The Demise of Cinderella

Upheaval within college sports has created all manner of change for both participants and observers, not the least of which is a quantum leap in billable hours. Attorneys and entire firms have profited from those who contend that capitalist practices should extend to those who do the work regardless of their age, as well as from those who dug in their heels behind the thought: How come we can’t do it the way we’ve always done it? 

Conference realignment and consolidation, player pay and unrestricted movement, and Indiana University football ascension were always going to be jarring and difficult to grasp, not to mention expensive. But once colleges accepted television money to broadcast games and that money grew into multi-billion-dollar contracts and eight-figure payouts, it would inevitably lead to somewhere close to where we are now. 

Though on balance the developments are good, or at least more equitable, for the labor force, i.e., athletes, there would in turn be fallout that altered perspective and fandom and perhaps even the attraction of a team, a sport or an event. Which brings us to the NCAA Tournament and the gradual demise of the lower-tier conference program that makes a surprise run. 

The tournament nearly always ends up as a showcase of the sport’s best and most talented teams, but one of its beauties has been unlikely runs by programs outside the national spotlight: George Mason to the Final Four in 2006, Davidson and Steph Curry to the Elite Eight in 2008, VCU going from the First Four to the Final Four in 2011; Florida Gulf Coast (“Dunk City”) to the Sweet 16 as a 15-seed in 2013, eleven-seed Loyola-Chicago to the Final Four in 2018, St. Peter’s to the Elite Eight as a 15-seed in 2022. 

No such disruption this year. The Sweet 16 is all power conference programs. The closest we got was 12-seed High Point of the Big South Conference taking out Wisconsin in the first round, then playing Arkansas close before falling in the round of 32. VCU and Saint Louis of the Atlantic 10 both won their first-round games before getting bounced decisively by Big Ten teams in the second round. 

 The notion that Texas is a Cinderella because the Longhorns are an 11-seed is laughable. They’re a member of the SEC and have one of the largest athletic budgets in the country. They’re the privileged kid who scuffled along in college all year, but still got a cushy summer internship because of family connections. 

The last time there was a significant party crashing was 2023, when San Diego State and Florida Atlantic made the Final Four and Princeton advanced to the Sweet 16. For the second consecutive year, no team seeded 13-16 won a tournament game in the main draw. 

Get used to it. 

The formula for under-the-radar teams making a tournament run used to be a veteran group that had played together for several years and whose age and experience could offset the talent disparity against marquee programs, or a mid-major program that landed an under-recruited prospect or two to supplement an already solid roster. That’s become more difficult to pull off because of the transfer portal and budgets and NIL money that permit power conference schools to pay players. 

Indeed, the Sweet 16 is littered with players who began their careers elsewhere – not only jumps between power conference schools but smaller programs. Arizona has players from Harvard and Campbell. Michigan State has players from Harvard and Florida Atlantic. Alabama has transfers from Cal State Fullerton and Pepperdine. Nebraska has players who started at Rhode Island and Tulsa. Iowa State stud Joshua Jefferson began his career at St. Mary’s. 

Maybe the most visible example of movement and money is at Iowa, which knocked off defending champ Florida. Hawkeyes coach Ben McCollum won four Division 2 national championships at Northwest Missouri State, and two years ago was hired by Drake of the Missouri Valley Conference. Several of his players followed him to Drake, where they won the league title in his first season and upset Missouri in the NCAAs. Iowa hired him a year ago, and star guard Bennett Stirtz, who began his career with McCollum at Northwest Mizzou and went with him to Drake, followed him to Iowa along with three other Drake players. The kid who hit the winning shot against Florida last weekend was previously at Robert Morris. 

Point being that continuity and team development take hits in the present landscape. High-level recruits move because they see a better opportunity or more money elsewhere. Productive mid-major players are plucked away by power conference programs who seek to fill holes with seasoned players and can pay more. NIL money may keep some players who don’t have pro talent in college longer, but the guess is that players who stay at a school for three or four years and true NCAA Cinderellas will dwindle. The tournament remains the best event in sports, but loses a touch of magic and unpredictability in service to the young folks who provide the thrill. A fair trade.

