The Definitive G:TB Women's World Cup Preview

Tomorrow morning at 3:00 am Eastern Standard Time, the 2023 FIFA Women's World Cup kicks off at Eden Park in Auckland, NZ, as the co-host Football Ferns take on Norway. For the first time in history, the women's tournament will feature 32 teams, same as the men (at least until 2026, when the men's event bloats to 48 nations). The larger field is both a sign that the women's game is growing leaps and bounds across the globe, and a harbinger of some lopsided group stage games (USA v. Vietnam, we're looking at you) as we don't yet have the same depth across the tournament.

As always, we're here to get you ready for a big event. I am a big backer of women's soccer, a supporter of the game as both a spectator and a coach. Even so, I don't claim to know as much about the global ladies' game as I do the men's, simply because it's not as accessible. Lack of expertise, however, has never really been an obstacle for us here. 

Onwards, then, with the story lines we'll be watching:

Stine Larsen, annoyed

First and foremost, a story line that we won't actually get to watch. An incredible rash of injuries has beset the women's game over the past several months, depriving us of an all-star roster of talented athletes. Very few of the elite teams in the tournament have been immune to tournament-ending knocks. A partial list of the potential difference makers who won't be in Australia/New Zealand for the tournament includes the United States' Mallory Swanson (who was in amazing form before she did her knee), Catarina Macario, and captain Becky Sauerbrunn, England's Leah Williamson, Fran Kirby, and Beth Mead (last year's Ballon d'Or runner-up), New Zealand's Katie Rood, Canadian midfielder Janine Beckie, Norway forward Stine Larsen, Dutch striker Vivianne Miedema, and France's Amadine Henry and Marie-Antoinette Katoto.

The game's growth and overall increase in quality is a big deal, and we'll see it play out during the tournament. While the United States is a clear favorite, it says here that no fewer than nine nations can legitimately hope to be the last team standing. In addition to the USWNT, Australia, Germany, England, Spain, the Netherlands, Brazil, Canada, and Japan are in with a shout. 

Zambia 3, Germany 2!

At the other end of the spectrum, eight nations are making their first-ever appearance at a World Cup, with three others in only their second trip to the finals. While most of the newcomers will struggle, at least a few will be competitive. Zambia beat Germany, 3-2 in a friendly earlier this month, while Ireland played the USWNT tough in a pair of recent friendlies, as well.

Given that we're nothing if not homers, at least when it comes to the USWNT, our team's quest for the first-ever three-peat in World Cup history is a pretty big headline. Head coach Vlatko Andonovski had some early growing pains as he took over for two-time World Cup champion Jill Ellis, not the least of which was the USWNT's semifinal loss to eventual gold medalists Canada in the 2020 Olympics. Since then, though Andonovski has blended decorated veterans like Alex Morgan, Kelley O'Hara, Julie Ertz, and Megan Rapinoe with talented newcomers like Sophia Smith, 18 year-old Alyssa Thompson, Naomi Girma, and Trinity Rodman fairly seamlessly. 

The Americans bring the deepest team to ANZ, but the absence of Sauerbrunn, in particular, brings some questions about how well the young centerback tandem of Girma and Alana Cook will play under steadily increasing tournament pressure. The U.S. will score our share of goals. How well we prevent them may tell the tale.

As the quality of the global game has increased in total, individual excellence is more distributed than ever. Here are some of the players we're focused on:

Australia's Sam Kerr is a badass. Full stop. She's one of the best goalscorers in the history of the women's game. She's tallied 63 times in 120 appearances for the Matildas, and 54 times in 67 games since 2020 for Chelsea. She's fast, physical, skilled, and relentless. And in an interesting subplot were unlikely to see in the men's game for at least a decade or two, her partner Kristie Mewis is on the USWNT roster - the two countries could meet in the final if both win their groups as expected.

