Definitive G:TB Men's Soccer World Cup Preview

I am thoroughly in the tank for the World Cup. The idea of it, anyway. I've seen five World Cup matches - two on the men's side in 1994 (including Mexico/Italy during the heyday of lunatic goalkeeper Jorge Campos) and three in Montreal during the 2015 Women's World Cup. I love it all - the passion, the coming together of the world's fanbases, the stress, the wall to wall soccer. 

I love it all. Except for the people that run it. FIFA has always been a disgrace - a venal, corrupt vampire sucking treasure for its own ends. It may have met its match in Donald Trump, peas in a greedy, bloated, gilded pod.

As we get closer to the start of the 2026 event (Mexico hosts South Africa a week from yesterday), the global federation's veneration of gold over all else threatens, if not the integrity of the competition, certainly its reputation. The tournament's expansion to 48 teams was always a cash grab, but it doesn't seem that FIFA's higher-ups considered the fact that nobody in North America gives two shits about shelling out $400/seat to watch Curacao play Ecuador or Qatar take on Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

They definitely didn't anticipate Trump's Gestapo holding up entry visas for global stars like Switzerland's Breel Embolo (who had no problem entering the U.S. for friendlies just last year) or half the South African team. Lord knows what's going to happen if Iran and/or Iraq advance. That's just the athletes and coaches - we already know that foreign fans are staying away in droves. The BBC reports that 70% of hotel rooms reserved by FIFA in advance of the tournament for traveling supporters have been cancelled. We've never seen winning like this. The best winning. The hottest country.

The upshot for me is that I'm still really excited about the matches, disgusted by the organizers, and expecting the worst from our despicable administration. My personal compromise: I'll watch, but I won't put a dollar of my own money into FIFA's coffers. A girl's gotta have standards.

You didn't come here for my crisis of conscience, though. You're here for cogent analysis and pithy previews. (I'm being told that's not necessarily accurate. Onward.) We'll get to that. But first a handful of the things we're watching:

The Fodder:  

As noted above, expansion from 32 to 48 nations in the World Cup Finals is fueled by naked greed, regardless of how FIFA spins it as an expansion of opportunity. It is that for European and South American teams - seven of the 10 CONMEBOL nations are in the tournament, and fully one-third of all qualified nations are from Europe. 

The 2022 World Cup featured 63 matches, including the 15 knockout round tilts. Only three of those were decided by a margin of more than three goals. We're gonna get a cornucopia this year - 104 matches to get from 48 group stage qualifiers to 32 knockout participants and on to the final. It says here that we're gonna get blowouts a lot more than 5% of the time.

So while I think it's amazing that Cape Verde and Curacao and Haiti and Uzbekistan get the chance to share the spotlight with the global powers at the top of the game, I won't be holding my breath for underdog runs.

The Yanks:

One of the significant differences between 2026 and the last time the U.S. hosted a World Cup in 1994 is the substantially heightened interest in the game here and the correspondingly elevated expectations for the USMNT. In theory, Mauricio Pochettino could field a starting lineup where every field player is a starter for a team in one of Europe's major leagues. (He probably won't, because at least one of Tim Ream and Miles Robinson will start in the back, and both of them currently play in MLS.)

Despite a roster with real, proven talent, the U.S. is an enigma. Only half the team was rostered in 2022 when the U.S. advanced out of its group and got exposed by the Netherlands in the first round of the knockouts. The Americans have had strong performances in friendlies - witness a 5-1 demolition of World Cup-bound Uruguay - mixed with desultory efforts (hello, Japan!). Tomorrow's final tuneup against Germany will either reveal a lot or tell us nothing, depending on how we decide to spin it.

I don't envy Pochettino's task of selecting a roster - it's a good problem to have that we left out a number of very good players. My primary quibble with the final 26 is more makeup and less talent. I don't think we have enough redass quotient.

The best U.S. teams in terms of performance haven't necessarily been the most talented. The 1994 team famously beat heavily favored Colombia before taking eventual champs Brazil to the wire in the knockouts. More than half of that team didn't even play for a professional club, as U.S. Soccer decided to have them train together as a group in hopes of building togetherness. It worked, and it didn't hurt that we had brawlers like Eric Wynalda, John Harkes, Tab Ramos, and Earnie Stewart on the squad. In 2002, the U.S. roster featured five players on top-flight European teams, most of whom didn't play much. Our best player was Landon Donovan. And the U.S. reached the quarterfinals and were legitimately better than Germany in that match, victimized by a handball by Torsten Frings that prevented a U.S. goal that went uncalled in the pre-VAR era. That squad had lunatics like Frankie Hejduk and Clint Mathis, and physical forces like Brian McBride, DeMarcus Beasley, and Eddie Pope.

