"There’s going to be some sort of drama that unfolds that changes whatever the popularly accepted narrative is about the winner or who’s going to be in the semifinals or who’s even going to be in the quarterfinals.”
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Hightower takes the game very seriously. |
So sayeth no less a sage than our own Brian Hightower on the eve of the
2019 Rugby World Cup. That may seem like anodyne stuff put out by NBC as part of the pre-tournament publicity package. But Hightower doesn't do anodyne. I think he's picking the USA Eagles to make a run to the Final Four. And I'm right beside him.
Though the Eagles are ranked a modest 13th in the world, they did win the Olympic gold medal. In 1924, but that's hardly relevant. Coach Gary Gold's squad recorded the US's first-ever tier 1 win last summer, knocking off Scotland, 30-29. The team followed that up with a win over Samoa. Most observers believe that the Americans find themselves in the World Cup's Group of Death, where they'll face France, Argentina, England, and Tonga. (As an aside, the
Tonga Toast at Disney's Polynesian resort is absurdly good, especially accompanied by french press coffee, and has the added benefit of carrying enough calories to get you through an entire day.)
Those observers believe that the U.S.A. will be lucky to get one win out of the event, most likely against Tonga. I think we all know what Brian Hightower thinks of that conventional wisdom. The Eagles play England in Kobe on September 26 to kick off their tournament.
As for the rest of the entrants in the 20-team tournament, USA Eagle legend Dan Lyle frames it this way, "I call this the five-five-and-five. You’ve got five teams who can absolutely win it. You’ve got five teams who have beaten those five, and then you’ve got five more below that that have beaten those five."
That first five consists of the legendary All-Blacks of New Zealand, Ireland, England, South Africa, and Wales. A punter putting cash down on any of the other 15 sides is in it for a lark.
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Your likely winners. |
The tournament starts today, with hosts Japan taking on Russia in Tokyo. Ireland are actually the top-ranked side in the world rankings, narrowly ahead of New Zealand. The All-Blacks are the betting favorite at 6/4, having won the previous two World Cups. Ireland's fly half, Jonathan Sexton, was the 2018 world player of the year, but he's battled injuries recently. With him healthy, the Irish are dangerous. Without him, they may not get out of their group. Wales briefly occupied the top spot in the world rankings earlier this year, though they fell to Ireland, 22-17 just a few weeks ago.
Our fearless (and clueless) prognosticators have pooled their limited mental resources. Here's the official G:TB Rugby World Cup prediction:
Pool A: (Ireland, Scotland, Japan, Samoa, Russia)
Winner: Scotland
Runner-Up: Ireland
Faux-knowledgeable Commentary: The hosts are an up-and-comer, and could give the Scots and Irish a tumble, but there's too much quality from the traditional powers.
Pool B: (New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Canada, Namibia)
Winner: South Africa
Runner-Up: New Zealand
Faux-knowledgeable Commentary: They really needn't bother play out all the matches in this one. The drop in quality from the top two teams to the rest is river deep and ocean wide. New Zealand will rest their best players against South Africa, which will give the Springboks a chance to take the group.
Pool C: (England, France, Argentina, USA, Tonga)
Winner: England
Runner-Up: France
Faux-knowledgeable Commentary: What was all that crap about the USA making the semi-finals? Turns out we've never won more than one match in a World Cup, but this year we're gonna beat Tonga and upset Argentina, so...progress! And Remember 1924!
Pool D: (Wales, Australia, Fiji, Georgia, Uruguay)
Winner: Wales
Runner-Up: Fiji
Faux-knowledgeable Commentary: We're going a little out on a limb here. The Fijians are playing (sort of) close to home, they're fast and creative, and we really feel bad about picking chalk in all the rest of the pools. Vei Lomani!
Quarterfinals:
England over Fiji
Ireland over South Africa
Wales over France
New Zealand over Scotland
Semifinals:
Ireland over England
New Zealand over Wales
Finals:
New Zealand over Ireland
And if the All-Blacks do lift their fourth Webb Ellis trophy, the guy second from left in the shot below won't be all that happy. Drunk, but not all that happy:
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If you get Fairfax County Public Access television, you can watch Mr. KQ wax knowledgeable about all things Rugby World Cup while wearing that hat. |
In keeping with our tradition of finding the important things about sports, we'll also call your attention to
a cool review of the kits worn by each of the teams. Rugby shirts sure have come a long way from when they were de rigueur for high school preppy kids. I had a few.
Follow this space for plenty of coverage from Japan. (Note: not likely to be plenty, and probably not from Japan, unless Zman or TR makes another trip there.) There will be plenty of Hightower references here over the next few weeks, though.