Change of Address

We’re pollen-coated ass-deep into Spring, which means the start of Major League Baseball and playoffs in the NBA and NHL. So of course we’re going to offer a few words about second-tier college football. Never say we can’t scratch a niche. 

William and Mary, at least the third-favorite college for many in the audience, recently announced that it would move its football program from its long-time home in the Coastal Athletic Association (formerly the Colonial) to the Patriot League, beginning in 2026. The move makes sense for both cultural and competitive reasons. 

The Tribe’s primary football rivals, Richmond, James Madison and Delaware, all departed for other locations; JMU and Delaware climbed upward to the Football Bowl Subdivision, Richmond moved laterally to W&M’s future home in the Patriot beginning this coming season. The CAA’s distended conglomeration that now includes the likes of Stony Brook, Hampton U., Monmouth, Albany, Campbell and North Carolina A&T doesn’t much move the needle for Team Tribe. 

The Patriot, meanwhile, is a collection of schools whose profiles more closely resemble W&M, in size and academic standing. It was also a relatively light lift, since W&M’s move is football only. The rest of the school’s athletic teams will continue to compete in the CAA. 

A segment of Team Tribe has pushed for years, with varying degrees of force, to join the Patriot. Again, like-minded schools, particularly as CAA expansion brought in colleges with little in common to replace the league’s better known programs. But that wasn’t and isn’t William and Mary’s call entirely. The Patriot is comprised of small, private schools – undergrad enrollments range from Lafayette’s 2,764 to Fordham’s 10,337 – that were and are justifiably concerned about getting Bigfooted by W&M’s broad-based athletic program. 

For many years, the Patriot also didn’t permit its schools to offer athletic scholarships, providing only what’s called need-based financial aid, a la the Ivy League. But more than a decade ago, conference Big Hats concluded that athletic grants weren’t a path to academic ruin and allowed their athletic programs to pony up. As a result, Patriot football is more competitive regionally and certainly with the CAA, which in its heyday was one of the nation’s best FCS conferences. 

William and Mary athletic director Brian Mann explained to a former colleague that the football move came about relatively quickly – in discussions over just a few weeks – and that football-only makes sense now and for the foreseeable future. CAA football is a separate entity from the rest of the conference. It has/had adjunct members Richmond, Villanova, Maine, New Hampshire and Rhode Island, schools whose entire programs compete in other conferences, and de-coupling was easier than a full move. He is quoted in the piece: “I don’t think anybody at this time is ready for a big decision like that. We’re happy with where we are in the CAA, and (the Patriot League is) happy with their full membership. And with all the changes coming to college athletics, any sort of a change like that right now feels premature.” 

“Premature” is an interesting word choice. College administrators – the more effective ones, anyway – are usually precise with language and can be as vague or specific as necessary. Given Mann’s entire thought, “premature” reads more like “not yet” rather than “not interested.” Indeed, former athletic director Terry Driscoll told my comrade in that same piece that W&M had discussions with the Patriot on three occasions during his tenure, without a move. 

Patriot League affiliation may be a single-sport endeavor for William and Mary, or it may be a wade into the shallow end of the pool for consideration of full membership down the line. In any case, it continues the Tribe’s historic rivalry with Richmond as a conference game. And rumblings that Villanova football will also move from the CAA to the Patriot would further enhance the league and give Coach Mike London’s program one more familiar foe. College power brokers sweat and fret over a shifting landscape with new seven- and eight-figure expenditures and legal taffy pulls. Meanwhile, schools down the food chain that simply want kids to be able to compete and to proudly represent the laundry can only hope to find their appropriate depth. Ain’t easy. Athletic officials all earn their keep these days.

This Week in Wrenball: The Preview

We here at the digital tree fort are creatures of habit with a sporting bent that sometimes straddles the line between optimistic and quixotic. As the calendar flips to November, we cast an eye toward the annual exercise in ‘what if:’ William and Mary basketball. 

The Tribe kicks off Nov. 6 against Regent University, the late evangelist Pat Robertson’s tidy enclave in Virginia Beach. Unless the competition includes moot court versus Regent’s mostly well regarded law school, the Tribe should have little trouble. After that, however, the schedule mostly gets stickier. 

There are the usual non-conference matchups versus state and regional opponents and a couple of sweet road trips (hellooooo, Malibu!) before diving into the CAA schedule after the first of the year. That’s “Coastal” Athletic Association now, by the way, with the recent additions of schools such as Campbell and North Carolina A&T, located in the seaside towns of Buies Creek and Greensboro, N.C., respectively. 

William and Mary was picked to finish eighth in the league with a roster that’s overhauled from last season’s eighth-place finish. Odd result aside, the Tribe again appears well short of the top tier of Charleston and UNC Wilmington, and looking up at the second tier of Drexel, Hofstra, Delaware and Towson. 