The 2026 side? Other than Tyler Adams and maybe Weston McKennie, I don't see it. The biggest omission to me with respect to this particular attribute is that of Diego Luna. The Real Salt Lake attacking midfielder isn't pretty, but he fights his ass off, and he's very skilled with the ball, picking out passes that unlock defenses and making intelligent runs to create space for himself and others. Dude's a menace (complimentary) - that's him at right playing on after breaking his nose against Costa Rica in 2025. He stayed in that match and picked up an assist on the game's first goal. Poch chose Giovanni Reyna over Luna, picking an undeniable talent who was a locker room pariah in 2022 and gives privileged prima donna energy. I worry.

The Underdogs (Natch):

Only eight nations have lifted the World Cup trophy over the tournament's 22 editions. Only five other nations have made the final over that time. It's an elite club. Non-European and South American countries need not apply. 88 teams have appeared in semifinals since the tournament's inception in 1930. All but three of those were European or South American nations (U.S.A. (1930), South Korea (at home in 2002), and Morocco (2022)). 

Here are the "outsider" sides Vegas thinks have the best chance to break that stranglehold:

• Japan (+4500 - 12th-best odds)
• Morocco (+5000 - 13th)
• U.S.A. (+5500 - t14th)
• Mexico (+5500 - t14th)

The African sides, other than Morocco, with the shortest odds are Senegal (+15000), Ivory Coast (+17500), and Egypt (+35000). Canada clocks in at +22500, pretty long for a host.

I think all of these squads have good to very good chances to advance from the group stage. I like the cut of the Mexicans' jib. El Tri are unbeaten in seven matches dating back to November 2025 and have only lost one of their previous 16. Javier Aguirre's side has a good mix of youth and experience (including Fulham striker Raul Jimenez, pictured at left), and features a number of players battle-tested in Liga MX, one of the world's most physical and competitive leagues. Combine that with group stage matches at home, and you could find a worse longshot.

Whew. That's a lot of words. It's almost as if this blog could use an editor.

I could wrap it up with a prediction, but that's exactly what They expect. Instead of one, you'll get three - the multiverse of G:TB World Cup outcomes.

First, hearkening back to the primary reason this Cup has such a greasy, gross sheen, let's imagine the most amazing, MAGA-brain-breaking version that has at least a modicum of realism. It might be magical, but let's play along, shall we. Here's what happens in that version:

• The U.S. is bounced in the group stage, falling to Türkiye (this could definitely happen) and losing a shocker to Paraguay in the opener. 
• Both Iran (possible!) and Iraq (not so likely) go through to the knockouts. 
• Canada advances to the quarterfinals, sparking gleeful rallies in Toronto calling for the U.S. to be the 10th Province.
• Mexico dance through the bracket, making it all the way to the final, where they eventually fall to Spain. Spain hates us at the moment, for obvious reasons.
• Four African teams make it to the round of 16, and two (Morocco and Senegal) reach the semifinals.

The next outcome imagines a tournament that what would suck because the results were so goddamn boring. This one breaks down like this:

• Eleven UEFA teams reach the final 16 and six get to the quarterfinals. This could definitely happen.
• The host nations advance to the knockouts but all get bounced without a win. 
• No African teams make it past the round of 32.
• Fabulous, flowing France loses to Germany in the round of 16.
• South Korea and the joyous Son Heung-Min exit early.
• Germany, Spain, England, and Portugal comprise an all-Euro semifinal.
• And Portugal with that asshole Cristiano Ronaldo lift the trophy.

Finally, here's the definitive G:TB prediction. This is what will happen:

• The U.S. does enough to advance, but Türkiye win our group.
• It's a pretty chalky group stage, and there's not a ton of upset-related drama throughout.
• The USMNT goes out to Argentina in the Round of 32, Poch leaves for AC Milan, and another four-year cycle of doubt and recriminations ensues.
• The Turks make a run to the quarters, where they fall to Spain.
• Mexico is the only host nation that wins a knockout match, but they fall to England in the Round of 16.
• Mo Saleh takes Egypt on a run to the quarters.
• England take out Brazil and Argentine on their way to the final.
• France bests Spain in an epic semifinal.
• England finally reach the top after trying and failing for 60 years. It's coming home! The Three Lions are massively talented, and they're coached by a brilliant and insane person in Thomas Tuchel.