Signs of Spring

It's not just an ORF theme any more - it's a filler post!

At 8:05 pm EST tonight in San Francisco, Logan Webb will throw out the first pitch of the 2026 Major League Baseball season. As noted by the sage Marls, it's not Opening Day, at least not for teams that matter - that's tomorrow, when the schedule includes 11 games, but it's a harbinger and a dawn at the same time.

NCAA Tournament Open Thread

Back in the day, I used to routinely take off work on the first Friday of the NCAA Tournament and head to a bar (Grevey's in Falls Church more than a few times) to watch hoops from noon to midnight. I miss those days. In memoriam, here's some Madness.

Special Gheorghasbord: World Cup Edition

We're 86 days away from the start of the 2026 World Cup, when Mexico hosts South Africa in Mexico City. Until that time, the organizers will no doubt be holding their collective breath, hoping no more ill-fitting Florsheims will drop. 

Meanwhile, the first (and I'm betting only) recipient of the FIFA Peace Prize is stumbling oafishly through one ill-conceived international crisis of choice after another. His pointless war with Iran may cost the tournament a participant, as the Iranians have made noises questioning whether they'll participate in the event. Says here they won't be the last country to consider withdrawal, and that more than one nation will have a difficult time securing visas for their athletes.

At the same time, America's global follies seem to be off-putting to fans of other nations, who aren't yet booking travel to the U.S. in predicted numbers. This is a shocking turn of events. Harry Carr, Pivot Hotels & Resorts’ senior vice president of commercial optimization, told Forbes, “We are much less bullish about World Cup than we were three months ago," adding that "FIFA sent back some of the company’s room-block holds without a single reservation having been made for the tournament."

Let's be clear about something. I loathe FIFA and its still-corrupt fuck you, pay me approach to the global game. I hate that our President and his toadies will likely try to wrap themselves around the flag while the World Cup take place here (and in Mexico and Canada). I won't be paying the extortionate prices for tickets to a live match. 

But I'll be watching all of it, goddammit. I'm a weak and predictable man.

And while I watch, I'll be enjoying the USMNT's kits. One of them, anyway.

The Athletic released an interesting piece yesterday about the design process for this year's kits. Seems the players were less than thrilled by 2022's fairly basic look and wanted a say. The athletes wanted something iconic, and they wanted something they could wear with jeans to the club. Seriously.

Fair to say Nike delivered on both counts. 

The home kit is uniquely American, with the stripes of the flag waving and offering a sense of motion. I assume (hope) they'll pair it with blue shorts and white or blue socks. It's distinctive, evocative, and even fun. 

On the other hand, the away kit is much more reserved. It's a deep, near-black Navy blue with metallic stars that'll be visible up close but hard to make out at a distance. The badge and the Nike logo are designed to blend into the shirt, as well. Hoping for white shorts and matching socks for this one, which I find just okay. It'd look good with a pair of light-wash jeans, though, and it seems to be the favorite of many of the players.

86 days. Let's hope we get there.

Make America Fuck Again

In case you had any doubt about Sturgill Simpson's intent, the first track on his new record is the title of this post. The album starts strong, dirty, and slinky, and it stays in that pocket.

Simpson told everyone that he wants them to illegal stream it, and lots of someones posted it. Recorded under the name of his alter-ego, Johnny Blue Skies and the Dark Clouds, "Mutiny After Midnight" is funky and gritty, with more than a nod to the 70s, and just a tinge of country. And lots and lots of innuendo. Track four is entitled, "Stay On That D", and while it's about playing in a live band, we see what you're up to, Sturgill.

After it was leaked, it was taken down and now it's hard to find online. But I got to hear the whole thing, and as the kids say, it fucks. Listen to "Situation", which contains the lyric, "Ever since the day we met, wanna make you wet, wanna make you sweat," to my earlier point. And then go find the record in its physical form.

Gheorghasbord: Bright Spots

The times, my friends, are a bit gray and gloomy. Bleak, even. It's easy to wallow in the mire. Fortunately for you, we've got a wee bit of the tonic to help see forward to a brighter time.

