Wednesday, October 24, 2012

Now it's time for our regularly scheduled angry Bills-related rant

It's time for me to let loose a profanity laden barrage about the Buffalo Bills' wretchedness. It will be generally the same as all my previous tirades. Simply put, they have no run defense whatsoever and until they fix that problem they will continue to watch the playoffs from the comforts of the Niagara Falls area.

Through 7 games the Bills have allowed 1238 rushing yards (204 more than the second-worst team, TR's Jest) which projects to 2830 over a full season, good for 12th most of all time. The Bills allow defenders to rush for 6.0 yards at a clip (0.8 more than the second-worst team, the Falcons), which is the 2nd most of all time (among the 70 teams that allowed >2500 yards in a season -- there's some weird glitch with pro-football-reference.com's database of WWII-era teams that makes it look like they gave up 40+ ypc so I just limited my search to teams that allowed over 2500 yards which is just over 150 yards per game in a 16 game season, i.e., teams with shitty run defenses). They are historically bad at stopping the run. Indeed, the last time a team allowed >2500 yards on the season and 6 or more yards per carry for a full season was 1950. Their historic incompetence in this regard is remarkable when put in context: the 1950 Baltimore Colts allowed 6.22 yards per carry over 12 games, and the next worst team over a full season is the 1961 Minnesota Vikings at 5.41. So the Bills are over 0.5 yards per carry worse than the second worst team in the history of the NFL in this particular metric. That means that the Bills' opponents gain over one-and-a-half-feet -- two Hungarian peckerlengths! -- per carry more than they would if they faced the second-worst run defense of all time.

Maybe it isn't fair to compare the 2012 Bills to teams from the past. Pro-football-reference.com provides EXP statistics to illustrate the number of points contributed by an offense or defense, and they break it down further by pass and run. Only 10 teams this season have a negative run defense EXP, probably because it's so easy to throw these days that everyone eschews the ground game (by contrast, only 6 teams have a positive EXP against the pass). Only two teams with negative run defense EXP are in the double digits: the Colts (-11.99) and the Bills (-52.65). So the Bills' run defense is responsible for giving up more than 40 points compared to the second worst run defense in the league. They're awful.

The defense gave up 1201 yards of offense over a two game span against the Patriots and Niners. The Bills D popped Brandon Bolden's 100-yard cherry, and gave up another 100+ rushing yards to Stevan Ridley. They even gave up a rushing TD to Tom Brady. In short, Buffalo's rushing defense gave it up so easy to the Patriots that Belichick now refers to the Bills as "house box." Pretty crass I think.

At least they were balanced against San Fran, giving up 310 through the air and 311 on the ground. Alex Smith passed for 303 yards, his third-highest single game total and only the third 300-yard game of his career. His passer rating (a near-perfect 156.2) and yards per attempt (12.63) were career bests.

Just this weekend, they gave up 195 yards on 18 carries to whatever's left of Chris Johnson. That's 10.83 yards per carry, the second highest single-game average of his career! Hell, that's the third most rushing yardage he's ever garnered in one game! And he's all washed up!

So I reiterate that the Bills' rush defense is awful.

And it will continue to be awful in two weeks after they get off the bye. First they face Arian Foster in Houston, Stevan Ridley in Foxboro, then Reggie Bush in Buffalo on a Thursday. After that they get a marginal respite -- Donald Brown in Indy -- before facing MJD (if he's healthy), Steven Jackson, and Marshawn "Beast Mode" Lynch all in Buffalo. By then they should be 5-9 and ready to pack it in for some more Bush in Miami and Tim Tebow/Shonn Greene at home.

I have no solutions to this problem. The Bills stocked up on defense in the draft and free agency, bringing in 8 new starters since 2010 including Marcell Dareus in last year's draft and Mario Williams in this past offseason's free agency period. I thought they would have a top 5 defensive line. They drafted a corner this year and all the talking heads loved the pick, making me believe that the pass defense would improve. They brought in Dave Wannstedt who despite his lopsided stache has presided over many respectible, and a few excellent, defenses over a 17 year NFL career. They did many of the things one would think to do when looking to improve a defense. When discussing the Bills' chances with TR this past preseason, I ticked through my laundry list of all the positive changes the team made, but cut myself mid-sentence before drawing a conclusion. TR looked at me and said "It's ok, you can say it." And then I said "I think the Bills will be good this year."



Accordingly, I'm resigned to another season of double-digit losses. And I've decided to look for a silver lining. I could declare myself a free agent fan and start rooting for the Redskins, but I fear that I would lose my identity without all a Bills fan's self-loathing. Instead I'm going to root for a new level of Billsian futility: over the past three years Buffalo gave up 7,439 rushing yards. Throw in this year's 1,238 and they are only 1,323 yards away from 10,000 in 4 years ... with 9 games left! That's only 147 yards/game, well below their 176.9 yards/game average to date this year! They could improveby 30 yards a game and still get to 10,000 yards surrendered during Obama's first term! I don't know if any defense has allowed an average of 2,500 rushing yards over 4 years but it has to be a record. Who else but the Bills would allow themselves to maintain such a glaring deficiency for such a long period of time?

So that's what I'm rooting for -- another 1,323 yards on the ground. That and a funny, grammatically accurate picture for this post. I guess I'll have to take what I can get.

40 comments:

  1. Nice job Z.

    Went to see the Old 97's last night due to the power of the tweet machine. I was not even aware that they were in town until they tweeted about their arrival. Technology is gud.

    The show was fantastic and based on Clarence' s previous comment about only being in Williamsburg for 24 hours, if he goes to the Chapel Hill show on sat night good times will be had.