Gheorghasbord: Things I'm Late To

I like to think I'm generally fairly clued-in to the pop culture zeitgeist, at least for the parts of it I care the most about. Namely, sports and certain types of music. I have no idea who most actors or pop musicians under the age of, say, 40 are. I know way too much about politics - that shit is slowly breaking my brain. Perhaps not so slowly, if you listen to my wife.

Today I'm sharing a trio of things that I've become aware of recently, though others got there well before me. One of them's a dramatic series, and the other two should've been in my wheelhouse.

For my money (not much to speak of), Cillian Murphy is the best actor going. He was terrific in Oppenheimer, which is the first time I really became aware of him. Turns out the Academy Award-winner has done some other stuff. So now I'm three episodes into Peaky Blinders, and friends, Murphy's portrayal of up-and-coming Irish gangster Tommy Shelby is spectacular, all simmering rage and cold calculation. Turns out it ran for nine damn years and they made a feature film. Who knew? Guess I've got some catching up to do.

About six months ago, the algorithms started pushing a somewhat oddly-affected musician into my feeds. Stephen Wilson, Jr. is a 46 year-old musician who blends country and rock in ways that hit the chords I like. The Indiana native sounds like nobody else, though. His playing is sublime, and his voice is haunting, emotional, rasping and raw. He's been making music since he left his job in research and development in Mars' food science department in 2016. Can't believe it took me this long to hear about him. Wilson is playing The Dome in Virginia Beach in late July, if you know anyone in the area.

This cover of 'Stand By Me' from a year ago or so is the first thing I heard him perform:

And here's his single, 'Gary':

Turning to sports, check out this statistical excellence: 20 pitching wins and 20 homers in consecutive college seasons, the first time that's ever happened; career record of 91-17, with a 1.29 ERA and 937 strikeouts in 687 innings; career batting line of .514/.842/1.356; led Nebraska to its first College World Series since 2013, homered in their final game while also taking a no-hitter into the sixth inning of an eventual loss to Texas.

Oh, and that last game? She did that while she was pregnant.

I give you Jordy Frahm, friends. The Nebraska native started her career at Oklahoma, where she was a standout pitcher for the powerhouse Sooners. She came home to help lift the moribund Nebraska program (the NIL money she got certainly did not hurt, if we're being fully transparent) and got to hit and pitch - that's where her 20/20 feat took place over the past two seasons.

And after the Huskers lost to Texas and were eliminated from the Women's College World Series, Frahm and her husband Trey announced that their family was about to grow.

View this post on Instagram

A post shared by Jordyn Frahm (@jordybahl)

I'd like to see Shohei Ohtani top that.

Oddsmakers: Three Sheets, One Leaf, and a Fever

Big doings and a crazy coincidence from Virginia's capital city next weekend. 

Yes, at week's end in Richmond, there will be a nice little assortment of music at the city's Maymont Park. A 100-acre green space in the heart of town adjacent to the James River, Maymont is celebrating a century of existence with some fun for all ages. 

On Saturday night, Carbon Leaf is playing; we've touted the virtues of my old buddy Barry and his band here before. Terrific dudes playing ear-pleasing music at clubs across the country. 

Leaf Barry with some gheorghies

Here's a Carbon Leaf tune ("Desperation Song") from a quality Richmond venue from a decade ago. Go check' em out!

Before that happens, though -- check this shit out.

On Friday night, a pair of local tribute acts share the bill. Full Moon Fever kick things off at 6pm; they're a killer Tom Petty tribute band that some of you may recall played my wedding 2 years ago. 

FMF, Prabir and Les Coole

Prabir and his Petty-playin' cronies are good eggs and do more than justice to that catalog. Be a face in their crowd. 

At 8:30pm, after my old wedding band clears out, stay tuned for the next act: Three Sheets to the Wind. They're a killer Yacht Rock tribute band that some of you may recall played my wedding 13 years ago. 

