Geo, Gio, Let's Go USA!

Geopolitical intrigues are an inescapable element of global sporting events, and a World Cup awarded under highly questionable circumstances in a country with a poor human rights record during a time of wide-ranging dislocation has been predictably fraught. I'm here, eventually, to talk about the USMNT's must-win match tomorrow against Iran, but it's hard to do that without discussing context, some of which conspires to make the Iranians a sympathetic bunch, and ain't that something.

There's been plenty of reporting on the Qatari authorities' uneven (read: bullying) treatment of fans wearing things in support of LGBTQ+ and women's rights. I commend to you Grant Wahl's work, for one. As it pertains to Iran in particular, the team and fans have found themselves at odds with the nation's Supreme Leader and ruling council.

In September a 22 year-old Iranian woman named Mahsa Amini was detained by morality police for not wearing a headscarf in contravention of the law. She later died in a hospital in Tehran from injuries suffered at the hands of the authorities. Since then, a large number of Iranians have kept up a sustained show of protest in support of women's rights. More than 400 protestors, including 60 children, have been killed in the time since Amini's death.

The Iranian men's national soccer team has found themselves enmeshed in the protests. Prolific striker Sardar Azmoun posted the following on Instagram the week before the World Cup started, “The ultimate (punishment for speaking out) is to be kicked out of the national team, which is a small price to pay for even a single strand of Iranian women’s hair. Shame on you for easily killing the people and viva women of Iran. Long live Iranian women!”

Coincidentally, the announcement of coach Carlos Querioz's final roster for the tournament in Qatar was delayed by several hours before Azmoun's name was finally added. Iranian right-back Voria Ghafouri wasn't selected for the squad, and was arrested three days ago for his outspoken support of the protestors. The Iranian men stood silently rather than sing the country's national anthem before Team Melli's first match of the World Cup against England. Conspicuously amid reports of threats by the Iranian authorities, the team did sing the anthem prior to their win over Wales last Friday.

To complicate matters, American interests weighed in over the past few days in ways that certainly didn't help. First, former USMNT manager Jurgen Klinsmann came under fire from Queiroz for comments about the Iranian team's (and South American players, as well) gamesmanship and physicality. For what it's worth, I think folks are overreacting a bit, but I haven't walked in their shoes:

This is unbelievable…

Watch @J_Klinsmann dismiss brown athletes, from Iran to Guatemala, repeatedly saying “this is their culture”, while the host and other guests are sitting there listening to him go on and on, live on @BBCSport.pic.twitter.com/RgOR3b1sr0

— Negar Mortazavi نگار مرتضوی (@NegarMortazavi) November 26, 2022

Queiroz came out guns blazing, accusing Klinsmann of character assassination and demanding FIFA remove him from its Technical Study Group. Speaking of gamesmanship.

Then, someone at U.S. Soccer decided to post the Iranian flag sans the logo of the Islamic Republic as part of its social media header image (which included the flags of all of our group stage opponents) in support of the protests by the Iranian people. It appears that this move wasn't coordinated with the team (or the State Department, for that matter), and a small show of support turned into something that forced the U.S. players to answer questions of a hostile foreign media and gave Queiroz one more bit of bulletin board material. Ham-handed, at best. 

So as we finally turn to tomorrow's match, we find ourselves in the strange position of supporting the Iranian men and their courageous, if necessarily limited, stand against their nation's leadership while needing them to lose. After Team Melli beat Wales, 2-0, and the U.S. played England to a scoreless draw, Iran have one more point than the USMNT headed into the final match of the group stage. A draw will see Iran through. The USMNT must win. And that's a dangerous combination for a young team that hasn't shown an ability to score.

Give us Gioooooooo!

The match could go a couple of ways. Iran will almost certainly sit back, dare the U.S. to show it can break them down, and hope to take advantage of the U.S. pushing forward to hit us on the counter. If the match gets to halftime scoreless, Gregg Berhalter will have no choice but to throw on more attacking players, increasing the risk at the back end. If we're 0-0 at the half, I think we're in trouble.

On the other hand, the U.S. will press from the beginning. I expect (hope?) to see Gio Reyna in the starting lineup, even if that means we won't play a traditional striker so Reyna, Christian Pulisic, Tim Weah, and Yunus Musah can be on the field at the same time. If we get an early goal, that'll force Iran out of its shell and would likely mean we'll see a wide open game. I like our chances in that scenario - bar one rash challenge from Walker Zimmerman against Wales, the USMNT back line (with a monster assist from the indefatigable Tyler Adams) has been stout.

Very, very cautiously, I think we win, 2-0. Any other result is possible, and in fact I think the next most likely scoreline is 0-0. 

The last time we met Iran in a World Cup, the famously dysfunctional 1998 USMNT squad lost, 2-1, in France. Team Melli are fast, hard-nosed, and technical. This game is a crapshoot, with some of the off-field cards stacked against our youngsters. Will might matter more than skill tomorrow. 

I picked the wrong week to quit drinking. Though I did bring some gummies home from Boulder.