Wrenball: The Hemorrhage

In which an actual professional journalist goes slumming on our beat and finds common cause.

At least they aren’t LSU. That’s about the most charitable assessment of William and Mary’s men’s basketball. After one of the most dismal seasons in program history, the Tribe has seen six players enter the transfer portal, severely testing the notion that “at least it can’t get any worse.”

Four of the top six scorers are gone, including 2021 CAA Rookie of the Year Connor Kochera, and those four played at least 24 minutes per game. A fifth logged 15 minutes a game. Two freshmen and two sophomores are among the departing, so a chunk of what appeared to be the future is out the door. Granted, it’s not as jarring as LSU losing 11 players to the portal and two more to the NBA Draft since Will Wade was fired, but for a program in the basement of a mid-level conference on a competitive uptick that just added several quality teams, the climb becomes much steeper.

Coach Dane Fischer and AD Brian Mann tried to fit the sow with a ball gown in a piece in the Newport News (Va.) Daily Press, my old rag. Mann said, “I still think that Coach Fischer is the right guy for the program and he’s got my full support. What I’m learning about this and hearing about this is that this is not a program in trouble. It’s not about a bad culture. It’s not about a poor student-athlete experience. (The transferring players) are making their own individual decisions. I think Dane has created and built a really strong culture and he cares deeply about our student-athletes. That means a lot to me.”

Fischer said, “The transfer portal is the new reality of college basketball,” and that he views the portal as a means to rebuild the roster. He said that he’s jazzed about the returning players and three incoming recruits. Because what else is he gonna say?

Fischer is correct about the transfer portal as the new reality. Players are emboldened by the new rule that permits immediate eligibility after a first transfer, without sitting out a year. More than 1,000 players have entered the portal so far this spring, which means there’s plenty of options for teams to fill gaps and rebuild. But how many are interested in a program that just finished 5-27, even with ample minutes available? More important, how many qualify and would be a good fit in one of Division I’s more strenuous academic environments? How deftly can Fischer and his staff navigate the new normal?

The jury’s still out on whether Fischer can coach. By all accounts, he’s a quality, likeable chap. He inherited an NBA-level talent in Nathan Knight and the remnants of Tony Shaver’s final team in his first season – a team that, as constructed at the time, would have been a conference favorite and still won 21 games. There was predictable regression in Fischer’s second, pandemic-plagued year, and then this season’s face-plant, in which the Tribe won only four games against Division I opponents.

Which leads us to address the griffin in the room. There’s a through line from former AD Samantha Huge’s ego-driven ouster of Shaver in 2019 to W&M’s present predicament. There’s no way of knowing how Shaver would handle the transfer portal and the changing landscape of college hoops, or even if he would still be head coach three years later. Barring illness or catastrophe, it’s a safe bet that he’d still occupy the Big Chair, if only to continue what he built. He developed a system that made Tribe hoops competitive and relevant after years in the wilderness. He brought continuity to the program, critical for sustained success at a place such as William and Mary, which rarely lands top-tier recruits and for which there are no quick fixes. When he was canned, several players and recruits bolted, interrupting the talent and development pipeline. 

Fischer hasn’t picked up the mantel. Not to say he won’t or is incapable, but his and every head coach’s job is more difficult than just two years ago. Coaches must retain as well as recruit, that is re-recruit their own players, and keep one eye on the transfer portal for potential help and to replace departures, in addition to the usual X-ing and O-ing their way past conference rivals. There’s a Wild West component to the portal, as coaches and programs figure it out. Mid-major leagues are suddenly farm systems for Power 5 conferences. A lot of kids who average 17 points per game for a mid-major are convinced that they can play for Michigan State. And there’s certainly tampering, with Power 5 programs reaching out through back-channels to gauge kids’ interest in transferring up. Many P5 programs would rather fill gaps with kids who’ve already played a year or two of college ball than with a high school recruit. On the flip side, a lot of players at P5 programs who don’t think they’re getting enough run bolt for what they believe are better opportunities rather than persevere. And in William and Mary’s case, sometimes players are just looking for something else, whether it’s better than 5-27 or being closer to home or simply a different environment. This isn’t an old guy lament. I’m all for players having more freedom and for being able to make money from their abilities. While the degree of roster churn is probably greater than most envisioned, it’s simply another result within a microwave society.

I observed a lot of sludge in Tribe basketball over the past 35 years. Good coaches, smart coaches struggled to gain footing. Success was often fleeting. Backslides were jarring. Shaver came closest to consistent success, and it even took him years to hit upon the right mix of playing style and recruiting to that style. Fischer says, publicly at least, that the transfer portal provides opportunities for the program. Spinning it positively is understandable, since he isn’t in a position to say, “it stinks,” and then turn to a potential transfer and say, “but not for you.” The portal feels like one more hurdle for a program that has plenty already.