So you're telling me there's a chance -- Part 2

While the rest of you are hunkering down for the snowstorm I've been mining the depths of pro-football-reference.com to prove that Jacksonville's defense is overrated. Here's a list of the QBs they played:

- Tom Savage with Deshaun Watson in relief in week 1
- Marcus Mariota (twice)
- Joe Flacco and Ryan Mallett
- Josh McCown
- Ben Roethlisberger
- Jared Goff
- Jacoby Brissett (twice)
- Andy Dalton
- Philip Rivers
- DeShone Kizer
- Blaine Gabbert
- Russell Wilson
- TJ Yates
- Jimmy Garoppolo

Aside from Roethlisberger, Rivers, and Wilson (all three made the Pro Bowl) this is not a particularly distinguished list. At least six of those guys are bad, McCown is a journeyman/replacement level player, and the jury is still out on Mariota, Watson, Goff, and Garoppolo (although the last three admittedly look pretty good). Dalton and Flacco are probably washed up and past their primes.

In the running game they were ranked 21st in yardage and 26th in yards per carry. Not too impressive.

via GIPHY

They absolutely smothered the Ravens, Bengals, Browns, and Texans, holding them all under 200 yards of total offense. But those teams were at or towards the bottom of the league in terms of yardage. Yes, they picked off Big Ben five times and made him contemplate retirement in his post-game press conference, but he still threw for over 300 yards.

By contrast, the Bills faced Tom Brady (twice), Drew Brees, and Philip Rivers--that's four games against Pro Bowlers. They also played Cam Newton and Matt Ryan, the last two league MVPs, and Alex Smith who led the league in QB rating. That's seven games against good QBs and partially explains their 20th ranking in passing yardage. Impressively, they allowed the second-fewest TD and had the sixth-most INT. They are not intimidated by Blake Bortles.

via GIPHY

Ultimately I think the Jaguars defense makes its money via takeaways--they had 33 this year, second most in the NFL. Their 21 INTs were also second in the league, although it's hard to say how impressive this is given the level of QBs they played. Notably, Buffalo turned the ball over 16 times on offense, the sixth fewest in the league. Tyrod Taylor threw only 4 INT and led the league in INT % at 0.95%. So each team's strengths play into the other's. Van der Waals forces and all that.

I can easily see Bortles throwing three picks while the Bills play a clean game, with Buffalo winning 17-13. I can also see Bortles attempting 15 passes with Leonard Fournette getting 35 carries for 150 yards and the Bills going three-and-out every possession, with Jacksonville winning 13-7. Either way I say take the under (right now it's at 39.5 to 40) and the points (Bills are getting 9).

But in my heart I'm taking the Bills. After all, you gotta have faith.

via GIPHY

And if you're really lucky I'll tell you why the intangibles cut in Buffalo's favor.

Snow Day Open Thread

Snow has been falling in parts of the G:TB viewing area since this morning. Since we haven't heard from Whitney, it's probably safe to assume that he's buried and/or drunk. Here in the greater DC area, the precipitation is expected to begin around noon, with some forecast models calling for as much as 45" in my area, and more than 24" in the District proper.

As a public service to the G:TB community, here's an open thread for chronicling your Revenant-like struggles with the impending doomstorm.

And a picture of an old friend.

12 Inches of Snow (times two)

In honor of the metro DC area. And rob's CD collection. And M.C. Shan.