Sugar We're Going Down Swinging

Supporters of the so-called "Other 14" in English soccer watched with a combination of bemusement and horror last week as the "Big Six" joined with three Italian and three Spanish clubs to launch the European Super League. Turned out the ESL owners were flying with waxen wings, and the sun was shining brightly. Karma, as we know, is a bitch.

Rumors now abound regarding the possible penalties the six English clubs (Liverpool, Manchesters City and United, Arsenal, Tottenham Hotspur, and Chelsea) might face as they return to the fold, tails between their legs. Some reasonably credible folks have suggested they face as much as a 30-point penalty in the standings. In reality, they wield too much power for the English Football Association (FA) to do much more than slap their greedy wrists. I'm guessing a transfer ban of some sort.

But if I'm wrong, and the FA's righteous fury becomes the worst case for the six traitors, well that's at least an interesting thought experiment. At the moment Man City is coasting to a third league title in four years, ten points clear of Manchester United with five matches to play. Here's what the current table looks like:

Imagine for a moment the seismic reshuffling that would result from a 30-point deduction. The top four would be:

1. Leicester (59 points)
2. West Ham (55)
3. Everton (52)
4. Manchester City (47)

(It's a measure of City's dominance that a 30-point deduction would still see them likely to qualify for the Champions League.)

Leeds United, Aston Villa, and Wolves would grab Europa League places in this scenario. What's perhaps more interesting is what the relegation battle would look like. The legendary Arsenal would be in dead last, seven points away from safety, one point behind Sheffield United. Tottenham Hotspur would occupy the 18th spot in the table, a point behind Liverpool. Chelsea would probably be safe on 28 points, but it wouldn't be guaranteed.

Oh, and, y'know, Fulham would suddenly be in 15th, four points clear of the relegation zone. Whaddya know about that?

Back here in the real world, Fulham are seven points from safety with five matches to play. They've managed to drop seven points from winning or tied positions in the final 15 minutes of each of their last three matches (in the final minute of two of those three). It does not look good for my guys. 

Unless something changes, Fulham will be relegated for the third time since I've been a supporter of the club. I'm starting to think those greedy dudes who wanted a guaranteed place in the ESL competition might've been on to something.

Come On You Whites! Let's make a miracle. Or let's listen to Bruce Springsteen sing our 2020/21 anthem.

Relegate: Alive?

Please, please, please

When we last looked in on Fulham, the Cottagers were off to a mediocre start, sitting in 18th in the Premiership table having just sacked their manager. Now,with five league matches to play, they...sit in 18th in the Premiership table having recently sacked their manager (again).

While the tight battle at the top of the Premiership has justifiably received a great deal of attention, there's arguably more action down below. With just over a month remaining in the season, ten teams are within 12 points at the bottom of the table.

Fulham are on 27 points through 33 Premiership matches, ahead of only Sunderland (25 points) and Cardiff City (26). The Cottagers trail Norwich City (32) and West Bromwich Albion (32) by five points, with Swansea (33) a point further in front and Crystal Palace (34) and Aston Villa (34) yet one more point clear of the relegation line. Hull City (36) and West Ham United (37) will be forgiven if they consider themselves safe, but might wish to tie up any loose ends, just in case.

Magath has cool specs, bad team

Despite, or perhaps because of its precarious position, Fulham have actually begun to show some life over the past few weeks. The Cottagers topped Aston Villa on Saturday, as halftime substitution Hugo Rodellega scored with four minutes remaining to give the visitors a vital three points. The victory makes two in four for Fulham, who surprised Newcastle at Craven Cottage on March 15.

Fulham Manager Felix Magath, who replaced Rene Muelensteen, who had replaced Martin Jol (to say this year's been a bit of a circus under owner Shahid Khan would give the big top an undeserved black eye) said before the Villa match that his side needed four wins in its final six to avoid relegation. They had seven in the previous 32, which gives a sense of the hill Fulham must climb.

Next Saturday, Norwich City visits Fulham in what essentially amounts to a must-win for the Cottagers. A win would close the gap between the two teams to just a pair of points, and Norwich's final four matches are a murderer's row (home matches against Liverpool and Arsenal sandwiched around road trips to Manchester City and Chelsea).

'Hairy guy in a little tie...'

Fulham closes the Premiership campaign with a visit to Spurs, a home match against middling Hull City, a roadie at Stoke (40 points), and finally, a home tilt against Crystal Palace. Winnable matches all, with the exception of the top-flight Tottenham squad. No other side in the relegation battle faces as many mediocre opponents, with the exception of Sunderland, who has oddly played only 30 matches thus far. Jozy Altidore and his mates face Cardiff, West Brom, and Swansea, in addition to five of the league's top teams.

It will still take some doing, and some help from others, but Fulham's slight stirring under Magath has the Craven Cottage faithful holding out hopes. Not. Dead. Yet.

Relegate (Sung to the Tune of 'Celebrate')

Fulham lost a desultory 3-0 match to West Ham yesterday. The loss was the Cottagers' fifth in a row in Barclays Premier League play, and dropped them to 18th in the league table. Owner Shahid Khan (of the Jacksonville Khans) sacked skipper Martin Jol in a move that the internet cognoscenti (led by Sports Illustrated's terrific Andy Glockner - @andyglockner, if you're not already following him) have long advocated.

18th place is fairly dismal just on its own, but in European soccer's particular brand of Darwinian survivalism, the teams finishing in the Premiership's last three spots each season are demoted, replaced with three squads from the Championship. So roughly midway through the season, Fulham, a generally reliably mid-table squad, finds itself squarely in danger of relegation.