Smooth all over

The canvas can do miracles, and so can these guys. Smooth music is their milieu. Topper Dandy, Capt. Max Power, & Co. are super good guys and deliver a bevy of yacht rock tunes. They should be missed... is what a fool believes, Kenny. 

But seriously, what are the chances that this event features a pair of musical acts, and both bands played my weddings 11 years apart? 

I'd say not strong. (I also got married in Richmond in 1997; I'd say we should see if we can find Fat Ammon or the Rhondels to play some beach music on Saturday like they did for me that day back then... but they've mostly passed on.)

Add to this unlikely odds that my old friend's band is playing the third show, and it's quite the cosmic feat. 

Alas, I will be busy Friday night with my stepson's 8th grade graduation festivities. Otherwise, it'd be nice to see the old gangs and marvel at this weirdness.

Father's Day Gift Guide

Father's Day is nigh upon us and you will probably say "I don't know" when asked for gift ideas to commemorate the occasion, or maybe you don't know what to get one of the dads in your life.  This post aims to alleviate that problem.

Men in Love and/or the Trainspotting collection

If you read G:TB you were probably born between 1968 and 1978 which means you are of exactly the right age to have seen, and been absolutely blown away by, the movie Trainspotting when it came out in 1996.

Barry!  The book on which it's based is just as good and it got me into other works by Irvine Welsh including all the sequels and prequels involving the same group of radge jakeys which are available on Amazon as the "Trainspotting collection."  This does not include the latest installment, Men in Love, which takes place shortly after the end of Trainspotting and before Porno.  This means the new book is a sequel and a prequel.  As a fan of the series I enjoyed it greatly.  I guess you could come to it cold but I suspect you'll enjoy it more if you already read the other books, or at least Trainspotting.  I've cited some favorite Welsh quotes before--my top choice from Men in Love is from Sick Boy (natch) and it's at least tangentially related to Father's Day:

Pah-pah, Papa: even a broken clock is right twice a day.  I thank God that out of the billions of retard sperm that this miasmal mongol hound shot from those festering hee-haws intae my ill-omened mother (and countless Leith hoors), that it was the solitary, exceptional, perfect bastard that managed to penetrate her egg and furnish this saintly woman with her only son.

Onlae a dozy bam couldnae relate to that!

Syitren R300 CD player

zwoman got me one of these small modern CD players for my birthday.  It has AUX and optical jacks and Bluetooth so it works with AirPods or any other Bluetooth device.  More importantly, it justifies keeping all my CDs, especially the ones that are currently only on Notify (like Done By the Forces of Nature which was removed from Spotify because I suspect it includes exactly zero cleared samples).  I dig the Scandinavian vibe of the walnut version.  Who doesn't dig Scandinavian vibes?

Patagonia R1 Air Hoodie 

zson borrowed my softshell to clean out stables in the rain and a horse bit the zipper off (don't ask) so I went to REI to replace it during their recent 25% off sale.  They didn't have anything that fit the bill, but I spend a lot of time in fleece jackets and two of them are close to crapping out so I perused REI's selection and discovered Patagonia's new (at least to me) Air Fleece.  I'm not sure how it works but it keeps you warm without getting too warm (unlike their Better Sweaters) and the medium fit me perfectly.  They are wildly overpriced, even at 25% off, but it's replacing two fleeces (one of which I bought about 12 years ago) and zson is about my size so he can wear it too (so long as he avoids the zipper-eating horse) so I justified it to myself and I'm hoping it will last a long time.  I went with the hoodie version because who doesn't like hoodies?  

A subscription to The Atlantic

There might not be a better source of content outside G:TB than The Atlantic.  It's chock-full of think pieces from deep thinkers, cultural observations from cultured observers, and short fiction from non-fictional writers of all heights.  Notable writers include Tom Nichols, Anne Applebaum, David Frum, Robert Kagan, McKay Coppins, Sarah Fitzpatrick, Jonathan Chait, Adam Serwer, Derek Thompson, Annie Lowrey, Jamele Hill, George Packer, Eliot Cohen, Alexandra Petri and a boatload of other Washington Post defectors.  They put out new stuff online daily and offer a web-only subscription but for an extra $10 you can get also get the dead tree version mailed to your house along with a tote.

Huskies Playoff Preview

[And now for something completely different: a professional sportswriter interviews an amateur high school soccer coach and cranks out 600 words on a deadline. Up the Huskies.]

