Red Flagg

It’s pretty much given that Duke’s Cooper Flagg will exercise his one-and-done rights and declare his intention to ball professionally when the season ends. The freshman is the presumptive No. 1 pick in the upcoming NBA Draft, a kid who exceeded even the lofty expectations surrounding him when he arrived on campus. 

Flagg caused a bit of a stir recently when he said in a piece in The Athletic that he might consider returning to Duke. “Sh*t, I want to come back next year,” was the exact quote. It was a lengthy story, however, and was said in the context of how much he enjoys college and competing for championships at the highest level. Add the fact that the Blue Devils have the No. 1-ranked recruiting class for 2025 on the way, which with Flagg and whomever else returns would make for an embarrassment of riches and presumably increase the fun. 

Few believe he’ll return to school, though the story and Flagg’s remarks ignited the hooperati and various opinionators about what he should do. The majority take is that he should declare for the NBA Draft, because by delaying even one year he could cost himself tens of millions of dollars in the long haul. 

Perhaps, but there’s a case to be made for returning to school for another year, precisely because it potentially benefits him over the long haul, in terms of physical maturity. No one disputes that Flagg can compete at the highest level. He demonstrated that for an entire college season and against NBA players last summer during pre-Olympic workouts. But if he declares for the Draft and turns pro this Spring, he will have jumped from high school and its four-month season, to top-tier college competition and its six-month season, to the NBA and its eight-to-nine month season and 82-plus game grind, all in the span of three years. And he’ll still be a teenager. 

Recall that he re-classified in high school to graduate a year early and enter college at age 17. He doesn’t turn 20 until Dec. 2026. He’s 6-9 and 205 pounds, but his body isn’t yet fully developed, and he’ll still be expected to compete, and excel, daily against grown-ass men. Tall ask. 

There’s no way to accelerate physical maturity, and another year of college would provide a small step in that direction. The financial argument for Flagg to turn pro immediately is compelling. I’ll spare details related to the salary cap and contract structures because 1) I don’t completely understand it, 2) it will rupture attention spans, and 3) the people who devise such systems are often those who love numbers and hate sports and should not be encouraged. The upshot is that rookie draft choices are slotted into early contracts and are not permitted to bargain for comparatively large numbers until three or four years into the league. 

If Flagg returns to Duke, he’d delay eligibility into his second, or so-called “rookie max”, contract. As a guide, last season’s No. 1 draft pick, French teenager Zaccharie Risacher, received a deal from Atlanta worth $57 million over four years, an average of a little over $14 million per season. Maximum contracts are based on a percentage of a team’s total salary cap. Projecting ahead with annual increases, if Flagg enters the NBA next season he will be eligible for an extension in 2029-30 that could pay him $67.8 million per season. 

So, by delaying one year, he could cost himself more than $50 million, the difference between the first year of a max deal and the last of a rookie contract. If his health and productivity hold, a similar dynamic could play out between the end of his second contract and start of a third deal. 

The advent of Name, Image and Likeness (NIL) and player pay have somewhat mitigated the traditional argument for college players to turn pro immediately. The question used to be: “What if he gets hurt and is never the same again and torches his pro career?” But Flagg’s valuation and endorsement deals this season are reported to be in the $4-million range. If he returns to Duke, he is projected to make more than $16 million next season. The decision then becomes whether to jump into the deep end now, or hope that another year’s maturity will benefit him down the line and perhaps help extend his career. 

Implicit in that call is answering the unknowable question: Where might he more likely suffer severe injury, during a college season workload, or in the middle of the nine-month NBA season as a 21-year-old when his body is still developing? Was his recent ankle sprain in the ACC Tournament a one-off or an omen? If he begins the NBA journey this year, there’s no telling what sort of toll it may take on his body by his mid- and late 20s, when he reaches the peak of his earning power. Perhaps he’s a physical outlier and is productive and efficient into his 30s. But should that be assumed for someone at 18? (We pause for a moment to recognize LeBron James, athletic marvel and possible mutant. 

The NBA’s career leading scorer also arrived in the league as a teenager and through talent, will, genetic blessings, self-care and good fortune, elevated himself into the GOAT discussion. At age 40, in his 22nd season, he is still balling at elite level. He averages 25 points, 8 rebounds and 8 assists, while shooting almost 52 percent from the field and 38 percent from 3-point range and playing 35 minutes per game. Consider, too, that he’s played 287 playoff games, the equivalent of 3½ entire seasons on top of the regular calendar payload; one might say he’s actually played 25½ seasons. Enjoy him now, because we will not see his like again.) 

Look, Flagg is going to make generational money regardless of when he turns pro. He and his progeny and extended family will be able to buy boats and bunkers and comforts to navigate our deteriorating landscape for decades to come. They can afford eggs. Any decision he makes requires financial advisors. He may choose “adult” or delay full immersion for a year, and the difference will be “wealthy” or “wealthier.” Pretty good gig.