Wrenball Update: CAA Second Half

It's been really relaxing now that I've outsourced Wrenball to an actual professional. Herewith, a look at the CAA from our man at the beach:

We interrupt your pursuits, large and small, for a glance at Where Dreams Run into Bridge Abutments, otherwise known as William and Mary hoops, and the Colonial Athletic Association. The conference season just passed the halfway point, and while plenty of games remain, conclusion jumping is never out of style. 

The Tribe sits in the muddied middle of a league in the middle of the Division I landscape – 18th out of 32 conferences, ahead of the Mid-American, Southern and Patriot leagues, behind the Ivy, Sun Belt and Missouri Valley. Preseason expectations have mostly played out, though it’s worth noting that league records are unequal in a 13-team conference playing an 18-game schedule. 

Some schedules are pricklier than others, depending on time, travel and the scheduling algorithm’s sadism level. College of Charleston has had the best season so far and sits atop the league, though just a game ahead of Towson and Hofstra, and two games up on UNC Wilmington in what appears to be a three-tiered setup. The Tribe is among a pigpile that includes Drexel, North Carolina A&T, Delaware, Northeastern and Stony Brook. Elon and newbies Hampton and Monmouth are at the bottom. 

The Wrens (9-14, 4-6) already matched last season’s conference win total and nearly doubled their total wins, so progress? That said, they have played mostly to type. They’ve beaten only two teams currently with winning records (Army and UNCW) and have been bounced regularly by teams higher up the food chain, as well as folks at their own trough. They shoot reasonably well (third in the league in FG percentage, first in 3-point percentage), though curiously not from the foul line (11th of 13 teams). They defend poorly (11th in FG percentage defense) and commit more turnovers than they generate. 

Some of it may be due to roster churn, as the program incorporated nine new players. The one-year lease of guard Anders Nelson has been a positive experiment. The former D3 All-American from St. Thomas in Minnesota is the leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and leads the conference in assists (104). He’s a 48.5-percent shooter and would lead the league in 3-point shooting (.465) if he had enough attempts. He's totaled 49 on 15-for-16 shooting in the past two games. Forward Gabe Dorsey, a 6-6 soph who began his career at Vanderbilt, is the No. 2 scorer and a capable shooter himself (45 percent overall and from 3). Junior forward Noah Collier (Pittsburgh) is the league’s No. 2 rebounder. In fact, the transfer portal appears to have been a benefit, as four of the top five scorers are imports. 

The remaining schedule sets up favorably, as they face only two teams above .500 in the league, Towson and the Dubs - both at home. Eight or nine wins are not an unreasonable goal. However, that doesn’t sniff the top of the conference. Charleston (21-2, 9-1) is an interesting study. The Cougars were unbeaten in the league, ranked and sporting a 20-game win streak until a loss to Hofstra last weekend. Coach Pat Kelsey obviously knows what he’s doing, having averaged 20 wins over nine seasons at Winthrop before relocating to the Town That Sparked Sedition. He overhauled the roster with transfers and recruits, and has taken off in year two. They space the floor, launch a ton of 3-pointers, rebound enthusiastically, and still get to the free throw line. They’re top 25 in scoring nationally (80.1 ppg). Five guys average between 10 and 13 points per game. They lead the nation in 3-point attempts, are 10th in made 3-pointers per game, and 48 percent of their shots are from behind the arc. Seven guys have made at least 17 treys. Yet they also have made more free throws (344) than their opponents have attempted (313). 

Hofstra didn’t so much provide a blueprint for how to beat the Cougars as demonstrate how such a game likely must play out. First, it didn’t hurt to have defending Player of the Year Aaron Estrada and his vitals. The Pride made half of its 3-point shots, which helped offset Charleston’s 31-8 advantage in free throw attempts, and the Cougars made just 5 of 31 shots from 3, half of their per game average. If they had shot poorly instead of miserably, they would have won. 

Peculiar result aside, going undefeated in the conference wasn’t going to happen. No CAA team has done so, and only three teams have finished with one loss: two of David Robinson’s Navy teams and a late ‘80s Richmond squad under Dick Tarrant. CofC also presents an intriguing possibility for the CAA getting two teams into the NCAA Tournament. The league last had multiple teams in the NCAAs in 2011, with Old Dominion, George Mason and VCU, and the Rams went to the Final Four. 

Say the Cougars go 7-1 down the stretch, which would make them 16-2 in the league, 28-3 overall. If they lose in the CAA tournament semifinal or final, that would make them 29 or 30-4, with an NCAA NET ranking in the 40s or 50s (they’re currently 61) and an attractive at-large candidate. Could happen. 

The Cougs are good, but hardly unbeatable, as Hofstra demonstrated. Towson carried them to overtime, and they edged UNCW by two. Towson, the preseason favorite, is the league’s hottest team, winners of six in a row. The Tigers (16-7, 8-2) are seasoned, balanced and physical, led by the trio of all-conference wing Nicolas Timberlake, Cam Holden and 6-7, 245-pound Charles Thompson, who combine for 42 points and 18 rebounds per game. Like Towson teams from way back, they'll bounce you around like a cement mixer.