Ada Hegerberg won the first-ever Ballon d'Or Féminin in 2018. The Norwegian became the Champions League all-time leading scorer in 2019. But she stopped representing her nation in international competition in 2017 in protest of inequality between Norway's men and women's national teams. She only returned to international competition last year, after sitting out the 2019 World Cup. It seems that equity isn't just an issue for the USWNT - in addition to Norway, players from Nigeria, Jamaica, France, and Brazil have spoken out about issues with their national federations. 

Marta is the all-time leader in women's World Cup goals with 17. The legendary Brazilian can become the first person to score a goal in six World Cups if she tallies down under. At 37, though, and recovering from a knee injury, she and her teammates need Debinha to be brilliant in order to make an impact in this year's event. The 31 year-old attacker scored 42 goals in 115 matches for the North Carolina Courage in NWSL before moving to the Kansas City Current this season. She'll be Brazil's most important offensive weapon.

With Swanson and Macario unavailable and Rapinoe nearing the end of her career, Trinity Rodman has the potential to make a huge impact for the USWNT. The 21 year-old winger is 5'10", blazingly fast, and both physical and technically gifted. She's just coming into her own as a professional with the Washington Spirit - she'll be a cornerstone of our nation's program for years. And yeah, if you didn't already know, she's that dude's daughter.

Alexia Putellas was almost on the list of injured stars above. The Spanish superstar and two-time Ballon d'Or winner injured her ACL while training in June 2022, causing her to miss the 2022 Euros and most of her club season with Barcelona, for whom she's scored 126 goals since 2012. She returned to the field in late April, but it's not clear yet whether she'll be back to anything close to her top form, which has earned her wide regard as the best player in the world. And in fact, there are reports today that she left Spain's training early, which casts doubt on whether she'll be fit to play against Costa Rica on Friday. It would be a gigantic shame for the game and a huge blow for Spain if she can't go.

Bunny Shaw is near and dear to me because she plays a style similar to one of the kids on the JV team I coach. When that kid (who is African-American, in addition to being built like Jamaica's Shaw - tall and strong) asked me for tips on players to watch, I turned her on to Shaw, who played for the University of Tennessee in college before joining Manchester City. Showing that kid a role model who looks and plays like her was a cool moment. Shaw was the CONCACAF Player of the Year in 2022, the first non-American to win that award. And if the Reggae Girlz are going to do anything in this tournament in a very tough group, she's gonna need to be exceptional.

Since you've made it this far, I assume you're looking for gambling advice, and I'm happy to oblige, you degenerates. 

The variance in talent makes predicting the group stages somewhat straightforward. Sure, the Netherlands could pip the USWNT for first in Group E, but both are likely to advance. I could see mini-upsets happening in Group D, where China could edge Denmark for second behind England and Group A, where co-host New Zealand may sneak past Switzerland to take second behind Norway. And Group H is clearly the most competitive, as Colombia and South Korea will battle to see who joins Germany in the knockout rounds. But for the most part, we should expect a pretty chalky group stage. Something like this:

Advancing from Group A (in order): Norway, Switzerland

Group B: Australia, Canada

Group C: Spain, Japan

Group D: England, Denmark

Group E: USA, Netherlands

Group F: Brazil, France

Group G: Sweden, Italy

Group H: Germany, South Korea

Which gives us the following Round of 16 matches:

Japan over Norway

USA over Italy

Spain over Switzerland

Netherlands over Sweden

Australia over Denmark

Brazil over Korea

England over Canada

Germany over France

Quarterfinals:

USA over Japan

Netherlands over Spain

Australia over Brazil

Germany over England

Semifinals:

USA over Netherlands

Australia over Germany

Final:

Part of me is really drawn to the idea of taking the host Matildas to upset the Americans in the final, which will be played on August 20 in Sydney. The Aussies are a sports-mad people in the best of ways, and they'll show out for their team, which is one of the reasons I like them to advance beyond their expected result. But in the end, I think the USWNT are just too deep and too talented to be denied a third consecutive World Cup title. Megan Rapinoe rides off into the sunset, taking Kelley O'Hara, Alex Morgan, Alyssa Naeher, and Julie Ertz with her as they all solidify their places in the U.S. Soccer pantheon.