Gheorghe Explains: An Election Prediction

I don't know if this is wishcasting or manifesting or some sort of masochistic tempting of fate (though I suspect my actions will have no impact on the results of the election - I only have the power to affect Red Sox games), but I'm going to go forth regardless.

As you'll cast your memory back a ways, you'll remember that we called the 2016 election for That Fucking Guy well before nearly anyone else did. I'm accustomed to being right. Just not used to hating myself for it.

In 2020, I was fairly confident that Uncle Joe would win, but that didn't stop me from stress-drinking on election night. And the next several nights until the election was called officially on Saturday. At which point I celebration-drank. 

Given these bona fides, I suppose I owe you my take on the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. I've crunched the numbers. Read the tea leaves. Consulted the oracle. And here's the headline.

Righteously Pissed Off Women Carry Kamala Harris to the Presidency.

I'm not gonna spend a ton of pixels on detailed analysis. I'm not qualified, there are better outlets for that, and I'm notoriously lazy. But recall that Democrats have nearly universally outperformed polls and historical performance in major elections since the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade. Understand that the gender gap being reported in early voting is substantial. Know that the Harris campaign has run a broad, disciplined, thoughtful (and not cocky - I still blame you, Robby Mook) race in a short amount of time. Recognize the electoral truism that the campaign that seems to have momentum often wins, that the end-of-race vibes matter, and watch the GOP ticket flailing about defending a squirrel-porn enthusiast and simulating fellatio* at a late-campaign rally. Add to that mix a handful of really wild polls (including Iowa's most trusted pollster finding Harris +3 in their final analysis - I don't think she wins Iowa, but if it's even -3 in Iowa, it's a rout where it matters), and I think there's a comprehensive body of evidence supporting at least a modicum of confidence in the Vice President's chances.

* I swear to God both of those things have happened within the past week.

I do believe that it's a very tight race. As much as it makes me sick to my stomach, the MAGA standard bearer could win. And if he doesn't, I expect nasty shit to go down across the nation. But as God is my witness, I think it goes the other way. From my keyboard to the electoral deity's ears, for my kids and yours.