Hofstra (15-8, 8-2) has won three in a row and eight of 10 and is the league’s best shooting team. They’re fueled by the 6-3 Estrada, who leads the league in scoring (21.3 ppg), fellow senior guard Tyler Thomas and mellifluously named 6-8 forward Darlinstone Dubar. UNCW (17-6, 7-3) has an abundance of guards and wings, led by 6-6 soph Trazarien White (13.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Seven Seahawks average between five and 14 points per game, and they’re the league’s most statistically effective defense. Quality players capable of heating up for a game or two are sprinkled throughout the league, but if at least three of the current top four teams don’t make the conference tournament semifinals, the train has jumped the track. Wager accordingly.

[So you're saying the Tribe doesn't have a chance. Tough but fair.]

This Week in Wrenball: OBX Dave Shows Us How a Pro Does It

Because the holiday season cannot be a ceaseless parade of joy and good cheer [and there's only two hours left in the World Cup], we check in with William and Mary basketball. 

Johnny O'Neil, modern-day Nathan Smith

The Tribe sits at 4-7 amid a week-long break between games for semester exams, about where outsiders expected, given roster makeup and non-conference schedule, with head-scratchers and WTF stretches outpacing glimmers of hope. The fellas predictably fell against ACC foes Virginia Tech, Pitt and N.C. State. They defeated rival and defending Atlantic 10 tournament champion Richmond, and they came up small when it mattered in losses to Navy, American, Old Dominion and Norfolk State. 

The early part of the season was always going to be a challenge for a team with 10 new players – five transfers and five freshmen. Six players skedaddled via the transfer portal after a gruesome 5-27 season. But in today’s college climate, one player’s escape hatch is another’s escort past the velvet rope. Coach Dane Fischer and his staff landed transfers from Pitt, Vanderbilt, Rice, Providence and St. Thomas (Minn.). 

Fischer told former Daily Press colleague and current Tribe athletic scribbler Dave Johnson back in October: “I love the way this team is starting to come together and compete. We've got a long way to go given the new bodies here, but I like the talent level we have.” 

Fischer is more enamored of the talent than many. The Tribe was picked eighth out of 13 teams in the Colonial Athletic Association, among the third or perhaps fourth tier in what appears to be a stratified league. Early season statistical evaluations are always sketchy due to differing levels of difficulty in non-conference schedules, but the Wrens are in the CAA middle in scoring offense and defense, field goal shooting percentage and field goal percentage defense. They presently lead the CAA in team 3-point shooting, but are third from the bottom in team free throw percentage (.655), a potentially troubling sign for a team with little margin for error. Four of the five starters in recent outings are transfers, the holdover being 6-9 junior Ben Wight. Eight players average between five and 11 points per game. Five players average at least 24 minutes per game, five others between 10 and 17 minutes per game. Nobody averages more than 28 minutes. 

It’s logical to figure that Fischer is sprinkling out minutes early trying to identify the best combinations and rotations, as well as giving guys some run in one-sided games. No telling yet if he will shorten his bench when conference season arrives or continue to go 10-deep. The Tribe has some size in Wight, 6-8 Pitt transfer Noah Collier, 6-6 wing Gabe Dorsey from Vandy, and 6-5 Providence transfer Matteus Case, along with 6-7 freshman wing Jack Karasinski. 

The most intriguing addition might be Anders Nelson, a 6-1 grad transfer from Minnesota. He was a four- year standout at D3 St. Thomas, where he scored more than 1,400 points, was all-conference and all-region and led the team to a pair of NCAA Sweet 16s. He’s presently the leading scorer at 10.9 points per game, and shoots 48 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3-point range. Decide for yourself if the fact that one of the team’s most effective players has a D3 resume’ is discouraging, or a sign that perhaps he was an undersell and could have been a serviceable D1 player all along. 

William and Mary figures to improve as players become more comfortable with each other, though the CAA’s upper tier is an unlikely reach, seeing as how most everyone else will also get better. Charleston is 11-1 and among others receiving votes in the AP Top 25. Heavy favorite Towson is 8-3, with a competitive loss to Clemson and Pat Skerry’s typical collection of athletes and inside muscle. UNCW is 8-3, with losses at North Carolina, UConn and Oklahoma, and a wealth of guards and wings. Delaware has two of the league’s best players in Jameer Nelson Jr., and Jiyare Davis. Hofstra returns CAA Player of the Year Aaron Estrada. 

Among William and Mary’s wild cards is Fischer. I’ve written in this space previously that it remains unclear if he can coach, or more accurately, how successful he can be in Williamsburg. He did well as a rookie head coach with a pro-caliber talent in Nathan Knight. The Tribe reverted to the mean after Knight’s graduation and during the pandemic, followed by last season’s face-plant. Pre-transfer portal days, the program’s model for success was built on continuity and player development, as it rarely attracts top prospects. Continuity and development are exponentially more difficult now, as younger players can more easily seek “better” situations and older players look for new settings. Coaches now have even more categories to confront when they spin the Wheel of Indigestion, with recruiting, re-recruiting players they already have, scouring the transfer portal, making sure that NIL opportunities don’t go full cash drop, in addition to the usual academics, administrators, boosters, youthful hormones, and the uncooperative 6-5 opponent who scatters your defenders all evening on the way to his next school. 

In brief, the Tribe’s season is a challenge. On the plus side, several teams in the expanded (bloated?) CAA appear to be struggling as well, so a 5-27 repeat is unlikely. On the flip side, the top of the conference is a steep climb, and its present inhabitants will remain. Given the Tribe’s current makeup and inevitable roster churn throughout the land, there’s no guarantee that we won’t have this identical conversation 12 months from now and for years to come. So by all means, doctor your egg nog to taste.

Tribecast Open Thread