Definitive G:TB Men's Soccer World Cup Preview

I am thoroughly in the tank for the World Cup. The idea of it, anyway. I've seen five World Cup matches - two on the men's side in 1994 (including Mexico/Italy during the heyday of lunatic goalkeeper Jorge Campos) and three in Montreal during the 2015 Women's World Cup. I love it all - the passion, the coming together of the world's fanbases, the stress, the wall to wall soccer. 

I love it all. Except for the people that run it. FIFA has always been a disgrace - a venal, corrupt vampire sucking treasure for its own ends. It may have met its match in Donald Trump, peas in a greedy, bloated, gilded pod.

As we get closer to the start of the 2026 event (Mexico hosts South Africa a week from yesterday), the global federation's veneration of gold over all else threatens, if not the integrity of the competition, certainly its reputation. The tournament's expansion to 48 teams was always a cash grab, but it doesn't seem that FIFA's higher-ups considered the fact that nobody in North America gives two shits about shelling out $400/seat to watch Curacao play Ecuador or Qatar take on Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

They definitely didn't anticipate Trump's Gestapo holding up entry visas for global stars like Switzerland's Breel Embolo (who had no problem entering the U.S. for friendlies just last year) or half the South African team. Lord knows what's going to happen if Iran and/or Iraq advance. That's just the athletes and coaches - we already know that foreign fans are staying away in droves. The BBC reports that 70% of hotel rooms reserved by FIFA in advance of the tournament for traveling supporters have been cancelled. We've never seen winning like this. The best winning. The hottest country.

The upshot for me is that I'm still really excited about the matches, disgusted by the organizers, and expecting the worst from our despicable administration. My personal compromise: I'll watch, but I won't put a dollar of my own money into FIFA's coffers. A girl's gotta have standards.

You didn't come here for my crisis of conscience, though. You're here for cogent analysis and pithy previews. (I'm being told that's not necessarily accurate. Onward.) We'll get to that. But first a handful of the things we're watching:

The Fodder:  

As noted above, expansion from 32 to 48 nations in the World Cup Finals is fueled by naked greed, regardless of how FIFA spins it as an expansion of opportunity. It is that for European and South American teams - seven of the 10 CONMEBOL nations are in the tournament, and fully one-third of all qualified nations are from Europe. 

The 2022 World Cup featured 63 matches, including the 15 knockout round tilts. Only three of those were decided by a margin of more than three goals. We're gonna get a cornucopia this year - 104 matches to get from 48 group stage qualifiers to 32 knockout participants and on to the final. It says here that we're gonna get blowouts a lot more than 5% of the time.

So while I think it's amazing that Cape Verde and Curacao and Haiti and Uzbekistan get the chance to share the spotlight with the global powers at the top of the game, I won't be holding my breath for underdog runs.

The Yanks:

One of the significant differences between 2026 and the last time the U.S. hosted a World Cup in 1994 is the substantially heightened interest in the game here and the correspondingly elevated expectations for the USMNT. In theory, Mauricio Pochettino could field a starting lineup where every field player is a starter for a team in one of Europe's major leagues. (He probably won't, because at least one of Tim Ream and Miles Robinson will start in the back, and both of them currently play in MLS.)

Despite a roster with real, proven talent, the U.S. is an enigma. Only half the team was rostered in 2022 when the U.S. advanced out of its group and got exposed by the Netherlands in the first round of the knockouts. The Americans have had strong performances in friendlies - witness a 5-1 demolition of World Cup-bound Uruguay - mixed with desultory efforts (hello, Japan!). Tomorrow's final tuneup against Germany will either reveal a lot or tell us nothing, depending on how we decide to spin it.

I don't envy Pochettino's task of selecting a roster - it's a good problem to have that we left out a number of very good players. My primary quibble with the final 26 is more makeup and less talent. I don't think we have enough redass quotient.

The best U.S. teams in terms of performance haven't necessarily been the most talented. The 1994 team famously beat heavily favored Colombia before taking eventual champs Brazil to the wire in the knockouts. More than half of that team didn't even play for a professional club, as U.S. Soccer decided to have them train together as a group in hopes of building togetherness. It worked, and it didn't hurt that we had brawlers like Eric Wynalda, John Harkes, Tab Ramos, and Earnie Stewart on the squad. In 2002, the U.S. roster featured five players on top-flight European teams, most of whom didn't play much. Our best player was Landon Donovan. And the U.S. reached the quarterfinals and were legitimately better than Germany in that match, victimized by a handball by Torsten Frings that prevented a U.S. goal that went uncalled in the pre-VAR era. That squad had lunatics like Frankie Hejduk and Clint Mathis, and physical forces like Brian McBride, DeMarcus Beasley, and Eddie Pope.

