Bettor Think Twice

I’ve never gambled much. NCAA basketball tournament pools. Betting the ponies on occasional trips to the track. Several casino outings with friends through the years. That’s about it. 

I didn’t grow up around gambling or people who did. Casinos and sports books were road trips. I never made a lot of money, so I didn’t feel like I had enough to squander. And that’s what it felt like I would have done, since gambling requires knowledge and a mindset that I don’t possess. 

Which brings me to my latest exercise. A buddy who lives on Maryland’s Eastern Shore gambles. He has an account with at least one of the online sports books that have cropped up in recent years. A raceway and casino with a sports book in Harrington, Del., is a short hop away. Starting this month, Maryland will permit online sports gaming, so that he may now bet Boise State to cover from the comfort of his commode. 

In addition to his sports book betting, he also participates in a weekly NFL pool at a local saloon. Approximately 60 people, $20 entry fee, eight-game card with point spreads, Monday night game point total tiebreaker. Winner gets $800, rest of the money goes into a kitty for a season-ending party. 

He said his picks had been dismal all season, said, why don’t you pick for me this week? He said he’d split with me if I won. I said, sure, why not, though I’d likely be terrible, as I’ve never bothered with it. He said, you can’t be any worse than me. 

I dove in. Statistical research. Matchup strengths. Teams’ ATS (against the spread) home and away. Trends. Injury reports. Perused a bunch of sites with picks, sifted through various recommendations. He thought my picks and explanations reasonable. He submitted them without change. Spoiler: I’m not building up to a dramatic windfall conclusion. I went 4-4. 

He said he likely would have done no better, and my taking over pool picks permitted him more time to dive into sports book action and various single games, parlays and multi-team teasers that he enjoys. Upshot is that he sent me the pool card the subsequent three weeks. Subject line in his email was “your mediocrity is not lost on the committee.” 

I researched and reasoned as best I can and sent picks. He’s made a few changes, but mostly gone with my picks. I’ve gone 16-13-3 the past four weeks. The curious part of all this is that I’m suddenly more interested in results. I check scores more frequently, and a couple of weeks back, even though I had ZERO dollars riding on outcomes, I was legit peeved at the Dolphins, Vikings and Rams for scuffling along and general ineptitude and not covering. I was annoyed that the Bears allowed the dreadful Lions to score three touchdowns in the last 12 minutes. Makes no sense. 

Several of you may recall that I wrote in this space recently that I had become increasingly contemptuous of and disinterested in the NFL for various reasons. Now, here I am parsing betting lines and researching teams and calling up gamecasts on Sundays. I’m either compartmentalizing or engaging in some A-level rationalization. Yes, the league needs a reckoning and a good scrubbing, but the competition is compelling and entertaining. Whatever gets you through, Scooter. 

My buddy thinks I ought to open an online account and dabble in it. Focus on the games of my choice, and don’t try to discern what Jacksonville or the Raiders are going to do in an over-bloated pool. “Never too late to ruin your life,” he said. 

Maybe I see it as a thought exercise. Objectively, after watching games for 50 years and covering them professionally for 35, I know that any-damn-thing can happen and predicting outcomes is folly, particularly when you factor in point spreads. I also know that I have neither the experience nor information that the “sharps” do. I wouldn’t be as dispassionate about winning and especially losing money as necessary. I’d like to think, however, that because I have an idea about what I’m watching and a ton of information at my disposal, that I can make reasonable choices and be moderately successful. 

But each week the answer is, naaaaah.