We've been awash in a sea of conflicting covid-19 information since the beginning of the crisis. I think I've found some good news amid this morass of confusion.
Our adaptive immune systems primarily involve two types of cells: B cells and T cells. It appears that T cells are more predominant when it comes to beating covid-19. You can read about it here.
In July 2020, a group of European scientists published an article in Nature describing how they tested a bunch of people who never had coivd-19 and found that about 35% of them had a T cell response. They attribute this to exposure to other coronaviruses. This means that about 35% of the population might have some preexisting immunity to covid-19. That's good news!
I learned about this from a friend who is probably the smartest guy I know (sorry Dave). He also posits that about 2% of the population of NJ already tested positive, which means that about 20% of NJ had the virus (the CDC says the true infection rate is about 10 times higher than reported).
Taken together, about 55% of the people in NJ should have some sort of immune response to the virus so we're close to the level needed for herd immunity. That's good news too!
This conclusion is further validated by my barber. I subscribe to a theory I call The Wisdom of Barbers. Barbers spend the day shooting the shit with men of all ages, ethnicities, races, backgrounds, and socioeconomic status. As a result they gather in an insanely broad range of views on whatever topic the feel like discussing and they can often crystallize that information into a prediction about the future. My old barber ran a presidential election poll for over 20 years and it was always right.
Anyway, I got a haircut the other day at my local barbershop, an uncle-and-nephew team who may or may not take your action on NFL games. My friend who told me about the European study also gets his hair cut there, so I asked the nephew if my friend told him about it too. The nephew said "No, but I read a paper published through the NIH and it says the number could be as high as 50%." I found the article in Science and he's right. This is more good news!
All of that said, my friend an my barber are both conservatives. My friend hates Trump but he's also a bit of a Blue Lives Matter guy (stuff like "If he had just listened to the police he wouldn't have gotten shot."). My barber voted for Trump and I'm pretty sure he will do so again (he's a Ben Shapiro fan). The fact that they and no one other than zdaughter's speech therapist (who may be kinda Trumpy too) talks about this makes me wonder if it's a right wing talking point.
I suspect it's both. For once, Republicans are speaking the truth and the virus will soon run its course, turning into nothing more than a relatively routine but life-threatening infection like measles. I predict this will happen around mid-October.
Why then? Because that's two weeks before the election. Of course this is when the virus will clear up. My old barber with the straw poll once told me "If you're ever at the race track and you see Bill Clinton, bet like he does. That lucky bastard could bet on a three-legged horse and still win." This is true--his shitty shenanigans never resulted in any real penalties and he's even allowed to speak publicly despite #MeToo. Trump is the same guy, a bizzarro Cill Clinton. Of course our T cells will save his lucky ass right in time to get reelected.
I eagerly await the FDA's approval of Trump brand T cells, yours for only $500 a dose or free when you buys a one year membership to any Trump brand golf club.
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15 comments:
RIP Uncle Cliffy. Dead at 53. Damn.
53 is too damn young. I guess barber wisdom is something I miss out on by doing my own with clippers.
Yesterday I delivered to an orthopedic office. A man and his wife were sitting in their truck and watched me gather my stuff, mask up, and head in. Back at the car a few minutes later, he cracked his window and said "Love that mask, don't ya?". I told him I'm trying to help get this thing over with, and that wearing it for a few minutes is really not a hardship. He acted like he understood my point, and did not respond.
The checkout line at the local Target is legit 100 pp deep. I’m all-in, unfortunately, having picked up a bunch of random, necessary things.
the oral history of zman's struggles to get this post up is gonna be a must read.
New blogger blows almost as much as the Yankees’ bullpen.
professional outing by the magicians. easily could've mailed that in after halftime, but scared the bucks down the stretch even as undermanned as they were.
There's a joke to be made among "oral," "history," "zman's" and "get this ... up" but it's likely at my own expense so I won't make it.
The Magic werecomically short handed during the series against Milwaukee. The played hard as hell though. I’m cautiously optimistic about their future. A lot of ifs, though. If Fultz continues to develop. If Isaac can get healthy. If they can trade Gordon for some perimeter help. Far less questions if they don’t completely blow the Bamba pick.
i think zman's friend is right . . . i've read the same-- if you've had a few colds, you may be fine with covid.
of course, there's some well-vetted science that says that is dead wrong . . .
https://www.npr.org/2020/08/07/900323554/why-herd-immunity-wont-save-us
more importantly, i just published an epic new post on medium.
https://medium.com/@greasetruck/teach-your-teenager-to-think-poker-ca4a4a4df019?sk=d2074068bdfee2e605cb1d3ef1203a29
speaking of teenagers, my college freshman volunteered to learn how to provide emergency first aid to someone suffering an opioid overdose. she's now equipped with knowledge and narcan. did not see that coming. she's a good egg, that kid.
'course, she also told me that she's going to get tinder. so, a mixed bag.
Spent the day in New Smyrna Beach yesterday with the kid and wife on the beach and eating at one of our favorite restaurants (The Garlic). Met up with the in-laws at Hammock Beach for the next three days. It’s not a huge vacation but it’s not my house.
Mark and I seem to be on the same page. Team TR had an overnight at the beach this week, and has had BBQ dinners at friends the last two nights. Both were situations where they were due to host us. Nice that we rackEd up that goodwill over the winter months.
Unrelated - my hottest take on the Doncic - Morris “altercation” is that I am furious that no Mavs jumped in Morris’ face after Ir happened. Doncic definitely sold it a bit, but his teammates need to set a tone and get in his face. There were enough subs out there. When they all mill around like wussies, it’s an embarrassment.
One in all in. Nothing less.
Unless it's Marls in an Ali Haji-Sheikh tee shirt.
Jamal Murray is a bad bad man.
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