I didn’t grow up around gambling or people who did. Casinos and sports books were road trips. I never made a lot of money, so I didn’t feel like I had enough to squander. And that’s what it felt like I would have done, since gambling requires knowledge and a mindset that I don’t possess.
In addition to his sports book betting, he also participates in a weekly NFL pool at a local saloon. Approximately 60 people, $20 entry fee, eight-game card with point spreads, Monday night game point total tiebreaker. Winner gets $800, rest of the money goes into a kitty for a season-ending party.
He said his picks had been dismal all season, said, why don’t you pick for me this week? He said he’d split with me if I won. I said, sure, why not, though I’d likely be terrible, as I’ve never bothered with it. He said, you can’t be any worse than me.
I dove in. Statistical research. Matchup strengths. Teams’ ATS (against the spread) home and away. Trends. Injury reports. Perused a bunch of sites with picks, sifted through various recommendations. He thought my picks and explanations reasonable. He submitted them without change. Spoiler: I’m not building up to a dramatic windfall conclusion. I went 4-4.
I researched and reasoned as best I can and sent picks. He’s made a few changes, but mostly gone with my picks. I’ve gone 16-13-3 the past four weeks. The curious part of all this is that I’m suddenly more interested in results. I check scores more frequently, and a couple of weeks back, even though I had ZERO dollars riding on outcomes, I was legit peeved at the Dolphins, Vikings and Rams for scuffling along and general ineptitude and not covering. I was annoyed that the Bears allowed the dreadful Lions to score three touchdowns in the last 12 minutes. Makes no sense.
Several of you may recall that I wrote in this space recently that I had become increasingly contemptuous of and disinterested in the NFL for various reasons. Now, here I am parsing betting lines and researching teams and calling up gamecasts on Sundays. I’m either compartmentalizing or engaging in some A-level rationalization. Yes, the league needs a reckoning and a good scrubbing, but the competition is compelling and entertaining. Whatever gets you through, Scooter.
Maybe I see it as a thought exercise. Objectively, after watching games for 50 years and covering them professionally for 35, I know that any-damn-thing can happen and predicting outcomes is folly, particularly when you factor in point spreads. I also know that I have neither the experience nor information that the “sharps” do. I wouldn’t be as dispassionate about winning and especially losing money as necessary. I’d like to think, however, that because I have an idea about what I’m watching and a ton of information at my disposal, that I can make reasonable choices and be moderately successful.
But each week the answer is, naaaaah.
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14 comments:
Very smart folks have created mathematical models to generally split the action financially 50/50 between the two positions and take a % for the service. The amount of information available has created a very efficient sports betting market at this point. The sharps will look to take advantage of that system by exploiting public biases, but even then, a professional gambler is aiming for about a 55% winning percentage. Given that with juice paid to the book the break even point is about 53%, we are not talking about a ton of margin. Professional gamblers require volume of bets to make money. For them, expected profit/outcome is much more important than overall winning percentage. It is about getting as many bets in with a small (perceived) advantage in order to maximize expected returns.
To paraphrase Col. Jessup, I have neither the time nor the inclination to do any of that. I still gamble, but go in with the idea that I’m essentially paying to make the game I bet on more enjoyable. (Hey, for the next two hours I’m an huge UTEP fan!) Alternatively, I will use sports bets as an emotional hedge. Betting 50 bucks on the Yankees mid season at 12-1 to win the World Series takes the sting out if they win and is viewed as a payment to the baseball gods if they lose.
what marls said. in the same way playing a large lottery offers a frisson of entertainment value, betting on individual games does the same, especially at the de minimis sums i wager.
we betting on the Tribe tonight?
I'll completely echo Marls' sentiment, but use a different cinematic paraphrase.
Sometimes I will throw down a buck on something that... well, that buck coming back to me is against all odds, but it's the chance I've gotta take. Thinking about a big payday is dumb fun. At the same time, as he said and OBX Dave has witnessed, smarter bets that will only pay a few bucks simply provide rooting interest, which can make all the difference.
I jumped in on FanDuel when it became legal in Virginia about 18 months ago. I quickly got out to a +$900 cushion over the first few months. Gambling is so easy! Yep, I blew it all with a series of ill-advised parlays and wishful thinkings. All of which proves what you already know. There ain't no beating the house over the long haul.
Enjoy!
I've never wagered on a sporting contest. After losing a succession of bets to Whitney last Thursday, I probably should continue to refrain. Though maybe I'm due....
oh, yeah, teej.
Tim is much better informed than me about the behind-the-curtain workings of the gambling industry. Gracias for the insight.
My buddy also pointed out that point spreads are as much about attracting bettors and money as they are about the books determining which team should win and by how much. Hence, lines move based on the amount of money wagered on each team. If a ton of money comes in for a favorite, the house likely increases the point spread to attract money for the underdog in order to balance its risk. Vice versa if an underdog is heavily bet.
That said, the guess is that the books did well last weekend on Cowboys-Packers. The Cowboys were 5-point favorites, playing well, against a Green Bay team that looked a mess. Only reason line wasn't bigger was because game was in Green Bay. Dallas also routinely draws outsized interest from wagering and non-wagering folks. National profile and all that. Surely, the Cowboys would win by at least a touchdown, right? Ummm, no. Heck, Dallas blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. House keeps large Dallas money, pays out smaller money to Packers bettors.
tribe are 3-point underdogs at american. yurphhh.
Can’t bet on the Tribe until you get into the District. VA law prohibits betting on college games involving VA schools.
I'm also guessing no booze sold on campus?
Negative, not at Bender.
dagggggger
Dagger J’s was the name of the bar in the basement of Fordham’s Rose Hill gym. A bunch of lammies were overserved there during and after watching the Tribe get their butts kicked.
teej good, tribe bad. gonna be a long season for the wrens.
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