W&M returns two starters in 6-8 Noah Collier, a solid inside presence whose season was cut short by injury last February, and 6-6 wing and 3-point marksman Gabe Dorsey, as well as seven other contributors, all of whom averaged less than five points per game. The Wrens return 46 percent of their scoring, 64 percent of their rebounding and 29 percent of their assists from a year ago. They added three transfers: 6-4 guard Sean Houpt, a 1,000-point scorer at D2 Florida Tech; Caleb Dorsey, a 6-8, 235-pound forward who bolted Penn State after former VCU coach Mike Rhoades arrived; and Trey Moss, a 6-3 sophomore from South Florida. 

W&M certainly could have used 6-8 forward and two-year starter Ben Wight and his 800 career points and 400 rebounds, as well as point guard Tyler Rice, who made the CAA’s All-Rookie Team two years ago but found himself buried on the bench and increasingly disenchanted last season in lieu of grad transfer Anders Nelson. Both elected to leave, Wight for the University of Toledo (he completed his undergrad degree at W&M and he’s an Ohio native) and Rice for East Tennessee State. 

Which brings us to the guy at the helm. Dane Fischer enters his fifth season with a 46-68 overall record (.404 winning percentage) and 28-36 in conference play (.437) – both marks enhanced by his first season when he inherited Tribe all-timer and future pro Nathan Knight. W&M is 18-47 overall (.276) and 11-25 (.305) in the CAA the past two seasons. Far be it from me to stump for a coach’s termination, but the suits and checkbooks who evaluate such things will have ample material to judge if the Tribe produces a third consecutive season of gruel. 

It wasn’t always this way (here’s where Rob’s left eye begins to twitch and his blood pressure spikes) [ET TU, DAVE?!?]. Fischer’s predecessor Tony Shaver made W&M hoops competitive and relevant. The Wrens finished in the top four of the CAA each of his last six seasons. His teams won 20 games four times, made four CAA Tournament title games, three semifinals and went to the NIT twice. But following a quarterfinal loss in the 2019 tournament, She Who Shall Not Be Named turfed him in a public display of ego over accomplishment. 

Which brings us to where we, and the program, are now. There’s no telling how Shaver would have navigated the transfer portal and NIL situations. Inarguable, though, is the fact that he had developed a system that attracted suitable talent and was heavy on development and continuity, essential components for a program without some of the advantages (cough cough, admissions, cough, cough, eligibility curricula) many competitors enjoy. 

Some may think it’s time to shelve the past and move on. Focus on the future and paths to improvement. Moving on completely from the irrational firing of Shaver, however, is a big ask. Have Armenians forgiven and moved past the Turkish Ottoman Empire genocide of the early 20th century? Have Ukrainians forgotten Stalin and the Holomodor of the 1930s? Have St. Louis Cardinals fans forgiven and moved on from Don Denkinger in the 1985 World Series? They have not. The ability to function in polite society and simultaneously hold a low-flame grudge for years if not decades is what separates us from the primates. 

Regardless of whether the Wrens are on your wradar, college basketball season is upon us, itself a reason for good cheer. An abundance of players and teams and games and stories. Decide for yourself if modest expectations are preferable to unrestrained optimism, if anything short of contending for titles is failure or if honest competition is satisfactory. We know which is better for the digestive system. On the other hand, sports-induced gastric discomfort is often temporary. Plan accordingly.

Wrenball Update: CAA Second Half

It's been really relaxing now that I've outsourced Wrenball to an actual professional. Herewith, a look at the CAA from our man at the beach:

We interrupt your pursuits, large and small, for a glance at Where Dreams Run into Bridge Abutments, otherwise known as William and Mary hoops, and the Colonial Athletic Association. The conference season just passed the halfway point, and while plenty of games remain, conclusion jumping is never out of style. 

The Tribe sits in the muddied middle of a league in the middle of the Division I landscape – 18th out of 32 conferences, ahead of the Mid-American, Southern and Patriot leagues, behind the Ivy, Sun Belt and Missouri Valley. Preseason expectations have mostly played out, though it’s worth noting that league records are unequal in a 13-team conference playing an 18-game schedule. 

Some schedules are pricklier than others, depending on time, travel and the scheduling algorithm’s sadism level. College of Charleston has had the best season so far and sits atop the league, though just a game ahead of Towson and Hofstra, and two games up on UNC Wilmington in what appears to be a three-tiered setup. The Tribe is among a pigpile that includes Drexel, North Carolina A&T, Delaware, Northeastern and Stony Brook. Elon and newbies Hampton and Monmouth are at the bottom. 

