Saturday, February 21, 2015

This Week in Wrenball: Three Days in March

Mali
Let's stipulate that we would prefer, nay, be thrilled if our Wrens can find a way to grab the top seed in the 2015 CAA Men's Basketball Tournament. It would, as it happens, be the first time that W&M earned that bracket slot. It would also be optimal for Team G:TB's viewing and drinking plans in Baltimore.

But we're not gonna lose any sleep over it this week. Because the only seeding objective that matters in this bizarro CAA season is finishing in the top six. The bottom four teams in the league have to play on Pillow Fight Friday for a slot in the quarterfinals. The top six start their tournament on Saturday.

William and Mary has done enough at this point to assure a top six finish. Despite losing consecutive conference matchups for the first time this season, the Tribe remains atop the league at 10-5. (While W&M is part of a four-way clusterscrum at the top of the table, we hold the tiebreaker advantage over the other teams by dint of a better combined head-to-head record - it's one of the hidden benefits of losing most of your league games to the conference's dregs.)

Tot
Correlation's not causation, but those two straight stumbles (at home against Delaware and at Northeastern) drop the Tribe's record without sophomore guard Daniel Dixon to 1-2. Dixon is W&M's third-leading scorer, and as importantly, the team's best perimeter defender. He's making 45.6% of his three-pointers, better than Marcus Thornton, and second-best in the CAA.

With Dixon, Thornton, and Omar Prewitt in the lineup, opposing defenses are hard-pressed to defend Tony Shaver's well-spaced and diverse offense. (See this terrific post by Shades of 48 for a tutorial on the Tribe offense.) Without Dixon, the combination of freshmen Greg Malinowski (a deadeye shooter who lacks Dixon's explosiveness), Oliver Tot, and Connor Burchfield (or, as coined by Dave Fairbank, Mali-Tot-Field) has struggled to carry the all-around load. The three frosh have averaged a combined 8.3 ppg on 38.1% shooting in the three games Dixon's missed. Opponents make 49% of their shots from the field against the Dixon-less Tribe.

Dixon didn't make the trip to Boston, and likely won't play tomorrow at Hofstra. W&M closes its regular season with home games against Towson and Drexel, both of whom the Tribe throttled on the road earlier this year. Drexel, though, is the hottest team in the CAA at the moment, winners of six of their last seven.

Field is somewhere in here
(It should be noted here that Thornton is 36 points from tying Chet Giermak's all-time school scoring record. Giermak has held the record for 50 years, the longest-standing mark of any school in Division I. It's a measure of the weirdness of this season that it took us seven paragraphs and required a parenthetical to mention Thornton's assault on the top of the Tribe's list.)

Two wins in the final three games is a reasonable expectation. Worse would suck, but wouldn't be the end of the world. A healthy W&M is the most talented team in the league. And if that's what we bring to Baltimore, then we'll take our chances.

It was always down to March.

25 comments:

Clarence said...

Baltimore??? I was making plans for Richmond. Whoops.

TR said...

Maybe I can make it if I get fired.

Is Fells Point gonna be ready for Hurricane Clarence?

rob said...

elon's win over delaware clinches the tribe's passage to the top six.

zman said...

It's been pounding down snow since around 1 and in my expert opinion as a former weather goat I expect to see 6 to 9 inches of powdery snow by the time it's done. Against this backdrop, the following conversation ensued when zwoman returned home from Gymboree with zdaughter around 2:30.

zwoman (slightly annoyed): There's something wrong with the car.

zman (concerned): Uh-oh. What's it doing?

zw (definitely annoyed): When I step on the brakes the pedal vibrates and there's this duh-duh-duh-duh noise. It's all fucked up.

zm (calm and probably a bit pedantic): No, that's the anti-lock braking system kicking in. That sound means that you locked the wheels up. It's supposed to do that. Otherwise you would've skidded into a tree or something. It's snowing pretty heavily, how hard are you slamming on the brakes? You need to be careful when you try to stop in the snow.

zw (huffy): Well the car has all-wheel-drive.

zm (incredulous): All-wheel-drive helps the car accelerate but it provides no advantage when you decelerate. It doesn't help you stop whatsoever. You know that, right?

zw (confused): What?

Dartmouth y'all!

rob said...

my wife was less than pleased with me when i practiced fishtailing and recovering earlier today.

zman said...

That's actually a skill worth practicing. When I was a kid my father took me to a giant empty parking lot during a snow storm and had me practice skidding and recovering from the skid. You shouldn't practice on the streets though.

rob said...

that's what she said. killjoys, both of you.

rob said...

tribe's flight to long island cancelled. taking a bus. it's gonna be a 20-hour trip in this weather. hofstra's gonna bury us tomorrow. wager accordingly.

zman said...

A train seems more prudent.

rob said...

delaying the game a day even more so

zman said...

You took a logistics course in B-school, didn't you.

zman said...

How much bloodclot related heckling will Chris Bosh face next year? And will it only occur in cities with a large Caribbean population?

rob said...

i contain multitudes, z

Clarence said...

Hit the rastaman he said bloodclot

Clarence said...

Hurricane Clarence has officially hit Cape Cod. Boston last night with a couple of fratres. Big weekend.

Mark said...

What the bloodclot.

Clarence's night last night and the tweeting of the night earned me free beer or a free tshirt. Not sure just yet.

Mark said...

Not a great start for Auburn in Rupp. Down 28-4.

mr kq said...

If you Tribesters will have us... kq and I could be in on the Baltimore Bandwagon.

zman said...

Clarence I assume you hit the lower depths?

Mark said...

I made this comment on the last post before I realized a new post was up. Alexi Lalas & Sydney Leroux were in my town for a soccer clinic today.

zman said...

Wasn't Sydney leroux Wesley snipes character in white men can't jump?

Mark said...

I believe that was Sydney Dean. Sydney Leroux is quite attractive. And talented.

rob said...

fairbank says the tribe will arrive on long island between 1 and 2 am. game is at 2 pm.

mr kq said...

I don't know Rob, we shaved our heads in Redbeard's Pub (I left the beard Mel Blount style.. smooth), then drove all night from Motown to Blacksburg and beat the self proclaimed powerhouse VA Tech Rugby squad on their turf. Then won the party.

So there's hope.

rob said...

so you're sayin there's a chance