Tuesday, November 08, 2016

Election Day Open Thread (Alternatively Titled, It's the End of the World As We Know It, and I Feel Fine)

Intellectually, I feel pretty good this morning. Barring a cataclysmic, systematic, and unprecedented failure on the part of the American political polling establishment, the facts suggest that Hillary Clinton should be elected President, and this godforsaken shitshow of an election will come to its only sane conclusion.

Emotionally, I'm a goddamned trainwreck. Even as we at G:TB understood the animating forces behind the Trump phenomenon from early on, I never thought it'd get this far. And even if the short-fingered vulgarian loses badly, we have a reckoning coming as a nation.

If he wins? I'm honestly not prepared to think about that.

So come in to the comments below and vent or cheer, depending on the news of the day. On the bright side, we might know pretty early on whether we need to drink heavily. If HRC wins Florida, it's all over. If that state turns out to be a clusterfuck (which would never happen, so why worry?), it'll be a long night.

155 comments:

Danimal said...

Going to be a big Hilary win. It just is. And Trump ain't winning Florida.

Got my vote in this a.m. Our precinct was packed with a 30 min line at 7 a.m.

Clarence said...

Tonight, as has been the case for many months, will be ridiculous and fraught with thoughts of doomsday, but certainly intriguing.

Danimal, you gotta learn how to spell her name if she's gonna be c-in-c.

Danimal said...

Sorry. Hilery.

Clarence said...

I think you were thinking of Hilary Swank. Or Swank magazine.

A mnemonic device is to think of Sir Edmund Hillary. The guy who mounted Everest. So think of mounting, and think of Hillary.

For a fascinating look at mountaineering and the finest team ever assembled, watch this tidbit on the group who scaled both peaks of Kilimanjaro.

Marls said...

Stop the pork. Vote Halalery

Danimal said...

On the topic of peaks, I recommend everyone mount Twin Peaks, mentioned last week here at GTB. Yesterday I was going through receipts to hand over to our gal here and noticed they don't use "Twin Peaks" on the printout, but something else that sounds more fine dining'y. Well played Twin Peaks, well played! Anything that avoids the raised eyebrow from our ever judging receipt reviewer is a feather in your cap, or cleavage rather.

zman said...

Marls!!!

zman said...

I thought it was Hilrey, like Britney.

Whitney said...

Or Whitney?

Clarence said...

Hilary, Hillary or Hilleary is a given and family name, derived from the Latin hilarius meaning "cheerful", from hilaris, "cheerful, merry" which comes from the Greek ἱλαρός (hilaros), "cheerful, merry", which in turn comes from ἵλαος (hilaos), "propitious, gracious".


Something of a misnomer, though maybe not tonight if all goes a certain way

Squeaky said...

I get the joy of flying into DCA first thing in the AM tomorrow. Should be fun after the election.

TR said...

Both Donny and the political fembot are here in NYC today. Yippee.

When I travel and want a safe sports bar, I usually turn to a Tilted Kilt or Twin Peaks. Food is always decent, TVs are all around, and breasts.

TR said...

Out of curiosity, what channels do you all watch on political nights like this? Fox and MSNBC are both unwatchable. I want to like CNN b/c Anderson Cooper is solid, but the ever-growing panel is brutal.

I may stick w/ Lester on NBC or Pelley on CBS.

zman said...

501 on Fios is insanely local and might be the most palatable option. Otherwise I think you have to go old school--NBC, CBS, ABC. They're biased but not as much as the newjack networks.

Danimal said...

Will probably just turn the volume off and go with an old sonny and sam playback.

Lots of channel flipping here. I can't stick to one, but if James Carville is on, his hosting show may get a little more eye time. I like that kooky old sumbitch! He crazy ya'll!



Shlara said...

TR--if you want to avoid annoying pundits go to PBS. The News Hour team will be on tonight.

Another alternative is Desus + Mero on Vice

Marls said...

