot, but he's deadly from deep, and if he can prove he can defend his position, may get some run.

Tot jokes? Why yes, we have some of those.
As is usually the case for a Tony Shaver team, we expect this group to be able to score on just about anyone, especially given the versatility of the unit, though we'll be looking in the early weeks of the season to see who emerges as a reliable third scoring option. The challenge for these Wrens, though, will be on the boards, and in the defensive end. Teams with talented big men will be a tall order (my bad) for the Tribe's youthful front court. Northeastern's Scott Eatherton, in particular, has to be salivating at the chance to take on this roster twice. Tarpey's a tough, athletic hardass, and led the team in rebounding last season, but he's going to be playing the four at 6'5".

We're less than three weeks away from the season-opener at (gulp) Florida. The non-conference schedule offers several decent tests, all on the road (the Tribe plays at the Gators, UNC, Richmond, and ODU), and a handful of winnable confidence-builders. More than most years, the out of conference slate is a feeling out opportunity. We'll be perfectly happy with 5-5, as long as it looks like progress, and we've figured out how we're going defend the post.

This Tribe season starts for all practical purposes on January 3, when W&M hosts the College of Charleston. We know better than to make predictions about our team, and we know from painful recent experience the pitfalls that come with even the most mildly positive expectations for Tribe hoops. But as the hashtag goes, #inmarcuswetrust, now more than ever, if only for a few more months.

33 comments:

zman said...

I assume Jack Whitman is Dick Whitman's son.

Danimal said...

Slim's nephew.

Clarence said...

Dick + Anna '64


Woulda been way cooler 5 years later, but she was dead by then.

rob said...

dick whitman the obscure professional baseballer?

zman said...

I think Dick + Anna '69 would be a bit too Oedipal for AMC.

T.J. said...

#1bid4wmtribe

rob said...

how did this comment thread make it to noon without clarence riffing on the phrase 'feeling out opportunity' used in the post?

Marls said...

Oedipus and the Mama's Boys?

Clarence said...

I'm getting old. Missed that one, Rob. Sorry, buddy.

Clarence said...

So, Rob, how many games do the Tribe win this season?

rob said...

man, i don't know. i think the o/u is 17, which breaks down to 5-5 in the non-con and 11-7 in the league, and 1 win in the caa tourney. anything between 12 and 22 is possible. if pressed, i'd take the over. they've got as much talent as just about anyone in the league. if they stay healthy, they can win 20 again.

TR said...

Oh brother. Is it that time of the year when we're stuck reading about this awful b-ball team again?

rob said...

for the next six months, tr. all wrens, all the time.

Marls said...

We could discuss the awful Knicks or the always fun Jets....

TR said...

I haven't been a Knicks fan for two years! They are dead to me as long as Fat Jim owns them. I should get around to that post...

Clarence said...

We do have a Skins/Cowboys game to discuss/wager on. Dallas by 10. I would give those points 10 times out of 10.

Clarence said...

There's so much wrong with this it's hard to know where to begin:

Chicago Bears defensive end Lamarr Houston ruptured his right ACL while celebrating a sack of backup quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo during the fourth quarter of the club's 51-23 loss to the New England Patriots on Sunday, Bears general manager Phil Emery confirmed Monday.

mayhugh said...

I would normally say that Washington might be able to keep it close, if only because it seems like they always play NFC East opponents close for three quarters or so. But this team - she is not good. I see them having limited opportunities on offense, with the Cowboy ground game chugging along, and Colt being unable to do anything with those few opportunities.

What would the odds have to be for you to gamble $100 on them to win outright?

Clarence said...

I agree with your assessment, mayhugh -- historically, it's like the worse team in the WAS/DAL showdowns has better odds. But our guys suck and are getting worse.

1. The Cowboys will shirley score 3 or 7 on each possession of the first half. And they do better in the 2nd half.

2. We will cede a special teams TD. Book it.

3. Colt McCoy. Gahhhh. 16-39, 156 yds, 0 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 1 fumble lost seems about right.

Thank goodness for Dale's Pale Ale, Jack Daniel's, some home cooked chili with some homegrown habaneros, chicken wings, and several hometown chums who will endure the game with me at Skins HQ.

Hail. Hell.

zman said...

Clarence grows his own.

Shlara said...

I'm clearing my calendar for March to attend college tournament basketball games.

Go Tribe

mr kq said...

I am not that impressed with who Dallas has beaten. Are they really a 6-1 team? Well yeah, they are, but I propose that their D still sucks and is there for the taking. Didn't we all think they would blow this year? Didn't we all think The Stork had brain damage?

Colt and D-Jax light it up, Romo throws two picks, Kerrigan causes a fumble, maybe returns it JJ style. Skins win.

Thank goodness for DC Brau Corruption, red wine, KQ's awesome home cooking, and my buddy Bobo snoring on the couch next to me. Hails yeah.

Marls said...

Skins lookin' good. I think they win this thing.

TR said...

Where are the Rachel Glandorf sightings?

Danimal said...

Regardless of what happens here, nice work by kq.
Here is where the beginning of the end begins for Dallas.

mr kq said...

They are who we thought they were!!

zman said...

I forgot who Rachel glandorf is. Google image search is fabulous.

Marls said...

Sports Junkies just started checking flights to KC in February.

zman said...

Romo barely even acknowledged McCoy. He was talking to someone else when McCoy did the whole "good game" thing.

mr kq said...

Great game. Next two games Minnesota and Jax. Just sayin.

mr kq said...

And by Jax I mean TB.

Marls said...

And by KC I mean AZ.

Clarence said...

And by the Skins are going to lose by more than 10 I mean they're going to win outright.