Since 2001, the Cottagers have competed at the top level of English soccer, earning a Europa League berth in 2010. Now, though, after selling star forward Clint Dempsey to Tottenham and watching Belgian international Moussa Dembele join Spurs, as well, Fulham has become a dreadfully boring, offensively challenged side. Glockner's plot of the squad's rolling average shots on goal in comparison with their opponents' is telling:

After a 12th place finish in 2012-13, Fulham have started this season 3-9-1, scoring 11 goals and allowing 24. In their last six matches (five losses and a win), they've managed a total of four shots on goal.

In short, they suck.

But this isn't a post about Fulham, per se. It's the beginning of a series on relegation. We don't have such a thing in U.S. sports, so it's a foreign concept to most of us. Fulham's my chosen Premiership side, on the strength of the club's history with American players (and unwillingness to pick one of the obvious choices). And while I confess to not having immersed myself deeply in the club's fortunes, I do follow them.

With 25 matches left, Fulham have lots of opportunity to reverse course and get out of danger. Interim skipper Rene Meulensteen gets a shot at Tottenham on Wednesday, and Khan certainly has the money to pursue new players in the January transfer window - it's in his interest to spend, because the economic impact of a demotion is estimated at 25 million pounds per year.

Since I won't have to worry about a national championship football game this season, I'll turn my attention to Fulham's fight to stay in the Premiership. Stay tuned.

Preview of EPL Relegation Battle Sunday

With one week left in the 2010-11 EPL season, Manchester United has been crowned champion. But we're not here to talk about them. We're here to discuss the losers clubs in the league. Man U will field a squad of reserves to play a match this Sunday that is totally meaningless to them, yet profoundly important to their opponent, 17th place Blackpool. Blackpool is one of three teams tied for 17th-19th place with 39 points (others are Birmingham and Wigan Athletic). Two of these three teams will join West Ham and be relegated to the Championship League next year. In the event some teams remain tied in points, the first tiebreaker is goal differential. The three teams in the mix have goal differentials of -20 to -22. So all three of these teams will have to win big or cross their fingers they don't get dumped.

Our friend at the cyber-carcass once known as the Wheelhouse has discussed this process in more detail than me in the past, but it is worth repeating that the stakes are enormous for these teams. By keeping their membership in the EPL, the teams secure themselves a hefty revenue stream for TV rights, increased merchandise sales, larger-breasted groupies and all the other good stuff that comes from playing in a larger league.

So what do we have on tap this weekend? Here are the three matches affecting relegation. If you plan to watch any/all of these, be warned that all league matches will start at the same time (11 AM ET on Sunday) to avoid teams changing strategy based on prior results in the week.

Birmingham (-20 goal differential) @ Tottenham Hotspur. Unfortunately for Birmingham, this game has meaning for Tottenham, as it looks to lock up a 5th place finish and secure a place in next year's Europa League, the junior version of the Champions League. Despite possibly qualifying for this tourney, this year is disappointing for a squad that thought it could climb to the top four in the standings again and make a repeat showing at next year's Champions League tournament, after an impressive quarterfinals visit in this year's tourney. But the team still had an admirable year and will be playing in front of its home fans, who will likely be okay with the Europa League, where Spurs has the potential to dominate. Birmingham will need to sack up and show it belongs in the EPL. The squad has absolutely fallen apart to slide into the relegation zone. It has earned only 1 point in its last 5 matches. They will need to stop one of the best young players in the league, rising English star Gareth Bale. And they won't.
Prediction: 3-0 victory for Spurs.


Blackpool (-21 goal differential) @ Manchester United. Blackpool may have the toughest match-up of the teams in danger, but this game is merely a glorified exhibition for Man U. It has nothing to play for and will avoid exposing any valuable players to injury six days before the Champions League finals. But that said, Man U's reserves would probably be a mid-level squad in the EPL. And the match will be a rare showcase for some hungry youngsters auditioning for playing time next season. Blackpool has admirably fought over the last month to try to escape the cellar. It earned six points in its last four matches, including a 4-3 win last week against the (Michael) Bolton Wanderers. The team is showing some heart and some firepower, and we think it will hang in with the Man U back-ups.
Prediction: 2-2 tie.

Wigan Athletic (-22 goal differential) @ Stoke City. Stoke City is at the top of a log-jam in the middle of the standings, where the 9th-14th place teams are separated by only two points. They may have some financial motivation to hold down 9th place, but that would involve work on my end. And, as we know, this is difficult to do with the internet. And I am lazy. So we'll just assume they have little to play for. Stoke City has gone 2-2-2 in their last six, proving they are every bit as average as we think they are. Wigan Athletic, the worst positioned team facing relegation, has played pretty well recently, going 2-1-2 in its last five matches. It beat West Ham 3-2 last week to secure West Ham's relegation, which is like beating up a special ed kid to feel better about yourself. But Stoke City is no punching bag. It is more like Warren.
Prediction: 2-1 victory for Stoke City. Franks and beans, bitches.

Conclusion.Based on my inane and ignorant predictions, we have Blackpool edging out Birmingham and Wigan Athletic. So apologies to Birmingham, the city that spawned Black Sabbath, and Wigan, the city that spawned the World Pie Eating Competition. And Kajagoogoo. For reals.


We now return you to your regularly scheduled programming. Look for a Champions League preview post, which has a 40% chance of seeing the light of day.