So Trump filed a lawsuit to toss the votes of legitimate voters in Nevada claiming that they should of shut the doors to those on line? I know it's not news, but the idea that you should suppress legitimate voters on an actual voting day is just fucking crazy.

Marls said...

kayleigh mcenany had the shoulders stolen off her dress.

She went to Harvard Law and Georgetown and yet everything she says is basically absent of logic.

rob said...

marls, did you see the video of the judge swatting that complaint away like dikembe mutombo? i'd like zman to start a recurring feature on her.

zman said...

12 years ago if I told you DJ Trump would win an electoral vote some day, you would've had me committed. Bringing things full circle, Arnold Schwarzeneggar will host the next season of The Apprentice.

Shlara said...

I realize that the Pantsuit Nation FB group is not a place you guys would likely hang out, especially the right-leaning dudes and guys who tune out politics.

As this crazy election season comes to a close, I strongly encourage you to wander through some of the posts in this group. It is incredibly inspiring and heart-warming and reminded me that there are a lot of people out there who aren't fueled by hate and anger.

rob said...

come on, florida

TR said...

Congrats to Little Marco.

TR said...

John King's entire career now is being the guy who pushes the video map for CNN.

T.J. said...

or, as Wolf calls it, the "Magic Wall"

TR said...

He's not even being featured. He's just in the background, sadly pushing buttons by himself.

Shlara said...

Wolf is giving my anxieties more anxieties
I may need to stick with CBS

mayhugh said...

Wolf thinks he's calling a horse race. He need to calm the Eff down.

zman said...

This national vote count is making me nervous.

Mark said...

Medical marijuana passes Florida in a landslide. Time to get my business license.

rob said...

yeah, i'm getting nervous again. the fuck is wrong with you, florida? no offense.

rob said...

got that part right, florida. don't fuck up the rest.

Shlara said...

There's no one screaming on PBS
And I've consumed half a bag of Ghirardelli chocolate in the last hour

TR said...

First to 69 electoral votes will win.

zman said...

Fios1 is all NJ all the time. They're doing a deep dive into the NJ state senate race in various districts. Actually discussing the laws and reforms thereto.

Mark said...

What's going on VA? Get it together up there.

Shlara said...

Did everyone miss Chris Matthews talking about porn as a distraction?
Or just me?

http://theconcourse.deadspin.com/chris-matthews-john-f-kennedy-would-go-watch-porn-ins-1788727907?utm_campaign=socialflow_deadspin_twitter&utm_source=deadspin_twitter&utm_medium=socialflow

zman said...

Scratch that. It was the house race. Bunch of guys I never heard of.

Mark said...

Not sure why you'd ever count on Florida in an election. A state full of geriatrics, crazies and geriatric crazies.

It's gonna come down to South Florida (Dade, Broward, Palm Beach counties), IMO.

rob said...

i'm legit terrified at this point. trump could easily win now.

Mark said...

Yep. Shit has shifted dramatically in the past hour.

TR said...

Tim Kaine proving himself to be kinda worthless right now.

Wife and I are making "rural juror" jokes every time John King talks about rural areas. I miss 30 Rock.

zman said...

David Brooks might swallow his tongue.

zman said...

On Fox News they said to keep and eye on Broward County as the minorities might show up late. Can't make that up.

Mark said...

Hillary ain't winning Florida.

zman said...

Minnesota WTF?

Squeaky said...

We are doomed. Hopefully MA will vote to legalize marijuana. I might just have to start smoking my life away.

rob said...

i'm stunned, and about to puke.

TR said...

Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Michigan will a eal the deal for Donnie. VA and NH won't matter.

Oh yeah, stock futures just started plunging. Sweet.

Mark said...

Third party candidates made a huge difference in a number of key states. Why vote third party?

Shlara said...

This is a really bad episode of Veep

T.J. said...

remain calm. keep the faith. looks like Northern Virginia saved HRC

Mark said...

I saw dow futures were down 500. That's bad, right?

Many of us underestimated how many closet Trump voters were out there. A lot more sexist/racist/jingoistic folks out there than just those who advertise it. Ugh.

zman said...

