College Football's Next Chapter

As we put a bow on the Scrappin’ Harbaughs’ kneecapping of Washington for the national championship, we might also bid a fond farewell to major college football as we know it. They’ll still play the games, we’ll still watch, and the circus will continue. Given the changes afoot, however, the 2023 season feels like the end of an era as the sport lumbers toward whatever’s next. 

Megafootballfauna!

Mega-conferences [NOTE FROM YOUR TINY DICTATOR, WHO MAY OR MAY NOT BE A BIT TIPSY: I prefer to read this as megafauna, which I find an excellent word], the 12-team playoff, and players profiting from their abilities are upon us. Any of those measures alone create a seismic shift. That all three arrive together while college athletics’ leadership essentially draws “HELP” in super-sized letters on the beach in hopes of a rescue flyover is its own level of entertainment. 

Athletes making money from their name, image and likeness (NIL) has been in place for a couple of years now, as schools figure out how to use it as recruiting tool and oversee it without calling their new assistant athletic directors “bagmen.” If anything, NIL has been bolstered by the other two components. 

When the Southeastern Conference poached Texas and Oklahoma from the Big 12, and the Big Ten countered by grabbing Southern Cal and UCLA from the Pac-12, it kicked off a round of realignment that exposed the lie that major college athletics’ primary concern is the welfare of the athletes, unless frequent-flier miles and Marriott points are now considered benefits. The Big Ten is about to be an 18-team coast-to-coast league, the SEC a 16-team outfit that stretches from central Texas and Oklahoma to Florida. The two wealthiest conferences, in terms of TV contracts and interest, are about to become even wealthier once the upcoming round of TV negotiations is complete. Meanwhile, the Big 12 is up to 16 schools after cherry-picking from the underserved and then snatching a quartet of Pac-12 refugees, and the last-at-the-table ACC is also up to 18 schools and bi-coastal. 

Couple that movement with the 12-team playoff, and it makes for a dandy cash grab. The four-team playoff structure was worth $400-600 million per year for the decade it was in place. The new, expanded setup is estimated to be worth approximately $1-1.2 billion per year. Under the old system, conferences received $6 million for each semifinalist and $4 million for each team in one of the rotating non-playoff major bowls (Cotton, Fiesta, Peach). Expect those payouts to increase substantially under the 12-team field. 

All that lettuce, and still there are plenty of folks who want to restrict the kids who attract the eyeballs and cash. At this point, arguments for the traditional model of college athletics should come with a laugh track, though it does provide a valuable lesson for the kids: that the adults who control the means and venues and distribution won’t cede a dime without a hissy fit, and they won’t hesitate to use any tool in the shed. 

Education and nostalgia and sports can make for darn fine cover, which Eugene Debs and Mother Jones and Marvin Miller would recognize. But we digress. The combination of conference consolidation and the fact that an actual playoff field was imminent made this season feel a little like a missed opportunity. Consider what the 12-team field would have looked like this season: three SEC teams (Alabama, Georgia, Missouri), three Big Ten teams (Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State), two from the Pac-12 (Washington, Oregon), champs from the Big 12 (Texas) and ACC (Florida State), and the Group of Five choice (Liberty). Argue among yourselves about the 12th team. 

A potentially terrific tournament strictly from a competitive standpoint, but also a fairly broad representation of the sport. Future tournaments may be similarly competitive but something will be lost. One of the beauties of college football, of college athletics in general, is its unique fingerprint, both individually and regionally. It’s what separates the game from the more homogenized NFL. 

Going forward, programs will still have their own personalities and loyalties, but consolidation and the elimination of an entire conference (RIP, Pac-12) erodes some of the individuality. When programs are grouped under increasingly large umbrellas, it begins to feel like watching branch offices of Amazon and Microsoft rather than pure athletic competition (if the West Coast programs are somehow cowed into an Iowafication of their style of play, the Big Ten offices will receive a sternly worded letter; just sayin’).  

Now, if all this nudges college football toward separate governance and scheduling and permits athletic departments to return to more regionally sensible schedules for all other sports, then the upheaval may have been worth it. Good or bad in total no one can say. Though the fact that in this revolution no skulls were cracked probably counts as a win.