The Demise of Cinderella

Upheaval within college sports has created all manner of change for both participants and observers, not the least of which is a quantum leap in billable hours. Attorneys and entire firms have profited from those who contend that capitalist practices should extend to those who do the work regardless of their age, as well as from those who dug in their heels behind the thought: How come we can’t do it the way we’ve always done it? 

Conference realignment and consolidation, player pay and unrestricted movement, and Indiana University football ascension were always going to be jarring and difficult to grasp, not to mention expensive. But once colleges accepted television money to broadcast games and that money grew into multi-billion-dollar contracts and eight-figure payouts, it would inevitably lead to somewhere close to where we are now. 

Though on balance the developments are good, or at least more equitable, for the labor force, i.e., athletes, there would in turn be fallout that altered perspective and fandom and perhaps even the attraction of a team, a sport or an event. Which brings us to the NCAA Tournament and the gradual demise of the lower-tier conference program that makes a surprise run. 

The tournament nearly always ends up as a showcase of the sport’s best and most talented teams, but one of its beauties has been unlikely runs by programs outside the national spotlight: George Mason to the Final Four in 2006, Davidson and Steph Curry to the Elite Eight in 2008, VCU going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011; Florida Gulf Coast (“Dunk City”) to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed in 2013, eleven-seed Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four in 2018, St. Peter’s to the Elite Eight as a 15-seed in 2022. 

No such disruption this year. The Sweet 16 is all power conference programs. The closest we got was 12-seed High Point of the Big South Conference taking out Wisconsin in the first round, then playing Arkansas close before falling in the round of 32. VCU and Saint Louis of the Atlantic 10 both won their first-round games before getting bounced decisively by Big Ten teams in the second round. 

 The notion that Texas is a Cinderella because the Longhorns are an 11-seed is laughable. They’re a member of the SEC and have one of the largest athletic budgets in the country. They’re the privileged kid who scuffled along in college all year, but still got a cushy summer internship because of family connections. 

The last time there was a significant party crashing was 2023, when San Diego State and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four and Princeton advanced to the Sweet 16. For the second consecutive year, no team seeded 13-16 won a tournament game in the main draw. 

Get used to it. 

The formula for under-the-radar teams making a tournament run used to be a veteran group that had played together for several years and whose age and experience could offset the talent disparity against marquee programs, or a mid-major program that landed an under-recruited prospect or two to supplement an already solid roster. That’s become more difficult to pull off because of the transfer portal and budgets and NIL money that permit power conference schools to pay players. 

Indeed, the Sweet 16 is littered with players who began their careers elsewhere – not only jumps between power conference schools but smaller programs. Arizona has players from Harvard and Campbell. Michigan State has players from Harvard and Florida Atlantic. Alabama has transfers from Cal State Fullerton and Pepperdine. Nebraska has players who started at Rhode Island and Tulsa. Iowa State stud Joshua Jefferson began his career at St. Mary’s. 

Maybe the most visible example of movement and money is at Iowa, which knocked off defending champ Florida. Hawkeyes coach Ben McCollum won four Division 2 national championships at Northwest Missouri State, and two years ago was hired by Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference. Several of his players followed him to Drake, where they won the league title in his first season and upset Missouri in the NCAAs. Iowa hired him a year ago, and star guard Bennett Stirtz, who began his career with McCollum at Northwest Mizzou and went with him to Drake, followed him to Iowa along with three other Drake players. The kid who hit the winning shot against Florida last weekend was previously at Robert Morris. 

Point being that continuity and team development take hits in the present landscape. High-level recruits move because they see a better opportunity or more money elsewhere. Productive mid-major players are plucked away by power conference programs who seek to fill holes with seasoned players and can pay more. NIL money may keep some players who don’t have pro talent in college longer, but the guess is that players who stay at a school for three or four years and true NCAA Cinderellas will dwindle. The tournament remains the best event in sports, but loses a touch of magic and unpredictability in service to the young folks who provide the thrill. A fair trade.