The Wrens (9-14, 4-6) already matched last season’s conference win total and nearly doubled their total wins, so progress? That said, they have played mostly to type. They’ve beaten only two teams currently with winning records (Army and UNCW) and have been bounced regularly by teams higher up the food chain, as well as folks at their own trough. They shoot reasonably well (third in the league in FG percentage, first in 3-point percentage), though curiously not from the foul line (11th of 13 teams). They defend poorly (11th in FG percentage defense) and commit more turnovers than they generate. 

Some of it may be due to roster churn, as the program incorporated nine new players. The one-year lease of guard Anders Nelson has been a positive experiment. The former D3 All-American from St. Thomas in Minnesota is the leading scorer (11.9 ppg) and leads the conference in assists (104). He’s a 48.5-percent shooter and would lead the league in 3-point shooting (.465) if he had enough attempts. He's totaled 49 on 15-for-16 shooting in the past two games. Forward Gabe Dorsey, a 6-6 soph who began his career at Vanderbilt, is the No. 2 scorer and a capable shooter himself (45 percent overall and from 3). Junior forward Noah Collier (Pittsburgh) is the league’s No. 2 rebounder. In fact, the transfer portal appears to have been a benefit, as four of the top five scorers are imports. 

The remaining schedule sets up favorably, as they face only two teams above .500 in the league, Towson and the Dubs - both at home. Eight or nine wins are not an unreasonable goal. However, that doesn’t sniff the top of the conference. Charleston (21-2, 9-1) is an interesting study. The Cougars were unbeaten in the league, ranked and sporting a 20-game win streak until a loss to Hofstra last weekend. Coach Pat Kelsey obviously knows what he’s doing, having averaged 20 wins over nine seasons at Winthrop before relocating to the Town That Sparked Sedition. He overhauled the roster with transfers and recruits, and has taken off in year two. They space the floor, launch a ton of 3-pointers, rebound enthusiastically, and still get to the free throw line. They’re top 25 in scoring nationally (80.1 ppg). Five guys average between 10 and 13 points per game. They lead the nation in 3-point attempts, are 10th in made 3-pointers per game, and 48 percent of their shots are from behind the arc. Seven guys have made at least 17 treys. Yet they also have made more free throws (344) than their opponents have attempted (313). 

Hofstra didn’t so much provide a blueprint for how to beat the Cougars as demonstrate how such a game likely must play out. First, it didn’t hurt to have defending Player of the Year Aaron Estrada and his vitals. The Pride made half of its 3-point shots, which helped offset Charleston’s 31-8 advantage in free throw attempts, and the Cougars made just 5 of 31 shots from 3, half of their per game average. If they had shot poorly instead of miserably, they would have won. 

Peculiar result aside, going undefeated in the conference wasn’t going to happen. No CAA team has done so, and only three teams have finished with one loss: two of David Robinson’s Navy teams and a late ‘80s Richmond squad under Dick Tarrant. CofC also presents an intriguing possibility for the CAA getting two teams into the NCAA Tournament. The league last had multiple teams in the NCAAs in 2011, with Old Dominion, George Mason and VCU, and the Rams went to the Final Four. 

Say the Cougars go 7-1 down the stretch, which would make them 16-2 in the league, 28-3 overall. If they lose in the CAA tournament semifinal or final, that would make them 29 or 30-4, with an NCAA NET ranking in the 40s or 50s (they’re currently 61) and an attractive at-large candidate. Could happen. 

The Cougs are good, but hardly unbeatable, as Hofstra demonstrated. Towson carried them to overtime, and they edged UNCW by two. Towson, the preseason favorite, is the league’s hottest team, winners of six in a row. The Tigers (16-7, 8-2) are seasoned, balanced and physical, led by the trio of all-conference wing Nicolas Timberlake, Cam Holden and 6-7, 245-pound Charles Thompson, who combine for 42 points and 18 rebounds per game. Like Towson teams from way back, they'll bounce you around like a cement mixer.

Hofstra (15-8, 8-2) has won three in a row and eight of 10 and is the league’s best shooting team. They’re fueled by the 6-3 Estrada, who leads the league in scoring (21.3 ppg), fellow senior guard Tyler Thomas and mellifluously named 6-8 forward Darlinstone Dubar. UNCW (17-6, 7-3) has an abundance of guards and wings, led by 6-6 soph Trazarien White (13.4 ppg, 5.7 rpg). Seven Seahawks average between five and 14 points per game, and they’re the league’s most statistically effective defense. Quality players capable of heating up for a game or two are sprinkled throughout the league, but if at least three of the current top four teams don’t make the conference tournament semifinals, the train has jumped the track. Wager accordingly.

[So you're saying the Tribe doesn't have a chance. Tough but fair.]