    Finally, as previously mentioned, I am loving the implosion of the Miami Marlins Baseball Club. My hatred runs deep. The cherry on top would be an indictment for Jeffrey Loria, which is not that far fetched given the SEC's ongoing investigations. That is what I am asking Santa for this year.

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  2. That is weird. It seems like their DL should be at least decent. Announcers always say that Kyle Williams is one of the most underrated players in the "National Football League". Dareus was a high pick and Mario was good in Houston. Can't say I know much about the LBs other than Barnett.

    On the plus side (for me), I started both Buffalo RBs this week and won my fantasy game.

    I guess you can aspire to drafting Clowney in 2014.

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  3. I love the Marlins. Fun couple.

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  4. Zman, you're gonna stay a Bills fan, as well you should, watching Buffalo '66 every January after the Bills are eliminated . . . but if you defected, we're down a man (at least half) in the fan base and this is what's rejoining the team:

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/dc-sports-bog/wp/2012/10/23/the-story-of-chris-cooleys-comeback-as-told-by-cooley

    “I’ve had so many people text, ‘How’d the physical go?’ Literally, you go into the training room, and the doctor’s like ‘How are you feeling, man? Good? Good. Okay, you passed.’

    Literally, I have text correspondence trying to negotiate a case of beer into my contract. They wouldn’t do it. I wanted it in writing so much."

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  5. we should rename this blog gheorghe/cooley:the blog.

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  6. How are the Falcons the 2nd worst defense at yards allowed per carry and 6-0? Y'all explain please.

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  7. Math in Georgia is . . . fuzzy.

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  8. No-research guess answers:

    1) Atlanta has played 2 great running QBs. QBs tend to have a higher YPC than RBs

    2) Atlanta has been up in their games and willing to concede rushing yards

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  9. The Colts won a SB in 2006 with the 3rd worst defense of all time in terms of ypc, and 16th worst in terms of rushing yards allowed.

    And Jerry is correct on both points. Atlanta has faced a below-average number of rushing attempts, probably because they are ahead and other teams are forced to throw, putting them in a nickel or something like that which allows them to give up more per run. We should get Barnwell on this.

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  10. Cooley is quite likeable and Gheorghe but I couldn't become a Skins fan after SB XXVI and experiences living in Virginia immediately thereafter.

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  11. We're going to need more people to join the fantasy basketball league. Unlike the number of walls for an orphanage, 4 is not enough.

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  12. Yahoo Fantasy NBA...

    League Name: Great Wall of Chinablock III
    League ID# 32548
    Password: gheorghe77

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  13. Understandable, Z.

    Coincidentally, Sports Illustrated's Dr. Z predicted before the 1991 football season that the Bills and Redskins would meet in the Super Bowl. (He said the Bills would win, of course.)

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  14. In news relevant to only TR and me, the NY Times is reporting that the Islanders are moving to Brooklyn in 2015. Maybe by then the NHL will have solved their labor issues.

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  15. The Brooklyn Islanders? Brooklyn is indeed on the same island as Long Island but I don't think of Brooklynites as Islanders. Maybe they will become the Brooklyn Hustle, which is a very NHL name.

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  16. haven't read this yet, but i used to hate france, and now -- after seeing that trampoline bridge -- i want to move there.

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  17. Mario Williams reads G:TB.

    http://espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8546133/mario-williams-buffalo-bills-considering-wrist-surgery-visiting-specialist-report

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  18. so nyc is getting a snow'reaster this weekend? take lots of pictures, boys. and batten down the hatches.

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  19. Why people love Keith Richards:

    Richards is also drinking significantly less. "I don't get ridiculous," he says. "I like a glass of wine with my meal and everything, but I've given up sort of waking up and having a drink, you know? I gave up smack, I can give up anything. No big deal to me, I do it to impress other people. But if they come up with a great new drug, I'll be the first one on it, believe me."

    (from Rolling Stone)

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  20. TJ- send me an invite for the yahoo league. I know you already did but I can't find it now. I'm too busy being an awesome Dad and carving pumpkins and shit.

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  21. And I tried the info you posted on here and it didn't work. User error, I'm sure.

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  22. Invite sent to your hotmail, Mark

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  23. I love that Mr. KQ could figure out how to sign up based on the info in the earlier comment, but Mark has to be individually emailed the info to sign up.

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  24. also, "Smokin a Bol"...that is a terrific fantasy team name. kudos.

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  25. I also carved the shit out that pumpkin tonight. And my infant's Princess Leia costume (complete with knit hat for the side buns) came in today. We're about to dominate Halloween.

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  26. will you be going as Lando?

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  27. "Smokin a Bol" is ready to dominate! In a Yahoo Mock Draft right now. Are Calbert Chaney, Tim Legler, Matt Fish, and Tracey Murray still available?

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  28. If you get the Tennis Channel you should watch right now. Federer is playing what is basically a home game -- the Swiss indoor championship. And he's putting on a serve and volley clinic just for the hell of it.

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  29. I know my Star Wars characters cold.

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  30. Kung Fu Panda putting on an epic display tonight

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  31. I look forward to the Thursday Night Fail. Prime time.

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  32. jerome! proud buffalovillian represent.

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  33. We have 7 in the NBA league currently. Yahoo is a real pain in the ass and demands an even number of teams, so either 1 more GTBer or 3 more GTBers need to join.

    I believe I have sent invites to everyone that frequents this space.

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  34. If you really need an eighth team, I'll join but I won't keep up with it. So it'll be like a bye week for everyone.

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  35. I'm going to join TJ--just haven't had time to fill out the info yet.

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  36. I think it was so awesome until that last scream at the end.... Amanda Vanderpool

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