Wake vs. Roger - Down the Stretch

Now that all four American League playoff participants have been determined, the last real drama (Sox/Yanks AL East race still in the balance, to be sure) to be milked from the season comes down to Saturday's Red Sox/Twins contest. Tim Wakefield takes the mound for the Sox needing a fairly dominant performance to carry yours truly to a come-from-behind victory over Teejay Boylington and shift the requisite brace of microbrews my way. Bet standings as of this moment:

Wakefield:
ERA - 5.20
WHIP - 1.39
BAA - .270

Clemens:
ERA - 4.18
WHIP - 1.31
BAA - .261

By my admittedly challenged math, Wake needs to go 8 or more innings and allow 3 or fewer baserunners by hit or walk for me to pull out the improbable victory (7 perfect innings would also suffice). If his recent efforts are any indication, I'm well and truly boned.

Although my point still stands - the Yankees paid $18m for 99 innings of essentially league-average production. Kudos for that, then. And, yes, I'm bitter.

Filler. Pure Filler.

It's fake. Let's move on.

In the interest of seeing something different on top of the G:TB masthead, just a quick bet- and/or prognostication-related update. Like Anderson Cooper, we're keeping them honest.

Teejay and I bet on the relative performance of Roger Clemens and Tim Wakefield from the time the former joined the Yankees' roster. On the strength of 15 consecutive scoreless innings (Thanks, Devil Rays!), Wakefield has taken the lead in two of the three relevant categories, edging Clemens in WHIP (1.25 to 1.28) and Batting Average Against (.251 to .268). Clemens leads the ERA battle with a 3.92 mark to Wake's 4.46. Much like the race to see which diminishes faster, Whitney's brain cell count or his hairline, this one's too close to call.

Teejay bet Dennis, among others, that the Washington Nationals would lose 100 or more games this season. With Manny Acta's scrappy bunch playing as well as almost anyone in the NL, it seems that the forces of Teejay's opponents are well-positioned to rout him. At 56-69, the Nats need just win 7 of their final 37 to avoid triple-digit losses. Advantage, anyone other than Teejay.

As for me, I posited early in the season that Alex Rodriguez' homer tally would exceed the very same Nationals' win total. While A-Rod's been quite homerrific, hitting number 40 last night, his torrid April pace was unsustainable. The lesson, as always, is that I'm an idiot.

And the bets go on...

Yep, many folks say this three day stretch surrounding the MLB All-Star Game is the most boring sports time of the year, and it's hard to argue with them. In fact, the only thing that seems to occur this time of year is repeated bashing of baseball's mid-summer classic, for a myriad of reasons (pick one appy and one entree please):
*Every team has to have one rep (Hi Dmitri!)
*The All Star managers play favorites (you think?)
*Bud's infamous tie in Milwaukee (and no, I don't mean the condom one I let him borrow)
*Interleague play has removed all the novelty of AL vs. NL
*And, of course, the asinine fact the winner now gets home field advantage in the World Series.

But, guess what, those complaints aside, I still love the damn thing. The MLB All-Star Game is the only pro sports all-star game that remotely resembles the product on the field the rest of the season. Admittedly, I am a huge baseball fan who can honestly sit through an entire Orioles/Devil Rays game for a full nine innings, so I understand my love of this game is not shared by many out there. Still, come 8:30pm tonight, I'll be tuned in to watch the game that brought me pre-Baseball Tonight Kruk vs. Big Unit, Torii Hunter robbing Satan's child Barry Bonds, the "he can't really be letting this thing be a tie" tie (it was so ridiculous it gets to be in the good and bad columns) and most memorably Bo Jackson's obscene athleticism in the leadoff spot. But I guess if you're really that bored and hate the game that much, you can always turn to the Arena Football playoff game on espn2.

*****
OK, sentimentality aside, this post was originally meant to simply serve as a quick look at three ongoing G:TB bets, given this All-Star break breather. They are:

A-Rod vs. the Nats
New York's favorite villain rides into the All-Star break with 30 homers. He leads the majors. He's having a tremendous season. Yet a large chunk of Yankee fans and the entire NY press corps hate him. Simmer down folks. Anyway, we were very close to this race being tied, but a Nats surge (for them, 2 wins in a row is most certainly a surge) means the Nats now have 36 wins and lead A-Rod by 6. I assure you this will be a close race all year long.

The Nats losing 100 games (and me winning two cases of beer)
Ah yes, I was sure I was in the driver's seat when the Natty's dropped three of four to the Cubs over the Fourth holiday, but then, amazingly, they come back to take two of three from the Brew Crew (behind Simontacchi and Tim Redding of all pitchers). Impossible to figure these guys out. Right now, I believe they are on pace for 92 or so losses, but I have hope the July 31st trade deadline will once again set the Nats on the 100 loss path. Buh bye Da Meat Hook, Ronnie Belliard and The Chief, at the minimum. Of course, this means I am putting faith in Jim Bowden to properly trade his valuable commodities, and I think we all know how I feel about that asshat doing anything right.

Wake vs. Rocket
You know what, Rob created a nice spreadsheet for this, so for now, let's just say this race is neck and neck until I crunch the numbers. I'll be back this afternoon. Or not.

"How much do you want to bet?

The usual amount.
Why not?"

It seems there are endless bets being thrown around here at G:TB, but this is one I didn't want to forget (mainly because I plan on winning it). Once Roger Clemens announced his return to the Yankees, everyone and their mother had some sort of opinion on it, including this initial comment from Rob (don't worry, we won't hold you to these stats) and my deeply insightful reply:

Rob: How about some clemens predictions from the rocket surgeons here at g:tb?

starts: 22
record: 9-7
yankees' record: 14-8
era: 3.98
innings/start: 5.8

TJ: I will happily take that.

Rob was also apparently impressed by a Seth Mnookin post regarding Roger's return, and the Rocket's chances to pitch better than Tim Wakefield for the rest of the season (Seth had Wake's back in that fight), which led to the actual bet we will be tracking:

Rob: teejay - seth mnookin postulates today that tim wakefield will have better stats at the end of the year than clemens. wanna make that interesting?

TJ: As for Wake vs. Clemens, I've already got two cases coming my way, so sure, I'll spin one into this bet. What measurables are we using?

TJ: Well, Sethie seems to be using ERA, WHIP and BAA in his argument, so it seems we should use those as well.

Rob: deal.

So there you have it: Rob vs. TJ...Red Sox vs. Yankees...Tim Wakefield vs. Roger Clemens. Correct me if I'm wrong Robert, but the bet began with Roger's first start, yes? And these are the stats we're using: ERA, WHIP, BAA? If so, the early bet stats are below (and yes, I realize until I do a bit more math, these pitching lines do not match the actual bet metrics...give me some time, I'm not Rob Neyer):

Wake:
June 12 - 8.0 IP, 4 H, 1 BB, 1 ER
June 17 - 5.2 IP, 8 H, 1 BB, 5 ER

Rocket:
June 9 - 6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 BB, 3 ER
June 15 - 6.1 IP, 7 H, 1 BB, 2 ER