Janjay Lowe was born in Monrovia, the capital of Liberia (and one of two world capitals to be named for a U.S. President, at least until Trump renames Caracas). When he was seven, he was adopted by an American family and grew up in Chattanooga, TN. In 2017, he started recording music under the name Mon Rovîa, and his sound has evolved since then to encompass a wide range of influences, including rap, R&B, trap, and more recently, folk.

I first came across him via some algorithmic magic that pushed him into my Instagram feed, and I quite dug his sound. Like the Avett Brothers and Mumford and Sons before him, I was really pleased this week to hear a band I first heard in general obscurity get a little bigger, as The Current out of Minneapolis played his music over their airwaves. Bet we hear more - this dude is dope.

Speaking of obscurity, if I gave you ten guesses, could you tell me what Bødo/Glimt is? If you know me, I suppose you might, but I bet most folks couldn't. But there's a pretty good chance Bødo will earn its way into the UEFA Champions League (UCL) quarterfinals next week.

So its a soccer club. From Norway. That over the past two months has defeated Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Inter Milan (twice), and Sporting Club of Portugal. The most recent of those victories, 3-0 over Sporting in the first leg of their UCL Round of 16 match on Wednesday, leaves Bødo on the precipice. Win, draw, or lose by two or fewer in the return match in Lisbon next week and the Norwegians become the first team from their country to this far since Rosenborg in 1997.

The how is as interesting as the what. Most small clubs that face larger, more talented foes tend to bunker in, hope to steal one on the break or get a match to penalties. Bødo certainly understand their limitations, and they start with disciplined defense, but when they get the ball, they explode into the attack, blasting forward with as many as eight men. They scored three goals in wins over Sporting, City, and Inter (and then two in their second win). Dudes want to play. 

Here's some fan-centric video from the 8,700 or so that helped Bødo get past Sporting. It's the good shit.

Finally, a bit of personal news. Not entirely ready to call it a bright spot, but I suppose it's a light in a tunnel. My mother, and her mother before her, is very into genealogy. As a result, we can document our family's history in the United States from before the beginning. We're Mayflower folk, y'all.

Some of us were a bit squishy on that whole revolutionary fervor thing back in the day. My kin are New Englanders from way back, and some of them backed the mother country. Before and during the Revolutionary War, a handful of my crown-positive people packed their wagons and decamped to Nova Scotia, where they stayed for three generations or so.

On a parallel timeline, Canada was growing all up. Our paths crossed, legally, in December, when our neighbors to the north had a reckoning. For years, Canadian citizenship was limited to native-born folk and those one generation after. In December, though, all heck broke loose. The Canadian Supreme Court ruled that the previous rules were unconstitutional, and opened the door to new paths to citizenship for anyone that can prove direct Canadian lineage.

Friends, I can prove direct Canadian lineage, thanks to my Mom and hers. I don't necessarily want to avail myself of my newfound affinity for things maple leaf, but it's nice to know I have options. Been a big Gordon Lightfoot and Tragically Hip fan from way back, in case anyone's questioning my bona fides.

Here's a song about all the Gords - if Random Idiots were Canucks, they coulda written this one:

We're No. 69! Hoosiers Edition

“Alright, boys, this is the last shot we got. We're gonna run the picket fence at 'em. Jimmy, you're solo right. Everett, Merle should be open coming around the other side of that fence. Now, boys, don't get caught watchin' the paint dry.” Wilbur “Shooter” Flatch, “Hoosiers” 

Indiana University is on the short list of historic, blue-blood basketball programs. The Hoosiers were NCAA Tournament fixtures for decades under Bob Knight, winning three national championships and becoming a place where residents carry themselves as if the game was invented there. 

