I don't know if this is wishcasting or manifesting or some sort of masochistic tempting of fate (though I suspect my actions will have no impact on the results of the election - I only have the power to affect Red Sox games), but I'm going to go forth regardless.
As you'll cast your memory back a ways, you'll remember that we called the 2016 election for That Fucking Guy well before nearly anyone else did. I'm accustomed to being right. Just not used to hating myself for it.
In 2020, I was fairly confident that Uncle Joe would win, but that didn't stop me from stress-drinking on election night. And the next several nights until the election was called officially on Saturday. At which point I celebration-drank.
Righteously Pissed Off Women Carry Kamala Harris to the Presidency.
I'm not gonna spend a ton of pixels on detailed analysis. I'm not qualified, there are better outlets for that, and I'm notoriously lazy. But recall that Democrats have nearly universally outperformed polls and historical performance in major elections since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. Understand that the gender gap being reported in early voting is substantial. Know that the Harris campaign has run a broad, disciplined, thoughtful (and not cocky - I still blame you, Robby Mook) race in a short amount of time. Recognize the electoral truism that the campaign that seems to have momentum often wins, that the end-of-race vibes matter, and watch the GOP ticket flailing about defending a squirrel-porn enthusiast and simulating fellatio* at a late-campaign rally. Add to that mix a handful of really wild polls (including Iowa's most trusted pollster finding Harris +3 in their final analysis - I don't think she wins Iowa, but if it's even -3 in Iowa, it's a rout where it matters), and I think there's a comprehensive body of evidence supporting at least a modicum of confidence in the Vice President's chances.
* I swear to God both of those things have happened within the past week.
I do believe that it's a very tight race. As much as it makes me sick to my stomach, the MAGA standard bearer could win. And if he doesn't, I expect nasty shit to go down across the nation. But as God is my witness, I think it goes the other way. From my keyboard to the electoral deity's ears, for my kids and yours.
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15 comments:
how we feelin', america?
Big turnout in Leesburg today. Had to wait in line for the first time in the Old Dominion.
I cast a mixed ballot with Harris at the top and offered support for FO:Whitney, Tim Kaine.
If I had to place a bet, I would probably bet on a Trump victory.
No matter what happens, I am committing to stop vilifying people for who they vote for. These two shit parties have put us in this situation and I’m going to stop judging/blaming my fellow citizens for the shortcomings of our political parties.
My promise is only to myself.
No social media today.
No tuning into news shows.
Trying to avoid election stories in email as I navigate less fraught messages.
Try to breathe easily.
My only online avenue for news today is a little place I like to call Gheorghe.
Gheorghe: The Blog.
I tend to think Trump wins but I live in Florida (and a very Trumpy area of Florida) so my view is skewed for sure. I voted after the gym this morning and was in. and out in 15 minutes. The poll worker as was talking to said the line was huge earlier in the morning. I'll watch coverage tonight after my kid's softball practice. Not that I think we'll have a definitive answer tonight.
i agree with that sentiment, timmy, except to say that i will continue to have no problem vilifying people who express their politics in racist, sexist, and misogynist terms.
Rob, I’m ok with that. After talking with someone and hearing their horrible views feel free to vilify the fuck out of them. I’m just not going to do it because of a yard sign anymore.
I refuse to fall victims to the narrative that the parties, politicians, and media laying down…namely that the 50% of the electorate that does not vote for that corporation’s slate of candidates is a bunch of knuckle dragging, mouth breathing racists OR race baiting anarchists that want to turn the world trans.
I may be mistaken, but I expect that if you actually take time to have a conversation with a yard sign person and listen to their point of view and perspective- in most cases you’ll come to realize that they’re exactly the asshole you assumed they were initially.
I'm willing to continue judging someone who votes for an insurrectionist. Respecting the peaceful transfer of power is a low bar.
FO Whit Tim Kaine had a cameo on SNL this past weekend. Now ya know.
I voted early a couple of weeks ago, lines were long then so am glad to have out of the way. My prediction has changed weekly with the wind. But like Mark, big DJT country for the most part. It's a rarity to see a Kamala sign here on the first coast. Unlike Whit, I'm tuning in this evening....but not staying up late. I will make one prediction, that we won't know who the winner is until Thursday.
We have a few Trump signs round here but mostly Kamala. I saw a guy put out what I thought was a Trump sign, based on the font, but it was a "SOPRANO DANTE" sign with the slogan "THE STRONG SILENT TYPE." Because Jerzy.
Thankfully my HOA does not allow yard signs, but I tend to know the political leanings of most of my neighbors. There are decent folks AND assholes on both sides of the political divide.
Z - I agree that Jan 6th is disqualifying. I think there are a lot of folks that suckle at the teat of conservative media that have been hoodwinked into believing that Jan 6th was righteous. We can whole heartedly disagree, but I’m reserving my real ire for the grifters in the media and political power who are, as a wise FOG:TB emailed me earlier today, stoking “conflict because it sells and turns profit”.
now that latter part is spot on, dr. marls. we need to break the grifto-industrial complex that stands in for facts for too many.
I tend to concur with Rob's outlook on the state of the race, partly because I can't see how trump has expanded his base (maybe with the knuckle dragging mouth breathers), and I think the side filled with motivated women has been doing the actual work required.
I also agree with comments about not vilifying folks for who they support. We obviously have a lot of people who are underinformed, and have been the target of mis or disinformation.
If someone who truly knows better, but is willing to risk democracy for a win, that's another matter.
I honestly don’t know how it’s going to swing. But I’m holding out strong hope that women and young people went and go to the polls. The numbers of early voters is encouraging! And I believe if DJT wins the wretchedness for the world will be ten-fold of what 2016 brought. He’s a lunatic. And all his rhetoric —he doesn’t mean any of it. He’s only in this for him - to stay out of jail and make/keep $. He has no policy positions. It’s the people behind him, and they’re terrifying. At least to women, any minorities otherwise, and to those who aren’t more than middle class. Here’s to hoping! Plus, he’s just plain hateful.
i have hopes but not expectations in the texas senate rate. allred's run a good race, and the state has been trending purplish as it's attracted tech folk from both coasts. i'll be thrilled to see ted fucking cruz thrown out on his slimy ass, but i don't really think it'll happen.
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