Saturday, November 28, 2020

This Week in Wrenball: Back to the Future


The 2019-20 Wrens' season was a rollercoaster. It started under a cloud, the wound from Tony Shaver's unceremonious and undeserved firing still fresh. (Karma, it turns out, is still a bitch.) The Tribe lost multiple important parts from a team that was widely considered the favorite to win the CAA to transfers in the wake of Shaver's dismissal.

Dane Fischer took the job and inherited a dispirited fanbase and a decimated roster. He and his staff dug in and secured commitments from three key transfers: Andy Van Vliet, Bryce Barnes, and Tyler Hamilton came to campus to support Nathan Knight. And W&M started the season 4-0, and probably should've beaten Oklahoma in Norman. 

The rest of the non-conference schedule was a bit of a plateau, with a blowout loss to Stanford balanced by a thrashing of Old Dominion, until W&M dropped its final two pre-league games to St. Joe's and St. Francis (PA), neither powerhouses.

But those letdowns were followed by six straight wins to begin CAA play, which were followed by a 2-5 stretch that included losses to mediocre Drexel and UNCW teams. And of course, Fischer's guys rebounded to win their final five games of the season to finish with a 13-5 league record, good for the second seed in the first CAA Tournament to be played in Washington, DC.

Where the Tribe lost to an Elon team it beat twice during the regular season, including 10 days prior to the first round of the tournament. That loss on March 8 was the last time I was in a sports arena in 2020.

Well done, @wmsportsblog
Dane Fischer, regardless of the circumstances of his hire, can really coach. Nathan Knight is the best player in W&M history. The first of those will be put to the test this season. The second is the reason.

Knight's draft-day signing by the Atlanta Hawks makes three W&M players in five years inking deals with NBA teams (Marcus Thornton and Daniel Dixon both had deals with the Boston Celtics.) His departure, along with the 7'0" Van Vliet, Barnes, and Hamilton change both W&M's roster and Fischer's options at both ends of the court.

The Tribe head man will have to figure out how to replace 54% of his team's minutes, 64.2% of its made field goals, 71.6% of its made free throws, 68.2% of its rebounds, 57.9% of its assists, 85.2% of its blocks, 68.8% of its steals, and 63.3% of its points. The 2020-21 Tribe has one senior who played more than 9 minutes last year. That player, Luke Loewe, made huge strides last season as a complimentary option, hitting 43.9% of his threes and scoring 10.7 ppg, while making the CAA's All-Defensive team. It remains a very open question whether Loewe can be as productive while playing a more central role offensively.

For this half-assed blogger's money, the key to whether the Tribe will live down to preseason predictions (the league's coaches and nearly every observer tap W&M to finish 10th of 10 teams in the CAA) is whether Thornton Scott can stay healthy and produce at a different level. Scott has flashed impressive skill at times during his first two seasons in green and gold, but he only played 19 games last season, and various injuries limited him to 7.3 ppg. Even with the limited playing time, Scott was second on the team in assists, averaging more than four per game.

Thornton Scott, the key
Quinn Blair and Miguel Ayesa didn't start a single game between them, and averaged 4.8 and 4.6 ppg, respectively. Blair's a grinder, and Ayesa can shoot it, but asking them to make a big leap may well be a question we don't want answered.

Incoming freshman Yuri Covington (a touted 6'1" point guard), Jake Milkereit (6'5" wing), Connor Kochera (6'5" guard) and redshirt frosh Ben Wight (6'9" forward/center) will all likely get a chance to earn significant minutes. At least two of them have to be big contributors for the Tribe to be anything more than bad.

With only three players 6'7" or taller, the Tribe's ability to protect the rim and get to the glass will change dramatically. There are multiple potential lineup combinations for Fischer that will see five players all around 6'5" on the floor, running interchangeable offensive and defensive concepts. If 2019-20 was the story of twin towers and team chemistry, 2020-21 will be very much a test of Dane Fischer's chops.

Says here that anything better than 10 wins in the Wrens' 26 scheduled games would be impressive. Also says here that playing more than half of those 26 games might constitute good fortune. I'm afraid that Nathan Knight's professional contract may well be the highlight of the season for Tribe fans.

W&M kicks off the season at ODU this evening. Tribe thumped the Monarchs by 17 last year. Tribe will not thump the Monarchs by 17 this year.

42 comments:

rootsminer said...

Rob, your commitment to keeping us informed about Tribe Hoops is....impressive?

Whitney said...

The top 4 headlines on the ESPN app at the moment are pandemic-related. I think the prognostication most likely to play out is the one where you said that they’ll be lucky to play more than half their games.

rootsminer said...

It sure feels like a whole lot of houses of cards are about to tumble.

zman said...

About 1500-2000 people died daily from covid-19 over the past two weeks. That's about 15-20 times more than the number of people who die in car accidents daily.

zman said...

In other news, what are the odds that Tyson/Jones will be fun to watch? I assume it will not be.

TR said...

The networks want sports to continue. The fans want it, the players want it, the owners want it (for pro sports), and the athletic programs want it (for college sports).

They will absolutely continue playing.

Mark said...

Kyle Pitts is the best player in America. He should win the Heisman. He won’t but he should.

Whitney said...

In the meantime, the MLB network is airing a whole lot of Ken Burns’ 1994 Baseball documentary. I remember watching some of it whilst living with rob in Arlington back then. It holds up incredibly well, not surprisingly. While cleaning up around the house today I’ve caught the end of the Babe’s career and the start of DiMaggio’s, Bob Feller and Dizzy Dean and Carl Hubbell, great coverage of Negro League tales, and now Hank Greenberg. Ted Williams is surely right around the corner. Even apart from the stars, the stories and factoids are terrific. I just learned that the All-Star Game was founded as a ploy from desperate owners in the Depression to make a few bucks.