Angry Chair GIFfrom Angry GIFs

IU’s aura dimmed in the years since, and it’s now merely a competitive program in a quality conference. The Hoosiers are squarely on the bubble precisely because of the Big Ten’s quality, not because they’ve distinguished themselves. The conference is forecast to get nine or ten teams into the NCAA field of 68, a ticklish spot for the tenth-place team. If Indiana flames out in this week’s league tournament, it will anxiously watch several other tournaments and hope that chalk mostly holds and that no low-seed champions emerge – “bid thieves” in bracketology parlance – to eliminate opportunities for bubble teams. Even then, that might not be enough to get the Hoosiers into the dance (nor should it, I would argue). 

Recent history: Indiana has made the NCAA Tournament only twice in the past decade and finished above .500 in the Big Ten just once in that span. First-year coach Darian DeVries is the latest to attempt to elevate the program to previous heights. He had a successful run at Drake in the Missouri Valley Conference, which helped him land the head gig at West Virginia in 2024. He bolted Morgantown after just one season, replacing Mike Woodson, who was turfed after four seasons and no NCAA appearances his final two years. 

Mike Woodson Dissapointed GIFfrom Mike Woodson GIFs

Mascot/nickname profile: “Hoosiers” refers to Indiana residents or natives and was coined in 1827, according to the state historical bureau. The first written reference is believed to have been in a John Finley poem in 1833, “The Hoosier’s Nest,” after which politicians and public officials took up the name. Other theories about the nickname origin include settler-era stories that Indiana rivermen were successful brawlers who trounced or hushed opponents and became known as “hushers” and later “hoosiers.” The term might have derived from a native word for corn – hoosa – and that rivermen who transported corn and maize were known as “hoosa men” and eventually “hoosiers.” 

Home arena: Simon Skjodt [skiddit] Assembly Hall (cap. 17,222) is an on-campus venue that opened in 1971. The pricetag at the time was $26.6 million, which equates to $225 million in 2025 dollars. The arena was known simply as Assembly Hall forever, but after a $40 million donation for upgrades and renovation from Cynthia Simon Skodjt, daughter of Indiana shopping mall magnate and Pacers owner Mel Simon, the school renamed the building in 2016. The Hoosiers are 607-142 (.810 winning percentage) in the hall. 

Notable hoops alumni: Isiah Thomas, Calbert Cheaney, Eric Gordon, Steve Alford, Scott May, Victor Oladipo, Jared Jeffries, Mike Woodson, Tom and Dick Van Arsdale, OG Anunoby, Cody Zeller, Quinn Buckner, Kent Benson. 

Current season: DeVries leaned heavily into the transfer portal in his first season. The Hoosiers (18-13, 9-11 in Big Ten) generally go eight deep and seven are upperclass newcomers, led by 6-6 wing Lamar Wilkerson (21 ppg) from Sam Houston State, 6-7 forward Tucker DeVries (13.9 ppg, 5.2 rpg), the coach’s son who came with him from Drake and West Virginia, and 6-9 forward Sam Alexis (8.8 ppg, 4.9 rpg), who played on Florida’s national title team last season. They shoot (.474 FG pct) and defend (.427 defensive FG pct) reasonably well and share the ball; sixty-three percent of their buckets are assisted. 

Reasons to believe: Decent metrics. The Hoosiers are No. 37 in NCAA Net rankings, 36th in ESPN’s Basketball Power Index, No. 41 in Ken Pomeroy’s ranking and 29th in analytics guru Bart Torvik’s rankings. They have high-end wins against Purdue and Wisconsin and no bad losses. 

Reasons to fade them: Too many losses and a poor finish. IU lost five of six down the stretch, including four by double figures, to drop from decent chance for an at-large berth to its current precarious position. Hoosiers are a meh 6-13 against Q1 and Q2 opposition. It’s all well and good that their strength of schedule is 35th, according to Pomeroy, but that’s largely due to their neighborhood; their non-conference SOS is below 300. As I’ve argued previously, a team that cannot finish at least in the top half of its conference doesn’t merit a chance to play for a natty. It's happened before and will again in the future, especially if and when the field expands. Maybe DeVries can mine the transfer portal, dole out some NIL money and get the Hoosiers back into the conference’s upper tier. Not so long ago, it would have sounded ridiculous to wonder if Indiana’s basketball program could match the success of its football program.