The 2026 side? Other than Tyler Adams and maybe Weston McKennie, I don't see it. The biggest omission to me with respect to this particular attribute is that of Diego Luna. The Real Salt Lake attacking midfielder isn't pretty, but he fights his ass off, and he's very skilled with the ball, picking out passes that unlock defenses and making intelligent runs to create space for himself and others. Dude's a menace (complimentary) - that's him at right playing on after breaking his nose against Costa Rica in 2025. He stayed in that match and picked up an assist on the game's first goal. Poch chose Giovanni Reyna over Luna, picking an undeniable talent who was a locker room pariah in 2022 and gives privileged prima donna energy. I worry.

The Underdogs (Natch):

Only eight nations have lifted the World Cup trophy over the tournament's 22 editions. Only five other nations have made the final over that time. It's an elite club. Non-European and South American countries need not apply. 88 teams have appeared in semifinals since the tournament's inception in 1930. All but three of those were European or South American nations (U.S.A. (1930), South Korea (at home in 2002), and Morocco (2022)). 

Here are the "outsider" sides Vegas thinks have the best chance to break that stranglehold:

• Japan (+4500 - 12th-best odds)
• Morocco (+5000 - 13th)
• U.S.A. (+5500 - t14th)
• Mexico (+5500 - t14th)

The African sides, other than Morocco, with the shortest odds are Senegal (+15000), Ivory Coast (+17500), and Egypt (+35000). Canada clocks in at +22500, pretty long for a host.

I think all of these squads have good to very good chances to advance from the group stage. I like the cut of the Mexicans' jib. El Tri are unbeaten in seven matches dating back to November 2025 and have only lost one of their previous 16. Javier Aguirre's side has a good mix of youth and experience (including Fulham striker Raul Jimenez, pictured at left), and features a number of players battle-tested in Liga MX, one of the world's most physical and competitive leagues. Combine that with group stage matches at home, and you could find a worse longshot.

Whew. That's a lot of words. It's almost as if this blog could use an editor.

I could wrap it up with a prediction, but that's exactly what They expect. Instead of one, you'll get three - the multiverse of G:TB World Cup outcomes.

First, hearkening back to the primary reason this Cup has such a greasy, gross sheen, let's imagine the most amazing, MAGA-brain-breaking version that has at least a modicum of realism. It might be magical, but let's play along, shall we. Here's what happens in that version:

• The U.S. is bounced in the group stage, falling to Türkiye (this could definitely happen) and losing a shocker to Paraguay in the opener. 
• Both Iran (possible!) and Iraq (not so likely) go through to the knockouts. 
• Canada advances to the quarterfinals, sparking gleeful rallies in Toronto calling for the U.S. to be the 10th Province.
• Mexico dance through the bracket, making it all the way to the final, where they eventually fall to Spain. Spain hates us at the moment, for obvious reasons.
• Four African teams make it to the round of 16, and two (Morocco and Senegal) reach the semifinals.

The next outcome imagines a tournament that what would suck because the results were so goddamn boring. This one breaks down like this:

• Eleven UEFA teams reach the final 16 and six get to the quarterfinals. This could definitely happen.
• The host nations advance to the knockouts but all get bounced without a win. 
• No African teams make it past the round of 32.
• Fabulous, flowing France loses to Germany in the round of 16.
• South Korea and the joyous Son Heung-Min exit early.
• Germany, Spain, England, and Portugal comprise an all-Euro semifinal.
• And Portugal with that asshole Cristiano Ronaldo lift the trophy.

Finally, here's the definitive G:TB prediction. This is what will happen:

• The U.S. does enough to advance, but Türkiye win our group.
• It's a pretty chalky group stage, and there's not a ton of upset-related drama throughout.
• The USMNT goes out to Argentina in the Round of 32, Poch leaves for AC Milan, and another four-year cycle of doubt and recriminations ensues.
• The Turks make a run to the quarters, where they fall to Spain.
• Mexico is the only host nation that wins a knockout match, but they fall to England in the Round of 16.
• Mo Saleh takes Egypt on a run to the quarters.
• England take out Brazil and Argentine on their way to the final.
• France bests Spain in an epic semifinal.
• England finally reach the top after trying and failing for 60 years. It's coming home! The Three Lions are massively talented, and they're coached by a brilliant and insane person in Thomas Tuchel.

***EMERGENCY UPDATE***

GET A LOAD OF THIS PHOTOGRAPH OF THE NORWEGIAN NATIONAL TEAM! I CHANGE MY PREDICTION. ERLING HAALAND AND HIS BAND OF MERRY VIKINGS ARE WINNING IT ALL! HEIA NORGE!