Listen to Rob Russell and the Tuscarora High soccer team’s trip to the regional playoffs is both reward and opportunity. The Huskies navigated a challenging season marked by injuries and player absences to advance into the postseason, where they have momentum and begin with a clean slate. 

“I told our kids that our goal was to be playing our best soccer at the end of the season and I think we’re doing that,” said Russell, the Huskies’ second-year head coach. “I think we’re in as good a spot as we’ve been all season.” 

The Huskies, who face Heritage High in Leesburg this evening at 6:00, enter the playoffs on an uptick. Though they finished 6-8-2 overall, they were 6-5-1 in Region 4C and tied for fourth after winning three in a row to end the season. The late surge can be traced to a jolt of offense and stability at goalkeeper after a couple months of uncertainty. 

Injuries compounded the uncertainty. Five starters missed multiple games due to injury, and Russell guessed that he was never able to start the same eleven more than twice, which led to both lineup and tactical tweaks. But the return of last year's leading scorer and honorable mention All-Met striker Emmy Tchou three games ago provided a boost to the offense, though she is at less than full strength as she rounds into form.

At the defensive end, talented freshman Laurel Francis, a natural midfielder, has settled in as relief goalkeeper and become much more comfortable in the past couple of weeks. Goalkeeper was a concern for much of the season after the Huskies’ all-district freshman keeper a year ago was forbidden from playing high school ball by her club team coach, so what appeared to be a strength heading into the season became an issue until recently. That, in turn, put added pressure on the Huskies’ back line, an experienced, talented group that has held up remarkably well. 

Backs Maddy Crew and Sydney York are first-team all-district, and senior captain Rosemary Stewart has been steady and solid, in addition to filling in at goalkeeper at times. Senior defensive midfielder Vicky Rojas is second-team all-district and the Huskies’ free kick specialist. 

Senior midfielder Kirran Holt is the team’s engine, Russell said, a tireless competitor who is first-team all-district and was all-region as a junior and is also all-state in track and cross country. She runs marathons and routinely logs five- or six-mile training runs before practice. She’s tied for the team scoring lead with seven goals and an assist, and Tchou’s return has helped create space for her and sophomore wing Kiya Philson, who also has seven goals and an assist. 

Tuscarora’s goal differential is a mite misleading, as early games were against stout competition when the team was still gaining its footing and dealing with myriad injuries. But the breakdown – 8 goals for, 14 against in first six regional matches; 18 goals for, 10 against in final six matches – indicates improvement. 

Despite the early struggles, Russell said the players’ commitment never wavered. “The girls have been awesome,” he said. “It’s a good group that really enjoys being around each other.” 

Russell wouldn’t go so far as to predict a postseason run. If the Huskies get past Heritage, their likely next opponent would be defending state champ Loudoun County High. LCHS is 14-1 and beat Tuscarora 5-0 in April. The Captains have scored 56 goals and allowed just four, according to the school’s website. 

“We’d like the opportunity to see if we can slow them down, but they’re really, really good,” Russell said. “It would be an upset, but it’s sports; who knows.”

Up the Huskies

New Perspectives - Art Filler

We have a very special intersection of pastime and profession on tap for you tomorrow, but until then, please enjoy this piece by Hokkaido-based artist Kenichi Nakaya. Visual Flood describes Nakaya's "Folklore" series thusly:

This ongoing project sees him transforming common, sometimes even quirky, Japanese rural crafts into fresh, modern works. Nakaya’s distinct approach breathes new life into items deeply embedded in the nation’s cultural fabric, offering a contemporary perspective on traditional aesthetics. His dedication to recontextualizing these familiar objects highlights a unique blend of preservation and innovation within his practice

Me, I was just tickled by the juxtaposition between what I first saw and what actually existed.

RIP Schlitz

The title of this post begs a pun involving the term "ripshit" but I'm feeling more maudlin over the discovery that Pabst Brewing Company will discontinue Schlitz beer.

When I was a younger man, there was a dive bar on Washington Street in Bergenfield that sold beer to go, no questions asked, and their cheapest was Schlitz.  I, accordingly, have a few memories of evenings that involve too much Schlitz.  We should pour one out for Schlitz but if you do I encourage you to pour out something other than Schlitz given that cans of Schlitz will soon be collector's items.  We will not be drinking Schlitz served by AI robots despite this predictive marketing: