We're No. 69! San Diego State Edition

A college basketball program with a rich, recent postseason history that currently sits among the top three in a respected league normally wouldn’t have to worry about its NCAA Tournament status. That is, if the team was a member of a Power Four conference or the Big East. Leagues outside the Favored Five, however, often find themselves scrambling to get extra teams into the 68-team field. 

Which brings us to San Diego State. The Aztecs have been regular NCAA participants over the past two decades, even making the 2023 national championship game, where they lost to UConn. Depending on whose prospective bracket you look at, SDS is either just in or just out of the field, and the consensus is that they “have work to do.” 

2026 Pac 12 Tournament bracket

The Aztecs are a member of the Mountain West Conference, which has been well represented in the tournament in recent years – at least three at-large bids in each of the last four tournaments. Though bracketology gerbils seem to think league presence will be light when the field is announced next month in its last lap before a realignment exodus (more on that in a moment). San Diego State doesn’t have a gaudy record, owing to a challenging schedule and an underclass-heavy roster, though veteran coach Brian Dutcher has a deep and athletic group that defends typically well and can score at a high level. NCAA Net rankings and advanced analytics have SDS in the mid-40s, squarely on the bubble. 

The Aztecs head into the home stretch seeking their 17th Mountain West title before they and four other MW schools bolt for the Pac-12 this summer. The Pac-12 imploded a couple years ago after raids and exits for the Big Ten and Big 12 and was left with only Washington State and Oregon State. The reconstituted Pac-12 will include five former Mountain West schools and national hoops power Gonzaga from the West Coast Conference. 

Recent history: Fourteen NCAA Tournament appearances since 2002, with four trips to the Sweet 16 and the ’23 national title game. Their best team might have been 2019-20, when they went 30-2 but the pandemic scuttled the NCAA Tournament. 

Mascot/nickname profile: Students chose the Aztec nickname in 1925, and its mascot is an Aztec warrior formerly known as “Monty Montezuma,” whose name was retired because it was deemed racist and culturally insensitive. Puzzlement is understandable in wondering how and why a school in southern California chose a nickname from an indigenous society located 1,440 miles away in central Mexico conquered by the Spanish some 400 years earlier, when plenty of other, closer options were available. The Aztec nickname and representation have been debated on campus throughout the 21st century, but faculty and student groups ultimately chose to retain it with various tweaks and education programs. 

Home arena: Viejas Arena (cap. 12,414) is located on campus and opened in 1997. A couple years after its opening, the Viejas Band of Kumeyaay Indians entered into a naming rights agreement with the school, and it’s been known as Viejas Arena ever since. The Aztecs are particularly stout at home, going 103-12 in their last 115 home games and are 147-24 at home (.860) since the start of the 2015-16 season. 

Notable hoops alumni: Kawhi Leonard, Tony Gwynn (yep, *that* Tony Gwynn; baseball HoF’er was an all-conference hoops player at SDS and still holds single-season and career records for assists), Michael Cage, Keshad Johnson (Miami), Malachi Flynn (3 NBA teams, Turkey), Jalen McDaniel (4 NBA teams), Jamaal Franklin (2 NBA teams, China). 

Aztec on the left, Buff on the
right. They grew up doing
gymnastics together. And now
a blog post brings them
together. Small world.

Current season: Aztecs (18-8, 12-4 Mountain West) are tied for second in the league with New Mexico, a game behind Utah State. Ten players average between five and 12.6 points per game, led by 6-5 senior Reese Dixon-Waters (12.6 ppg) and 6-6 junior Miles Byrd (10.8 ppg, 4.4 rpg), and eleven players average double-figure minutes. Through mid-February, the Aztecs were third in the nation in bench scoring at 36.6 ppg. Stats guru Ken Pomeroy has SDS leading the Mountain West in defensive efficiency, two-point FG defense, turnover percentage, steal and block percentage, and No. 2 in effective field goal percentage defense, and among the top 35 in the country in all those categories. 

Reasons to believe: Among the best strength-of-schedule ratings in the nation outside the Bigfoot conferences. A respectable 6-7 record against Quad 1 and 2 opponents. No bad losses, though a November loss to Troy (No. 142) is a blemish. Chances to bolster their argument against Utah State Wednesday at home and fellow bubble resident New Mexico on Saturday. Dutcher (216-76 in nine years) is excellent. 

Reasons to fade them: Not enough wins and dwindling opportunities – only four more regular season games and at most three conference tournament games. An untimely dip that’s seen them lose their last two, though Dutcher’s teams have lost three straight only once, in his first season. The Mountain West is only eighth in conference RPI, and bracket types believe they’ll get two teams at most. Utah State is likely safely in because of its profile, and New Mexico has a slightly better statistical case than the Aztecs. It would behoove the Aztecs to close at least 3-1 and make the conference semis.