Friday, January 11, 2013

A Bettor's Guide to the NFL Divisional Playoffs


As the former producer and booking agent for the Z-Man and The Teej morning show, I thought it would be great if I could use my long list of celebrity contacts to get a special guest in here to give us their picks for this weekend’s NFL games.  Given the outcome of the bets listed in the comments section, God knows we need some help.  After flipping through the ol’ rolodex and reaching out to several hundred “stars” who did not call me back, I contacted Haywood Nelson. 

I can hear you already….”I can’t believe that Marls was able to get TV star and 70’s personality Haywood Nelson to be a guest picker on G:TB.   Rob interviewing LeBron James was cool and all, but Marls got the guy who played Dwayne (Hey, Hey, Hey) on “What’s Happening!!” and “What’s Happening Now!”.  


Unfortunately, Haywood didn't call me back either.  I suspect he might be busy working on the pilot for "What's Happening Again!!!".  However, all is not lost because not only did "What's Happening" have one of the great television intros of all time, it also gave us an almost foolproof formula for betting on NFL games - both of which can be seen in the attached clip.  


For those of you too lazy to watch the clip, the setup is that Dwayne, using his personal system (detailed at the 11:30 mark) has picked 5 NFL winners in a row against the spread.  This results in Rerun convincing his cranky, Ike Turner wannabe brother in law to bet his Hawaii vacation money ($500) on Tampa Bay as a three touchdown underdog to Oakland.  Only after the bets are placed does Dwayne reveal that his system consists of the following:

1. The Score:  Dwayne predicts the score by taking the attendance of each team's last home game and dividing it by the distance between the two stadiums and then subtracting the starting quarterback's number.  

2.  The Winner:  The winner of the game is determined who has the "fanciest" helmet.  In the event of equally fancy helmets, a coin is flipped.    

Needless to say, after Dwayne's system is revealed, hilarity ensues....sad, depressing 1970's economic recession hilarity.    You can watch the second half of the episode to get in on all the fun, but the Cliffs Notes version is that Oakland slaughters Tampa and Rerun gets a job working at the bookie's pizza parlor to help pay back his brother in law.  Hilarious, right?

However, what is lost in the shuffle is that using his system Dwayne was still 5-1, a record that most folks around these parts would kill for.  Therefore, using google maps, NFL attendance info, and a little subjective helmet evaluation I have broken down this weeks playoff games.  You can thank me later.   Without further ado, the picks...

Based on this handy dandy chart, we already know what the score is going to be.  This distances between stadium were determined using the shortest driving directions.  



Baltimore at Denver (-10) 

Dwayne has this one ending up with a final score of 38-28.  Looks like the blowout predicted by the line until you realize that the smug little raven with feather detail is much more fancy than the overly stylized horse.   Too bad the Broncos dropped their old school helmets with big D and the bronco reared up and getting frisky.  Now that was fancy.  That means the Ravens move on and Ray Lewis gets to play another day.  

PICK:  Take the Ravens & the points.  

Green Bay at San Francisco (-2.5)

The Saturday night game pits teams with two of the most unfancy helmets in the league.  I almost used Dwayne's coin flip method for this one until I realized that the Green Bay helmet looks like it was designed by a third grader with two Mr. Sketch "smelly markers" (lemon & apple) and a short attention span.  San Fran's helmet wins the fancy battle and the game, 24-20.

PICK:  Take the 49'ers and lay the points.  



Seattle at Atlanta (-2.5) 

If the oracle of Watts is to be believed, the score of this game will be 24-22.  Of course, Dwayne admits to Raj and Rerun that he has only hit the exact score once.  However, considering that the New York Times went 0-520 in 2000 and 2001 trying to predict final scores, I would say that 1 for 6 is pretty darn good.   Since this looks to be a two point  game, it does not really matter which helmet is more fancy.  

PICK: Take the Seahawks and the points.  


Houston @ New England (-9.5)

This is arguably the matchup of the two fanciest helmets left in the the playoffs.  The remaining "fancy lads" if you will.  Both feature a prominent star and red, white and blue stylized version of what they are trying to depict.  Tough call.  In the end, I went with Texans, mainly because I think Dwayne would be upset that the Pats abandoned one of the fanciest helmets of all time when they ditched Pat the Patriot.  Texans win 31-25.

PICK: Take the Texans and the points.  


Next week I'll be back with Brandon Walsh and Nat from the Peach Pit to break down the conference championship games.  

50 comments:

zman said...

Marls!! Nicely done.

rob said...

indeed - bravo. but the broncos' helmet is fancier than the ravens'.

Danimal said...

jeah! marl's marl takes lead for r.o.y. congratulations.

just give him the trophy now.

Danimal said...

Marl's marl?

zman said...

Marley Marl. Say Queensbridge.

Marls said...

Me and Ron Artest

zman said...

Johnnies for life.

Dave said...

fantastic post, marls. this is sportstalk i can understand! and i love the seahawks helmet.

rob said...

i'd like all gheorghies to please join me in wishing shlara a happy 29th birthday. we're very fortunate to count her among our number.

Jerry said...

And the prospects for the Cleveland Browns continue to get more bleak.

Shlara said...

I like your gambling strategy Marls--even I can understand it!

And thanks Rob for the bday shout-out. I may look 29, but I'm many, many years older than that in reality. You guys wish you could look this good in middle age :-)

Mark said...

The bridge is over, the bridge is over. Badabyebye!

zman said...

I come into the dance with a spliff of sensie! Down with the sound called BDP!

Marls said...

Happy birthday Shlara. Just remember, you are only as old as you are.

Mark, Nas would disagree with the content of your sentiments.

Mark said...

But KRS-One would agree.

Happy Birthday, Shlara. Your University of Florida hat is in the mail.

zman said...

Age is just a number, it's all about maturity.

Geoff said...

So I saw a game on classic the other day featuring the 2001 Miami Hurricanes. And I just looked something up. Of the players on that team, 38 were drafted by an NFL team, and 17 were drafted in the first round. Players of note: Clinton Portis, Jonathan Vilma, Frank Gore, Willis McGahee, Andre Johnson, Ed Reed, Sean Taylor, Bryant McKinnie, Kellen Winslow, Jeremy Shockey, Antrelle Rolle, Vince Wilfork.

That has to be the greatest roster in college football history, right?

Danimal said...

and largest payroll.

Marls said...

SMU might beat them $$ wise if it is inflation adjusted.

Mark said...

That's the best roster I've ever seen. Not only were there 17 first rounders but nearly all of them (and plenty of other draft picks from that team) were major contributors in the NFL.

I also got to watch that team kick the shit out of Florida in The Swamp. Not good times.

rob said...

mike tomlin and darren sharper were on the same w&m team. so that's pretty close.

Danimal said...

happy birthday to shlara! ND hat en route. big leprachaun on the front. wear with pride.

Danimal said...

jmu had no one and no one. they did however have a charles haley & gary clark on a team in the mid-80's. that's quite a few super bowl rings between those 2 chaps. 6?

zman said...

As was Warren Roark, rob.

T.J. said...

And Jude "the body (by PEDs)" Waddy (sp?)

Squeaky said...

Did someone call Red-Eye and make sure he is ok?

Jerry said...

Keeping the Tribe theme, W&M Hall of Fame inductions out today: Al Albert, a tennis chick from our era who I never remember seeing on campus, 2 runners, and a gymnast.

Marls said...

I chose not to vote for any W&M Athletic Hall of Fame candidates because I was unsure whether they had used performance enhancing drugs.

zman said...

They all took Adderall.

rob said...

how is bill parcells not already in the nfl hall of fame?

Geoff said...

Because every time he hits the five year retirement window, he takes another NFL job...

Clarence said...

NFL HoF is going to accept a big number this year, just to accentuate that baseball is more and more for elitist dweebs and American football is for real humans. Spoken from a baseball purist.

Clarence said...

Spoken from? What, did I go to Madison?


Sorry, Danimal.

Marls said...

You dun speak the truth Clarance.

T.J. said...

You like-a da juice? Da juice is good, no? You have-a more juice.

Marls said...

Any truth to the rumor that Mark will be in the Hampton Roads area on the 26th?

Mark said...

As I've mentioned on here before, I work with a local high school's guards and my men's league team scrimmages them during the summer. As it turns out, this year's team is the best in the county so far. Going to watch them play the county's other top team tonight. Nothing quite like attending a high school basketball game to make you feel old.

Mark said...

This is the first I've heard of that rumor. Why am I rumored to be in the Hampton Roads area on the 26th?

And doesn't the NFL HOF only take 5 candidates a year?

Marls said...

A fellow Floridian is spreading a rumor that you might make an appearance at some Yacht Rock nuptials.

Mark said...

Just got to the game. The JV game is finishing up. Already a couple haircuts making me feel very old.

Mark said...

Interesting, Marls. I doubt that guy can be trusted.

zman said...

Can't truss it.

Mark said...

/Flavor Flav dance

rob said...

i look forward to mark's surprise entrance. hope the groom will be sober enough to remember it.

Mark said...

Just have Ric Flair's entrance music cued up for me.

Marls said...

Wooooooo!

Clarence said...

Mark, I thought I had sent a message some time ago, but I drink a lot. If you - and all FOGTB can make it here on the 26th, please do. When I found out Greg was going to miss today, I tried in vain to make him feel bad and told him to enforce your presence.

Mark said...

I'll see what I can make happen. You get cracking on the Nature Boy's music.

Clarence said...

I can always take the mic.

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