We still have CA OR and WA. But this is not helping my ulcer.

TR said...

Virginia can't save the Dems. FL/NC/MI/OH represent 78 electoral votes and will carry the GOP.

John King is having a big night.

T.J. said...

the Detroit Free Press oddly called MI for Hillary 15 mins ago. which seems...odd. and wrong.

zman said...

Our next president's most recent experience could be as a game show host.

rob said...

jesus fucking christ.

Mark said...

Uh...Pennsylvania to Trump? If so...Game. Blouses.

TR said...

Futures down worse than first announced. S&P 500 futures down 3.5%

T.J. said...

this is bad

Mark said...

This feels over.

Shlara said...

Oh
My
God

Squeaky said...

Just said futures down 600.

Donna said...

We're kind of freaking out, too, but take a look at 538 election coverage right now. Still giving it to HRC -- 282 votes. Even if he wins FL, OH, NC, as long as she wins PA, and the Western states that she's expected....
It's promising and calming. At least for a minute. Holy crap may they be right!!

zman said...

He's up by 11 points in Ohio.

Squeaky said...

fivethirtyeight has it 51% chance for Clinton, 48% Trump. We are so screwed.

rob said...

yeah, it's done. we're fucked. can't wait to explain to my kids how this happened.

Marls said...

Ok folks. There is still a path for Hil. VA and PA are essential but they should happen.

Marls said...

Gonna be a long night.

Marls said...

Nice Job VA.

zman said...

Bright side: four more years of Alex Baldwin as Trump.

Squeaky said...

fivethirtyeight model now 55% Trump 45% Clinton.

TR said...

I listened to a shit ton of political podcasts this fall, including 538 and Keeping it 1600. What those Dems always forgot and glossed over was just how horrendous a candidate Hillary was. No charisma, the ruthless Clinton machine, etc. America's collective disdain for her was the overlooked factor.

This is Brexit all over again. All the smartypants pollsters had a 3-4 point lead. Nate Silver spit the bit badly.

Donna said...

Yep, as I typed that, it flipped. Son. Of. A. Bitch.

zman said...

Stuart Stevens and the rest of PBS talking like Trump won this already. Thanks to the Pence pick.

zman said...

Trump will put his face on all the currency.

Shlara said...

dow futures now down 750??

zman said...

Do they confirm Garland immediately or let Trump make a pick?

Squeaky said...

So many levels of fuckitude.

Dave said...

so it's a coin flip? bar was packed, no trump supporters . . . probably anecdotal stats

TR said...

Say goodbye to the Affordable Care Act if Republicans take over the Senate.

Marls said...

Sorry Dave. NJ was called hours ago.

Marls said...

The path to the presidency runs through PA & AZ.

Marls said...

Republicans hold the senate for 2 years no doubt.

Shlara said...

The health care thing is real talk for me.
I work for myself and have a little pre-existing condition called cancer.
No Obamacare = bad news for me.

Marls said...

TGrec, Sara and I will adopt you.

zman said...

Trump got FL. Christ on a cross.

T.J. said...

and Florida goes to Trump
ugh

Whitney said...

Sad to say, Shlara's won't be the only story that gets told if the ACA is repealed. Every day the papers will be littered with unnecessary casualties. Can't wait.

This is once again of people not thinking things through. TR is right, Brexit II: Electric Boogaloo. Good luck, people.

Shlara said...

Thanks Marls!!!

T.J. said...

why aren't the pundits freaking out more about this? HE WILL THROW YOU ASSHOLES IN JAIL IF HE WINS

zman said...

Remember right after the Billy Bush video, pundits were punditing whether HRC should try to run up the score on Election Day? How long ago was that? Four weeks?

zman said...

Stuart Stevens: "I remember when the Republican Party was against Putin and 35% to 40% trade barriers."

zman said...

NC to Trump. Jeez.

zman said...

He needs 54 more.

Whitney said...

And McCrory is winning. NC deserves what they get.

Marls said...

Goodnight to the republic.

zman said...

The First Lady is a former nude model. Ron and Nancy would not approve.

Whitney said...

Home Depot is all out of pitchforks and torches. Damn it all.

zman said...

The silent majority really exists?

Marls said...

You might want to remove that asswashing terlet ZMan. The trumpers think you are a soft man.

T.J. said...

fuuuuuuuuuuuck

zman said...

zson calls him Trumpet and he will be ripshit tomorrow. He's all in on HRC.

T.J. said...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dsx2vdn7gpY

zman said...

He needs twenty-six more. Twenty. Six.

Whitney said...

Smart people: the most significant impact on the lives of those that read and write on this blog from a Trump presidency is ___________.

zman said...

The Supreme Court for the next 8-10 years. Maybe more if one of the older leftIsts steps down and he gets two appointees.

Also, God knows what he'll do the financial markets, foreign countries he doesn't like, free speech ... lots of stuff.

Shlara said...

Ditto to Zman's comments
Financial markets + any biz selling goods or in a supply chain selling stuff in this country.
If he makes any progress to limit trade, that is going to be a disaster for all of us, regardless of who you work for.

Marls said...

The most significant change will be the slow erosion of the bedrock elements of the republic. Comity and compromise will die a slow death. We are on a slow path to turning the reigns over of the country over to a autocratic leader because the institutions of democracy have failed. The American experiment did not die tonight, but it revealed its weakness. The eulogy will be written over the next few years as we slowly capitulate to the lowest common denominator after "leaders" like Trump do not deliver on their promises and blame the downtrodden for their failures.

Donna said...

I made the mistake a couple days ago of saying to my husband in front of children that we'd have to move out of country if Trump won...when things started looking bad tonight and our 13 year old headed to bed, he said to me that when he awakes, if T. In fact has won, we better be making our plans for Europe. He sees it as an opp for an adventure! Oops!! Maybe we shouldn't?!

Donna said...

I meant, should there. Should!!

Whitney said...

You know who'd better have some indigestion tonight? Joe Biden.

zman said...

Can't take it out on Biden. Extenuating circumstances.

Stuart Stevens is killing it. He's the only taking head to insinuate that Trump's showing tonight is due to "emotions that we've felt should not be legitimized" i.e. racism.

zman said...

52 million Trump voters. I'm stunned.

Whitney said...

So where does that leave us, Z? Legitimized bigotry is an abomination. We need Lincoln II. Don't make me do this.

zman said...

What happens if they both get 269? Aside from lots of clicking?

zman said...

I think it's safe to say that Trump's platform has been abominable Whit. He openly proposes discriminating based on race, religion, county of origin, all the stuff we're supposed to be against.

Whitney said...

No question. But people like that are supposed to be vilified, mocked, and kicked to the curb. Not vilified, mocked, and voted into office.

Lincoln II

Marls said...

Went to bed several hours ago hoping to wake up and find there have been a miraculous reversal. Alas, it was not to be. WTF?

Danimal said...

Went to bed at 9 expecting as always predicted....landslide. this is bad. But you knew that.

zman said...

Lincoln MKZ

zman said...

Maybe it was all an act and he will govern as an open minded and compassionate guy.

Squeaky said...

Zman, bawhahaha.

I can't wait to see mr. president campaigning for schilling against Warren when her seat is up.

zman said...

We've had vicious kings and we've had idiot kings, but I don't know if we've ever been cursed with a vicious idiot boy king!

TR said...

Fed gets put in a real bind here. Interest rates will spike simply b/c of the "risk off" trade. That will make folks ask if inflation is being priced in, which pressures the Fed to raise rates. But a mini-recession appears inevitable as all Americans w/ spending power stand around slack-jawed at what just happened. So the Fed could actually set recession into motion.

Contrarian stock buying opportunity - wait for the market to roll today, and then buy Financials. Preferably a bank ETF. Widening yield spreads are good for them.

Danimal said...

To Z's comment...we could only be so fortunate. Though I will say his speech at 3 am was the first ever where he showed some humility, grace, and sincerity. It was terrific. And amazing.

Dave said...

whew. just put a sentence up on SoD. that was a tough one to write, but i'm trying to look on the bright side.

Whitney said...

Dave, we may get another terrific Green Day album out of it as well.

I'm stunned stupid.

Clarence for President in 2020.

Danimal said...

Just reading that Sarah Palin is being mentioned for possible Cabinet post, so there's that. But it's the Dept of the Interior so no harm can be done there right?

Dave said...

nice, i predicted that in my sentence!

Shlara said...

America surprised me last night, in a sad and terrible way.
I woke up to catch the speech--still seems like a bad dream.
And I cannot wrap my head around what a Trump-led White House + R Congress will look like day-to-day over the next two years.
Are they are going to agree?
And TR's analysis of the markets is just frightening.

TR said...

KBE is the Bank ETF.

My boss, who is a seasoned Health Care analyst covering Hospitals, downgraded her entire industry this morning. Ballsy move, but sometimes you have to just grab life by the p*ssy.

Shlara said...

uh, Megan Kelly is co-hosting with Kelly Ripa this morning...

T.J. said...

dark, rainy, bleak morning here in DC

seems about right

Danimal said...

same here in florida, which is a bit ironic. don't ya think?

zman said...

I wonder if this means we need to revise our compliance training materials, at least with respect to sexual harassment.

rob said...

my kids went to bed in tears last night. this morning, they were laughing when i left the house. the sun eventually came up.

we're a resilient country (a bit misguided, perhaps, at the moment). four years goes by quickly. last night's result sucks in ways that we can't even yet understand, but nothing is forever.

goddamn, we'll miss the obamas, though.

kevy said...

cory booker in 2020? thoughts?

rob said...

elizabeth warren. let's go all the damn way.

Clarence said...

- C L A R E N C E -

Hindsight and Clarence in 2020

rob said...

someone post some dipshittery. the world needs it now more than ever.

Danimal said...

now more than ever
the world needs love

TR said...

Recreational weed is now legal in Nevada!?!? That state needed more vices to offer tourists.

Dave said...

i'm taking my kids to get their flu shots today, before trump bans them.

also, i was thinking of a vacation ban on all the red states-- vote with my leisure dollars-- i was pleased that new mexico and colorado went blue, and make for a nice western outpost, and my family already frequents vermont quite often, but north carolina is a tough one-- we'd have to move the obft somewhere blue. or bring all our groceries and alcohol from virginia.

Dave said...

border station is in virginia, so that works. southland is in NC

Shlara said...

I tweeted this yesterday b/c it was fascinating.
Now, it's making sense for the "why" question I keep asking today.
This election was city folk vs country folk b/c we have stopped talking to each other.
We need to fix that and engage in conversation.
I'm going to do that, after I wallow for a few days.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/11/08/a-new-theory-for-why-trump-voters-are-so-angry-that-actually-makes-sense/?wpisrc=nl_wonk&wpmm=1

Danimal said...

I had some good filler but as I began to take a picture of the range rover with "Just Divorced" written on the back window, the female driver of the vehicle approached. So I retreated. It elicited a chuckle though.

TR said...

Yield on 10-Yr Treasuries up almost a quarter percent today. Hope you got that mortgage refi or home equity loan done in the summer...

Danimal said...

what's happenin with the bitcoin today? strong to very strong?

rob said...

like everything else in my life, tr, i procrastinated on that.

Clarence said...

bitcoin to bitchin is just one letter change

bitcoin camaro

* CLARENCE 2020 *
"No, mine's Clarence"

zman said...

I did. 3.25% baby!

rob said...

usmnt/mexico to start the hex on friday. maybe this nausea will have subsided by then.

Clarence said...

Ohhhh, Hexico

Had double-digits' worth of Modelo Especials last night in a show of "they're not rapists and murderers." Must've pissed off the Silver Bullet contingent.