Whitney said...

Oh shit. And Lou Gehrig’s speech. Still wells me up.

TR said...

Who’s the better SEC football player: Smoke Monday or Kavosiey Smoke?

rob said...

rootsy, i'm playing the long game to set up my retirement side gig as the tribe's geriatric hype man

zman said...

Do you aspire to be like Bundini Brown or more like Flavor Flav?

rob said...

that's a hell of a question.

Mark said...

Just bought and put up our Christmas tree. Will need to let it settle a bit before we decorate it but the oldest is flying back to NJ tonight so the wife needed a little family Christmas activity.

rob said...

just watched the maradona documentary. it's remarkable. from the age of 15, he carried the weight of his family, his cities, and his country on his back. at the end, i mostly felt sorry for him.

rob said...

tribe down 7 at the half. three freshman in the starting lineup, and no sign of thornton scott. ominous.

rob said...

it appears that the nfl is going to make the broncos play tomorrow's game against the saints with no quarterback, as all 4 denver qbs are sidelined with covid exposure. nothing to see here.

Mark said...

The Maradona doc is great. Also great, the cheerwine bbq sauce I dipped my fries in tonight while enjoying some beers at a local brewery’s beer garden.

Mark said...

Also, as much as I’m enjoying Florida having a good team and a great offense, well, I think Alabama is going to kick their ass in the SEC Championship Game.

rob said...

hold up. you said cheerwine bbq sauce.

rob said...

tribe lose, 86-78. respectable. connor kochera scores 19 in his college debut. makes 6-7 threes. luke loewe has 10 assists and 16 points. quinn blair gets 10 boards. 15 turnovers didn't help.

Mark said...

Yes I did, Rob, and I’m not a big bbq sauce guy. I believe truly good bbq stands on its own. But this was some good shit.

Related-ish: The list of great WRs Alabama has put out over the last decade is stunning. Devonta Smith might be my favorite. Not the biggest, fastest but so damn good at all the little things.

Mark said...

The weather is so bad in College Station that LSU might actually have a shot.

Mark said...

Nope. A&M gave LSU multiple shots. They suck way to much to take advantage though.

Jamboni said...

Solely viewing the ~2 minutes of highlights, the Jones/Tyson fight was not an abject joke/disaster. The fighters looked fairly competent and acquitted themselves decently. It's been several years but both fighters still looked like themselves, stylistically.

I am like a week+ late but wanted to provide my full support of Terrence Crawford deploying Chaka Khan's "Ain't Nobody". I've always liked the use of an entrance song that (i) reinforces the fighter's greatness while also conveying that they don't need traditional a "pump me up" type of song to get ready to fight. It's the ultimate baller move for boxing. "No head games needed, I'm the best". Early in his career before his losses to Brewster and Sanders, Wladimir Klitschko used "Simply the Best" by Tina Turner. Same Concept.

Added bonus, every time I hear that CK song it reminds me of the montage in Breakin'.

zman said...

The use of romanette (i) but not (ii) is tremendously Gheorghe. Right out of the style guide. Well done.

rob said...

disturbance in the force this morning, as david prowse passed away

TR said...

Big Man U rally today! They were down two to nil at the half, but tallied three in the second half. Edinson Cavani is a bad bad man. Dude came on at halftime and had two goals and an assist.

Wide open Premier League season so far.

rob said...

cavani is lethal. hard to understand why he doesn't start every match.

T.J. said...

Over the course of Friday and Saturday we watched 19 episodes of Killing Eve. Max binging achievement unlocked

rootsminer said...

Is that a Bill O’Reilly show about male dominance?

Whitney said...

Speaking of lethal, the lame duck administration is trying to execute as many people as possible before its time is up. I just watched the HBO doc “Crazy, Not Insane,” and it’s troubling in lots of ways. The nature of mental illness and so many conditions that take away rational choice is perplexing. The truly horrific crimes that befell many of the people that go on to become today’s monsters and the dissociative identity disorder and other brain damage-like effect that they caused... well, it takes a deep, determined, intelligent investigation of so many factors. And nobody in this administration has the cognition or the conscience for such things.

A related op-ed: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/trump-pushes-an-unprecedented-and-unjust-wave-of-executions/2020/11/26/e8d06606-2f59-11eb-bae0-50bb17126614_story.html

To Mr. Trump and Mr. Barr: no matter people you murder, it won’t fill the holes in your souls.

Now back to your regularly scheduled dipshittery.

rootsminer said...

No arguments here Whit.

If any of you Gheorghies need some rootsy tunes to go with your Sunday evening libations, you can find my 7pm live stream here.

rob said...

biden white house press secretary is jen psaki, graduate of the college of william & mary

Mark said...

Killing Eve is my favorite show of many I watched in 2020. It’s emotional, graphic, exhilarating and filled with great music and cinematography. My strongest white.

rob said...

rootsy's live in 5, in case you want some americana with your dinner

Whitney said...

A little Tennessee Jed! Nice!

rob said...

rootsy teaching musical history

Whitney said...

Whitey's getting a little posthumous love from Rootsy

Whitney said...

Jen Psaki was a swimmer for W&M. Coincidentally.

rob said...

don't fuck with a swimmer, or something?

rootsminer said...

Appreciate a few of you tuning in. Was a fun, sort of nerve racking little exercise. My younger kid said he liked the one by the blind convict doing life for axe murder.