Thursday, June 14, 2018

Quick, Dirty, Definitive: A G:TB World Cup Preview

The 2018 World Cup kicks off today in Moscow (and dig on the vaguely Cyrillic/Moorish font FIFA's chosen). It's well-established that the United States squad will be watching from home, kicking it with their Italian and Dutch pals, in what's now surpassed the 1998 World Cup as the most abysmal American failure in modern soccer history*. And you already know who I'm pulling for, even though the Ticos have played really poorly in the run-in to the Finals. So in the spirit of Gheorghe, we'll keep this short and sweet.

We lost to Iran in 1998. Not good. Bad.
* If you're interested in a great story, packed with melodrama, hubris, players sleeping with their friends' wives, and mullets, check out Roger Bennett's podcast, American Fiasco, about that 1998 U.S. team.

Forthwith, the official G:TB World Cup predictions:

Group A: Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Uruguay

On the field, Uruguay are the class of this group, and if Mo Salah is healthy, Egypt are a good bet to advance, as well. But Russia are involved. And the tournament is in Russia. There will be chicanery. It won't be subtle. But we still like Uruguay and Egypt to move on to the knockout stage.

Group B: Portugal, Spain, Morocco, Iran

Spain just sacked its head coach, Julen Lopategui, after word leaked that he'd agreed to become Real Madrid's new manager. This might normally derail a squad, and it certainly could have an impact later in the tournament as tensions between the Barcelona and Real players on the team boil over. But Spain's going to win this group easily. Portugal will join them in the next stage.

Group C: France, Australia, Peru, Denmark

France are the class of this group, and on paper, one of the favorites to win the entire thing. I don't believe in their chemistry - too many preening show ponies for my taste. Peru will finish second, barely edging Denmark.

Nigeria have the best kits in the competition
Group D: Argentina, Iceland, Croatia, Nigeria

The heart wants Iceland and Nigeria. The head says Argentina and Croatia, two really strong sides.

Group E: Brazil, Switzerland, Costa Rica, Serbia

Brazil's biggest worry in the group stage is staying healthy. They should cruise. While I'm rooting for Costa Rica, I think they'll finish last in this group. Serbia's on fire, scoring goals for fun in their prep matches. I'm tipping them to go through.

Group  F: Germany, Mexico, Sweden, South Korea

As with Brazil, the Germans won't be challenged, even as they've looked a bit ragged of late. Each of the other three sides could make a case. If Mexico can hold Germany to a draw in their opening match, they'll be a lock. Says here they can.

Group G: Belgium, Panama, England, Tunisia

England's been so bad in major competitions over the past several decades that their notoriously harsh media have gone easy on the Three Lions heading into this tournament. It pays off, as Gareth Southgate's boys ease into the knockout stages by finishing second to Belgium. England's opener against Tunisia is huge.

Group H: Poland, Senegal, Colombia, Japan

It's long past time for an African nation to make some real noise at a World Cup Final, and Senegal's at least going to have a chance. They'll finish second to Colombia in this group and grab the world's attention.

Round of 16

Uruguay over Portugal
France over Croatia
Brazil over Mexico
Belgium over Senegal
Spain over Egypt
Argentina over Peru
Germany over Serbia
Colombia over England

Quarterfinals

Uruguay over France
Belgium over Brazil
Argentina over Spain
Germany over Colombia

Semifinals

Belgium over Uruguay
Argentina over Germany

Finals

Belgium over Arg....Russia. Russia's gonna win. Russia wins everything. Forget all the rest.

And enjoy the footie.

11 comments:

Mark said...

I put a little on Belgium at +700 to give me a little more of a rooting interest. And I’ll be working from him for Spain-Portugal tomorrow.

TR said...

Kevin De Bruyne is known by Premier League fans, but this tourney could be a break-out moment for him on the global stage. Love the way that dude plays for Man City. Lots of talent on that team. I went with Germany in an ESPN pool.

rob said...

either saudi arabia really, really suck, or putin offered the royal family some serious coin for a russia win. i’d say it’s a 50/50 proposition.

rootsminer said...

I appreciate the brevity of this primer. I'll miss the World Cup of four years ago, meeting up with friends to day-drink during USA matches. A bit harder to justify this year, though the Portugal Spain match tomorrow afternoon seems tempting...

TR said...

Stupid 315 PM birthday party tmrw for my kid means I only get to watch 1st half. Bummer.

TR said...

Saudis kinda suck. And they have more money than Russia, especially w/ Brent crude oil trading over $75. But a weird score for sure b/c Russia kinda sucks too.

TR said...

Tiger crapping the bed on the Thursday of a major really really sucks.

Whitney said...

Agree, TR. Name another player in any sport who commands such attention and interest across all demographics. It's fascinating.

TR said...

Are we sure Eric Karros and Anthony Scaramucci aren't the same person?

Whitney said...

One of them got laid a lot more in 1993.

TR said...

Karros' forehead is ginormous.